Richard Rubin
Appearances
Apple News Today
The GOP’s tug-of-war over spending cuts
Part of that report clearly said, look, we're concerned that the proposals that are coming out of this Congress and administration does not make significant, meaningful changes.
Apple News Today
The GOP’s tug-of-war over spending cuts
The concern is that the more the U.S. government is borrowing, it'll be harder to have investment capital for new factories, new homes, new whatever. And it can drive up interest rates. And those interest rates obviously go into what you're paying on credit cards and mortgages and those kinds of things.
Apple News Today
The GOP’s tug-of-war over spending cuts
And they would also argue that other parts of the Trump agenda, the deregulation, oil and gas production, are also going to generate growth. And they're saying, basically, if you take all of that growth, the growth caused by this bill and the growth that will happen outside this bill, that will increase the economy so much, then throw off enough revenue and basically cover the cost.
Apple News Today
The GOP’s tug-of-war over spending cuts
The way they're thinking about it is the extension of the tax cuts won't get felt much at all because it's just keeping the status quo. These things are scheduled to expire where people are very much used to them. So Republicans clearly are concerned about deficits, but they also view an expiration of the tax cuts as scheduled at the end of this year as completely untenable.
Apple News Today
The winners and losers of the GOP tax bill
They're trying to extend all of the tax cuts that are expiring at the end of this year, the ones they passed in 2017, but temporarily. They're trying to add some new tax breaks in addition to that.
Apple News Today
The winners and losers of the GOP tax bill
Does that change, you know, does it hit beneficiaries, does it hit providers, does it hit hospitals? I mean, there's a lot of concern about what a shrinking flow of funding might mean for rural hospitals in particular. And so I think that's something that we're still getting analysis on.
Apple News Today
The winners and losers of the GOP tax bill
It's an incredibly difficult job that House Speaker Mike Johnson has, right? Like he's got all of these different factions who know that for all intents and purposes, this is their one big beautiful shot to write legislation with a Republican majority. So they want to make sure that they get something that they can live with.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
I covered that bill in 2017. And when it passed, they set all these tax cuts, the rates, the standard reduction, the child credit to expire after 2025. And I was like, OK, well, I know what I'm doing in 2025. And here I am in 2025 covering the extension of those things.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
They see this as a moment to really go out and lock those in. That's the core of what this bill is.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
The new stuff, they really are focusing on not people at the very bottom of the income scale who don't pay income taxes now, but people in the middle. So there is a higher standard deduction on top of the additional standard deduction. There is a child tax credit goes to $2,500 per child maximum.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
The version that the House Rules Committee has posted is just over a thousand pages.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
The extra standard deduction for senior citizens, people 65 and over, goes up by several thousand dollars if this passes.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
tax credits for wind, solar, battery manufacturing, all those kinds of things, you know, finish sooner and phase out faster. And so that's also part of the way that they're paying for this.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
The Medicaid changes include work requirements for recipients.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
Yeah, or that you're seeking work or doing some sort of work-type activity if you're able-bodied. So that's part of it. There's new limits on nutrition assistance, what we call SNAP or food stamps. There's some limits on that, but that's part of the bill.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
Republicans are talking about the tax cuts as essential. The idea of extending the tax cuts is basically non-negotiable. It's something that they really feel is imperative economically, something they need to do. The spending changes, the spending cuts are something they also feel is an imperative to turn the tide on budget deficits, to try and rein in spending.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
Their argument is that Biden and Democrats overspend and they need to start reining that in.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
We're going to need a very large nutshell for this. This is an attempt to roll a bunch of Republican priorities into one piece of legislation. Basically, they've got so many different factions of the party that everyone can get something.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
So there are, I think, a few different groups of holdouts, and we'll take them in turn. One is the conservative hardline holdouts, people like Chip Roy of Texas, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, Josh Burkine of Oklahoma, and Ralph Norman of South Carolina. They're concerned about spending, largely. They think that the bill doesn't do enough to rein in spending.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
They're concerned that the work requirements for Medicaid start too late, right? That it's backloaded and that a future Congress might just come in and change that. And so they want to accelerate that probably to 2027. They're concerned that the clean energy tax breaks don't go away fast enough, right? There's sort of a ramp down.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
And, you know, if you set a 2031 date for the final phase out of certain energy tax credits, that lobbies will come and the next Congress will come and Trump will be out of office and there will be opportunities to extend those dates further out.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
And even if there are parts of it that they don't like, that everyone will be on board for the one big, beautiful bill that represents the core of Trump's agenda.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
Clean energy projects, though it was passed by Democrats, have largely happened in Republican districts because that's where there's open land. It tends to be more rural. So wind, solar factories tend to be... more tenable and more feasible in those places as opposed to, you know, in Manhattan.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
And so vast phase-out would hurt those projects that are happening and jobs and investment that are happening in those districts. So you've got those sort of moderate, more moderate members of the Republican conference who are very concerned about that. And so you've got a push and pull, as you can see with the hardliners.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
The more they raise that cap, the more that people who pay lots of state and local taxes can deduct those taxes from their federal income and pay less to the federal government. Republican plan, as it currently stands, raises that tax deduction limit of $10,000 to $30,000. And they said, no, $30,000 is not enough. That can be, you know, property taxes are really high.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
This is a very sort of symbolic issue now in those areas. And they're saying they will kill the bill if they don't get more.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
Yes. Oh, no, you're absolutely seeing the divides in the party over spending, over taxes, over energy, over Medicaid, over health care broadly. Yes, it's all on display here in the House of Representatives.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
They've got to find a number that satisfies those SALT members, the New York, New Jersey members. They've got to somehow get them on board, or at least enough of them. They've got to figure out how to get the hardliners satisfied without losing votes on the moderate side. So on Medicaid and the clean energy stuff.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
That's the hope that they have. I mean, one alternate theory is there is no space, right? That's the fear, I think, is that and Johnson is eternally optimistic and confident that he can make magic happen here.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
The Senate is not going to just take this and rubber stamp it. The Senate's got its own ideas, its own personalities, its own factions, its own divides, its own priorities. And that's really the next phase of what happened. And so as important as this week is, it is just that step. And then the Senate will have its say.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
It's a test for Trump. Can he get everybody together? But it's also a moment for those members to kind of decide how far they're willing to push up against where the rest of the party and the president are going.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
It matters because it's the government pulling back a little bit on the protections it provides for low-income people and the government pulling back on taxes across the board, both, you know, for middle-income households like we've talked about and people at the top who get to continue having the tax cuts they've been having.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
The last time that Republicans really made a dent in these sort of entitlement mandatory programs was nearly 30 years ago. And so a lot has happened since then. And that, I think, is a real signal that there's a willingness and an interest to do those kinds of changes. It's a signal of how far Republicans can be willing to go on the spending side.
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
The changes in Medicaid, in nutrition assistance, in agriculture, whatever those end up being, whatever those spending changes end up being, they're a sign of what the Republican Party itself is capable of doing. This is not Republicans pressuring a Democratic president into accepting things. This is
The Journal.
Can the GOP Unite Around Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
the purest distillation of what this Republican Party at this moment with these slim majorities can produce.
WSJ What’s News
Why Americans Are Turning to Discount Stores
The House bill has these Medicaid cuts and you've got senators like Josh Hawley and Susan Collins on the Republican side who want to soften those a little bit. The House bill phases out the clean energy tax credits very quickly and there are senators like Tom Tillis of North Carolina who want to slow that down a little bit.
WSJ What’s News
Why Americans Are Turning to Discount Stores
But there is a chance that that CBO estimate could rise after the bill passes through the Senate. That's one of the real questions. Does the Senate feel constrained by the House agreement to keep that deficit number at 2.4-ish trillion? The Senate could make that deficit number bigger and just say, okay, fine, we'll just have fewer spending cuts or more tax cuts and it's fine.
WSJ What’s News
Why Americans Are Turning to Discount Stores
Das führt zu dem Risiko, in der Haustür zu verlieren und sogar in der Senate zu verlieren, weil es keine konservativen Mitglieder mehr gibt, die sich um die Defizite interessieren.
WSJ What’s News
Why Americans Are Turning to Discount Stores
Sie können auch Wege finden, um die Kosten zu beheben, sowohl echte, wie auch andere Spendenkosten, oder Taxingröße, oder indem sie sagen, oh, es wird den ökonomischen Wachstum erhöhen, und wir nehmen also an, dass ein Gewinn von dem kommt. Sie haben also eine Reihe von Chancen, wie sie den Bill ändern und dann darüber sprechen, wie sie den Bill ändern. That was WSJ Reporter Richard Rubin.
WSJ What’s News
What’s in President Trump’s Tax Bill as it Heads to the Senate
This bill is a combination of, weirdly, tax cuts, tax increases, spending cuts, and spending increases. It extends the expiring 2017 tax cuts, which laps at the end of this year, and adds some new tax cuts, versions of the no tax on tips and overtime and Social Security benefits. some business tax provisions in there. It also increases taxes.
WSJ What’s News
What’s in President Trump’s Tax Bill as it Heads to the Senate
It limits itemized deductions for some high earners, and it repeals or phases out very quickly some tax credits for clean energy. It's got spending cuts, so Medicaid and nutrition assistance programs in particular will have less money, more frequent eligibility checks, more cost-sharing, pushing some costs to states, and some new work requirements for Medicaid in particular for able-bodied people.
WSJ What’s News
What’s in President Trump’s Tax Bill as it Heads to the Senate
And then the custom spending increases. There's more money in there for border security and for national defense. And so this is a mishmash. It really is just sort of smushing as many administration and Republican priorities into one piece of legislation as they possibly can.
WSJ What’s News
What’s in President Trump’s Tax Bill as it Heads to the Senate
The Republicans have a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate, so they've got three votes to spare because the vice president can break a tie. The Senate is off next week for Memorial Day, so they'll return in June and get cranking on this. The ultimate goal is to get this to President Trump's desk by July 4th. That's a bit of a stretch. In some ways, the real deadline may be the end of July when...
WSJ What’s News
What’s in President Trump’s Tax Bill as it Heads to the Senate
We're approaching the debt limit, the need to raise the debt limit. I do expect some changes in the Senate, and we've heard that from senators today. They've got some concerns about the clean energy tax breaks. They've got some concerns about Medicaid. Some want more spending cuts. Some want fewer spending cuts. That said, senators have been working with the House all along.
WSJ What’s News
What’s in President Trump’s Tax Bill as it Heads to the Senate
So the House bill does already reflect some Senate priorities, but there are going to be some changes.
WSJ What’s News
U.S. Stocks Fall Sharply as Global Economic Outlook Remains Uncertain
This is really just the framework, the blueprint for what the president calls his one big, beautiful bill. And so it sets the basic budget parameters that will then allow them to write real legislation in the next couple of months that extends tax cuts, adds more tax cuts, cuts some spending, adds spending on border security and national defense.
WSJ What’s News
U.S. Stocks Fall Sharply as Global Economic Outlook Remains Uncertain
— What exactly that all looks like is very much not known right now. We know the contours and the outlines, and this provides kind of the structure for it. But this is really, as a lot of lawmakers emphasize, just that first step.