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Decoder with Nilay Patel

Return-to-office mandates are more than "backdoor layoffs"

Thu, 07 Nov 2024

Description

Today, we’re talking about work. Specifically, where we work, how our expectations of working remotely were radically changed by the pandemic, and how those expectations feel like they’re on the verge of changing yet again. For many people, the pendulum has swung wildly between working fully remote and now a push to return to the office from their bosses, and there are a lot of theories about what might really be motivating big companies to try and bring everyone back. To explain it, I caught up with two experts on the subject: Stephan Meier, a professor of business strategy at Columbia Business School, and Jessica Kriegel, the chief strategy officer at workplace culture consultancy Culture Partners. We dive into what’s been happening to the nature of work today, and whether Amazon, which just announced a major return to the office five days a week, is part of a bigger trend.  Links: Amazon is making its employees come back to the office five days a week | The Verge Amazon CEO denies 5-day office mandate is a ‘backdoor layoff’ | CNBC Bob Iger tells Disney employees they must return to the office four days a week | CNBC A quarter of bosses admit return-to-office mandates meant to make staff quit | Fortune More Americans now prefer hybrid over fully remote work, survey finds | Axios Google tells staff: stay productive and we’ll stay flexible | BI The list of major companies requiring employees to return to the office | BI Thinking Inside the Box: Why Virtual Meetings Generate Fewer Ideas | Columbia Duolingo CEO Luis von Ahn wants you addicted to learning | Decoder Sundar Pichai on managing Google through the pandemic | Vergecast Credits:  Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Our producers are Kate Cox and Nick Statt. Our editor is Callie Wright. Our supervising producer is Liam James. The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Transcription

0.71 - 11.538 Stephan Meier

Support for this episode comes from AWS. AWS Generative AI gives you the tools to power your business forward with the security and speed of the world's most experienced cloud.

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14.84 - 32.106 Nilay Patel

Hello and welcome to Decoder. I'm Nilay Patel, Editor-in-Chief of The Verge, and Decoder is my show about big ideas and other props. Today we're talking about work, specifically where we work, how our expectations of working remotely were radically changed by the pandemic, and how those expectations feel like they're on the verge of changing yet again.

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33.027 - 45.153 Nilay Patel

For many people, the pendulum has swung wildly between working fully remote and now a push to return to office from their bosses. And there are a lot of theories about what might be motivating big companies to try and bring everyone back.

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46.033 - 63.522 Nilay Patel

Here on Decoder, I've talked to lots of CEOs about the benefits of working fully remote versus hybrid or having everyone back in the office over the past several years. And I've heard the full spectrum of responses. Some executives are adamant that people need to be in the office and others are equally adamant that fully remote is the way to go.

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64.002 - 82.119 Nilay Patel

We'll play some of those answers for you in this episode so you can get a sense of the enormous range of opinions here. If you look at the surveys, it's basically 50-50. Quite a lot of people want to work remotely, and they can be pretty loud online. But there are a lot of people, who are often quieter, who want to go back to the office for pretty good reasons.

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82.78 - 92.849 Nilay Patel

Some folks just don't have the space to work at home, or they're simply tired of making video calls in sweatpants all day and never really leaving the house. I know some people who really like being able to just leave work at the office when they head home from the day.

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93.189 - 110.097 Nilay Patel

And I've heard from a lot of younger people who are struggling to get face time with the more senior and experienced people at their companies in order to build relationships and grow their networks. The messy middle of all this is what quite a few companies have settled on. Hybrid work. Which allows some people to be in the office while others work remotely. This can work.

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110.157 - 125.125 Nilay Patel

This is how The Verge runs, and I quite like it. But it's not perfect. Like so many people who work in a hybrid environment, there are days where I go into a mostly empty office and then sit on a video call. And then there are days where I realize I'm the only one at home because everyone else has gone into the office.

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125.985 - 142.987 Nilay Patel

Figuring out how to make hybrid work is a long-term cultural project that we only really started in 2020. And while there are some obvious benefits, it's not clear if anyone's really cracked it in a way that scales across different kinds of companies. And now some companies have decided that the effort just isn't worth it.

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143.447 - 149.15 Nilay Patel

In September, Amazon mandated that all employees have to return to the office for five days a week starting in January.

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149.99 - 169.049 Nilay Patel

In the memo announcing the change, CEO Andy Jassy argued that the company had observed that it's easier to learn, model, practice, and strengthen our culture, that collaborating, brainstorming, and inventing are simpler and more effective, and that teams tend to be better connected to one another when everyone was in the office. And Amazon isn't alone wanting employees back at their desks.

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169.65 - 183.127 Nilay Patel

Companies like Disney and Salesforce have made similar arguments in pushing for employees to come back to the office for at least four days a week. Apple has been steadily pressuring people to come back to the office for a while now. That beautiful spaceship office in Cupertino wasn't built to stay empty.

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184.54 - 203.975 Nilay Patel

But is the return to office really about building company culture and being more creative and productive? I have to tell you, there's a huge chunk of the Verge and Decoder audience that is absolutely convinced that any return to office announcement is actually just a layoff in disguise. We get emails and comments making this case every time one of these moves is announced.

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204.756 - 225.638 Nilay Patel

Jassy even addressed this directly just a few days ago in an All Hands meeting. Responding to claims that the return to work mandate is a, quote, backdoor layoff, he told employees that that is simply not true. We'll come back to that later on. So I wanted to know what's going on and what the real reasons behind return to office might be. And honestly, where this is all going next.

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226.67 - 244.776 Nilay Patel

To explain it, I caught up with two experts on the subject, Stephen Meyer, a professor of business strategy at Columbia Business School, and Jessica Kriegel, the chief strategy officer at workplace culture consultancy, Culture Partners. We dove into what's been happening to the nature of work today, and you'll hear both of them lay out some of the key reasons behind the return to office push.

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245.796 - 279.961 Nilay Patel

We also tried to figure out if Amazon is just an outlier, or, as you'll hear Jessica say, the tip of the spear in what could be something much bigger. Okay, return to office and what it's really all about. Here we go. Let's start by zooming out for a bit. The pandemic dramatically changed office culture in the beginning of 2020. We put our laptops in the stack of books.

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280.021 - 293.633 Nilay Patel

We bought the Logitech webcam, or at least we tried to buy a Logitech webcam, and we adjusted. It was hard. It was not even really that long ago. Here at The Verge, we went full remote. And apart from a few of us that sometimes go into our New York office, we haven't really gone back.

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294.594 - 312.406 Nilay Patel

But fast forward a few years after the pandemic lockdowns lifted, and a lot of companies were really yearning for a return to normal. In quick succession, Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all announced that employees had to stop moving around, settle in a big city with a local office, and be at their desks for something like three days a week, with a lot of flexibility and exceptions.

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313.186 - 331.965 Nilay Patel

And all along, Amazon has been moving towards a full return to office. The company had a flexible policy it put in place in 2021, where managers could mostly decide how and under what circumstances teams could work remotely. But in 2023, the company went hybrid, requiring people to come in three days a week. And now in 2024, Amazon is back at five days a week in the office.

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332.506 - 351.549 Nilay Patel

But how has all of this played out across the workforce? Both Stephan and Jessica told me that remote work, which made up about 5% of how U.S. employees spent their work days before the pandemic, jumped to nearly 70% in 2020. Since that peak, however, it has been dropping fast, and it's plateaued now that hybrid has become the norm. Here's Jessica.

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352.205 - 378.746 Jessica Kriegel

I think 30% of people were working in some hybrid environment last year, and we had plateaued in that return to office trend post-COVID, but now that plateau is starting to move again. So Amazon is the tip of the spear, and other organizations are following. So I really think this is going to be the 2025 workplace trend, is getting everyone back in the office. And it's not just back in the office.

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378.826 - 402.299 Jessica Kriegel

It's back in the office full-time. It's five days a week. It's sitting in assigned seats. And the problem that I see with that is that you've got people who are being forced to commute, forced to sit in uncomfortable clothes in a cubicle and deal with the cafeteria food or whatever it is, when they've enjoyed a different way for the last few years.

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402.892 - 413.256 Nilay Patel

When I talked to Stefan, he was also pretty unconvinced that this is going to pan out well for employers. And he agreed that Amazon's mandate does seem to be a major volley in something he's calling the war for the return to office.

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413.876 - 439.954 Bob Iger

I don't think it actually the numbers change that much, but somehow the rhetoric. Is this, as I sometimes call like this war for return to the office, which on one hand leaders who are like some, for whatever reason, want like people back and a lot of employees who don't want to go back at definitely not five days a week. Are the executives winning on that front?

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440.695 - 451.199 Bob Iger

I personally don't think they will. In the end, because hybrid is, in my view, the future, and if done right, it will be successful.

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451.759 - 468.622 Nilay Patel

But why do we have to go back to the office? That question, it turns out, is pretty complicated. Because there are the stated reasons, what a company will put in a press release, and there are what you might call the implicit reasons, the kind of conventional wisdom we all think is true. Those overlap quite a bit in sometimes pretty obvious ways. We've heard them before.

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469.226 - 487.714 Jessica Kriegel

The claim is always we are, quote, losing our culture, which I don't even know what that means. As a culture expert, I have no idea what losing a culture is or how that would manifest because it's a total make-believe cliche idea that is an excuse, right? What I think they mean is we don't know how to manage people remotely.

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488.094 - 508.633 Jessica Kriegel

And so therefore, we're just going to go back into the office because it was easier that way. But they're saying they're losing their culture. They're saying that they need to be more collaborative and they need to create the moments of impact where people run into each other in the hallway at the water cooler, where they can sit in a break room and collaborate about an idea.

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508.693 - 520.579 Jessica Kriegel

They can stand in front of a whiteboard and doodle things on the wall and be more creative and as a result, be better at their jobs. That's what they're saying, that people will be better at their jobs if they come into the office five days a week.

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521.764 - 540.32 Nilay Patel

All right. So those are the sanitized reasons. The things that go into press releases, the big companies and bosses will put their names on. But according to both Jessica and Stefan, while the productivity and culture angles are good enough excuses, return to office mandates are often about something few, if any, employers would ever really say out loud. Control.

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541.769 - 564.722 Bob Iger

If you've been on a good sports team that has like the energy, that can really move mountains and you can achieve like really amazing stuff. So there is some good reasons to be back in the office, at least some days. Sometimes the team has to be back and we have to have face-to-face interaction and certain tasks are going to be better done if we're actually sitting together in a room.

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565.902 - 584.401 Bob Iger

But there are terrible reasons to bring people back. Leaders might have the illusion that they can control their employees better when they're in the office because they somehow think if their buttons are in the chair in the office, then they're working harder than at home.

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584.878 - 604.989 Jessica Kriegel

I think one of the real reasons that people want to go back into the office is because they're totally lost on how to drive results in a hybrid environment. They cannot figure out how to stop tracking activity and start tracking outcomes and performance manage to outcomes, which is great leadership and harder leadership.

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605.669 - 623.498 Jessica Kriegel

Instead, they're so used to keeping their eyeballs on people and making sure people are doing their work and asking them, you What I'm doing is I'm saying, how many calls did you make? Did you make the calls? Did you put the calls in Salesforce? Did you get the AI bot to listen to your calls to give us some ideas about how your calls could be better?

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623.899 - 644.009 Jessica Kriegel

That's what most leaders do is they're just managing activity, and it's lazy leadership, and it's not elevated leadership, and it doesn't work, but it's really much easier to do in person than it is in a hybrid environment. If you were managing to outcomes, you would know that it's just as easy to manage in a virtual environment as it is in an in-person environment, but it's harder to do.

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644.109 - 662.839 Jessica Kriegel

So I think one is management doesn't have the skills to lead in a virtual environment. And so executives are seeing that their managers are failing and they are forcing people back into the office because they don't know how to get their managers to be better. I think a second reason is a lack of trust.

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663.159 - 688.077 Jessica Kriegel

They just think that people are, quote, stealing the company's time by doing laundry and going to their soccer game, et cetera. And it's a mindset issue in which you think that their time belongs to you. And that if they're doing anything other than focusing on productivity in that moment, that therefore they're being unethical, which is more silliness. And then you have kind of the...

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689.028 - 704.513 Jessica Kriegel

The meta reason, which is I, as a leader, want to have control and command and control is where I have more power. I have more influence and and I have the ability to make this decision and I'm going to command people back into the office. And so and why not?

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705.526 - 719.457 Nilay Patel

So what companies are actually leading the charge here? Amazon is the obvious one, of course. It's one of the biggest employers in the country, and it has a huge workforce of fulfillment and delivery workers who have been back at work in warehouses and delivery vans for years now. They simply can't do their jobs from home.

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719.957 - 728.184 Nilay Patel

But according to Jessica, it's more about leverage, whether a company believes there are enough people out there that want to work there more than they prioritize the flexibility of being remote.

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729.004 - 749.098 Jessica Kriegel

I think it's a company that has a brand that is attractive. Any company, so high-tech firms, Disney, for example, is attractive. People want to work there. And so they have the ability to say, we're going to make it hard for you and we don't care because we know that behind you are 100 other candidates who would like to have your job.

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749.479 - 759.646 Jessica Kriegel

So there's all the real reasons that underlie the spoken reasons that people are saying this. But if you have a good brand, you can get away with it. And so they are.

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761.075 - 780.823 Nilay Patel

Now, some of this can feel like it's limited to the tech industry or a specific set of what you might call laptop jobs. There are tons of people out there who simply have no choice but to be at work in retail and restaurants and entertainment. And a lot of people with white collar jobs who've been back in the office since well before hybrid was a thing. Doctors have to be in the office after all.

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781.063 - 789.347 Nilay Patel

And big law firms and companies in the finance industry long ago told their teams they get paid a lot of money and they need to be in the office five days a week because that's how it was going to be.

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790.438 - 799.493 Nilay Patel

But tech companies are locked into ferocious battles for talented people who can pick up and leave at a moment's notice to go work down the street for someone else for just as much, if not more, money.

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801.707 - 816.855 Jessica Kriegel

Tech has historically been known as the cool kids, and they have the glass offices with the ping pong tables, the kombucha in the break room, the volleyball courts outside, the bring your dog to work day, and all those other great perks that Google made popular 30 years ago now, right?

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817.295 - 837.485 Jessica Kriegel

All the other tech firms followed suit because they had to be cool and edgy in order to attract talent when there was the fight for tech talent in Silicon Valley and elsewhere. Well, Law firms, smaller organizations, those firms aren't trying to get people back in the office because our offices are so cool and we need to be more collaborative and creative like we used to be.

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837.885 - 853.472 Jessica Kriegel

They're just saying people aren't being as productive. We need people back in the office because they need to get back to work. People are doing laundry and they're going to coffee shops and they're not being as productive. So the reason I'm noticing behind closed doors is different.

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858.557 - 861.899 Nilay Patel

We'll be right back.

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888.029 - 904.398 Nilay Patel

We're back with Professor Stephen Meyer and workplace culture expert Jessica Krieger discussing return to office mandates. Before the break, you heard a few of the stated reasons why some big companies are pushing so hard to bring people back to the office. It's about productivity, it's about preserving culture, and it's probably also quite a bit about control.

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905.218 - 922.667 Nilay Patel

And I've heard all of this when talking to CEOs on Decoder. A lot of them seem to agree that flexibility around remote work was key for the first couple of years of the pandemic, and while adjusting was difficult, it was doable. We made it work. But some execs just don't think it's a great long-term strategy, not for their business and not for their culture.

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923.248 - 932.432 Nilay Patel

For example, we recently had Duolingo CEO Luis Van On on the show, and he explained that Duolingo, which is headquartered in Pittsburgh, has workers back at the office three days a week, without exceptions.

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933.072 - 957.3 Luis Von Ahn

I just wholeheartedly believe that you can work better that way. I mean, most of what we do, not 100%, but most of what we do is creative stuff. It's just a lot harder to do so over Slack and Zoom. You know, that kind of worked out for about nine months during the pandemic. But it is actually impressive how, you know, when the pandemic started, we all had to go remote. We executed pretty well.

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957.86 - 974.725 Luis Von Ahn

Towards the end of it, our ideas had kind of run out. I mean, we were executing the ideas, but we kind of had run out of new ideas. And it was pretty amazing. As soon as we came back to the office, within like three months, you would just see like all these ideas popping up. And it's because, my God, first of all, you can't sit in front of a whiteboard and talk about stuff.

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974.785 - 992.694 Luis Von Ahn

Also, there's, you know, we have lunch together here every day. In the lunch line, you hear people being like, hey, I haven't seen you in a while. I thought of saying this to you. It's just something that you would never send a Slack for. I think the combination of all this just makes it a better company. I don't have that much proof, but I am extremely convinced of this.

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993.454 - 1010.067 Nilay Patel

That line about creative work is something we've heard from other big names in the industry. Disney CEO Bob Iger used it last year when he said, "...in a creative business like ours, nothing can replace the ability to connect, observe, and create with peers that comes from being physically together, nor the opportunity to grow professionally by learning from leaders and mentors."

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1010.928 - 1029.118 Nilay Patel

Disney is now back in the office four days a week. But some CEOs don't buy it, and they are equally candid about it. Earlier this year, I chatted with Zoom CEO Eric Heon. Zoom was obviously one of the big winners in the shift to remote during the pandemic. This business basically exploded overnight from 10 million users at the end of 2019 to more than 300 million just four months later.

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1032.11 - 1045.076 Nilay Patel

But Zoom, as a company, eventually went hybrid too. Here's what Eric had to say about return to office and how companies should focus instead on fostering connection among employees with off-sites and other team-building exercises, which echoes a lot of what I heard from Stefan and Jessica.

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1045.476 - 1071.392 Eric Yuan

I do not think people wanted to get together more often in person, but they wanted to occasionally get together. In particular, for new employees, they want to start with in-person interaction. And afterwards, you and I already know each other very well. For the future interactions, we can go online, right? Also, they must see, first time we met in person, the future conversation will go online.

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1071.812 - 1084.162 Eric Yuan

And also want to meet in person maybe once or twice a year because we have so many employees living in LA, you know, and also in Florida, in Texas, right? They also want to gather together once or twice a year. I think that's good enough.

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1085.129 - 1092.491 Nilay Patel

One conversation I've been thinking about a lot in this context is the one I had in 2020 with Google CEO Sundar Pichai, right as the pandemic was in full swing.

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1093.151 - 1103.794 Nilay Patel

At the time, Google was fully remote, and Sundar made a similar argument about creative work, like brainstorming, and how important it might be for Google to reconsider its approach to remote down the line, when the roadmaps were less clear.

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1104.574 - 1125.465 Sundar Pichai

Productivity is down in certain parts. And what is not clear to me is in the first two months, most of the people are already on projects in which they kind of know what they need to do. But, you know, the next phase which will kick in is where, let's say, you're designing next year's products and, you know, you're on a brainstorming phase. Things are more unstructured.

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1125.585 - 1134.869 Sundar Pichai

How does that collaboration actually work? You know, that's a bit hard to understand and do. So we are trying to understand what works well and what doesn't.

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1135.529 - 1151.397 Nilay Patel

Here in 2024, it seems like Google is thinking about that dynamic more than ever. According to a report from Business Insider, when employees asked about the Amazon return to office mandate at a recent all-hands meeting, Google's VP of Global Compensation and Benefits, John Casey, said hybrid wasn't going anywhere for now.

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1152.057 - 1169.546 Nilay Patel

And Sundar himself chimed in to remind employees to be productive on the days they were working from home. The implication, of course, is that Google has the power to take away hybrid and remote flexibility if it wants to. All right, so that's what some big tech and media executives are saying about remote versus hybrid versus in-office work. But can we trust them?

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1169.886 - 1175.789 Nilay Patel

Is what they're saying really true? Here's Stefan and Jessica on whether it's actually the case that we're more creative or productive in person.

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1177.588 - 1203.004 Bob Iger

There is some data about some of the aspects of work. We create more creativity. So there is a study done by a colleague of mine at Columbia. And she did, with colleagues from Stanford, did an experiment where people brainstorm over Zoom, and they brainstorm in person. And they come up with more ideas in person.

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1203.803 - 1226.373 Bob Iger

Turns out then they have to then they have a list of projects and then they have to decide which are like the best ideas that they can actually do online as well. So I do think there is truth to that. Something in person works better. But again, is it 40 hours or whatever the workout week looks like that we do that? I don't think so.

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1226.994 - 1242.722 Bob Iger

Because you can probably then also do studies or you be more focused when you can do it at home or in a big open floor office. And you probably find you can probably be more focused when you're at home and you pick the time when you're most productive.

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1243.562 - 1267.57 Bob Iger

in doing so so there are certain tasks we do better at home and there is a certain task we do better in the office and now we just have to figure out what is the right mix and manage that well i don't think that we need to for all the tasks that we do we need to be in person even at disney not all the tasks are like together coming up with great stories 40 hours a week

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1268.243 - 1286.292 Jessica Kriegel

I do think there is something to that. I think being in person does do something to a working relationship that makes it a little bit juicier. I don't know what the definition of juicy is, but call it a vibe, right? Everyone who's listening knows what I'm talking about. Something is different when you meet someone in person. Having said that.

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1286.952 - 1304.998 Jessica Kriegel

Take your real estate budget and make it a travel budget instead. Let people get together for really intensive three-day thing every quarter rather than going into the office three days a week, maybe or maybe not running into the person, having all of the discomforts of going into the office. And I think you can get maybe even a better result out of your people.

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1305.638 - 1320.886 Nilay Patel

Jessica makes a really important point there. A lot of the tension in the remote versus in-office debate comes from a lack of managerial effort and coordination. Companies just aren't trying hard enough to figure out whether there's a better approach to hybrid that doesn't result in people sitting alone in the office on Zoom calls.

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1321.566 - 1327.83 Nilay Patel

Instead, as Stefan told me, we need to really start thinking both about the type of work we're doing and the context in which that work is done.

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1328.51 - 1354.332 Bob Iger

We should not think about jobs. We should think about tasks. What am I doing in a given day, on a day in a given week? And there are certain tasks that work better alone. Deep focused work. You don't get distracted. You just prepare. And you can do that whenever you're the most productive. That for some people, that's six o'clock in the morning. And for some people, that's 11 o'clock.

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1355.333 - 1377.815 Bob Iger

p.m at night and some do that better in a coffee shop and some do that better in their pajamas and that's what flexibility allows there are other tasks that are better maybe together like having a brainstorming activity solving a really complicated or talking about a really sensitive issue that is probably better in person

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1378.436 - 1406.005 Bob Iger

Now, do we do those in-person things or that's what we're better in person, 40 hours or 50 hours a week? No. Do we do the focus work 40, 50 hours a week? No. So now we have to rethink about how can we organize a day that take advantage of we're together or we give people flexibility. And that requires a little bit of coordination because I don't want to go to the office and be on a Zoom call.

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1406.125 - 1430.113 Bob Iger

That's my nightmare. Going to the office to be on a Zoom call is my personal nightmare. Or you go in there and it's half empty. There is nothing there. less motivating because it's like you're in a ginormous office and nobody's there. That sucks. So you want to make sure if you're there, you actually do something that is with other people together. Remote days cannot look like in-person days.

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1430.774 - 1449.373 Bob Iger

If they look the same, Yeah, you're on Zoom calls in the office and you're in meetings which should be in person at home. And that just doesn't work. You have to actually exploit the advantages of remote and the advantages of being in the office and stack it.

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1452.383 - 1466.77 Nilay Patel

There's still one really big question that's been looming over this whole discussion. One we hinted at right at the beginning. Layoffs. Are these return to office mandates really about headcount reduction? To hear Jessica tell it, the answer is yes, at least partially. But companies will never say that out loud.

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1467.29 - 1475.093 Nilay Patel

And while it may not be the primary reason these companies are requiring employees to come back in, it is certainly a beneficial side effect if you're a company that's looking to cut costs.

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1476.994 - 1501.998 Jessica Kriegel

Let me tell you the other real reason that people are doing this, right? For technology companies, they were for the longest time in gather market share mode, build and gather market share, which requires an enormous amount of effort and people where we are building and we're gathering market share and we're growing at the fastest pace possible so that we can be at the top of our game.

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1502.039 - 1522.46 Jessica Kriegel

And these companies have now reached the kind of the peak of that work. They have built the thing. Now it's an iterative process of maintaining, of improving, and continuing to grow incrementally, which means they need a lot less people than they did in growth mode. They are scaling back. They're having layoffs.

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1522.6 - 1545.164 Jessica Kriegel

I have spoken with the CEO of one of the biggest tech companies in the world who said, our company will never be bigger than it is today. This is the biggest we will ever be from an employee headcount standpoint. And from now on, We will be getting leaner and we will be getting more efficient with less people. And that's true for most tech companies. So they want to shed employees. They overhired.

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1545.304 - 1557.971 Jessica Kriegel

That was course corrected by the first round of layoffs that you saw last year. But now they're just trying to get leaner and more effective and efficient. And so they're going to continue to lay people off. And this is a way to get people to leave without laying them off.

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1559.011 - 1568.695 Nilay Patel

So where does that put Amazon? As I mentioned at the top of the episode, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy had a response to claims from employees that his company's return to office mandate was a, quote, backdoor layoff.

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1569.335 - 1589.105 Nilay Patel

According to CNBC, Jassy told Amazon employees at an all-hands meeting that it was simply not true that the company wanted to reduce headcount or that it had made any deals with city governments to help boost local economies by bringing workers back into offices. Instead, Jassy said, quote, this was not a cost play for us. This is very much about our culture and strengthening our culture.

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1590.126 - 1605.035 Nilay Patel

That echoes what Amazon Web Services CEO Matt Garman said at a separate all-hands meeting last month. CNBC also reported that at that time, Garman said, quote, we want to be in an environment where we are working together and we feel that collaborative environment is incredibly important for our innovation and our culture.

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1605.936 - 1626.523 Nilay Patel

Garmin claimed that 9 out of 10 employees were excited about the return to work, and that one key part of office culture that he was trying to revive was the ability to disagree and debate. In a pretty funny quote for anyone who has ever had to use Amazon's internal video conferencing tool, Garmin said, quote, I don't know if you guys have tried to disagree via a chime call. It's very hard.

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1628.924 - 1630.445 Nilay Patel

We have to take a quick break. We'll be right back.

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1639.735 - 1655.727 Stephan Meier

With the power of AWS Generative AI, teams can get relevant, fast answers to pressing questions and use data to drive real results. Power your business and generate real impact with the most experienced cloud.

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1660.933 - 1668.495 Nilay Patel

We're back with Professor Stephen Meyer and workplace culture expert Jessica Krieger, discussing why companies want people back in the office and what's next for hybrid and remote work.

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1669.38 - 1683.486 Nilay Patel

Before the break, you heard Jessica say that some companies are indeed looking at headcount reduction as one of the many reasons to push employees back into the office, and that there's still just a lot of frustration and poor management leading companies to think they need to pull back from hybrid and remote work. So how is this going to play out?

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1684.427 - 1695.492 Nilay Patel

I often look at this debate and get frustrated by the extremes. It's either people telling me that full remote is the future, or it's companies like Amazon and others saying you have to come in five days a week. The choice is always presented as a binary.

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1696.192 - 1711.643 Nilay Patel

But Stefan thinks that ultimately hybrid is the way to go, even if it leads to some painful tradeoffs, like having to make tough decisions about when and for how long to bring employees together for offsites. Stefan thinks most companies will choose hybrid to get access to a larger, more distributed pool of talent.

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1712.31 - 1729.803 Bob Iger

I actually think that most organizations will end up in hybrid. And when you look at the data, that's actually what turns out a lot of organizations doing. They don't do extremes, one or the other. And I know remote-first companies who are doing just fine.

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1730.363 - 1739.81 Bob Iger

And I guess we're going to see companies that are all in the office and they're doing... Maybe your friend's law firms are going to be doing fine when they do so. But most organizations...

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1740.35 - 1753.276 Bob Iger

I think we'll end up in a hybrid world where you actually get the benefit of those personal interactions, but also the benefit of giving people flexibility and that deep focus time that they will have when they're at home.

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1754.376 - 1769.703 Nilay Patel

One of the big promises of being fully remote is that you have access to a larger talent pool. You can hire people wherever they are, across the country, maybe even across the world, and they can all come work for you. And that's now every company is globally competitive in a way that was really hard to be before.

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1769.943 - 1782.448 Nilay Patel

But if you're talking about hybrid and you're talking about coming in two or three days a week and being flexible and having these moments where you can just pull people in because you need them, everyone still has to be in a range, right? You have to be somewhat available, if not completely available.

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1783.008 - 1790.271 Nilay Patel

Is that pushing back against this notion that we'll just have a totally distributed workforce and pull talent from all these sort of non-traditional tech cities?

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1790.871 - 1809.005 Bob Iger

Yeah, I think that's the trade-off. When you do hybrid, people have to work, live closer. Now, if you only come into New York City three days a week, you can maybe take a little longer commute on those three days than if you have to come five, but you can't live in Sydney.

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1809.305 - 1830.613 Bob Iger

Sydney might be hard because it's a different time zone, but you can't live in, you know, it's hard to live in upstate, even upstate New York. where we would have the same time zone. So we can do a lot of synchronous work, but not together in the office. Yeah, I think that's the trade-off. And if it's for the organization, really difficult to find talent in a location.

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1830.633 - 1858.249 Bob Iger

I think you might go for a very distributed workforce. You bring people together for like those retreats on steroids that there is group building and there is a lot of the trust building happens then in person. You can do that. People can fly in wherever for a week or two And then they go back to their work. But it depends a lot, like how hard is it to attract talent? What talent do you need?

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1859.189 - 1865.051 Bob Iger

And then you trade off the upside of that. You can access that much larger talent pool.

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1865.071 - 1867.411 Nilay Patel

Those trade-offs are why Jessica ultimately disagrees.

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1867.932 - 1891.698 Jessica Kriegel

I think that eventually we will all be working from home. Not next year, but eventually. It does feel inevitable to me. Hybrid has been shown to be one of the hardest models to implement effectively. I do think that of all the models, working from home 100% is the best. And there are plenty of companies that are 100% remote. Many companies have made very...

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1893.359 - 1908.611 Jessica Kriegel

great results with a company that's 100% remote. And many companies are highly successful being in the office five days a week, right? And then there are, of course, those jobs where you have to be in the office or you have to be on the factory floor. And those will always be, you know, in manufacturing, for example, you have to be there, right?

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1909.172 - 1928.626 Jessica Kriegel

But hybrid has been very complicated for the reasons you talked about. You go to the office to get on a Zoom. You go to the office and people picked a different day to go to the office and no one's there. So hybrid is hard. Being 100% one or the other is a little bit easier. And I think that it'll take a while, but eventually more people will be working from home than not.

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1929.066 - 1950.517 Jessica Kriegel

It's absolutely true that you have a larger talent pool when your company is remote because you're pulling from a larger pool of people. And so you can be more selective and get higher level talent, right, than if you're geographically remote. landlocked, so to speak. So that's unequivocally true. There's no argument against that. I think moving forward, this is the differentiator, right?

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1950.697 - 1970.647 Jessica Kriegel

I would love for the companies that our organization competes against to to force people back into the office because this will become a differentiator for me then and for the job openings that I have that we are remote. You can work from home. Come and apply over here. Don't go to our competitors. They're going to make you go in the office five days a week.

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1970.707 - 1990.524 Jessica Kriegel

And that also is a competitive edge and a differentiator just to be offering that. I have been approached by a lot of organizations to move and take on other roles with better pay and more power, more influence, more whatever it is that everyone wants in their career. But you've got to go into the office five days a week. And I said, no, thank you. There's no way.

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1991.045 - 1994.869 Jessica Kriegel

It's not part of my value system anymore. And there are a lot of people like me.

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1998.376 - 2009.829 Nilay Patel

What does seem very clear to me, and what I heard from both Jessica and Stefan, is that the idea that we can just turn back the clock to before the pandemic and do what we did before because it was easier, that's not going to happen. The world is a different place now.

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2010.99 - 2028.229 Nilay Patel

Before the pandemic, remote work was treated either as a luxury or something only a small handful of companies or startups could successfully pull off. But after 2020, we all saw that it worked. And as you'll hear both Stefan and Jessica say, this isn't just a new way of doing things. This is an entirely new reality, one that can't just be undone.

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2029.17 - 2056.518 Bob Iger

People got a taste of that it's actually possible. And really nice to have also that flexibility. So now pushing back from that new default is going to be really hard. Before the pandemic, nobody actually thought about that hard. Oh, could we do a hybrid? There were like some really forward-looking organizations that were doing that. Most organizations were like... We come five days away.

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2057.018 - 2067.884 Bob Iger

In the summer, maybe you have a Friday afternoon off. But very few were actually really being visionary about that. But now we tasted it. And now we say, it's actually possible.

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2068.564 - 2090.315 Jessica Kriegel

We have unlocked a new belief due to the experience of COVID. We all had an experience that was transformative for us in the way we think about work. and where work can be done and how productive we can be at home. And that's not going away, right? We know that now. And if you think about the people who are forcing people back into the office and the language used around that, it's quite telling.

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2090.996 - 2116.65 Jessica Kriegel

Return, return to office, go back to the office. Those are regressive phrases that are about going backwards to the way that it was before COVID. They're acting like COVID was a pause on normal and that now we can unpause and go back to normal as if it didn't completely transform our thinking and the nature of the global economy. It did transform us. Now we are different.

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2116.67 - 2138.362 Jessica Kriegel

We've been shaped to be different because of what was a global pandemic. catastrophic event that totally upended businesses and people's personal lives. And so our new beliefs exist. And so that is, you know, that's here to stay. What's happened is a change, a change in the nature of work. And the companies that are trying to force people back into the office are not able to adapt.

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2138.442 - 2143.645 Jessica Kriegel

They're trying to just go back to how it always has been. And so those those are not the companies that I believe will win.

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2144.693 - 2161.677 Nilay Patel

So where does that leave Amazon? Jessica says she thinks of any of the companies that are requiring people to come back to the office, Amazon is the one that will move the needle the most. But in what direction, we're going to have to wait and see. She also says that Amazon is the kind of company that, when it really comes down to it, will adapt to whatever situation best suits the business.

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2162.509 - 2184.96 Jessica Kriegel

I think there will be a seismic shift. They have made a commitment in their executive closed doors meeting to take this to the limit. Amazon has gone in the public eye, has done media interviews, has adamantly shared that this is happening. And so I think they're prepared for the seismic shift that will happen as a result of that. I think it's going to shake things up.

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2185.42 - 2197.468 Jessica Kriegel

So I think they'll go through with it. I think something will shift. I think we'll all see what that is. And no one really knows what it is because this is the first of its kind. And I think the other tech companies will follow based on how it goes with Amazon.

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2201.38 - 2216.926 Nilay Patel

I'd like to thank Stefan and Jessica for joining me on Decoder, and thank you for listening. I hope you enjoyed it. If you have thoughts about this episode, and I'm sure you do, you can email us at decoderattheverge.com. We really do read all the emails. You can also hit me up directly on threads. I'm at Reckless1280. We also have a TikTok. Check it out. It's at DecoderPod. It's a lot of fun.

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2217.366 - 2231.717 Nilay Patel

If you like Decoder, please share it with your friends and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. If you really like the show, hit us with that five-star review. Decoder is a production of The Virgin, part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Our producers are Kate Cox and Nick Statt. Our editor is Callie Wright. Our supervising producer is Liam James. The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.

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2231.977 - 2232.558 Nilay Patel

We'll see you next time.

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2239.514 - 2250.286 Stephan Meier

Support for this episode comes from AWS. AWS Generative AI gives you the tools to power your business forward with the security and speed of the world's most experienced cloud.

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