Zach Mack
Appearances
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
I agree. Yeah. I think it would take you changing, and it doesn't seem like you're really open to doing that.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Yeah, but I just don't see a compelling sell. It doesn't seem like you're right. I could see Dad straining, searching for any solution that didn't involve him being wrong. So he started bargaining.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
If you're keeping score at home, that's four for me. All right, next one. You said Trump will be reinstated without an election. Trump won re-election. He was not reinstated without an election. That's five. Trump will have all charges dropped on May 30th, 2024. Trump was found guilty and convicted on 34 felony charges in a New York hush money trial.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
I mean, look, I think this year has been difficult, especially recently. But I also think you and I have gotten closer than we've ever been.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Yeah. It's not that it's not worth it. It's just, well, I don't know. I don't know that it is worth. I don't think these beliefs are worth it. I think you're losing a lot for them.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
I think you and I are, are, are like ultimately where I do feel like we are getting along really well. I do feel conflicted because as that's happening, You and mom are getting separated in Cure is Not Home for Christmas. And those are all because of your beliefs.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
But I think Kira does feel rejected. She does not feel fully accepted by you.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
As the conversation wound down, I let go of any notion I could convince him of anything he didn't already believe. I was finally ready to stop struggling and just accept the truth. I couldn't help him. Maybe someone else could. If I arranged for someone to speak with you about this stuff, who sort of specializes in this stuff, would you be open to something like that? Sure. Yeah?
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
You actually would? Yeah. Okay. I mean, honestly, that's kind of it. I just want to say I do really appreciate... Oh, man, sorry. It's been a hard year, man. It's... Yeah. But... I mean, I appreciate the conversations we've had all year. Like, I've... I feel closer to you than I ever have. And... I'm really sad about the state of this family.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
That makes six. Moving on. Next one. Governor Hochul, the governor of New York, would be removed from office. Governor Hochul is currently in office with no charges being brought against her. She will be up for reelection in 2026. That is correct. Seven. On to the home stretch. Biden will be removed from office, which, you know, at the time of the recording, he was still president.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
But I do appreciate your openness, your willingness to... I don't know. I mean, you never ducked a hard question.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
How are you going to pay me? Check? Should we go to the bank? Should I get one of those giant golf checks?
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
As we stood there hugging, I just broke down. I don't know what comes next, where we go from here. It felt like things fell apart so quickly, but also so slowly over many years. The cracks became holes, and in the end, we didn't make it. I think in many ways, I'm the one who got off the easiest.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
I'm still in good standing with everyone, which makes me feel a mixture of relief and guilt, maybe a splash of gratitude. And for those of you who keep asking, yes, I took the money. Absolutely.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
But on New Year's Day, the day my dad officially lost the bet, I'm pumped up. I took him to go see Ohio State, our favorite football team playing the Rose Bowl.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Yet another prediction my father got wrong, by the way. But they did win. Go Buckeyes. The day was a reminder of how good things could be. And at the same time of everything we couldn't be. Not anymore. As I watched the clock run down, I knew the moment the game was over, so was our shared reality. You just heard alternate realities from Embedded.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
You can also check out a version of the story that I made for This American Life that is available now. This series would not have been possible without my father, mother, and sister Kira. I cannot say enough about your openness and bravery, and I'm so thankful for your love and support throughout this project. It means the world to me.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
This series was produced and sound designed by Ariana Garably and Dan Gurma. The two of you were incredible to work with, and you both have my back every step of the way. You guys are amazing. Luis Treas edited this series. And Luis, I just want to say thank you for all of your dedication and believing in this story from the very beginning.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Music includes original scoring by my guy, Peter Leonard. Gilly Moon and Robert Rodriguez mastered this series. Fact-checking by Greta Pittinger. Special thanks to Sarah Wyman for production support. Liana Simstrom is our supervising senior producer. Katie Simon is our supervising senior editor. Katie, thank you for being so patient with me throughout this process.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Biden's still in the White House. You're not you're not rebutting that.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Irene Noguchi is our executive producer. NPR's senior vice president for podcasting is Colin Campbell. What up, Colin? The Embedded team also includes Adelina Lansianese, Abby Wendell, Andrew Mambo, and Raina Cohen. Thanks to managing editor of Standards and Practices, Tony Cavan, and to Micah Ratner and Johanna Sturgey for legal support.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Our visuals editor is Emily Bogle, original tile art by Luke Medina. Special thanks to Kelly McEvers, Brett Neely, Sarah Ventry, and Lauren Gonzalez. And also David Kestenbaum, Francis Swanson, and Ira Glass from This American Life. Also, thank you to Nishat Kerwa from Vox Media, Simon Adler, and Tessa Stewart who helped with this story early on.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Thank you to the people in my life, Joshua Muir, Ellen Skiff, and all the other friends who have kept me sane over the months. Shout out to my personal board members, Sean Ramos-Wurrum and Chris Bannon. And Dave Johnson, thank you so much for your contract support.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Finally, we are grateful to all the social scientists, journalists, and other experts who took the time to speak to us and whose research informed this series, including Charlie Safford, Joseph Uzinski, Tom Costello, Sander Vanderlinden, Gordon Pennycook, Matthew Taylor, Alexandra Filindra, and Brad Onishi, who has a great podcast called Straight White American Jesus. Check it out.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
And a big thanks to our Embedded Plus supporters. Embedded is where we do ambitious, long-form journalism at NPR, and Embedded Plus helps us keep that work going. Supporters also get to listen to every Embedded series, sponsor-free, and every episode early. Find out more at plus.npr.org slash embedded or find the Embedded channel in Apple. All right, I'm Zach Mack, and this is Embedded from NPR.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
And we're back to body doubles. But even still, he conceded the point. So that's eight. Okay, then there's one prediction dad was close on. Because Eric Adams, the mayor of New York, could be removed. Just not in time. As it stands right now, he's still the mayor. Right. Tough break. But that makes nine. Okay, last one. Our country would come under martial law.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
So it was clear I was the winner. The whole deal was for you to convince me that you're right, but you're 0 for 10, so... Right.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
At long last, it was finally time to hear Dad say the magic words we agreed to a year ago.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
I don't need you to say it 10 times. Just give me one good take.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
I wish I could tell you that dad changed his mind and that the family was able to heal. However... You're really prefacing that.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
So your explanation for why these things did not yet come to pass is that you just got the timeline wrong.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Unfortunately, but unsurprisingly, Dad turned to the failed prophecy playbook. He blamed it on the timeline. We were right back where we started. You still believe what you believe, and I still believe that that's false.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Dad's not changing. No. It's not the outcome I was hoping for, but here we are. So now what? What happens to Kira? What happens to Mom? And where does that leave me? The bet was over, but we still needed to assess the damage and see if Dad was willing to take any steps towards repair. From NPR's Embedded, I'm Zach Mack, and this is the final episode of Alternate Realities. Alternate Realities
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
After almost a year of waiting, the day had finally arrived. It was time to close out the bet on Dad's 10 predictions with $10,000 on the line. I mean, I have everything, but you can go get your list.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
OK, let's back up a second, because just days before I sat down with Dad to settle the bet, Things with the family had hit an all-time low. Right before flying home for Christmas, I had arranged a call with my mom and sister. I was hoping they could come up with something I could convey to dad in our final conversation, concrete steps he could take to show he was trying.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
But minutes before our call, my sister sent a text. She gave me permission to read this, by the way. Last night, I realized to a new degree how angry and hurt I am, and I'm not in the space to participate. I made my ass two years ago for him to accept me and love me, and he has seemed very disinterested in doing so. Please continue today without me. Kira was out. Still, Mom suggested we check in.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
She began to fill me in. The night before, she and dad were talking about his beliefs around Kira and conspiracies and religion, and if he was open to reconsidering.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
After 40 years of marriage, Mom was done. They had agreed to separate and for my dad to move out.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
To be honest, I was surprised at how quickly all this happened. Not very long ago, we talked and you were sort of, you know, like, oh, I can't wait for January 1st, so he'll be proven wrong. And then we can kind of like... Move on. Move on. And here we are 12 days before New Year's and it's like totally sputtered out.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
I was proud of mom for holding her ground. Soon she could be unburdened by all this. Free to retire and move on. And also, she gave me some relief of my own.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Oh, man. Well, at least so far we're sharing a reality. Dad and I sat across from each other at the same table we shared countless family dinners growing up. He pulled out his handwritten list, and I had my laptop open to a dock full of questions and fact checks. I'm just going to go through the list for your 10 predictions for the year. We'll start with the easy ones.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
At least it wouldn't be my reporting that did us in. So days later, it was just down to me and dad. I had spent months picturing what confronting him would look like, but none of those scenarios had included me being the only one left on good terms with him. After going through each prediction together, I knew it was finally time to press him.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
I just see sort of an unwillingness to, for you to be wrong.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
You see how you prefaced it. Not that you're wrong about them. You're just wrong about the timeline.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Sure, but it's a half measure. It's a way for you to be right.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Yeah. Despite dad signaling all year he wasn't going to change his mind, it was still disappointing to see it unfold. All of these beliefs, it feels like you're really holding on to them, and I'm not sure why.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
As I watched him dig in and double down, I couldn't help but imagine his future, the unvetted information he'd taken, the precious metals and survivalist gear he'd spend more money on, the people he'd surround himself with as he drifted further away from the family. One of the things I've thought a lot about during this process is your dad and what happened to him.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
And in the face of so many people around him, including yourself, saying, hey, you're going down the wrong road. Don't do this. Please listen. And he wouldn't hear it from anyone. And it cost him his life. I see a lot of parallels with what's happening right now.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
You know, I don't think you're at risk of physical danger so much. Yeah. I think you're at risk of a lot of other things.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Financial ruin. I think you're at risk of being ostracized and completely left out of this family dynamic.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
There's four that can easily be grouped together, and that is... Barack Obama will be convicted of treason. Joe Biden will be convicted of treason. Nancy Pelosi convicted of treason. The Clintons convicted of treason and murder. I would group them categorically. I ran through the list. No convictions, no charges, not even any investigations. Literally no momentum of any kind.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
I think the people in your community, you know, our friends and family. I don't think they believe what you believe. And I do think that's going to continue to impact you negatively.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Very small. I've talked to Marty. I talked to Chuck. I talked to Paul. Okay. I talked to John. None of them are really on board with these beliefs.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Paul said he's not on board at all and that it's been really difficult. Chuck, obviously not on board at all. Marty, confused, you know, says, I'm just curious how he got to this place. But I feel like the closest friends in your life, your family, you know, the people around you are telling you, hey, you're going the wrong way. You're not listening.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
At this point in the conversation, I began to struggle. I could feel my patience wearing down. I started to press it more. I mean, look at the state of our family right now. And I think we've gotten to this place in large part because of your beliefs.
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Alternate Realities: Facing the Facts
Yeah. But I would say that's when you got radicalized. I don't think ultimately mom, Kira, and I have changed a lot ideologically since that time. I don't think you're in the same place. I think that's what's changed and we're reacting to that change.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
And while he's mostly facilitating discussion about scripture, I was shocked by the sheer amount of misinformation being flung around so casually. I'm talking about everything from weather controlling devices to global cabals to a lot of anti-vax rhetoric. Amongst this small group, I got to see my father surrounded by people that weren't pushing him away.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
A place where he gets to be the thought leader. Along with this, he's been writing a book that he plans to self-publish. My dad's never written a book or identified as a writer, but this past year, he seemed to be looking for an audience.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
So I think, you know, between some of your beliefs, between the Bible group and now with the book, I'm sort of wondering if you, like, feel a deeper urge to be heard.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Oh, man. It feels like there's maybe a little bit of a shift where you're maybe seeking more attention.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Dad has big plans for this book. My understanding is that it's about forgiveness and the state of Christianity. I'm still fuzzy on the details, but whenever he discusses it, it feels grandiose. Book tours, maybe a bestseller, speaking engagements. It all felt like it was tying back to a higher purpose, something existential. It's something that I brought up while speaking with other experts.
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This is Charlie Safford. He designs clinical therapy techniques for people who believe in far-right conspiracies. He believes conspiracy theories are fundamentally emotional coping mechanisms.
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Grandpa was 68 years old, the exact same age as my father when we made our bet.
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Do you feel like you need to get a lot done before that happens?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
A couple of months into our bet, and I was still feeling good about things. Still, no EMP device used to take down the grid. No sign of Obama, Pelosi, Biden, or the Clintons being tried for treason. The governor and mayor of New York still had their jobs. And no sign of martial law being imposed anywhere. To be honest, I wasn't worried about the outcome of these predictions.
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I'm hesitant to overly psychoanalyze him, but I think his actions are addressing a way to seek meaning and community and status. All the things he lacks within our family. I see a determination in him that I haven't seen before, an ambition. And while he looks to move more into the role of thought leader, I find that there's even less space for the possibility that he's wrong.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Your beliefs, I feel like, have gotten more extreme.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
As we were talking, I reminded Dad of that argument we had in the restaurant years ago, when he insisted I hardly knew him. Do you feel like I know you now better?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
I spent years feeling distant and frustrated with my dad, but it felt like we were starting to have a breakthrough. That is until November happened. By the fall, as we rounded into the final stretch of the year, there had still been no movement on any of dad's predictions. But he didn't seem worried. You still feel good about the bet?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
I was beginning to realize that my dad might be operating on an entirely different timeline than me. Maybe the end of the year wasn't the end for him. However, I knew I was sticking to January 1st, and so was my mom.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
What if he just says, you know, I still think all these things are going to happen. I just got the timeline wrong. It's just going to happen next year.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
You know that meme of the dog sitting in a room engulfed in flames, pretending nothing's wrong, and all they have to say is, this is fine. Usually, that's my mom's approach with dad. Usually.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
For my dad, it was becoming a lose-lose situation. He was either going to have to forfeit his beliefs or forfeit the family.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
For me, the bet wasn't just about proving him wrong or winning $10,000. It was about changing his mind. And that's the part I was worried about. Because I really didn't understand why my father believed what he believed. In fact, I wasn't sure I understood him much at all. Lately, I've been thinking back to this argument I had with my dad years ago.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Shortly after this conversation took place, the election happened. My father, who no longer trusts elections, didn't even bother to watch. My mom was actually the one who told him about Trump's victory.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
I was calling the next day to discuss the results, and apparently, before I called, Dad had echoed some of the false claims about January 6th, something about how the rioters were paid actors, and that pissed Mom off.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
The sad part is, I had known for years that he believed this. Mom tried her best to look away for so long, but now she was looking.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
That day, Mom began sleeping in a separate bedroom, a step I've never seen her take before. How was your conversations with mom today?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
I mean, she said that she doesn't mind being politically different, but the conspiracy stuff she's really struggling with. Yeah. Do you feel like any pull to like meet her halfway on that stuff?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
It's a fair question. Deep beliefs don't feel like choices. But when you reach an impasse like this, choices have to be made. It looks like my mom is making them. And she's not the only one. After a year of nearly no contact with my father, my sister informed the family that she wouldn't be coming home for the holidays, which we always come together for.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
But after two Christmases in a row where communication had broken down over her sexuality, she decided she wasn't interested in a third. Why aren't you coming home for Christmas?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
What would need to happen for things to change for you?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Do you feel like you have a plan for how you're going to interact with him moving forward?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
I was home visiting my parents and we went to one of our favorite restaurants. I can't remember the specifics about what he and I were arguing about, but it had to have been about politics. I mostly remember how it felt because it got contentious and it ended with my father getting the last word. He said, well, you don't really know me.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
For years, Kira had the better relationship with Dad, certainly the less contentious one. And now, while Kira and Dad are further apart than ever, he and I have forged this newfound closeness.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Making this series has been really difficult for me. It's been hard to watch my family go up in flames and to see my mom and sister in pain and to document all that in real time. For months, I wrestled over whether or not I was doing the right thing. And to be honest, I'm still not sure that I am.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
But I have to acknowledge that it's because of this project that I've been able to speak with my father in ways that I never have before. Still, I wasn't sure that would lead to change.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
All these conversations with mom and Kira were happening as the deadline for the bet was bearing down on us. So I asked them to think if they had any asks of dad that I could relay to him. Anything at all. Like seeing a therapist, reading a specific book, attending a church with more inclusive views on sexuality. After getting so much closer to him, I just thought that he might be open to it.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
They said they'd think on it and they would get back to me before New Year's. And this idea of asks got me thinking. My dad is actually pretty good at giving advice. He has this rare ability to step outside of himself. So I asked him, what if a complete stranger came to him with these exact problems? What kind of advice would he give? What would he say to himself if he wasn't, you know, himself?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
That stopped me dead in my tracks because despite 30-plus years of history, I wondered if he might be right. Maybe I didn't really know him. And so if I had any hope of changing his mind, I was going to need to learn a lot more about him and figure out why he seemed so prepared to give up so much, including his own family. So last year, that's what I set out to do.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
It trips me out when you say things like that because you're saying it with such clarity, but I wish you were saying it to yourself. Like, I wish you were hearing that.
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As I prepared to have our final conversation, it felt like maybe he had it in him. If there was ever a time I could possibly get through to him, it would be now. All right. I love you. Thank you for doing this. Thank you so much for your time. All right.
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I appreciate it, Dan. It's actually been really nice talking to you, too. All right. All right. Take care. You too. Good night. All right. Okay, here we go. Coming up on the final episode of Alternate Realities...
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Yeah, go get your list. It's time to settle the bet.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
However... That's next time on Alternate Realities. This is episode two of three, and just a heads up, the final episode of the series is available right now. Thank you for listening.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
From NPR's Embedded, I'm Zach Mack, and this is Alternate Realities.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
In order to get to know my father, one of the first places I thought to start was with the people around him. I reached out to four of his closest friends to get their take, curious if they also thought he had a problem with reality. You talked to my dad the other day?
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This is Chuck. He's my father's oldest friend. They've known each other over 40 years, back when dad was a very different guy.
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Chuck is like the one friend my dad has held onto from his old life in the Midwest. They've been living apart since the 80s, yet they've remained close, despite being political opposites.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Another friend I reached out to was a guy named Paul. He's been one of my dad's closest friends over the past decade. They'd go to church together, even attend Christian retreats together. My working theory was that Paul might have been ground zero for a lot of my dad's conspiracies. Stuff like globalist cabals and believing that Biden has multiple body doubles.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
What do you think that exchange would go like if you sort of started to push back on some of those ideas that you found outlandish?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Dad told me that the person he speaks to the most about these theories is his friend and neighbor John. So I spoke to him too.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
I mean, it's a good quote. After my dad and I started this year-long experiment, this bet, he and I began talking a lot more. But the more we talked, the harder both of us clung to the idea that only one of us was right. Can I read you a Mark Twain quote that I was thinking about just this weekend?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
And then there's Marty. He's known my parents for 40 years. He's basically family. He actually held me and dropped me the week I was born. And of all my father's friends, he might be the only one who really pushed us back.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
I'll admit, I was worried about this happening. Dad pushing the date back. But I was hoping that losing the bet would be enough to sway him.
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Dad's friends clearly thought he was going the wrong way. He was mostly on his own with these beliefs. And I had seen this sort of thing play out before in the family. Some parallels with what happened to his father, my grandfather. Do you think your dad was, I don't know, how would you describe him? Would you describe him as stubborn?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
My grandfather was a chiropractor. Like dad, he was also against vaccines. He believed in what he called the body's natural immunities, so much so that he held my father out of school in the 60s due to a new vaccine mandate at the time.
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My grandfather was living in Ohio with his wife and six kids, and he had his own business. That is until the Ohio State Medical Board cracked down on him.
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After my grandfather's business dissolved, dad says he was never able to fully recover.
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My grandfather was a tall and thin man and one of the things I remember most about him is this one time when he came to visit us, his body had just completely changed. He had gained over 100 pounds in a short amount of time. He was going through some mental health issues that the family never fully understood and it was affecting his weight and his ability to sleep.
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It's hard to tell because he would never see a doctor, but I remembered he'd just start falling asleep a lot. He would be in the middle of a conversation sometimes or even at dinner and he'd just start snoring. Minutes later, he'd abruptly wake up and carry on as if nothing happened. This also began to happen while he was driving. My grandpa got into a number of car accidents.
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He totaled several cars and nearly killed my grandma. He refused to stop driving and even went to a neighboring state to get a driver's license after his was taken away. He refused to admit anything was wrong. The family tried talking to him. So did my father several times. And when that didn't work, dad tried something else.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
And I was thinking about it in relationship to conspiracy theorists. Mark Twain said this. It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they've been fooled.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Not long after this, when I was 9 or 10 years old, my parents called my sister and me into the kitchen to tell us something. But before they said anything, I already knew. My grandfather was dead. They told us he had fallen asleep while driving and that his vehicle veered off the road.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
When I think about my grandfather, I think about how what caused his death may have been stubbornness, a refusal to listen to those around him. I don't think my father's in imminent physical danger, but I am worried about him. Through my grandfather's story, I see a direct correlation with his stubbornness, his deep distrust in institutions, and the attitude that no matter what, he knows best.
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How can I break the cycle? It's a question that made me turn to professionals.
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This is Joseph Uzinski, a professor at the University of Miami. He's one of the foremost political scientists studying conspiracy theories.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Joseph runs experiments to try to find ways to pull people out of the rabbit hole. He's tried challenging them with facts, but he says that doesn't really work.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
I used to think of my dad's beliefs as separate. Like, there's how he feels about God or curious sexuality, global cabals. But the more I learned, the more I realized it's all interconnected. Part of a worldview that's been many years in the making.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Herein lies my conflict with you. I got to convince you that you've been fooled.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
This is a tough one for me. I've always thought that if I could just string together the exact right pieces of information, that would be enough to change his mind. But that's just not how it works. And I realize now that my father is addressing a need. A need that's being fulfilled by conspiracies and prophets like Julie Green.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
This is Dr. Bradley Onishi. He's a professor and former evangelical minister who studies the threat of religious extremism. He says rhetoric like this casts believers as heroes.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
In the Bay Area and amongst our family and friends, Dad will always be an outsider. And as I watch my family push him further and further away because of his beliefs, I can see how from his perspective, we are the intolerant ones, the ones who don't understand. I can't imagine what that must feel like, and I know it wears on him. You feel like you're the odd man out?
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
So what happens when your family, your friends, the people you surround yourself with don't respect your beliefs? You look elsewhere. And I see Dad seeking out community and followers. A few years ago, he started a small Bible study group, which I sat in on recently.
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Alternate Realities: Down the Rabbit Hole
Funny thing about that quote my dad just used. I found out later that it's fake. Mark Twain never actually said that. But even funnier is the quote that I used as a rebuttal. Well, Mark Twain never said that either. Proof we could both be wrong. I guess in the end, misinformation comes for us all. But hey, that's why we have fact-checkers.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
She sits in an office chair in a drab-looking room and rattles off a lot of prophecies.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
She's part of a growing movement within Christianity that emphasizes spiritual warfare and politics.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Dad told me he found her a couple years ago and watches her three to four times a week.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
This all started about a year ago when my father called and left me this message.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
As you can probably tell, the majority of Dad's predictions, they came from Julie Greene.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
When I spoke to Dad about all this, it was clear that his predictions all stem from his religious beliefs, which I've always found somewhat confusing because to look at his list, none of these ideas seem to have anything to do with God at all. Do you want these things to happen, or do you just feel confident that they are going to happen?
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Yeah. I would say our country hasn't seen anything like this since the Civil War, probably.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Are you at all afraid about what would happen if all the predictions come true?
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Okay, just to be clear, there is no evidence to support these claims. And frankly, it's pretty hard to hear him spew these xenophobic ideas. When you say all this kind of stuff, To me, it sounds... Not so. Right?
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Yeah, I totally get it. I guess like what we probably can agree on is that this is not the publicly held belief. This is not like the sort of agreed upon truth amongst most people, right? Would you agree on that? Yeah, correct. So in that, you know, it seems like the people that are in your life just don't buy into this, I'm wondering how do you know that you're right? Why are we all wrong?
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
My dad's belief in prophecy means that he thinks he can see the world as it really is, whereas non-believers like me cannot. But here's what drives me nuts. My father can barely navigate the internet. He can't even figure out how to access his own email from his laptop. So when he talks about having access to more information, it sounds less like wisdom from God and more like delusion.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Looking back over his list about treason and martial law, I'm still surprised that this is what he wants to put his money on.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
But I mean, I think the way you've laid it out here, there'll be a pretty clear case of, like, who's right and who's wrong.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Yeah, but look, I'm not... This isn't just about the money, right? I would like to make some positive strides for our family.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
I do think for both of us, this is about respect. We each feel dismissed by the other and we're fighting to be heard. And I'm not going to lie, it's also about winning. Because at the end of the day, these predictions will either happen or they won't.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
So this bet, it was always about the opportunity it presented, a chance to shift my father's perspective. I picture his beliefs like a giant cruise ship, and I'm just trying to nudge its trajectory a couple of millimeters, knowing that with enough time, even that slight adjustment will land the ship at a completely different destination.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
But when you're charting off course, it's hard to tell where you'll end up, and that's especially hard for the family.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
If you're wrong, what happens to you? What happens to your beliefs?
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
As we go at the end of the year. Okay. Yeah. Okay. I think that's all I have. Okay.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Coming up on alternate realities. I try to figure out how my dad got here. See things from his side.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
This is Alternate Realities, episode one of three. And heads up, the next two episodes are available right now. Thank you for listening.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
My dad's talking about something called an electromagnetic pulse, EMP for short, which if you've ever seen the movie Ocean's Eleven, it's what they use to pull off the casino heist.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
My dad says he's certain that sometime soon, technology like this will be used to wipe out all digital communication across the country. That's right. No cell service, no electricity, no George Clooney or Brad Pitt. Just the dark ages. I wouldn't describe my father as a paranoid person. I wouldn't even call him an anxious person. He's actually an optimist. He's very friendly and rarely serious.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
There's a lot of dad jokes. But dad and I have never been particularly close. Aside from watching Ohio State football games, there's not a lot we typically agree on. But lately, it feels like we can't even agree on reality. Like so many Americans, Dad's gotten swept up in conspiracy theories.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
He believes in chemtrails, that the government can control the weather, that January 6th was staged by what he calls the shadow government. Most of his theories connect back to an idea that a cabal he calls the globalists are secretly running the world.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
These days, we can barely get through a family dinner without him saying something that fast-tracks us into debate, usually while my mom and sister look the other way.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
One of the last times I was home, we got into it because Dad was complaining about YouTube removing a lot of the stuff he wants to watch.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Who gets the right to label it misinformation? These circular arguments never go anywhere. Nothing's ever resolved. So how do you reason with someone who's gone deep down the rabbit hole? And can you? A year ago, I decided to confront my father and tell him I thought he was being radicalized online. But as always, he didn't agree. But what he did next surprised me.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Dad texted me a photo of a sheet of paper where, in his barely legible cursive, he had written out a list of 10 predictions. 10 things that he was positive would all take place sometime in 2024, assuring me that when all of these things happened, I would see once and for all that he was right. At the bottom of the page was a challenge to a bet for $10,000.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
And let me just say, Dad and I are not big gamblers, nor are we rich. 10K is easily more money than either of us has ever wagered in our entire lives. Looking over the list, it was filled with politically apocalyptic predictions. And I remember being some combination of perplexed, horrified, and weirdly amused. The bet seemed really over the top. But I also saw it as an opportunity.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Instead of just arguing until the end of time, we were actually going to settle this. And now we had a deadline. January 1st, 2025. And hopefully that'd give me enough time to change his mind, bring him back to reality a little bit. That is, before his beliefs tear the family apart. From NPR's Embedded, I'm Zach Mack, and this is Alternate Realities.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
I can hear you. Can you hear me? When Dad first sent over his predictions, I quickly got him on the phone to discuss the terms. I could tell that both of us were excited to try something new. Do you have the list in front of you? Yeah. Can you walk me through the 1 through 10? Each one, I'll probably have a couple clarifying questions. Yeah, absolutely.
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Keep in mind that this call and these predictions all came back in January 2024. Number one, Obama...
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Okay. Number three. It went on like this. Dad's other predictions were that Nancy Pelosi would also be convicted of treason. Same for Bill and Hillary Clinton, who would go down for murder as well. That Trump would be reinstated without an election and cleared of all charges. That Biden would be removed from office. Same for both the governor and mayor of New York.
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Eventually, we landed on his final prediction for 2024, his boldest one.
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For the record, I was never actually excited about the possibility of this happening. For this one, do you think this will be happening all over the country, only in certain parts?
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
I am 100% confident. Dad's always been sure of himself, but he'd never said anything like this before. And now he was predicting the future with certainty.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
When I was growing up in the Bay Area, Dad was a lone Christian conservative in our family and social circle. My mother, on the other hand, is a fairly liberal Jewish woman, and my sister and I are generally on the same page as her. Dad's views have always been a point of tension, but for years they were easy to ignore because he usually kept pretty quiet about them.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
He barely ever mentioned politics, though I always knew he was skeptical of vaccines and that he hated the Clintons. Eventually, his beliefs became more extreme, and around 2019, my dad, who has never been very tech-savvy, got an iPad. And it wasn't long after that that he started saying weird things.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
One time when I was home visiting, we got into it because he tried to tell me that the government was controlling Facebook from the very beginning, and that Mark Zuckerberg was just a pawn. And when the pandemic hit, he started getting more outspoken, bristling at mask-wearing and refusing to get vaccinated.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Eventually, he came to believe that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, who he didn't even vote for in 2016. I've tried talking him out of this stuff for years. Occasionally, I've even tried getting ahead on what I know is inevitably coming his way. How much do you know about QAnon?
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
I know this. I thought if I could warn you about a thing in advance, you would understand what it was and understand that it was bullshit. But go on.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
While all this has been going on, there's been something else that's been causing a huge rift in the family. Two years ago, my sister Kira came out to my dad. My mom and I had known for years, but she was always afraid to tell dad because she thought he'd disapprove. It didn't go well.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
He said he'd always love my sister, that she was always welcome in the house, but he thought her being gay was a choice, a choice that he ultimately didn't agree with. These past two years have not been easy for the family, especially Kira.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
There's this lingering question of how our family is going to move forward when my sister doesn't feel supported. Then there's all the conspiracy stuff, which is especially hard for my mom.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Because my dad thinks the grid is going to go down, he started hoarding survivalist supplies. And I guess he went on a little shopping spree one time when my mom was out of town.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Dad's also worried the banks are going to collapse, so he wants to move big chunks of their money into things like platinum and silver. Mom was initially irritated by the bet because Dad didn't run it by her. But eventually, I could see her warming up to the idea of a deadline.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
It was still early on, but it was already starting to feel like Dad and I hadn't just made a friendly wager. Maybe we had just put our entire family on a collision course. One that could end with Dad in financial trouble, or estranged, or both.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
I'd been wondering the same thing for a long time. Where the hell is he getting all this from? And how is he so sure? After seeing dad's predictions, I started retracing his steps a bit. Curious about how he got here. He grew up in a deeply Christian household, but at some point in his younger years, he rebelled. And when my parents met in the 80s, neither of them were interested in religion.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
Sometime after I was born, that began to change. And as the years passed, Dad's faith deepened.
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Alternate Realities: A Strange Bet
During the pandemic, Dad started believing in prophecy, which is the idea that God still speaks through intermediaries. when you're talking about how God speaks today and, and you believe it's through prophets, that is a divisive within Christianity, right? That is a divisive thought.
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I remember my mom telling me about how when I was a child, dad didn't want me to get vaccinated. Mom wasn't having it, so I ended up getting all my shots. But I never really understood where dad's hangups came from. But now that we had some time to kill, I could ask him. I know throughout my lifetime, you have been distrusting of vaccines. Is that fair to say? Yeah. Yeah, that's definitely true.
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As a child? As a child. Back in the 60s, Dad was about to enter elementary school in Ohio, and there was a new law requiring vaccines.
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Oh, wow. So you didn't go to kindergarten? I did not go to kindergarten. Do you think your dad was, I don't know, how would you describe him? Would you describe him as stubborn?
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Dad was one of six children. The family was supported primarily by my grandpa, who had a small chiropractic business. That is, until the Ohio State Medical Board cracked down on him.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
The way dad tells it, after my grandfather's business dissolved, he was never able to recover.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
One of the things I remember most about my grandfather is how tall and thin he was and how one time when he came to visit us, his body had just completely changed. He had suddenly gained over 100 pounds in a very short amount of time. He was going through some mental health issues that the family never fully understood, and it was affecting his weight and his ability to sleep.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
My dad's talking about something called an electromagnetic pulse, EMP for short, which I only know about because it's what George Clooney uses in the movie Ocean's Eleven to pull off the casino heist.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
He wouldn't really sleep during the night, which meant that throughout the day, he would constantly fall asleep. He'd be in the middle of a conversation sometimes or even at dinner, and he'd just start snoring. Minutes later, he'd abruptly wake up and carry on as if nothing happened. This also began to happen while he was driving. My grandpa got into a number of car accidents.
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He totaled several cars and nearly killed my grandmother. He refused to stop driving and even went to a neighboring state to get a driver's license after his was taken away. He refused to admit anything was wrong. The family tried to talk to him. So did my father several times. And when that didn't work, and I'd never heard this part of the story before, dad tried something else.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Not long after this, I was 10 years old at the time, my parents called my sister and me into the kitchen to tell us something. But before they said anything, I already knew. My grandfather was dead. His vehicle veered off the road and flipped over. When I think about my grandfather, I think about how what caused his death may have been stubbornness, a refusal to listen to those around him.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
He was 68 years old, the same age my father was when he proposed our bed. As the year pressed on, we continued discussing dad's life and the things he'd come to believe. Turns out a lot of his predictions were coming from a single source online. And something you should know about my father is that he really struggles with technology. He can barely navigate the internet.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
A pinch is a device which creates like a cardiac arrest for any broadband electrical circuitry, an electromagnetic pulse which shuts down any power source within its blast radius.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
He can't even figure out how to access his own email account from his laptop. Around 2019, dad got an iPad and that felt like a turning point. It wasn't long until he started saying weird things. One time I was home visiting and we got into it because he was trying to tell me that the government was controlling Facebook from the very beginning and that Mark Zuckerberg was just a pawn.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
And when the pandemic hit, it felt like the perfect storm. Like so many of us, Dad went searching for answers.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
What Dad found was a lot of conspiracies, of course, but also the next evolution of his faith. During the pandemic, dad came to believe strongly in prophecy, the idea that God still speaks through intermediaries. When you're talking about how God speaks today and you believe it's through prophets, that is a divisive within Christianity, right? That is a divisive thought?
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I can't remember a single other time dad left me a message expressing a safety concern. But he was really convinced this was going to happen. At one point, he even did a little math for how much water I would need to survive.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Sure enough, Dad found someone he believes can commune directly with God.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Meet Julie Green, my dad's preferred prophet.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
She's not particularly big online, a couple hundred thousand subscribers, but she's part of a growing movement within Christianity that emphasizes spiritual warfare and politics. It's all very Trumpy and full of prophecies.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
As you can probably tell, this is where Dad's getting most of his predictions. And when I talk to Dad about these predictions, it's clear that for him, they all stem from his religious beliefs. Which I've always found somewhat confusing, because when I look at his list, none of these things seem to have anything to do with God at all. In July, some news.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
President Biden announced he was withdrawing as the Democratic nominee for president. I thought, what was dad's prediction again? Oh, he said removed from office. Guess I'm in the clear. As the years sped by, I read books with titles like When Prophecy Fails. I spoke to a number of clinicians and conspiracy experts, met my dad's pastors. I even interviewed several of his friends.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
None of them shared his beliefs, but they said they didn't really argue with him about it either. Only one said it hurt their friendship with dad. Sometimes I'd send dad highlights of articles debunking some of his more out-there claims. Like the one about how the Joe Biden you see on the news is actually a body double.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Yeah, I don't think they were, like, giving speeches and, you know, making policy on his behalf, though. You know what I'm saying?
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I think they were just, like, maybe, like, a quick appearance.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Well, first of all, Biden's listed height is 6 feet. Let's see what Netanyahu's height is.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
He looks a little taller. Well, but he's taller in every picture. This is a different place.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
They don't look the same height in this picture.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
They are the same height. Well, people lie about their heights all the time, right? So I'm sure, you know, Allen Iverson was always listed as 6'1". He was actually 5'10".
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
My fact checker wants me to point out here that we don't actually know Allen Iverson's real height or Netanyahu's height or whether or not Saddam Hussein had body doubles. But this is the joy of debating a conspiracy theorist. Inevitably, you run out of patience or just don't know the facts well enough to continue pushing back.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
So whenever I debate Dad, it feels like I can never do enough research or compile enough evidence. Later in the summer, I was reading a science journal and saw a possible way around that.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Okay, so just a little background. I wouldn't describe my father as a paranoid person. I wouldn't even call him an anxious person. He's actually an optimist and usually prefers to keep things light. So a lot of dad jokes. What else? He's held down the same job forever. He has friends, not close ones, but there's dudes he goes skiing and sailing with.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
This research group was doing some experiments where they had some conspiracy theorists engage in conversations with AI chatbots, which had all the facts, could push back gently, and unlike me, had infinite patience. The data on its effectiveness looked pretty promising, so I reached out and actually got them to program something special just for my dad to try, which he did for several minutes.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Swing and a miss, but the work continues. In August, Dad got it in his head that Kamala Harris was going to be replaced as a Democratic nominee at the convention. And out of nowhere, he made a second political conspiracy bet, this time with my mom. The terms. If Mom lost, she'd have to give up, as he put it, all mainstream media for the rest of the year.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
And if he lost, he'd have to stop watching Julie Green entirely, his favorite prophet. Much to mom and I's delight, he lost that bet a few days later when Harris officially accepted the nomination.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Yeah, drink up, buddy. So dad, so no more Julie Green till the end of the year?
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
It did feel like a relief that he wouldn't be watching Julie Green anymore. And him admitting he was wrong, that was something. By the fall, Dad and I were speaking more than ever, and in ways we never have. Do you feel like I know you now better?
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
And of course, football season was kicking off, so there were lots of calls and voicemails about Ohio State.
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Dad and I were getting along better than ever, but time on our bet was running out.
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You know, I don't think I ever asked you this, and I should have asked you. Why did you challenge me to this bet?
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Man, I didn't think about it that way. So it's sort of about you wanting me to get closer to God. Yeah. I mean, I think that's very touching. I think you're like super wrong about all these predictions, but that your reasoning is very touching.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
When I was growing up, dad was kind of in his own world. Mom was always the more involved parent, the one who knew all my friends and whatever was going on with me. Dad and I have never been particularly close. Typically, when I hear from him on the phone, it's during an Ohio State football game.
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Like I, I, I appreciate that anyways. Okay. I'm, I'm going to, let's, let's end on a high note.
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Well, I can't handle you saying things like that. It's too nice. It's too sweet. It's too sweet. I appreciate it, Dan. It's actually been really nice talking to you, too. All right. All right. Take care. You too. Good night. As we stretch into November, dad, mom and I got hit with some sad news.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
After a year of nearly no contact with my father, my sister informed the family that she wouldn't be coming home for the holidays, which in my lifetime, I count only three times we've ever missed the holidays together. Why aren't you coming home for Christmas?
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I don't know either. The bet was nearly over, but it felt like our family was barely hanging on. Then December came. It was just days before Christmas, days before I was flying home, and Mom called me with another update. Hey, how are you?
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
We both love the Buckeyes, so during a game, he'll call me like five or six times, but not much beyond games, though. Ohio State football is like the one thing we can't agree on. The thing we can't seem to agree on is reality. Like so many people, dad's gotten swept up in conspiracies.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
She began to fill me in. The night before, Mom and Dad were talking about the state of the family over dinner.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
After 40 years of marriage, they had agreed to separate and for my dad to move out. Dad's beliefs around Kira, the conspiracies, it had just become too much.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Lately, he's been talking about chemtrails, that the government can control the weather, that January 6th was staged by what he calls the deep state. As he's gotten more extreme in the last few years, I've seen my mom and sister retract and shut down around him. I'm typically the one who challenges dad on this stuff. Because I'm a reporter, I can't resist taking the bait.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
So this was the situation I flew home to. Things felt weird. I spent the week crashing at friends' houses and in hotels. Mom slept in Kira's room. Christmas Day, as you can imagine, was sad. There were no gifts exchanged. Mom and I just went to the movies and ate Chinese food. I'm not even sure what my father or sister got up to that day.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
A few days later, Dad said he was ready to sit down and close out the bet.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I know this sounds crazy because as bad as things had gotten, dad was still excited about settling up. I had no idea what he was going to say, but as we often are, we started off pretty playfully, which is our way of postponing the hard stuff.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Well, at least so far we're sharing a reality. I'm just going to go through the list for your 10 predictions for the year. We'll start there. We'll start with the easy ones. There's four that can easily be grouped together, and that is... Barack Obama will be convicted of treason. Joe Biden will be convicted of treason. Nancy Pelosi convicted of treason.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
The Clintons convicted of treason and murder. Right? Those are all kind of... I would group them categorically. I began. No investigations, no charges, no convictions, literally no momentum of any kind. And...
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
If you're keeping score at home, that's four for me. All right, next one. You said Trump will be reinstated without an election. Trump won re-election. He was not reinstated without an election. That's five. Next prediction. Trump will have all charges dropped. On May 30th, 2024, Trump was found guilty and convicted on 34 felony charges in the New York hush money trial. Yeah.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
To be fair to dad, charges in two other cases were dropped, but dad's prediction was all charges. So that makes six for me. Moving on. Next one. You said Governor Hochul, the governor of New York, would be removed from office. Governor Hochul is currently in office with no charges being brought against her. She will be up for reelection in 2026. That is correct. Seven, onto the home stretch.
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Biden will be removed from office. So Biden's still in the White House. You're not rebutting that.
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And we're back to body doubles. But even still, he conceded the point. So that's eight. OK, then there's Eric Adams, the mayor of New York, who dad predicted would be removed from office, which still might happen. But dad said by the end of 2024. As it stands right now, he's still the mayor. Right. Tough break, but that makes nine. Okay, last one. Our country would come under martial law.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
As far as I know, that didn't happen.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
So your explanation for why these things did not yet come to pass is that you just got the timeline wrong. Yes. We're sort of starting where we're ending, which is you still believe what you believe, and I still believe that that's false.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Of course, it never goes anywhere. Until a year ago. After a family blowout over the holidays that was so bad my sister and I left early, I decided to confront my father. I could see how his beliefs were starting to strain the family, and I worried that pretty soon, there may be no coming back for him. I told him I thought he was being radicalized online and pleaded with him to hear me.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I had waited for so long to hear him say the magic words we agreed to a year ago. Now the moment finally came.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
And you were correct. To tell you the truth, hearing this was completely unsatisfying because I knew he didn't really believe it. I had won the bet, but it didn't really feel like winning. I just see sort of an unwillingness for you to be wrong.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
You see how you prefaced it. Not that you're wrong about them. You're just wrong about the timeline.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Sure, but it's a half measure. It's a way for you to be right. I can't say I was surprised. All year long, I had read about how unlikely it is to pull someone away from these kinds of beliefs. How when believers of a prophecy witness it not come to pass, that oftentimes they inexplicably double down, which was exactly what he was doing.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
All of these beliefs, it feels like you're really holding on to them, and I'm not sure why.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I was getting nowhere and it was frustrating. But I thought, this is history repeating itself. Surely he could see that, right? One of the things I've thought a lot about during this process is like, is your dad and what happened to him? And in the face of so many people around him, including yourself, saying, hey, you're going down the wrong road. Like, don't do this. Please listen.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
And he wouldn't. He wouldn't hear it. from anyone okay and it cost him his life i see a lot of parallels with what's happening right now interesting i you know i don't think you're at risk of physical danger so much yeah i think you're at risk of a lot of other things like what Financial ruin. I think you're at risk of being ostracized and completely left out of this family dynamic.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I feel like the closest friends in your life, your family, the people around you are telling you, hey, you're going the wrong way and you're not listening.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
So if all those people told you, would you hear them? I would listen to him.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I would argue that you do. I mean, look at the state of our family right now. And I think we've gotten to this place in large part because of your beliefs.
This American Life
854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
As always, he didn't agree. But what he did next surprised me. Dad texted me a photo of a sheet of paper where, in his barely legible cursive, he had written out a list of 10 predictions. 10 things that he was positive would all take place sometime in 2024, assuring me that when all of these things happened, I would see once and for all that he was right.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Yeah. But I would say that's when you got radicalized. Yeah. I don't think ultimately Mom, Kira, and I have changed a lot ideologically since that time. I don't think you're in the same place.
This American Life
854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Let's talk about mom for a second.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I mean, I guess she would say that about you.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I agree. I watched his frustration rise as he came up empty over and over, slowly realizing there was no fixing this. I mean, look, I think this year has been difficult, especially recently. I do feel like we are getting along really well. I do feel conflicted because as that's happening, you and mom are getting separated and Kira's not home for Christmas.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
And those are all because of your beliefs.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
But I think Kira does feel rejected. She does not feel fully accepted by you.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
At the bottom of the page was a challenge to a bet for $10,000. And let me just say, Dad and I are not big gamblers, nor are we rich. 10K is easily more money than either of us has ever wagered. Looking over the list, I was a combination of surprised, horrified, and also, it was a little hard to take seriously. I immediately called him up to discuss the terms of the bet.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
As the conversation wound down, I let go of any notion that I could convince him of anything. I was finally ready to stop struggling and just accept the truth. I couldn't help him. I just want to say I do really appreciate... Oh, man. It's been, it's been a hard year, man. Yeah. I mean, I appreciate the conversations we've had all year. Like I've, I do feel, I don't know.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I feel closer to you than I ever have. And I'm, I'm really sad about the state of this family. But I do appreciate your openness, your willingness to... You never ducked a hard question.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I don't know. I mean, where do you think we'll be next Christmas? Christmas.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I have one final question for you. How are you going to pay me? Check. Should we go to the bank? Should I get one of those giant golf checks?
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Let's do it. We made the bed a year ago, but I've waited a lot longer than that to have this conversation with him. All right. Let's get a hug.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
As we stood there hugging, I just broke down.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I don't know what comes next, where the family goes from here. It felt like things fell apart so quickly, but also slowly over many years. I think in many ways, I'm the one who got off the easiest. I'm still in good standing with everyone, which makes me feel a mixture of relief and guilt. And if you're wondering, yes, I took the money. Absolutely. Okay. We're walking to the Rose Bowl. Yeah.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
How do you feel? But on New Year's Day, the day my dad officially lost the bet, I took him to go see Ohio State, our favorite football team, play in the Rose Bowl.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Yet another prediction my father got wrong, by the way. But they did win. Go Buckeyes. Let's go!
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
It felt good to treat dad with his own money and to agree on the one reality we've always shared. Football. Maybe the only one we ever will. As I watched the clock run down, I knew that the moment the game was over, we'd have to face the fact that, as a family, in the end, we didn't make it.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Do you have the list in front of you? Yeah, yeah. Can you walk me through the 1 through 10? I just want to add, each one, I'll probably have a couple clarifying questions. Yeah, absolutely. Keep in mind, this call took place back in January 2024. Number one, Obama...
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Yes. Okay. Not the court of public opinion. Correct. Okay.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I don't know if that's a joke. I'm not sure.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
It went on like this, all political. Dad's other predictions were that Nancy Pelosi would also be convicted of treason. Same for Bill and Hillary Clinton, who would go down for murder as well. That Trump would be reinstated without an election and cleared of all charges. That Biden would be removed from office. Same for both the governor and mayor of New York.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
And as a New York City resident, I didn't hate that last one. You know, that one, I'm actually kind of hopeful we get that one because I don't really love Eric Adams. He's kind of an idiot. So I'm with you on that one.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Eventually, we landed on his final prediction for 2024, his boldest one.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Yeah, it's an exciting one. It's probably the most exciting one.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
For the record, I was never actually excited about the possibility of this happening. Do you think this will be happening all over the country, only in certain parts?
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Because this is like a pretty, this is a pretty huge shakeup. Yeah. I would say our country hasn't seen anything like this since the Civil War, probably.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
I mean, I think the way you've laid it out here, there'll be a pretty clear case of, like, who's right and who's wrong.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Yeah, but look, this isn't just about the money, right? I would like to make some positive strides for our family.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Deal. Happy to do it. And so our strange bet was on. I saw Dad's challenge as an opening. Instead of just arguing until the end of time, we were actually going to settle this. And now we had a deadline. New Year's 2025. The moment I saw his proposal, I knew I had him beat. And for the very first time, he'd have to admit he was wrong.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
All I had to do was wait 12 months, and once he decisively lost, I figured he'd be more open to my version of the truth. And maybe I could pull him back to reality a bit. And the timing for the bet couldn't be better because his beliefs were starting to tear our family apart.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
This all started about a year ago. My father called and left me this message.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Not long after making the bed, I called my mom. My parents had been married for 40 years. They met in their 20s in Chicago, fell in love, and moved to California, where they eventually had my sister and I. We grew up in the San Francisco Bay Area, a pretty liberal place, which worked for my mom because she's a pretty liberal Jewish woman.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Dad has always been the odd man out, the lone Christian conservative. Though growing up, he was much quieter about his beliefs. And when my parents met, neither of them were religious. But Dad got back into it when I was young. Now he's very into it. That's been difficult for my parents for decades. But now with the conspiracy stuff emerging, it's been really hard on my mom.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Because dad's worried the banks are going to collapse, he wants to move big chunks of their money into things like platinum and silver. Why is he so unwilling to listen to everyone around him?
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Have you been clear with him about that?
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Mom was initially irritated by the bed because dad didn't run it by her first, which happens a lot. But the idea of a deadline, that was starting to make sense to her.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Later, I called my sister Kira about the bet. Unfortunately, she's been having her own conflict with Dad, also about his beliefs. Two years ago, Kira came out to him. My mom and I had known for years, but Kira was always afraid to tell Dad because she thought he'd disapprove. It didn't go well.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
He said he'd always loved my sister, but he thought she was choosing to be gay, and he didn't agree with that choice.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Kira and I are close. And when I told her about the bet, she liked the idea of forcing Dad to confront the reality that some of his beliefs are likely wrong. But we weren't sure if that helped her situation either way.
This American Life
854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
So dad and I had a year. January came and went, and neither of us put any points on the board with the bet. Then in February, Dad caught a small break with Mayor Adams. He had been under investigation for months, and things were heating up. The FBI raided one of his advisors, and someone else pled guilty to conspiracy charges. Seemed like Dad could actually win that one.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
Then in March, the New York governor sent the National Guard into the subway, which, if you squint, could look like the pretense to martial law. While we waited for the other predictions to come true or not, I tried to make the most of the time. I found myself thinking back to something Dad said to me at the end of an argument once a few years back. He said, well, you don't really know me.
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854: Ten Things I Don't Want to Hate About You
And I wondered if he might be right, that maybe I didn't really know him. And if I had any hope of changing his mind or even nudging the trajectory of his beliefs, I would need to understand my father better. So I decided to make a project of it. One question I still had was how he'd even gotten here. Though, looking back, there were signs.
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They have both made the decision to back further and further away from him, which feels like a natural consequence of his actions and his beliefs. You know, my sister and dad are not really speaking at the moment. And my mom... moved into a different bedroom. You know, she's been sleeping in a different bedroom and now they are in the process of getting separated.
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So 40 years of marriage and she's backing away and my sister is backing away. And yeah, that's the state of things at the moment.
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He's struggling to understand how we got here himself. And he feels like we are being very judgmental of him and his beliefs.
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Yeah, I think it's not just as simple as we're judging him for his beliefs. We're also judging him for his actions. And some of the actions that come along with these beliefs are things like, you know, he's been hoarding survivalist supplies. He's been, you know, there's several generators in my parents' home now. And he's moved some of their money around.
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without consulting my mom into things like precious metals, because he thinks the banks are going to collapse. So some of this stuff comes along with real actions and she feels like she can't trust this person. And there's also just the, just the real fundamental differing of reality and, and, sort of their inability to exist in the same reality.
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And I understand why you would want to back away from a person who you have nothing in common with about the way you see the world. It doesn't mean we don't love him. It doesn't mean we don't care about him. But I do think there just got to be a breaking point.
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if they're going through something similar, if they know someone in a, in this situation that this show helps their ability to, to understand what's happening in the world, what's happening with people who have gotten caught up in some of these ideas, learn how to talk to them a little differently or understand them a little bit better to, to be curious, to ask questions that it doesn't always have to be an argument.
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Um, But also that there does need to be accountability for beliefs and actions as well. But this show was made with as much love as I could put into it.
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Yeah, so I grew up in the East Bay, like San Francisco Bay Area, right next to Berkeley, Oakland. Very middle class, me, mom, sister, public schools. I guess one of the wrinkles in my upbringing is that my mom is a liberal Jewish woman and my dad is a increasingly conservative Christian.
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So growing up, I went to both temple and church, and my parents always sort of had very differing ideologies about the world.
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So growing up, he never really talked about politics. He never really expressed much interest in them. But I did know that he was always sort of skeptical about vaccines. I did know that he hated the Clintons and that he generally voted Republican for And then I think around 2019, he got an iPad.
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And I specifically remember in 2019, him trying to tell me that Mark Zuckerberg wasn't really the creator of Facebook, that the government was really behind Facebook. And then once the pandemic hit, it was like really starting up with the Bill Gates conspiracies and vaccines and all that stuff, I think is when things really started to change.
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Yeah, yeah. So a year ago, we sort of had a big family blowout over Christmas. Things were not going very well within the family. And shortly after that, I confronted him about some of his beliefs. And I said, hey, I think you're being radicalized online. And his response to that was to send me a list of 10 predictions that he said would all take place sometime in 2024.
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and challenge me to a bet for $10,000 that all 10 of these predictions would happen within the year. And when they do, I will see once and for all that he's right.
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These are reality. He had outlined all of these predictions, and it was all sort of pointing to some massive government upheaval that he thought was going to take place sometime in 2024. You know, it was like Trump was going to be reinstated without an election. People like Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi would all be convicted of treason, that our country would come under martial law.
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It was all these like very politically apocalyptic type events that he thought would be taking place within the year.
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Yeah, so he got into, during the pandemic, he got into these like self-proclaimed prophets online. And he had really glommed onto this woman named Julie Green. And she was saying all this stuff about, you know, government upheaval and all these, you know, people will be going down for treason and martial law and that there'd be, you know, EMP blackouts throughout the country. Just all this stuff.
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She sits in an office chair in a drab-looking room and rattles off a lot of prophecies.
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She's part of a growing movement within Christianity that emphasizes spiritual warfare and politics.
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Dad told me he found her a couple years ago and watches her three to four times a week.
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Yeah, so this all sort of comes through his faith and his understanding of faith. And he believes deeply now in prophets and just the understanding that God is continuing to speak through people through prophets the way he did in the Old Testament, right? And his belief through prophets comes through that. He explained it to me once.
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things with the family had already become so strained that we were in a tough spot when all of this started. And I think for my dad, when I first posed the idea, right when he sent me the bet and his predictions, I said, you know, I would like to interview you over the course of the year, and maybe I could turn this into a podcast about how the year went. And he was excited.
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First of all, he thought he was going to be right about everything. So I think he was sort of excited to share that news and prove me wrong in a public way. So my dad was excited and has been supportive throughout the process. And my mom and sister, they were also supportive of because I think they just felt like things had gotten so bad. This couldn't really make things worse.
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And maybe it could help, right? Maybe it could help him see himself differently and also sort of be held accountable with these beliefs, right? Now he was on the hook. This stuff had to come true by the end of 2024, or he was going to be wrong. He was going to lose the bet. So
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It sort of was like a Hail Mary play at the end of the game to one last chance to try to salvage the family and see if we could change his mind about some of this stuff.
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Yeah, there's been quite a bit of difficulties within the family. Obviously, just the differing beliefs between my mom and father, different ideologies, has always been a point of tension within the family. But as he has gotten increasingly into conspiracy theories, that's really been hard for my mom. She just does not buy into any of this stuff.
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So that's been really difficult to sort of see her husband really not share the same reality as her. And then my sister is dealing with a little bit of a different conflict, which is she is queer, and she came out to him a couple of years ago, and that just did not go well. He's not been particularly supportive of her sexuality.
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And so that has just been a great point of tension in the family as well.
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Yeah, they've been together for 40 years and it has just, it has gotten really hard for her. I think she's put up with a lot over the years and now it's sort of starting to reach a breaking point for her.
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I've wrestled with it from day one, whether or not this is a good idea. I wish I could tell you that I'm absolutely positive that it still is. But I... I thought that it was a story that would really resonate with people. I thought that my situation in a lot of ways was not unique and that families all across the country are sort of experiencing something similar.
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That conspiracy theories have just become so rampant and pervasive in society, misinformation, all that stuff.
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so I thought a lot of people would connect to it and you know throughout the process I've just had the full support of my family all of them participated at no point did anyone back out or say you shouldn't do this everyone has been supportive and so that's helped quite a bit but yeah it's tough I'm not used to making personal stories I'm not used to reporting on my own family it has been a challenging experience
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Well, when we first made the bet, my dad made me promise that at the end, I would say once he had won and all these things happened that I would say, wow, dad, you were right and I was wrong. And I said, okay, but you have to say that to me if I'm right. And he agreed to that.
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So at the end of the year, when I was 10 and 0 and he was over 10 on his predictions, obviously I made him say that back to me.
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I wish I could tell you that dad changed his mind and that the family was able to heal. However... You're really prefacing that.
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So your explanation for why these things did not yet come to pass is that you just got the timeline wrong.
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Unfortunately, but unsurprisingly, Dad turned to the failed prophecy playbook. He blamed it on the timeline. We were right back where we started. You still believe what you believe, and I still believe that that's false.
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Dad's not changing. It's not the outcome I was hoping for, but here we are. So now what? What happens to Kira? What happens to mom? And where does that leave me? The bet was over, but we still needed to assess the damage and see if dad was willing to take any steps towards repair. So as you can see, even though he lost and acknowledged that he lost, he still is not coming away from these beliefs.
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He still thinks that he's correct and that these things will just happen later on. This is the thing that happens. I read a lot of research and books about these types of doomsday cults or prophets or big predictions. And when they inevitably don't happen, The excuse is often, oh, we just got the timeline wrong and it's just going to happen next year or in two years or however long.
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But yeah, you can see that he's not backing away from any of this stuff, which, you know, was disappointing. It's really unfortunate and it's going to cause problems. continued problems for the family.