Kim Kahn
Appearances
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
However, the automaker soon faced serious allegations of fraud, leading to investigations by regulatory bodies, and the resignation of Milton as executive chairman. On the economic front, January housing starts dropped 9.8% month-on-month to a $1.366 million annual rate, worse than the $1.39 million consensus and down from $1.515 million in the prior month.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
Building permits unexpectedly inched up 0.1% sequentially to an annual rate of $1.483 million compared with the $1.46 million forecast.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Alleman says the decline in housing starts is going to put downward pressure on residential investment during the first quarter of the year, and it's in line with our view that economic growth during the year will be weaker than in 2024.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
Among active stocks, Solanese is the biggest S&P decliner after the maker of specialty materials and chemicals reported a quarterly loss. The company is grappling with weak demand for the automotive, paints, and industrial sectors that is expected to last into 2025. CEO Scott Richardson said, Even if fundamental demand remains flat or declines further.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
SolarEdge is rallying despite reporting a large unexpected Q4-adjusted loss as revenues edged past estimates and free cash flow turned positive in Q4. The company said it expects to maintain positive free cash flow in 2025 and provide inline revenue guidance for Q1. And Wedbush says demand for Nvidia's Blackwell GPUs remains much stronger than supply despite the recent deep-seek noise.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Wednesday, February 19th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. Nikola pulls the plug. The EV maker announced that it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and also filed a motion seeking authorization to pursue an auction and sale process.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
Analyst Dan Ives said, "...we believe demand is far outstripping supply with Blackwell in the field, and after speaking with many enterprise AI customers, we have seen not one AI enterprise deployment slow down or change due to the deep-seek situation. No customer wants to lose their place in line as it is described to us for NVIDIA's next-gen chips."
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
In other news of note, Apple unveiled its highly-awaited iPhone 16e. That's aimed at consumers looking for a more affordable iPhone experience. The new iPhone, which is available starting on February 28th, offers Apple intelligence, Apple's A18 chip, and better battery life, up to six hours longer than iPhone 11, and up to 12 hours longer than all generations of iPhone SE.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
It has a 48-megapixel 2-in-1 camera system and also offers the all-new Apple CI chip, the first cellular modem designed by Apple. The modems of previous iPhones were designed by Qualcomm. The iPhone 16e sports Face ID and has wireless charging and a USB-C connection. It starts at $599.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
Subject to court approval, Nikola intends to continue certain limited directly provided service and support operations for trucks currently in the field. That includes certain HYLA fueling operations through the end of March. Nikola goes into Chapter 11 with about $47 million in cash on hand to fund the foregoing activities.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
And in the Wall Street Research Corner, let's take a little detour to the popular world of ETFs, where Vu has toppled SPY. The SPYder S&P 500 ETF Trust, ticker SPY, which was the first-ever U.S.-listed ETF, has been bested by its arch-rival in terms of assets under management.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, ticker VOO, had nearly $632 billion in asset under management, compared to the $630 billion of SPY as of Tuesday. Not far behind is the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, ticker IVV, which has $609 billion of assets under management based on its share count. Investors and financial advisors are getting more price conscious, especially in the era of DIY investing.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
The low-cost VU and IVV feature an expense ratio of just 0.03%. That compares to the 0.095% expense ratio of State Street's SPY. But SPY does offer better liquidity and spreads for trading and options. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash WSB.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
And join the highest level discussion of any stock or ETF with our community of serious investors like you. Find us at seekingalpha.com slash subscriptions.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
Implement the post-petition sale process and exit Chapter 11 through a plan process. Given the company's liquidity profile and the anticipated expense of the cases and limited operations in Chapter 11, the company intends to request authority from the court to consummate a sale of its assets on a timeline that balances the liquidity needs.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
CEO Steve Grisky says, like other companies in the electric vehicle industry, we have faced various market and macroeconomic factors that have impacted our ability to operate. In recent months, we have taken numerous actions to raise capital, reduce our liabilities, clean up our balance sheet, and preserve cash to sustain our operations.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
Unfortunately, our very best efforts have not been enough to overcome these significant challenges, and the board has determined that Chapter 11 represents the best possible path forward under the circumstances for the company and its stakeholders. Nikola was founded in 2014 by Trevor Milton in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Wall Street Breakfast
EV maker Nikola files for bankruptcy
The company set a goal to revolutionize the transportation industry with a focus on zero-emission vehicles. In its early years, Nikola garnered significant investor attention with the unveiling of the first hydrogen-electric semi-truck prototype, the Nikola One, in 2016. Nikola went public on June 4, 2020, through a merger with Vecto IQ Acquisition Corp.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
The optimistic forecasts are based on hopes that the new Model Y will be well-received and that a sub-$30,000 model will finally be introduced. Also in the mix, full-scale production of the CyberCab could boost Tesla's deliveries numbers significantly in 2026 if demand for the two-seat robo-taxi without a steering wheel takes off.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
In addition, sales of Tesla's China-made electric vehicles fell 11.5% year-on-year in March amid intense competition. Tesla sold 78,828 China-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the month, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association, but that was up sharply from the 30,688 units sold in February.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
On the economic front, ahead of Friday's jobs report, ADP said private sector employment climbed by 155,000 in March, topping the 120,000 consensus and almost double the 84,000 added in February. But ADP's track record has been dismal in predicting the official figures.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
Among active stocks, BlackBerry was under pressure after the company issued an outlook for fiscal 2026 that fell short of Wall Street's estimates. Looking to the next fiscal year, BlackBerry said it expects revenue to be within a range of $504 to $534 million, with a midpoint of $519 million, well below the $550.6 million analysts were expecting.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
It also expects adjusted EPS to be between $0.08 and $0.10 compared to the $0.10 estimate. For the upcoming quarter, it expects sales to be between $107 and $115 million, below the $128.4 million analysts were anticipating. And Citi upgraded Charles Schwab to buy from neutral as the firm pivots back to offense after completing its integration with Ameritrade.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon, today is Wednesday, April 2nd, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. Tesla fell short of expectations for Q1 deliveries as backlash against CEO Elon Musk and a changeover in the Model Y weighed.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
Analyst Christopher Allen said, We see a potential return to a net new asset slash organic growth story, which, if executed while maintaining rate sensitivity slash balance sheet discipline, should translate to multiple appreciation over time. Also, given Schwab's capital generation capacity, we see an improving capital return story as well.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
In other news of note, OpenAI's ChatGPT saw a record surge in usage last year after the rollout of Chatbot's viral Ghibli effect feature. That allows users to generate AI art inspired by Studio Ghibli's iconic hand-drawn animation style. The animation imagery trend resulted in ChatGPT surpassing 150 million weekly active users for the first time this year.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
The EV maker reported 336,681 deliveries for Q1, shy of the 377,000 consensus, and the lowest quarterly tally since 2022. Tesla said it produced 362,615 vehicles during the quarter, and 4% of the deliveries total was subject to operating lease accounting. Model 3 slash Y deliveries for the quarter were 323,800, while other models, the Cybertruck and Models S and X, accounted for 12,881 deliveries.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
We added 1 million users in the last hour, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a post. Upon ChatGPT's launch more than two years ago, 1 million users were reached in five days. After the launch of its GTP 4.0 model that enables advanced image-generating capabilities, last week saw an all-time high in active users, in-app subscription revenue, and app downloads. That's according to data from Sensatower.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
The surge strained OpenAI's servers, leading to temporary outages and slower service. Altman acknowledged capacity challenges, saying delays in new releases and occasional breakdowns should be expected. And in the Wall Street Research corner, B of A picked nine high-conviction buy-rated stocks and one sell-rated stock across several industries for Q2.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
Anthony Casamassino, Senior Project Marketing Manager, says, Uncertainty around potential tariff announcements slated for April 2nd dominates market headlines.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
Our economics team expects a combination of reciprocal and sector-specific tariffs with a base case of a 5 percentage point increase in effective tariffs versus pre-election, while our strategy team estimates a realistic bad case could result in a 10% hit to S&P EPS.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
Among the buys are Bath & Body Works with a price target of $45 as guidance could prove conservative if collaborations drive incremental sales, candles return to growth, or new launches gain incremental traction. And Goldman Sachs with a $700 price target.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
Analysts expect that the potential for a strong trading environment will persist given Trump policy actions and rapid changes to outlook for global monetary policy, regulatory relief on capital, and on day-to-day running of the business, June stress test results watched.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
Steady execution on improving firm-wide profitability and growing the contribution from the asset and wealth management business all as potential catalysts to drive investor interests. The loan sells HIMS and HERS with a price target of $22.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
HIMS' recent revenue acceleration is driven by a loophole in federal drug regulations, FD&C Act and FDA guidance, that allows compound pharmacies to sell drugs while the branded versions are on shortage. However, this drug, semaglutide, is no longer in shortage, meaning HIMS will need to exit the business by May 22nd, they said. See all the pics in our story on Seeking Alpha.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com and join the elite community of real investors to unearth great investing ideas. Just head to seekingalpha.com slash subscriptions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says, We knew first quarter Tesla deliveries would be soft, but these numbers were bad. We are not going to look at these numbers with rose-colored glasses. They were a disaster on every metric. Refresh issues, but brand crisis key. The time has come for Musk. Fork in the road moment for Tesla.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tesla reports worst deliveries since '22
Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles and 495,570 vehicles in the two preceding quarters, and 386,810 vehicles in Q1 a year ago. Looking ahead, analysts have not yet slashed their delivery forecast for the remaining three quarters. The consensus estimates are for Q2 deliveries of 456,000, Q3 deliveries of 497,000, and Q4 deliveries of 544,000.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
That might be a sign that the tariff-length surge in demand for durable goods since late last year is starting to put some upward pressure on prices, although neither index has yet strayed far from its typical pre-COVID range, and most other leading indicators of core goods prices remain relatively benign, he said.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
Among active stocks, Supermicrocomputer is rallying again exactly one week before its February 25th deadline to file its 2024 annual report, along with its quarterly reports for the September 2024 and December 2024 periods. The stock is up about 100% from its recent February low before it released preliminary earnings, and it's up 200% since the 52-week low hit in December.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
Medtronic is the biggest S&P decliner after it only reaffirmed its full-year outlook despite a major opportunity to consolidate its lead in the market for pulsed field ablation systems following a setback to rival J&J. J&J announced a temporary pause in its limited commercial rollout of the Veripulse pulsed field ablation platform, which was approved by the FDA just a few weeks ago.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
While the company decided to resume the rollout on Friday after an investigation found no safety concerns, The damage was already done in its ability to gain an early lead in the PFA market. But Medtronic said it continues to expect its full-year 2025 organic revenue growth to reach 4.75% to 5% and its diluted non-gap EPS to stand at 544% to 550%.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
And Constellation Brands is rallying after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway took a new position in the stock in Q4, valued at $1.24 billion. In other news of note, the sell side is weighing in as reports swirl that Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom could each look to acquire parts of Intel, sending shares of Intel sharply higher.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Tuesday, February 18th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. The GameStop plot thickens. GameStop announced that it intends to pursue a sale of its operations in France and Canada.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
B of A analyst Vivek Arya said a scenario where Broadcom acquires Intel's chip design and marketing business and Taiwan Semi takes over the manufacturing business would be, quote, time-consuming and complicated. There would be extensive approval requirements from global regulators given Intel's dominant market share in the PC and server CPU spaces.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
The retailer said the decision was part of its evaluation of its international assets. The development is interesting after GameStop rallied last week amid buzz over a possible entry back into the crypto sector. CNBC reported that the retailer is eyeing investments in alternative asset classes, including crypto and especially Bitcoin.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
Other issues include Broadcom's $58 billion in net debt on its balance sheet and constraints provided by the CHIPS Act on Intel, which is required to own 50% or more of its manufacturing capabilities.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
JPMorgan credit analyst Christian Crosby said, The ideal outcome is for Intel to separate its founder unit into a new company, which would include Taiwan Semiconductor taking a minority voting stake and operating responsibilities of the combined unit. And in the Wall Street Research Corner, B of A's February Global Fund Manager Survey shows that 89% of respondents see U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
stocks as overvalued, the most since at least April 2001. In addition, the U.S. exceptionalism trade looks to have peaked, becoming slightly less crowded in February. The trade has been characterized by a combo of strong U.S. dollar and equity bull market led by the Magnificent Seven group of stocks, strategist Michael Hartnett said. This month, long U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
exceptionalism was viewed as the most crowded trade by 73% of fund manager survey investors, a decline from the three-year high of 80% reached in January. But while they may be wary of U.S. stocks, money managers are putting cash to work in Europe and bond-sensitive assets, with cash levels of 3.5% at a 15-year low. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com. And make sure you're getting the most out of your portfolio with quant, news, and analysis by heading to SeekingAlpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
Sources indicated that GameStop is still figuring out if the investment is sensible for its business. The report caught the attention of investors because GME had $4.6 billion in cash holdings at the end of Q3 compared to its current market cap of $12.1 billion. The company has a mixed history with cryptocurrency and blockchain initiatives in general.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
It launched a self-custodial cryptocurrency wallet in 2022 that allowed customers to manage digital assets, including cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens. The move was part of GameStop's broader strategy to expand into the digital asset space.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
On the economic front, the Empire State Manufacturing Index bounced up to positive 5.7 in February, moving to expansion territory from negative 12.6 in January. Economists were looking for a smaller rise to negative 0.5. New orders and shipments increased moderately, delivery times grew slightly longer, and supply availability was slightly lower.
Wall Street Breakfast
GameStop plot thickens
Pantheon macroeconomist Oliver Allen expressed some concern with the Prices Paid Index jumping to a two-year high, with prices received also rising.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
Michael Rosner, managing director at Raymond James, says while Wednesday's CPI is an important input into the Federal Reserve's thinking on rates, we may be six to eight months away from the next rate cut, so it's premature to put too much weighting on what this data point means for the Fed.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
Barring any major changes on near-term economic data, we don't think the Fed is going to pivot from its wait-and-see approach on rates.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
Among active stocks, Coca-Cola is up after topping Q4 estimates and delivering organic sales growth across all regions. The beverage giant's top-line guidance was also above the company's long-term target and well above the peer average. Bank of America analyst Brian Spillane said the stronger-than-anticipated full-year 2025 guidance makes sense given the strong Q4 organic sales exit rate.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Tuesday, February 11th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. Apple is working with Alibaba to bring artificial intelligence features to iPhones in China.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
The information reports that the two companies have submitted the AI features to China's cyberspace regulator for approval. Timing of the Apple intelligence launch in China was not immediately clear. However, the company said on its recent earnings call that its next round of language rollouts will be in April.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
In our view, this magnitude of a premium in terms of relative multiple is warranted as KO's top-line management continues to fuel outperformance, he said. Shopify reported Q4 revenue that shot up 31.3% year-over-year to $2.81 billion. It was the company's seventh consecutive quarter of 25% or greater revenue growth when excluding logistics.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
Looking ahead, Shopify sees Q1 revenue growing at the mid-20s percentage rate on a year-over-year basis. And Humana was among the biggest S&P decliners after it warned that its annual Medicare Advantage membership could decline about 10% in 2025 following a decision to exit several loss-making markets and counties.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
The company reiterated its full-year outlook for 2025, implying roughly $16.25 of adjusted earnings per share, which stood almost unchanged from 2024, but fell short of the $16.91 per share in the consensus. In other news of note, Archer Aviation announced that it has raised $300 million. BlackRock was one of the leading institutional investors that participated in the financing round.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
The new investment has seen us further reinforcing the company's strong financial position and strategically positioning it to accelerate the development of its electrical, vertical takeoff and landing hybrid aircraft platform for the defense market and beyond. The new investment raise brings Archer's total liquidity position to about $1 billion.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
Archer also released certain preliminary estimated financial results for Q4, reporting that its GAAP operating expenses will be within the range of $120 to $140 million, and total non-GAAP operating expenses are in line with its guidance range of $95 million to $110 million.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
And in the Wall Street Research Corner, B of A's predictive analysis team says corporate sentiment is at the highest level since it began recording that in 2004. The team analyzes earnings call transcripts to calculate sentiment for the S&P 500 companies.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
They use the Loughran McDonald's Financial Dictionary to calculate sentiment scores, which takes into account the number of unique positive words minus the number of unique negative words in earnings calls.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
Oshan Huang, security equity and quant strategist, notes the indicator has led the S&P 500 EPS year over year, with a 69% correlation with a quarter lead, suggesting a continued upcycle in earnings. Optimism jumped to its highest level since Q1 2021, with 52% of the companies so far expressing optimism during their earnings calls compared to 46% last quarter.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
Mentions of better or stronger versus worse or weaker also jumped to the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2021, showing signs of improvement, Kwan said. Mentions of the word bottom have jumped 24% year over year. This is the biggest bottom bump in history.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
In addition, the European Commission launched an initiative called Invest AI to mobilize 200 billion euros for investment in artificial intelligence, including a new European fund of 20 billion euros for AI gigafactories. The regulator said the large AI infrastructure is needed to allow open, collaborative development of the most complex AI models.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
B of A says rising bottom mentions have historically marked an inflection in the EPS cycle, suggesting a potential earnings recovery in cyclically depressed sectors ahead. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
And for a full suite of news, analysis, ratings, and data on stocks and ETFs, go to SeekingAlpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen said the unique public-private partnership akin to CERN for AI will enable all our scientists and companies, not just the biggest, to develop the most advanced, very large models needed to make Europe an AI continent.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
Heading to Capitol Hill, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell addressed the Senate Banking Committee in the first part of his semiannual testimony before Congress, still known to some of us Gen Xers and boomers as Humphrey Hawkins. Powell said the Fed does not need to be in a hurry to adjust its rates further now that its policy stance is significantly less restrictive than it was a few months ago.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple and Alibaba team up on AI
He said. If the economy stays strong and inflation doesn't continue to move towards the Fed's 2% goal, "...we can maintain policy restraint for longer. But the central bank also needs to be attentive to risks on both sides of its dual mandate. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly," he said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
If we put up a tariff wall, the ultimate goal would be to bring jobs back to the U.S., but in the meantime, we will be collecting substantial tariffs, Besant said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
He likened the tariffs to a melting ice cube, because you're taking in revenues as the manufacturing facilities are built in the U.S., and there should be some level of symmetry between the taxes we begin taking in with the new industry from the payroll taxes as the tariffs decline. but the market gains were cut in half after U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Trade Representative Jameson Greer testified before the Senate Finance Committee and downplayed the possibility of a quick resolution. Greer stressed that Trump had been clear that there won't be any tariff exemptions in the near term. They go into effect on Wednesday.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
He said negotiations would be country by country, adding, "...our large and persistent trade deficit has been over 30 years in the making and it will not be resolved overnight." Over in the bond market, the action continued to flout the flight-to-safety narrative. Yields are up again, and the 10-year yield is above 4.2%, while the 2-year is above 3.8%.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Apollo asset management economist Torsten Schluck says the unusual sell-off in bonds may be linked to the unwinding of the basis trade, a complex strategy used by hedge funds. The basis trade involves betting on the price differences between Treasury securities and their corresponding futures contracts.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Hedge funds often use significant leverage, sometimes up to 100 times, to profit from the convergence of these prices as futures contracts approach expiration. With around $800 billion invested in the basis trade, it constitutes a large portion of the $2 trillion outstanding in prime brokerage balances. Experts worry that the trade poses risks, especially in the event of a market shock.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Tuesday, April 8th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. Tesla CEO and White House advisor Elon Musk unsuccessfully made personal appeals to President Donald Trump to reverse the sweeping new tariffs. That's according to the Washington Post.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Highly leveraged hedge fund positions in Treasury securities could be rapidly unwound, creating instability. Such unwinding would place immense pressure on broker-dealers, potentially disrupting liquidity in Treasury markets and repo funding. Am I active stocks? Several Apple stores have seen instances of panic buying of iPhones amid worries that prices could rise due to tariffs.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Bloomberg said stores across the U.S. were filled with customers at levels akin to the holiday season. One worker said, "...almost every customer asked me if prices were going to go up soon." And El Pollo Loco disclosed that it received an unsolicited, non-binding indication of interest from Biglari Capital Corp. to acquire the rest of the company that it does not already own.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Biglari holds through various entities about 4.5 billion shares of El Pollo Loco, or about 51% of the company. The Restaurant Operators Board of Directors is in the process of carefully evaluating the proposal in consultation with its independent financial and legal advisors to determine the course of action it believes is in the best interests of the company and shareholders.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Musk has voiced his disagreement with new tariffs, using social media platform X to criticize White House trade advisor Peter Navarro, and posting a video featuring economist Milton Friedman, who argued the benefits of international trade cooperation.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
In other news of note, the U.S. Justice Department recently notified employees that the regulator was scrapping a unit focused on crypto enforcement, aligning with the Trump administration's push for deregulation. Fortune said the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Unit was disbanded, quote, effective immediately, unquote, according to a memo from U.S. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanch.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
He added that the DOJ is not a digital assets regulator. And in the Wall Street Research Corner, while the attention has been on big names and major averages, small caps have been hit hard as well by the tariff sell-off with the Russell 2000 benchmark tipping into bear market territory.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Morgan Stanley expects to see further underperformance of small cap stocks relative to large caps, partially because they have higher exposure to macro uncertainty and because analysts have been pulling down earnings estimates. That said, small cap opportunities are rich under the surface, strategist Michael Wilson argues.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Companies with positive ROE and momentum have performed well within the small cap space, both on a historical basis and during 2024 through Q1 2025. Morgan Stanley screened for small-cap stocks with positive 12-month momentum and return on equity with either an overweight or equal weight rating from its analysts.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Among the names are Brinker, Group One Automotive, Cadence Bank, Hims and Hers, and Moog. Check out all the names in our story on Seeking Alpha. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
And make sure you're getting the most out of your portfolio with quant, news, and analysis by heading to seekingalpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Today, Musk labeled Navarro, quote, truly a moron, unquote, and, quote, dumber than a sack of bricks, unquote, for claiming on CNBC that Tesla is not a car manufacturer, but a car assembler with components from other countries. Musk said Tesla has the most American-made cars, citing a study by Cars.com, which also included Canada in that definition.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
Elon Musk's brother, Kimball Musk, a fellow Tesla board member, wrote... Who would have thought that Trump was actually the most high-tax American president in generations? Through his tariff strategy, Trump has implemented a structural, permanent tax on the American consumer. While Trump himself has been steadfast in his recent statement that the goal for the U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
is to eliminate trade deficits with every nation it trades with, Wall Street still looks hostage to how advisers and cabinet members see the White House moving toward the goals. In today's trading, stocks got off to a rip-roaring start after avoiding a Black Monday scenario in the previous session.
Wall Street Breakfast
Musk reportedly asked Trump to reverse tariffs
The S&P 500 climbed as high as 4% after Treasury Secretary Scott Besson said about 70 countries have contacted the White House seeking out to start trade talks. He also said that countries that did not escalate the trade war will get priority in trade talks.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
During the month, demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, a negative for economic growth. Pantheon macroeconomist Samuel Toombs says, This report contains some clear signs that manufacturers are unsettled by the uncertainty around President Trump's tariff policies, a factor mentioned several times in the press release commentary.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
The headline index would have fallen further in March were it not for a 3.5-point jump in the inventories index, which presumably reflects some pre-tariff stockpiling. In the latest JOLTS report, the number of job openings in February slipped to 7.568 million from 7.69 million in January, which was revised from 7.74 million.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
That came in lower than the 7.6 million consensus and signals further cooling in the labor market. The job openings rate fell to 4.5% from 4.7% in the prior month, and the quits rate was 2%, unchanged from January, which was revised down by 0.1 percentage point. The overall hiring rate in February stayed even at 3.4% for the third straight month.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
Wells Fargo economists say hiring managers and workers alike seem to be stuck in wait-and-see mode as they wait to find out which way the economic policy breaks from here. The good news? As depressed as the hiring rate is at present, the overall separations rate has continued to move lower, and the widening gap has helped to support net job growth.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
Further, the labor market has entered 2025 roughly where the Fed wants it, The bad news, new headwinds have emerged that threaten to upend what has been a precarious equilibrium. Among active stocks, Citi says the risk-reward for Apple looks attractive following a recent sell-off in the stock and the expansion of Apple intelligence to several new languages.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Tuesday, April 1st, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. OpenAI's latest funding round has propelled the startup beyond other unicorns to the rank of the highest valued private company in the world, according to some ranking systems.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
Analyst Atif Malik said, We think Apple will likely reset Siri software expectations on the next earnings call before heading into the Worldwide Developers Conference on June 9th. Apple's stock price is getting closer to our bear case scenario following the Siri delay sell-off and the risk-reward looks attractive. Malik maintained his buy rating and $275 price target.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
The $40 billion funding round, which was done in partnership with SoftBank, has given the Microsoft-backed nonprofit a $300 billion valuation. Its valuation has now nearly doubled since October 2024, when a $6.6 billion funding round gave the company a $157 billion post-money valuation.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
Jefferies turned cautious on the airline sector. The firm warned that consumer sentiment continues to disappoint and pointed out that tariffs, which take effect this week, could continue to impact investor confidence. Analyst Sheila Kayogla also expects corporate spending will be lower for the balance of the year.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
She downgraded American Airlines and Delta Airlines to hold ratings after having them set up by. Meanwhile, Air Canada and Southwest Airlines were lowered to underperform from hold. Specifically, she warned that American, Air Canada, and Southwest will cut their 2025 guidance.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
And Goldman Sachs upgraded Ulta Beauty to a buy rating from Neutral, calling it potentially a strong addition to an investor's portfolio. Analyst Kate McShane said, Looking at Ulta vs. Sephora, searches for Ulta continue to track above Sephora, with the gap between the two for March to date the widest it's been so far in 2025.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
From a merchandising perspective, Ulta called out its Ulta Beauty Collection brand, and beyond that, Ulta has some exposure from a store perspective, fixtures, lighting, supplies. In other news of note, China EV delivery numbers came in for Q1. NIO delivered 42,094 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, growth of 40.1% year-over-year.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
March deliveries grew 26.7% year-over-year to 15,039 vehicles, which consisted of 10,219 vehicles from the company's premium smart electric vehicle brand NIO and 4,820 vehicles from its family-oriented smart electric vehicle brand Envo. XPeng delivered 33,205 Smart EVs in March, marking a 268% increase year-over-year, with Q1 deliveries up 331% to 94,008.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
Leo Auto delivered 92,864 vehicles in Q1, marking a growth of 15.5% year-over-year. And BYD sold 986,098 passenger vehicles globally in Q1, up 57.92% from the same quarter in 2024. And in the Wall Street Research Corner, Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson is out with his list of stocks best positioned to navigate the global tariff landscape.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
Near-term upside for the S&P 500 is lightly capped at $5,800 to $5,900, even in a less onerous April 2nd tariff outcome than our policy strategist baseline, Wilson said. Such a scenario would include no additional increases in the tariff rate on China and very narrow tariffs on other Asian economies.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
Reshoring is the strategy that likely insulates companies best from tariff risks, but that carries a quote, very high price tag and time lag, depending on the sector, Wilson added. Among the names with favorable exposure are Ferrari, McDonald's, Mattel, Levi's, Kroger, Rockwell Automation, Ryder, Cleveland Cliffs, and Prologis. See all the stocks in our story on Seeking Alpha.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com. And for a wealth of coverage on stocks and ETFs, go to SeekingAlpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
OpenAI said the latest funding will help it further AI research, scale its compute infrastructure, and deliver tools for the 500 million people who use ChatGPT every week. However, some of the latest funds come with a caveat from SoftBank, which requires OpenAI to transition to an independent, for-profit company by year's end.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
According to a ranking compiled last month of the highest-valued unicorns in 2025 by Ekvista, OpenAI now easily ranks number one, surpassing TikTok parent ByteDance. The list is dominated by companies from the US, China, and India.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
The top 10 are OpenAI at $300 billion, ByteDance at $220 billion, Ant Group at $150 billion, SpaceX at $137 billion, Reliance Retail at $100 billion, Shine at $66 billion, Stripe at $65 billion, Databricks at $62 billion, Reliance Geo at $58 billion, and XAI at $50 billion.
Wall Street Breakfast
OpenAI leads the list of biggest unicorns
On the economic front, the ISM manufacturing index fell into contraction territory at 49 in March from 50.3 in February, trailing the 49.5 consensus. The contraction last month, with the index below 50, followed two straight months of expansion preceded by 26 consecutive months of contraction.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
Pantheon macroeconomist Samuel Toom says, Claims remained low last week, with powerful storms across large areas of the South and Midwest having no immediate impact. The recent deterioration in hiring and firing indicators, however, suggests that claims will climb over the coming weeks.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
Claims filed by former federal workers are not included in the advanced initial claims count unless they also used to hold a second job in the private sector. Unadjusted claims by former federal workers fell to 821 in the week ended March 15th from 1,066 in the previous week, but they remain above their near-zero normal levels, he added.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
Among active stocks, Jefferies downgraded AMD to hold from buy, suggesting that the gap between the company and NVIDIA is widening. Analyst Blaine Curtis said, "...our proprietary benchmarking report suggests real-world throughput of NVIDIA's H200 across a range of open-source models is substantially higher than AMD's MI300X, despite MI300X's higher advertised..."
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
tera floating-point operations per second, and memory bandwidth, referencing NVIDIA's Hopper line of GPUs, which were released in 2023. Meanwhile, NVIDIA is said to be nearing a deal to acquire Lepton AI, an artificial intelligence startup that rents out servers powered by NVIDIA's AI chips. The information says the chipmaker would pay several hundred million dollars.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
Spot prices set a new record high of near $30.60 per ounce as physical stockpiling of the yellow metal as a hedge against tariff uncertainty and the potential inflationary impact continues. New York demand for bullion led to record outflows in London in January. Wall Street banks have been forced to rethink their theses.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
This acquisition aligns with NVIDIA's broader strategy to expand into the cloud and enterprise software market, positioning it in direct competition with major cloud providers like Amazon and Google. And B of A initiated coverage of Roku with a buy rating and a $100 price target.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Thursday, March 27th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far, Wall Street is waving the white flag when it comes to the latest gold rally.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
Analyst Brent Navon said, We believe ROCO provides an attractive combination of top-line growth, margin expansion, and scaling-free cash flow generation, adding that the stock's premium multiple is justified given its long runway for growth and its profitability trajectory.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
In other news of note, the bonus pool for New York City securities employees hit a record $47.5 billion in 2024, up 34% year-on-year, marking its first major increase since COVID-19 pandemic highs, according to the annual estimate from the New York State Comptroller. The increase reflects Wall Street's strong performance of the past year, bolstering New York State's fiscal position.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
But increasing uncertainty in the economy amid significant federal policy changes may dampen the outlook for parts of the securities industry in 2025, it said. The average bonus paid to employees in New York City's securities industry for 2024 jumped 31% to $244,700.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
Also boding well for the city and state, securities employment last year hit its highest annual level in at least 30 years, with 201,500 employees, up from 198,400 in 2023. However, New York is losing share of industry jobs as Wall Street banks shift some functions to other, less expensive regions of the country.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
And in the Wall Street research corner, Americans are expressing worries about feeling the bite from a surge in consumer prices and tariffs, and seeing their stock portfolios hit hard in a major sell-off. 51% of respondents in the Q1 Allianz Life Study expect, quote, another big market crash is on the horizon, rising from 46% in Q4 2024.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
The online survey conducted in February also showed only 26% of respondents were comfortable with current market conditions and were ready to invest, a drop from 31% in the previous quarter. Three-quarters of those surveyed said they are worried that new tariffs will punch up their cost of living expenses.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
Meanwhile, 71% foresee inflation worsening over the next 12 months, a jump from 60% in the Q4 survey. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com. And for a full suite of news, analysis, ratings, and data on stocks and ETFs, go to SeekingAlpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
Goldman Sachs boosted its 2025 gold target to $3,300 from $3,100, and B of A predicts $3,500 per ounce within the next two years with U.S. trade policy supporting prices in the near term.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
B of A said its new target can be reached if the investment demand for gold increases by 10%, which can come from a number of places, including continued buying by central banks and continuing appetite for gold ETFs among retail investors.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
According to Reuters, Goldman said, Looking to charts, SA analyst Dean Popowell says immediate support rests at $29.82 and $29.50 if the lows at $3,004 are breached. On the upside, immediate resistance is in the 3025 to 3030 range before the 3050 and then the 3075 handles come into focus.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold's relentless march up
Looking to the economy, initial jobless claims slipped to 224,000 from 225,000 in the prior week, revised from 223,000, slightly trailing the 225,000 consensus. Continuing claims drifted lower to 1.856 million from 1.89 million prior, compared with the 1.9 million expected.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Morris said management's enthusiasm at this stage of Blackwell was notable, given that it comes at a time when the market appears to be losing confidence.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said during the keynote address that four major cloud service providers, Amazon Web Services, Azure, Google Cloud Platform, and Oracle Cloud, have already purchased 3.6 million Blackwell GPUs in 2025 compared to 1.3 million Hopper GPUs in 2024.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
Moore said, during the Q&A session, it was clear that the reason the company made the decision to give that data was to refocus the narrative on the strength of the demand profile, as they continue to feel questions related to OpenAI-related spending shifting from one of the four to another of the four, or the pressure of ASICs which come from the four customers.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
Looking to the economy, the Conference Board's U.S. Leading Indicator Index dipped 0.3% to 101.1 in February, slightly steeper than the 0.2% consensus and 0.2% decline prior, revised from down 0.3%. And existing home sales rose 4.2% month-on-month to a 4.26 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in February, compared with the 3.95 million consensus and 4.09 million in the prior.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
The unexpected increase came in the wake of lower mortgage rates and more homes put up for sale during the month. From a year earlier, sales dipped 1.2%, snapping a trend of five consecutive annual gains. Pantheon macroeconomist Samuel Toombs says the recent recovery looks unsustainable.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
The recent fall in mortgage rates has triggered only a modest pickup in mortgage applications, and the latest survey of consumers' confidence showed clear decline in the proportion of people who intend to move home over the next six months due to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook, he said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Thursday, March 20th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. CoreWeave, a hyperscaler startup backed by NVIDIA, is targeting a valuation of around $26 billion with its IPO.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
Transactions will recover meaningfully only when new mortgage rates get much closer to the average rate of the stock, currently just above 4%. The Fed's wait-and-see approach to resuming its easing cycle suggests housing market activity will remain very subdued throughout 2025.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
Among active stocks, Accenture is among the biggest S&P decliners, despite fiscal second quarter results that beat estimates. New bookings for the second quarter declined year over year, and the company narrowed its revenue growth outlook for fiscal 2025. CEO Julie Sweet said the company's revenue was being affected due to the impact being felt in Accenture Federal Services. She said,
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
The company will sell 49 million shares, with 47,178,660 shares of Class A common stock being offered by CoreWeave and the balance by existing stockholders. The initial price range is between $47 and $55 per share. The deal would raise $2.7 billion at the top end. Corweave has applied to list its Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol CRWV.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
Jabil's second quarter results easily topped consensus estimates, and the company also increased its 2025 outlook. Jabil's third quarter revenue forecast ranges from $6.7 billion to $7.3 billion, with a midpoint of $7 billion, which is well above the $6.77 billion estimate. EPS is expected to range from $2.08 to $2.48, with a midpoint of $2.28, more than the $2.22 consensus.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
And Microsoft snagged its sector outperform rating with a $4.70 price target as Scotiabank initiated coverage. Analyst Patrick Colville said, Based on our fieldwork, 2025 will be a paradigm-shifting year during which customer investments accelerate in AI on Azure and Microsoft's 365 co-pilot.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
And in the Wall Street Research corner, looking at the tech having NASDAQ 100, Societe Generale notes that the recent sell-off has wiped out nearly all of the AI valuation premium given to stocks in the index. Valuation premiums the mountain investor will pay for a security above the fundamental value.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
The fundamental value in this case being measured as the 12 months forward earnings per share for the NASDAQ 100 as a whole. Strategists said another drop of about 5% in the NASDAQ 100 over the next month would eliminate the AI-driven valuation premium since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
Our core view for 2025 is positive with profits the key driver, where the growth rate is improving for the S&P 500 ex-NASDAQ and slowing rapidly for the NASDAQ 100 since June last year, they added. Hence our call to favor the S&P 500 equal weight while de-risking the Nasdaq 100. Avoiding concentration risk should remain a key focus in 2025. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com slash WSP. And for a wealth of coverage on stocks and ETFs, go to SeekingAlpha.com slash subscriptions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
Including options and shares that will become available after the IPO, the valuation could rise to $32 billion, according to the FT. That's a scaling back of earlier expectations for a valuation of around $35 billion and a deal that would raise about $4 billion. Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs are acting as joint lead book runners.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
The cloud services provider incurred a net loss of $863 million on $1.9 billion in revenue last year. Its platform powers top AI labs and enterprises like Cohere, IBM, Meta, Microsoft, Mistral AI, and Nvidia. Microsoft accounted for 62% of its revenue in 2024, up from 35% the year prior.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave aims to raise $2.7B in IPO
Earlier this month, CoreWeave signed an $11.9 billion five-year contract to deliver AI infrastructure with OpenAI. Also on the NVIDIA front, Morgan Stanley said it was more positive on the company's trajectory after it held an analyst question-and-answer session at its GTC event.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
This calculation assumes that persistent trade deficits are due to a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent trade from balancing. Tariffs work through direct reductions of imports, the agency said. They also provided a formula with a lot of Greek letters, and that's available in our story.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
But what it really boils down to is that the tariff percentages are trade deficit divided by imports. Scott Lincoln Comey, who's the vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, called the reciprocal rate calculations, quote, "...utterly detached from reality. President Trump thinks a trade deficit is a national emergency."
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
To wit, the formula behind the so-called reciprocal tariffs is simply a function of bilateral trade deficits. Contra Trump, the trade deficit is not inherently bad, and imposing tariffs won't reduce it anyway, Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, said. On the economic front, the odds of the U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
recession this year have surged to 54 percent, according to New York-based financial exchange and prediction market CalSheet. That's the highest level since September last year. Cauchy also noted U.S. recession odds in Q1 2025 had been as low as 17%. According to Fitch Ratings, Trump's tariffs result in an overall U.S. effective tariff rate last seen a century ago in 1909.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
They also significantly raise U.S. recession risks. J.P. Morgan's Michael Ferroli said, "...the President's highly anticipated tariff announcement delivered at the very hawkish end-of-the-range expected outcome..." By our calculations, this takes the average effective tariff rate from what had been prior to yesterday's announcement of around 10% to just over 25%.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Tuesday, April 3rd, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story today is our only story, tariffs. That's right, it's the day after tariffs, and markets are tumbling.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
Ferroli also said that reciprocal tariffs could boost personal consumption expenditure prices by 1% to 1.5% this year. And in the Wall Street Research Corner, Sanctuary Wells Bartels said the Trump administration has outlined the worst-case scenario on tariffs thrusting the S&P into risk of correcting as much as 20%.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
If the S&P can't hold 5,500, investors may see the index drop by another 5% to 10% to a bottom of 5,200 to 5,400. We're expecting rocky markets for the next few months and through the end of the first half of the year. We've already seen a 10% correction, and there is a risk of a 15-20% correction now, she added.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
And B of A says tariffs could hit the S&P 500's operating income by 32% if there is equal retaliatory force. In addition, prolonged negotiations could stall activity, spiraling into recession. Calls to boycott U.S. goods could ramp further, but pricing power and currency moves could mollify tariff impacts, strategist Savita Subramanian said. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com slash WSP. And for a wealth of coverage on stocks and ETFs, go to SeekingAlpha.com slash subscriptions. you
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
The major stock averages are all down more than 4%, flights to bonds push yields down, and the 10-year Treasury yield is bumping up against 4%. Deutsche Bank's Jim Reed said, In short, the tariffs put in place last night were extraordinary both in terms of scale and in how they were calculated, with President Trump announcing reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
as he declared a national emergency over the trade deficit. Markets caught off guard by the severity of Trump's tariffs reacted dramatically, Jacob Falcon Crone said. He's the global head of investment strategy at Saxo Bank.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
This was the worst-case scenario for tariffs, and we're not priced into markets, which is why we're seeing such a risk-off reaction, Sanctuary Wealth's chief investment strategist Marianne Bartles said about stocks. Oil prices tumbled more than 5% on concerns about a global trade war recession. The tariffs were bigger than expected, UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Stovano said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff Day After
The question is how other nations will respond, including whether it will see stimulus measures. So, how are these new tariffs calculated? According to the U.S. Trade Representative, reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
McElligot says April 2nd is now being viewed by a lot of folks I'm speaking with as the end of the beginning. as this only kicks off a daisy chain of retaliatory tariff escalations or, in the opposite direction, potential concessions. Plus, of course, this then too starts the clock on the inevitable growth drag off the back of global trade and consumer sticker shock implications.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
Want a cheat sheet? ING has you covered, and this will sub for the Wall Street Research Corner today. The key seven questions and answers condensed are... What tariffs will get imposed on the 2nd of April? Reciprocal tariffs are hideously complicated to do in practice. Remember, every country charges thousands of different tariffs.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
It gets even more complicated still when you throw regulatory barriers and most controversially of all, VAT. Question number two, will these tariffs be long-lasting? These reciprocal tariffs could be much longer-lasting than the on-and-off Canada and Mexico measures we've seen so far.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
but for all the tough talk, stock market weakness still looks like one of the more obvious trigger points for tariff de-escalation. Then, what's priced into financial markets? Higher inflation and weaker growth are opposing forces on yields, but our base case is that the U.S. long-end yields should go higher as the year wears on. Then can Europe deal with President Trump?
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
Diplomatic relations are considerably worse than they were in his first term. LNG and defense procurement can help, but the focus on VAT is a real nightmare for Europe. Will tariffs pay for U.S. tax cuts?
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
Creating genuinely new tax breaks, even if, still a big if, Doge succeeds in cutting spending significantly, would be hard to reconcile with ambitions to lower America's 6% fiscal deficit down to 3%. Then question six, how much will US inflation rise? Passed on in full, a blanket 25% average tariff would lift the price level by more than four percentage points. Fed officials are clearly wary.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
Friday's sticky core inflation data only adds to the stagflationary narrative. And finally, question seven, how damaging is all this for the US economy? Weak payrolls would feed the narrative in markets that Trump's policy negatives are increasingly outweighing the potential positives from tax cuts or deregulation.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
When the jobs data comes in on Friday, the consensus is for payrolls to have risen by 145,000 in March, with the unemployment rate sticking steady at 4.1%. On the earnings calendar, Lower Holdings Progress Software and Tech Target report Monday, Universe Penguin Solutions and RH weigh in on Wednesday, On Thursday, Conagra Brands, Acuity Brands, and Lamb Weston issue numbers.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
Tariff Tuesday would have had a better ring to it, but the fact that Tuesday is also April Fool's Day probably had something to do with White House planning. For his part, President Trump is calling Wednesday Liberation Day. But liberation rhymes with stagflation, the other word on the lips of traders.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
In the news this weekend, Elon Musk disclosed late on Friday that his generative artificial intelligence startup XAI has acquired his social network X in an all-stock deal. The combined deal values XAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion, or $45 billion in equity minus $12 billion in debt.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
Musk, who also owns X, acquired the social network when it was known as Twitter in October 2022 for $44 billion. The company was reportedly in talks last month to raise money at the same $44 billion valuation. And a federal judge on Friday blocked the Trump administration
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
from effectively shutting down the consumer finance protection bureau u.s district judge amy berman jackson issued a preliminary injunction to preserve the existence of the regulator while she decides on the merits of the lawsuits intended to preserve the bureau without an order from the court jackson ruled the administration would quickly try to shut down the cfbp which was created by congress in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
And for income investors, Deere and Nucor go ex-dividend on Monday. Deere pays out on May 8th. Nucor pays out on May 12th. Cisco goes ex-dividend on Thursday with a payout date of April 3rd. And American Express goes ex-dividend on Friday, paying out on May 9th. That's all for today's Wall Street Brunch. Look for links to stories in the show notes section.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash WSB. And join the elite community of real investors to unearth great investing ideas. Just head to seekingalpha.com slash subscriptions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
Nomura strategist Charlie McGillicott says, "...in light of recent shorter-term inflation data, we too are seeing a local stagflation theme, as the diciness of Trump's Phase 1 growth-negative policy mix risks pulling sentiment-slash-consumer into an even more precarious place."
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
Pepperstone's Khazar Elizondia says, the combination of inflationary pressures, economic slowdown, and rising trade tensions creates a challenging environment for equities. Overall, current conditions point toward a concerning scenario with signs of stagflation, that slow economic growth coupled with persistent inflation, and a rapidly deteriorating economic sentiment.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch, our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis. Hello, today is Sunday, March 30th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. It's not often that something can dwarf the jobs report on Wall Street, but the administration's global tariff announcements on Wednesday will almost certainly drive direction.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
So, what can investors expect on Wednesday? The experts agree. Who knows? Wells Fargo economists say, even as next week may bring some more answers around coming tariffs, trade-related uncertainty will likely persist as these policies take time to be enacted, are negotiated, and potentially even scale back.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tariff D-Day arrives as stagflation fears rise
It will also take time to see how tariffs dent growth and drive inflation, as uncertainty is causing most businesses to sit and await clarification. This was evident in fresh durable goods data this week, which showed a stable but hesitant trend in demand amid low intentions for new capital investment among businesses, they added.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Core capital goods orders have shown some signs of life more recently, suggesting a more sustained albeit slower rebound in activity. It's hard to see conditions overly supportive of a broad and sustained recovery in capex spending, though, amid elevated uncertainty and still high rates, they added.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
It's been a while, but focus this week will also be on the new issues market, with what could be a litmus test for tech IPOs and the AI trade. As listeners heard on Wall Street Lunch last week, CoreWeave, a hyperscaler startup backed by Nvidia, looks to raise as much as $2.7 billion with its deal. The IPO will price Wednesday night and trade Thursday under the symbol CRWV.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
The price range is a wide $47 to $55 per share, but that could narrow as the pricing nears. The deal has been scaled back from initial estimates, and a lower pricing could further underscore skittishness in investors putting cash back into AI names. One hedge fund manager told the FT that no one knows where Coral Reeve is going to be in three years' time.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Uncertainty is also the devil of all good investments. It may be fine, but it may not be. but another manager called it the WeWork of AI data centers due to its long leases but short-term customer commitments. Earnings season continues to wind down, but retail names are still in the picture. Dollar Tree reports on Wednesday and Lululemon on Thursday. Mean Favorite GameStop reports Tuesday.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Shares are down 25% year-to-date, reflecting overall market selling pressure and concern regarding potential Bitcoin integration into its business model. Wall Street analysts continue to maintain a strong sell rating on the stock, while Seeking Alpha's quant ratings recently downgraded the stock to hold from buy.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Seeking Alpha author The Gaming Dividend says GameStop's stock price remains disconnected from fundamentals, with weak Q4 earnings expected due to declining hardware and software sales. While speculation about GameStop adopting Bitcoin could provide a short-term boost, the timing may be unfavorable given the current crypto cycle.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Additionally, shifts in the gaming industry and growing competition from digital platforms, such as Microsoft's Game Pass, continue to challenge GameStop's long-term business model, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Also on the earnings calendar, KB Home and Oklo report Monday. Joining GameStop on Tuesday are McCormick, Smithfield Foods, and Pony AI.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Last week, Fed Chairman Jay Powell said, tempting fate, some would say. that inflation from tariffs would likely be transitory. On Friday, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, arrives along with the Personal Spending and Income Report.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Cintas, Paychex, Chewy, and Jeffries Financial weigh in on Wednesday with Dollar Tree. Winnebago reports along with Lululemon on Friday. In the news this weekend, AI search startup Perplexity AI said it wants to acquire TikTok from ByteDance and open source its algorithm, as the short video app nears its April 5th ban deadline.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Perplexity is singularly positioned to rebuild the TikTok algorithm without creating a monopoly, combining world-class technical capabilities with little tech independence, the company said in a blog post. The NVIDIA-backed startup wants to rebuild TikTok's algorithm from scratch in America data centers with American oversight.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
It also plans to make TikTok's recommendation system transparent and open source. Perplexity first made its bid for TikTok in January, but it faces much bigger rivals like Oracle, Microsoft, and a consortium of investors led by former Dodgers owner Frank McCourt. For income investors, Best Buy goes ex-dividend on Tuesday, paying out on April 15th.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Humana, Keurig Dr. Pepper, and Ralph Lauren all go ex-dividend on Friday. Humana has a payout date of April 25th, while Keurig Dr. Pepper and Ralph Lauren pay out on April 11th. And in the Wall Street Research Corner, B of A says investors should look for stocks with proven track records of navigating past downturns and also have low crowding risk and minimal earnings volatility.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Analysts screen for stocks that have outperformed in the last 80% of market pullbacks of 10% or more since the early 1980s. These stocks are also considered high quality, with an S&P quality rating of B-plus or higher, and are underweighted by active fund managers. Among the names are Verizon, AutoZone, Pepsi, Costco, ConAgra, J&J, General Mills, and Hormel Foods.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
See all 36 stocks in our story on Seeking Alpha. That's all for today's Wall Street Brunch. Look for links to stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash WSB. And join the elite community of real investors to unearth great investing ideas. Just head to seekingalpha.com slash subscriptions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Wells Fargo economists say, inflation remains a big hurdle for consumers, and we forecast some sticky price pressures in the February data, which should keep the headline deflator at 2.5% and nudge the core deflator, or PCE, up a tenth to 2.7%. But even if the inflation measure comes in hot, traders could give it a pass, assuming that the Fed is already pricing in a tariff boost to prices.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
The March summary of economic projections showed forecasts for core PCE at 2.8% for this year, up from 2.5% forecast in December. Markets are still pricing in a quarter-point rate cut in June and are split between two and three cuts for the year. So, if inflation is losing the wow factor, the attention will likely turn to growth.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch, our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis. Hello, today is Sunday, March 23rd, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Investors will be looking through a new lens at the latest income and spending figures out at the end of the week.
Wall Street Breakfast
Tests for transitory inflation and AI IPOs
February durable goods orders arrived Wednesday, with a 1% decline expected in headline and a 0.2% rise in core orders ex-transportation. Orders shot up in January, and for a manufacturing sector beset by more bad news than good in the past few years, purchasing managers wonder if this is promises of what seemed to be or a genuine uptick in activity, Wells Fargo's team said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
Home Depot, Intuit, Workday, and Keurig Dr. Pepper weigh in on Tuesday. Joining NVIDIA on Wednesday are Salesforce, Lowe's, TJX, and Stellantis. Thursday brings HP, Rocket, Warner Bros. Discovery, and NetApp. EOG Resources chart industries and AES issue numbers on Friday.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
On the economic front, the highlight of the week will be the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, which is expected to show a more benign picture of price pressure than the January CPI. The January core PCE price index hits Friday, and economists expect a 0.3% rise on the month, cutting the annual rate to 2.6%.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
Wells Fargo economists say inflation progress is slower going, but it hasn't necessarily gone into reverse. David Rogel, lead portfolio manager of the BlackRock Total Return Fund, says, We think the recent FOMC rate cuts were part of a recalibration cycle to adjust policy rates down with inflation so as not to cause a passive tightening in monetary policy.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
While the Fed's easing bias remains, we think the central bank has transitioned to more of an extended hold at a minimum through June and potentially longer, absent any unforeseen shocks. In the news this weekend, Berkshire Hathaway reported a surge in Q4 operating earnings, delivering a full-year 27% jump to $47.44 billion.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
The company said Q4 operating earnings increased 71.3% year-on-year to $14.53 billion. Berkshire's cash pile swelled to a record $334.2 billion as of the end of last year, up from $325.21 billion as of September 30, 2024. The cash has long been a focus for investors impatient for it to be put to work.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
In his annual letter, Warren Buffett assured investors that Berkshire Hathaway's equity holdings would always exceed its cash. Berkshire will never prefer ownership of cash-equivalent assets over the ownership of good businesses, whether controlled or only partially owned.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
He also explained the company's policy of not paying dividends to shareholders, preferring to reinvest the money into the company. Berkshire only paid a dividend once in 60 years of Buffett's control. On January 3, 1967, the company paid out $0.10 per A share.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
For 60 years, Berkshire shareholders endorsed continuous reinvestment, and that enabled the company to build its taxable income, Buffett said. And speaking of dividends, Phillips 66 goes ex-dividend on Monday, paying out on March 5th. S&P Global goes ex-dividend Wednesday and pays out on March 12th. Delta Airlines goes ex-dividend on Thursday, paying out on February 27th.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
Will NVIDIA give the bulls a much-needed jolt of belief as macro worries gain a stronger grip on action? We'll find out when the chipmaker reports earnings on Wednesday. Analysts expect NVIDIA to report EPS of $0.85 on revenue of $38.15 billion. There have been six upward analyst revisions to the bottom line going into the report, with two down.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
And Goldman Sachs goes ex-dividend on Friday, with a March 28th payout date. And in the Wall Street Research Corner, and speaking of Goldman, they are out with their rising stars list. Those are the stocks with the largest increase in the number of hedge fund owners from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2024.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
Senior strategist Ben Snyder says stocks with the largest increase in number of hedge fund investors have historically outperformed their sector peers during the quarters that followed their rise in popularity. At the top of the rising stars list are Disney and Salesforce, both with 24 more hedge funds buying. Robinhood follows at 23 and Boeing at 20.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
Arthur J. Gallagher, Coupang, and App Loving are tied at 19. Looking at falling stars, Micron saw 24 fewer hedge funds owning its stock. SS&C Tech followed, down 23. Premier and Elf Beauty followed at 19. See all 40 rising and falling stars in our story on Seeking Alpha. Wishing all our listeners a successful trading week and a special shout out to new podcast fans, Phoebe, Chris, and Jen.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
That's all for today's Wall Street Brunch. Look for links to stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash WSB. And join the elite community of real investors to unearth great investing ideas. Just head to seekingalpha.com slash subscriptions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
The top line has seen seven upward revisions and two to the downside. Viktor Derganov, who runs the financial profit investing group on Seeking Alpha, says the top line number will be especially important here as the market will look for signs of continued growth, specifically in the lucrative enterprise AI GPU segment.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch, our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis. Hello, today is Sunday, February 23rd, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. This is a test. For the next few sessions, the stock market will be conducting a test of the AI rally. This is only a test.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
While NVIDIA guided to only $37.5 billion in sales for Q4, NVIDIA often sandbags its forecasts, making it easier to provide better-than-anticipated results. So $38-39 billion in sales with a small beat on profit wouldn't be a surprise, he said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
Guidance will be crucial in the wake of DeepSeek, but despite high expectations, NVIDIA can deliver another constructive earnings report, which should support its stock price trajectory and the trajectory of other high-quality AI picks, he concluded. Key bank capital markets are expecting a strong report that will solidly beat forecasts and provide higher, albeit conservative, guidance.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia earnings will test AI rally
DeepSeek's recent announcement concerning its latest AI product has led to a spike in demand for NVIDIA's H20 GPUs in China, analysts added. Shares of Nvidia are barely higher year-to-date, but are up 15% from their low at the beginning of the month. Also on the earnings calendar, Public Storage, Trip.com, Zoom Communications, and SBA Communications report on Monday.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
The markets are pricing in a dead certainty that the FOMC will keep rates on hold, and Powell said recently that there was no hurry to consider rate moves. But there will be the press conference, where the Fed chairman will be peppered with questions about the impact of tariffs on growth and inflation, and a new summary of economic projections, known as the dot plot.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
Powell will do his best to avoid criticizing tariffs and the current uncertainty they are bringing. That would be a departure from his data-dependent mantra, and there's no upside in a war of words with President Trump. But he may find it harder to sidestep questions about where policies are impacting the numbers.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
During the COVID inflation surge, he put particular importance on inflation expectations in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report. The latest figures showed year-ahead expectations jumping to 4.9% from 4.3% and five-year expectations rising to 3.9% from 3.5%.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
Unemployment fears rose to great recession levels, while the overall sentiment index tumbled in what Pantheon macroeconomist Samuel Toombs called a horrific report. In the dot plot, we may see rare focus on GDP forecasts, along with rates and inflation, as the stock market frets about growth. Wells Fargo economists say they expect to see a modest downgrade to economic projections for 2025.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
The median December projection looked for 2.1% real GDP growth in 2025, but the initial tracking data suggests Q1 economic growth will be weak while tariffs threaten the outlook for later in the year. We do not expect a major decline in the projections, but a dip below 2% seems to be in store. We also expect the FOMC to revise upwardly its inflation projections.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
They added they would not be surprised for Chair Powell to make a dovish comment or two at the press conference that reveal a slight easing bias by acknowledging that the downside risks to the labor market have increased somewhat. Speaking of growth, FedEx reports earnings on Thursday, and the delivery company is considered a bellwether for global economic activity.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
FedEx is expected to post EPS of $4.67 on revenue of $21.91 billion. Truist Securities initiated coverage of the company this past week, saying that FedEx will benefit from its push to integrate its grounds and express operations, driving better efficiency and using higher margins in full year 2026 and beyond.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
Also on the earnings calendar, KE Holdings, Xpeng, Tencent Music, Express, and Health Equity report on Tuesday. General Mills, GDS Holdings, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, and Five Below weigh in on Wednesday. Joining FedEx on Thursday are Accenture, Nike, Micron, and Darden Restaurants.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
In the news this weekend, President Donald Trump signed a spending bill crafted by Republican lawmakers that will fund the government through September. The legislation, which Trump has backed, raises defense spending by $6 billion and cuts $13 billion in non-defense spending. And U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy confirmed that the FAA isn't yet prepared to lift the current restriction limiting Boeing's 737 MAX production to 38 planes a month. Duffy had visited Boeing's Washington factory, where he met with CEO Kelly Ortberg and acting FAA Administrator Chris Rochelot. Ortberg is scheduled to testify before Congress on April 2nd about the company's safety practices.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
Bulls will be looking for NVIDIA's GPU Technology Conference and Fed Chief Jerome Powell & Co. for some help. And with all due respect to the Fed, it looks like beaten down NVIDIA is the one that will have to jump in the Millennium Falcon and ride to the rescue. The question is whether the AI force is still strong with the stock.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
For income investors, AIG and Merck go ex-dividend on Monday, with the sharing of the green on March 31st for AIG and an April 7th payout date for Merck. Walmart and Kohl's go ex-dividend on Friday, Walmart pays out on April 7th, and Kohl's pays out on April 2nd. And in the Wall Street Research Corner, bond king Bill Gross is weighing in on equities.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
He said Trump's moves so far are close to changes made in FDR's first few months because if continued, they significantly affect not just domestic policy and potential outcomes, but global economies as well. These moves affect, for now, market volatility and business and consumer confidence globally.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
Market strategists seem unable to pronounce bear, but fall back on historic examples of 10% corrections returning to prior heights. Slim chance, he added. Interest rates are dependent on recession-slash-low growth outcomes, but tariffs are definitely bearish. Thanks for listening, and have a happy St. Patrick's Day. That's all for today's Wall Street Brunch.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
Look for links to stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash WSB. And join the elite community of real investors to unearth great investing ideas. Just head to seekingalpha.com slash subscriptions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
GTC kicks off on Monday, and CEO Jensen Wang delivers the keynote address on Tuesday. So positive signs about demand and production could bring in buyers who have so far been unwilling to buy back into heavyweight tech favorites, even with valuations tumbling.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
AI is approaching bear territory, with the iShares Future AI and Tech ETF, ticker symbol ARTY, down 18% from the recent market high a month ago. Looking to specifics, B of A analyst Vivek Arya is expecting to hear updates on NVIDIA's pipeline, Blackwell Ultra and Rubin, its position in China, and how it stacks up against the competition.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch, our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis. Hello, today is Sunday, March 16th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Help me, NVIDIA GTC, you're my only hope. Amid a sharp sell-off, Friday's bounce notwithstanding, this week could prove pivotal for the markets.
Wall Street Breakfast
Nvidia GTC may be only hope for animal spirits
The key near-term issue is the Blackwell ramp, which led to some higher costs and delays and resulted in margins declining to 71% from the mid-70s range. Other areas of focus include the rise of application-specific integrated circuits with Broadcom and, to a lesser extent, Marvel. A day after Jensen Long has his say, Jay Powell steps up to the mic on Wednesday.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
Earnings are thinning out this week, but Target's numbers will be closely watched following Walmart's cautious guidance that raised worries about consumer spending. Analysts expect Target to post EPS of $2.25 on sales of $30.85 billion for its fiscal Q4 on Tuesday. In the last 90 days, there have been 24 upward revisions to the bottom line versus just two downward revisions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
On sales, there have also been 24 upward revisions with no downward revisions. For fiscal Q1, the forecast is for EPS of $2.06 on sales of $25.13 billion. SA analyst Future Rich Investing, who has a buy on Target, says it's quite clear that even with low future financial and dividend growth, the share's intrinsic value is higher than their current trading price.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
With the broad market's current overvaluation, in the near future, many investors will prefer to invest in more stable, well-established companies with lower P-E ratios, cheaper, such as Target, they added. Also on the earnings calendar, on Monday, Okta, GitLab, California Researches, and Surgery Partners report earnings.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
Joining Target on Tuesday are CrowdStrike, C-Limited, AutoZone, and Ross Stores. Marvel Technology, Viva Systems, Zscaler, Brown, Foreman, and Campbells weigh in on Wednesday. On Thursday, Broadcom, Costco, Kroger, Burlington Stores, and BJ's Wholesale issue numbers.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
In the news this weekend, DeepSeek claimed a theoretical daily cost-profit ratio of 545% related to its V3 and R1 models, but it warned that actual revenue would be much lower.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
The AI startup's post on GitLab was the first time it disclosed any profit margin information from inference tasks, which is the stage that involves trained AI models making predictions and doing tasks after they have been trained. DeepSeek said in the post that, assuming the hourly rent for an NVIDIA H800 is $2, DeepSeek the total daily inference cost for its V3 and R1 models would be $87,072.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
It said in contrast, theoretical daily revenue generated by the models is $562,027. That would total more than $205 million in revenue in a year. But DeepSeek said actual revenue would be substantially lower because the cost of using its V3 model is less than the R1 model, just some services are monetized, and developers pay less for off-peak usage.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
The figures arrived pre-market Friday as usual, with economists expecting that non-farm payrolls rose by 150,000 and the unemployment rate stayed steady at 4%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to have risen 0.3%.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
And Beijing is telling artificial intelligence researchers and entrepreneurs to avoid visits to the U.S. That's according to the Wall Street Journal. Officials are worried that Chinese AI experts traveling could disclose confidential information on the country's progress with AI.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
Sources said there's no outright travel ban, but there is guidance from Chinese officials discouraging local AI executives and those in other sensitive industries to avoid non-urgent trips to the U.S. and its allies. For income investors, McDonald's, Nike, Lockheed Martin, and Sherwin-Williams all go ex-dividend on Monday.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
McDonald's pays out on the same day they'll be serving Shamrock Shakes, March 17th. Nike pays out on April Fool's Day, Lockheed has a payout date of March 28th, and Sherwin-Williams pays out on March 14th. And in the Wall Street Research Corner, BlackRock strategist Rick Reeder says the traditional hedging role of bonds and portfolios has waned, and investors should be optimizing for income.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
Last year, returns across 70,000 debt securities were negatively correlated with duration and positively correlated with starting yield. The takeaway is straightforward. When hedging value is negative and repayment schedules come with historically high certainty, fixed income investing should prioritize income over interest rate risk, he said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
He highlighted the 4% underperformance in the interest rate-oriented Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index against cash in 2024. Meanwhile, income-oriented fixed income exposure outperformed cash, as did the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, by 20%.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
Consider that a diversified income-oriented portfolio utilizing the full global fixed income universe would have markedly outperformed the ag every year since the pandemic, with nearly half the volatility, he added. The traditional role of bonds as a hedge is no longer reliable. That's all for today's Wall Street Brunch. Look for links to stories in the show notes section.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash WSB. And join the elite community of real investors to unearth great investing ideas. Just head to seekingalpha.com slash subscriptions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
Following a relatively weak January payrolls print and benign core PCE price index countering a hot CPI, the market is once again pricing in a quarter-point Fed rate cut in June and three cuts by the end of the year. But Wells Fargo economists noted this past week officials expressed the desire to hold rates steady on account of stalled inflation and increasing uncertainty.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
All told, the recent FedSpeak supports our view that mounting upside inflation risks will keep the FOMC on hold over the next several meetings. Wall Street will also be looking for any impact on the data from the federal layoffs implemented by Doge. Wells Fargo says federal payrolls will likely see a decline of $5,000 to $10,000 this time around.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch, our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis. Hello, today is Sunday, March 2nd, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. The February jobs report arrives this week in a more dovish environment than the January numbers.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
Decline of federal employment in the realm of 25,000 to 50,000 spread over the next few months seems reasonable, they added, but from what we know now, the reductions in the size of the federal workforce will not alter the overall trajectory of the labor market over this year.
Wall Street Breakfast
Jobs report will be watched for DOGE impact
Even considering the noise in near-term headwinds to job growth, we would stress that federal civilian employment makes up a small portion of total payrolls, 1.5%, in the United States. Furthermore, we were already expecting slower hiring and modest upward movement in the unemployment rate this year as labor demand remains tepid and labor force growth slows.
Wall Street Breakfast
Goldman Sachs gets more bearish on stocks
Sticking with recent issues, shares of CoreWeave are under pressure following its second full day of trading following its IPO last week. The cloud computing company's startup's now-stake debut was far from a dream run, as it closed flat after opening nearly 3% below its offer price on Friday, giving the NVIDIA-backed company a lower-than-expected valuation.
Wall Street Breakfast
Goldman Sachs gets more bearish on stocks
The company raised about $1.5 billion in its IPO. And Wingstop gained another bull as the stock's cheap valuation and growth potential in a tough backdrop earned an upgrade from Jefferies to buy from hold, along with a 21% hike in its target price. Analyst Andy Barish said, In other news of note...
Wall Street Breakfast
Goldman Sachs gets more bearish on stocks
Amid speculation that Apple is planning to purchase $1 billion worth of NVIDIA's GB300 and VL72 offerings, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said it would not boost the iPhone maker's edge in artificial intelligence, quote, anytime soon. Kuo said the size of the order is way too small and compared it to what Meta Platforms has done recently.
Wall Street Breakfast
Goldman Sachs gets more bearish on stocks
Meta is expected to buy 1.3 million GPUs in 2025, which would be roughly 70 times what Apple is rumored to spend. And with Meta's focus on AI servers that develop large language models, cutting operational costs and boosting service efficiency, Apple may be falling short in this space. Second, GB300 NVL72 mass shipments won't start until the first half of 2026, Kuo explained.
Wall Street Breakfast
Goldman Sachs gets more bearish on stocks
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Monday, March 31st, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far, Goldman Sachs has cut its S&P 500 target for the second time this month as its economists raised their projections of a U.S. recession to 35%.
Wall Street Breakfast
Goldman Sachs gets more bearish on stocks
Apple's suppliers here, Dell and Supermicro, aren't top-tier assemblers like Foxconn and Quanta, so Apple might not get its racks until the second or third quarter of 2026, or even later. Clearly, this deal isn't going to give Apple an AI edge anytime soon, definitely not in the next 12 months. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section.
Wall Street Breakfast
Goldman Sachs gets more bearish on stocks
Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com. And make sure you're getting the most out of your portfolio with quant, news, and analysis by heading to SeekingAlpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
Goldman Sachs gets more bearish on stocks
Equity strategist David Koston says higher tariffs, weaker economic growth, and greater inflation than we previously assumed prompted Goldman to cut its year-end view to 5,900 from 6,200 for the benchmark. If the growth outlook and investor confidence deteriorate even further, valuations could decline much more than we forecast, Kostin said. Economists at Goldman Sachs now see the average U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Goldman Sachs gets more bearish on stocks
tariff rate rising to 15% this year from a previous 10% view. Chief economist Jan Hatzius says almost the entire revision reflects a more aggressive assumption for reciprocal tariffs. Goldman bumped up its 12-month recession probability to 35% from 20%, and sliced down its 2025 GDP projection to 1% from 1.5% on a Q4 basis.
Wall Street Breakfast
Goldman Sachs gets more bearish on stocks
The upgrade from our previous 20% recession estimate reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from the White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies, Hatzius said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Goldman Sachs gets more bearish on stocks
Among active stocks, conservative-focused news network Newsmax opened for trading on its first day as a public stock at $14, above its $10 initial public offering price, and rose from there to a 66% gain before a volatility halt just before 11 a.m. ET. That halt was quickly followed by another and another. Shares remained volatile, but have reached a high of more than $75 intraday.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
companies, he added. Firms' costs are now rising at the steepest rate for nearly two years, with factories increasingly passing these higher costs on to customers. Thankfully, from the Federal Reserve's perspective, services inflation remains relatively subdued, but this reflects the need to keep prices low amid weak demand, which will harm profits.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
Hopes that tariffs will be more targeted than scattergun have brought out stock buyers today. All the major averages are higher, and the S&P 500 had one of its best gap-up opens in years. Continuing the risk-on move, treasury prices are lower and yields are back up, with the 10-year back above 4.3%.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
Seeking Alpha Analyst Market Gauge notes that the market has been dragged down by the magnificent 7, but the market in other areas is not as damaged. For example, the equal weight SPY, or SP, is essentially flat on the year, and the cyclical sectors are up 3%. Additionally, the risk-off sectors are up more than 4% on the year.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
RSP, consumer staples, and industrials are outperforming, and if the market starts to muster up some bullish confidence that this is more than just a bounce in oversold areas, it will likely show up in these ETFs, they said. Among active stocks, Boeing caught an upgrade from Malleus Research, which shifted its rating on the stock to buy from hold.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
Malleus analyst Scott Mikus pointed to several reasons for Boeing's improved outlook, the leadership of a chief executive officer with a strong operational focus, faster-than-anticipated deliveries of 737 aircraft post-strike, and the recent contract win for the Sixth Generation Fighter Initiative, known as the Next Generation Air Dominance Program.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
investors are set to see a decline in stock-based wealth of a whopping $3 trillion for Q1 2025, according to estimates from B of A using private client equity data. That's about a third of the $9 trillion that household equity wealth rose in 2024 when it climbed to about $56 trillion, strategist Michael Hartnett said. U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Monday, March 24th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. We're mixing things up and starting with the Wall Street Research Corner today. U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Dutch Brothers with an overweight rating. Analyst Brian Harbour and his team noted that Dutch Brothers is a well-liked brand and a favorite category and is rapidly growing on the national stage. The coffee store chain was said to be hitting its stride on development and comparable sales growth.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
And Bank of America reiterated its buy rating on Dell after Nvidia mentioned its relationship with the PC and server giant in positive fashion at last week's GTC event. Analyst Wamsi Mohan said, Our recent checks with suppliers in Asia suggest a strong 2Q ramp-up for GB200 systems and share gains at Dell.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
In other news of note, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says that it's initiated an investigation into about 1.3 million Ford Motor F-150 pickup trucks. The investigation is tied to reports of an unexpected gear downshift, which was then accompanied by a temporary rear-wheel lockup.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
The NHTSA's announcement marks the beginning of an official inquiry into this issue, which could potentially affect a significant number of the best-selling pickups. Overall, F-150 sales have faced challenges, including a 5% decline in 2024, reflecting broader market shifts by drivers towards SUVs and hybrid vehicles. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com. And for a wealth of coverage on stocks and ETFs, go to SeekingAlpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
fiscal, monetary, and trade policy are currently hawkish, while the yield curve is set to invert, Hartnett noted. Growth numbers will also likely come with some sticker shock, as the latest PMI figures showed that GDP will likely come in at an annual rate below 2% for Q1. At face value, the March S&P Global US Composite PMI topped estimates thanks to a rebound in services activity.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
The Flash Composite rose to 53.5 from 51.6 in February. The services PMI came in at 54.3 versus 51.2 consensus and 51 in the previous month, but the manufacturing PMI clocked in at 49.8 versus 59.1 expected and 52.7 prior.
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
Chris Williamson, chief bureau economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, "...a welcome upturn in service sector activity in March has helped propel stronger economic growth at the end of the first quarter."
Wall Street Breakfast
Households face $3 trillion in lost stock wealth this quarter
However, the survey data are indicative of the economy growing at an annualized 1.9% rate in March and just 1.5% over the quarter as a whole, pointing to a slowing of GDP growth compared to the end of 2024. A key concern over tariffs is the impact on inflation, with the March survey indicating a further sharp rise in costs as suppliers pass tariff-related price hikes on to U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
The major averages are mixed, but fairly close to the flatline. Rates are also volatile. The 10-year Treasury yield is back around 4.4%, but has been in the green and the red today. Clark Bellin, CIO at Bellwether Wealth, says, Even though stocks posted their worst day of the year on Friday, the stock market still has been off to an impressive start so far in 2025.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
And if we see blowout earnings from NVIDIA and softer-than-expected inflation data, that could add upward momentum to stocks. Today, Wedbush analysts said NVIDIA is likely to offer up a clear beat and raise.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
The $325 billion of CapEx from the Magnificent Seven in 2025 is about a $100 billion increase year over year, and enterprise-driven demand is accelerating as more companies and governments, Project Stargate, head down the AI yellow brick road, they added.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
We believe demand is far outstripping supply with Blackwell in the field, and after speaking with many enterprise AI customers, we have seen not one AI enterprise deployment slow down or change due to the deep-seek situation. Among active stocks, Domino's Pizza is under pressure with 4Q results below expectations, declining traffic at its U.S. restaurants weighed on sentiment.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
While retail sales growth improved 4.4%, excluding foreign exchange, the increased traffic was less than Q4 2023 and was largely impacted by an anemic 2.3% improvement in the U.S. That's nearly half the growth rate the year prior. U.S. same-store sales increased by just 0.4% versus 2.8% in Q4 2023 and less than the 1.5% forecast.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Monday, February 24th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. Apple announced that it will invest more than $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, hiring about 20,000 people.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
WeRide announced that it landed approval to launch its latest generation robo-taxi, the GXR, for fully unmanned paid ride-hailing services in Beijing.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
The company noted that GXR marks WeRide's second robo-taxi model to achieve fully driverless commercial operations in Beijing and is GXR's first large-scale commercial deployment in China, following a launch on the Uber platform in Abu Dhabi last December.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
The vast majority will be focused on R&D, silicon engineering, software development, and AI and machine learning. UBS analyst David Vogt who is a neutral rating on Apple, said the iPhone maker's supply chain and financial model raises doubts around the $500 billion announcement and number, which includes building a server factory in Houston.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
And Jeffries analyst Randall Koenig upgraded Nike to buy from Hull, saying the brand remains strong and strategic missteps allowing the company to gain market share were not fatal.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
CEO Elliot Hill is tackling product distribution issues head-on, positioning the brand to again outgrow the market and take back lost share, Koenig said, adding that he expects a V-shaped margin EPS recovery in fiscal 2027, well ahead of the consensus estimates.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
In other news of note, Microsoft said last month it would spend $80 billion on data centers this year, with more than half of that in the U.S. But TD Cohen raised some questions about that in a note that said the company may be canceling some leases. Analyst Michael Elias said, "...our channel checks indicate that Microsoft has canceled leases in the U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
totaling a couple hundred megawatts with at least two private data center operators." He noted that Microsoft has pulled back on the conversion of statement of qualifications to leases and has reallocated a considerable portion of its international spend to the U.S. When coupled with our prior channel checks, it points to a potential oversupply position for Microsoft.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
But Microsoft told Seeking Alpha, Thanks to the significant investments we have made up to this point, we are well positioned to meet our current and increasing customer demand. Last year alone, we added more capacity than any prior year in history. While we may strategically pace or adjust our infrastructure in some areas, we will continue to grow strongly in all regions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
This allows us to invest and allocate resources to growth areas for our future. And in the Wall Street Research Corner, BMO capital market strategist Brian Belsky says the great outperformance of the high-profile stocks is likely to subside in the next few months.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
The run has pushed valuation levels to extremes, making them more susceptible to a downturn in the coming months, particularly considering that the expectation bar is much higher this year compared to the past two, he said. Belsky recommends smaller-cap growth stocks, noting the best opportunities for outperformance are in the bottom 60% by market cap for growth stocks.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
Among his picks are AutoZone, CSX, First Solar, Hess, and Workday. Check out all 21 names in our story on Seeking Alpha. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com. And for a full suite of news, analysis, ratings, and data on stocks and ETFs, go to seekingalpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
While the headline figure on the surface is a large number, we believe it lacks substance at this juncture based on history, he said. Vogt added that more than 40% of Apple's suppliers, who are responsible for roughly 98% of direct spending on materials, manufacturing, and assembling Apple products, are located in Taiwan or China. The U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
supplier base accounts for just 10% of Apple's supply chain. The hiring of an additional 20,000 new employees would grow Apple's employee base by around 12% over the next five years. If the cost is around $250,000 per employee, that would raise Apple's operating expenses by just $5 billion per year.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
Wedbush analyst Dan Ai said the announcement is not a sign that Apple is tweaking its China manufacturing build-out, but is more akin to a strategic move to get into President Trump's invest-in-the-U.S. theme.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple's $500 billion 'politician' move
Cook continues to prove that he is 10% politician and 90% CEO, and times like this he will be using his strong ties globally to make sure it's smoother waters for Cupertino ahead despite the market's agita around Apple's growth initiatives with Trump heading down the tariff threat path. In today's trading, stocks are choppy following Friday's sell-off, and growth names have lost early gains.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
Existing earnings estimates are likely low as well, since management has also consistently guided conservatively. Also on the earnings calendar, UFP Industries, Noble, and Transocean report on Monday. On Tuesday, Arista Networks, Medtronic, Cadence Design Systems, Occidental Petroleum, and Vulcan Materials issue numbers. HSBC Holdings, Analog Devices, Carvana, and Garmin weigh in on Wednesday.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
Joining Walmart on Thursday are Alibaba, Booking Holdings, MercadoLibre, and Southern. On the economic front, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting arrive on Wednesday afternoon. According to veteran Fed watcher Mott Capital, who runs the Reading the Markets investing group, most of the recent data point to a strong labor market and inflation rates that appear to be accelerating.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
The market is taking notice as one-year and two-year inflation swaps trade at their highest levels since March 2023. The Fed minutes are likely to read moderately hawkish and carry the tone of the January press conference, Mott Capital said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
The overall tone should indicate that the Fed wants to see more progress on inflation, but at the same time send a message that the Fed believes the policy is restrictive. However, the data do not support that, nor do financial conditions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
If that is the message of the minutes, it should lead to the bond market bear steepening resuming as rates on the long end of the yield curve continue to push higher. Morgan Stanley economists say that Chairman Jay Powell's testimony in mid-February gave a more timely update on Fed thinking than the minutes will.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
Even so, we'll look for assessments of recent disinflation, of potential effects from tariffs and policy uncertainty, and the restrictiveness of current policy. Fed officials' view on these differ, and the minutes may offer information about the distribution of their thinking, they said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
In the news this long weekend, OPEC Plus is weighing yet another delay to its plan to unwind voluntary production cuts and resume monthly supply hikes from April, according to Bloomberg. If it decides to push back the move, it'd be the fourth time that the Saudi Arabia-led oil-producing alliance has delayed plans to restart production hikes since 2022.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
While a decision will likely be finalized in the coming weeks, the group is split on how to proceed. A delegate cited in the report said global oil markets continue to be too fragile to restart production.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
Tencent shares rose to their highest level since 2021 on Monday after the company said its WeChat messaging app has launched beta testing with DeepSeek, joining a growing list of big tech majors integrating DeepSeek's AI software across China.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
And Captain America Brave New World became the first big box office opening of the year, bringing in $88.5 million, according to studio estimates released Sunday. Sony's Paddington in Peru came in second with $13 million. The film opened in the UK in early November. Horror movie Heart Eyes came in third with $10 million during its second weekend.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
Two big household names will draw special attention, Apple and Walmart. On Wednesday at noon ET, Apple will host a launch event. The announcement is expected to be conducted through a press release and promotional materials, rather than a live-streamed keynote.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
Dogman came in fourth, and Chinese film Nezha 2 came in fifth. For income investors, Ford and Johnson & Johnson go ex-dividend on Tuesday, Ford pays out on March 3rd, and J&J pays out on March 4th. Microsoft goes ex-dividend on Thursday, paying out on March 30th, and Yum! Brands goes ex-dividend on Friday, with a payout date of March 7th.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
And in the Wall Street Research Corner, Citi research analysts highlighted their thematic 30 list of recommendations. These are 30 stocks within three investing styles, including growth, cyclical, and defensive, and organized by several subsectors. The picks have outperformed the benchmark Russell 1000 since Q4 last year.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
Among the sectors are artificial intelligence, fintech, agricultural demand, global tourism, pollution solutions, and others. Their AI picks are Amazon, DoorDash, DocuSign, Equinix, GoDaddy, Marvel Technology, and Uber. Check out all the names for each sector in our story. Thanks for your time. We wish all our listeners a very happy President's Day, including new podcast devotees Brooke and Keely.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
That's all for today's Wall Street Brunch. Look for links to stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash WSB. And join the elite community of real investors to unearth great investing ideas. Just head to seekingalpha.com slash subscriptions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
A fourth-generation iPhone SE is widely expected to be featured, although there is speculation about a new MacBook Air, a new iPod Air, or a surprise reveal. Walmart reports fiscal Q4 earnings before the bell on Thursday, and investors will be anxious for any commentary about the impact of tariffs on China.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
According to SA analyst Jeffrey Fisher, Walmart concedes that a significant amount of merchandise is sourced internationally, but how much and from where? Several online sources offered varied estimates, but all of them suggest that products from China represented well more than 50% of the items on North American Walmart shelves. He estimates a hit on EPS could potentially boost Walmart's P.E.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch, our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis. Hello, today is Monday, February 17th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. This is a special President's Day edition of Wall Street Brunch. Focus will be stock-specific this holiday-shortened trading week, with the economic calendar relatively light.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
above 100 times. Analysts are forecasting a quarterly EPS of $0.65 on sales of nearly $179 billion. Revisions have been bearish in the last 90 days, with 18 downward revisions to EPS numbers compared to 9 upward revisions. On the top line, there have been 11 upward revisions and 10 downward revisions.
Wall Street Breakfast
Apple to unveil new product, Walmart reports results
But Seeking Alpha Analyst Skeptical 2 says, Walmart should be able to accelerate earnings growth with increased share buybacks as cash flow continues to grow, and the company should continue to drive impressive growth regardless of economic cycles in what is likely to remain a favorable operating environment moving forward.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
In addition, the VIX Volatility Index, also known as the Fear Gauge, is back setting new highs for 2025. David Bonson, CIO of the Bonson Group, says stock market volatility is much less about the bad news of tariffs and much more about the uncertainty of tariffs, while talk of tariffs is in a lot of ways worse than the implementation of them.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
The tariff talk, reversal, speculation, and chaos only fosters uncertainty.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
He says he does not believe the administration knows how the tariff situation will play out, but adds, if I were a betting man, I would say that it will persist long enough to do damage to economic activity for at least a quarter or two and ultimately result in a deal with different countries that make everyone wonder why we went through all the fuss.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
Among active stocks today, Rocket, parent of Rocket Mortgage, agreed to acquire real estate broker Redfin in a deal valued at $1.75 billion that will combine one of the most visited brokerage websites with the largest mortgage lender.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
The online lending platform will pay $12.50 per Redfin share in an all-stock transaction, representing a premium of about 63% over the volume-weighted average of the stock for 30 days through Friday. Also in M&A, Varan and Whitecap Resources will combine in an all-stock transaction valued at about $15 billion, including debt, to create a leading light oil and condensate producer.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
Varon shareholders will receive 1.05 common shares of Whitecap for each Varon common share. The company will have 370,000 barrel equivalents per day of combined production and become the largest Canadian light oil-focused producer as well as the seventh largest producer in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Monday, March 10th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. The White House may have forgotten what a real recession looks like, according to one economist, but the financial markets are on full alert for a slowdown.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
And Susquehanna upgraded Credo Technology to positive from neutral, keeping its $60 price target and noting that the company has a growing portfolio of key AI connectivity technologies that are underappreciated. Analyst Christopher Rowland said, In other news of note, Back to the Future promised us flying cars in 2015. Blade Runner promised Nexus 6 replicants by 2019.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
Stock and bond yields are tumbling again as the prospect of a soft landing for the U.S. economy looks further away amid on-and-off-again tariff announcements and the potential impact of mass government layoffs. The S&P 500 is off 2%, and the Nasdaq is down 3.5%. Both are testing lows not seen since September.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
Xpeng wants to bring us both next year. The Chinese EV maker is planning to mass-produce flying cars by 2026, CEO He Xiaoping told state-owned newspaper China Daily. We are integrating vehicle control with AI to develop a new flight control system into such flying cars, making it safer and more user-friendly, he said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
Xpeng aims for its Level 3 autonomous driving technology to surpass global competitors across the board this year. By 2026, XPeng aims to explore L4 driverless capabilities in parking scenarios, including fully driverless parking and vehicle retrieval in parking lots.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
The CEO added that the company is also targeting mass production of industrial humanoid robots with L3 capabilities by next year, which involves fully integrating their hands, feet, mouth, eyes, and brain. And in the Wall Street Research Corner, hedge funds are falling out of love with the China trade, selling China equities for the fourth straight week.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
That's according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage desk. Sales were driven by both shorts and longs at a ratio of 2.3 to 1. Goldman said macro products and single stocks were both net sold and made up 77% and 23% of the total notional net selling, respectively. Onshore and offshore equities were net sold on the week, led by ADRs and H-shares.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
Post-Deep-Seek, China was by far the most notionally net-bought market on the Prime Book year-to-date through February 17th, around which hedge funds have reversed course. Net flow in Chinese equities is now roughly flat on a year-to-date basis. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com. And join the highest level discussion of any stock or ETF with our community of serious investors like you. Find us at SeekingAlpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
Dario Perkins, economist at TS Lombard, says, Both Scott Besson and Elon Musk have said it might be necessary to inflict some pain on the U.S. economy in 2025, in the hope that it will emerge stronger from any short-term downturn. They've said activity is being inflated by government spending, and perhaps a dose of detox can force public debt onto a more sustainable trajectory.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
This is fueled talk of a beset put in U.S. bonds, not equities, and is amplified talk of a potential recession, and that sort of thinking is risky, Perkins adds. Perhaps the new U.S. administration has forgotten what a real recession is like. There hasn't been a real U.S. recession in 17 years, and the fake COVID-19 downturn may have given them an inflated sense of omnipotence. The U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
rebounded quickly from the pandemic and returned to full employment without any long-term scars. But that is only because, one, the recession was largely man-made, the result of lockdowns, and two, officials deployed the biggest fiscal and monetary policy response since World War II, he added.
Wall Street Breakfast
Markets on full recession alert
In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield is back down near 4.2% and just 30 basis points above the 2-year yield. Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, noted, "...it looks like the bond market has decided to bypass short-term inflation concerns of trade barriers and immigration limits and focus on the long-term prospects of slower growth."
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
While everyone is trying to gauge when the next Fed rate cut will come, Torsten Slocke, chief economist at investment firm Apollo Global Management, said, says the market could begin for a shock rate hike.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
The last Fed cut was in December, and the number of months from the final Fed cut to the first Fed hike has historically been as low as seven months, implying that the Fed could hike rates already in June, Sluck said. Among active stocks, McDonald's is topping the Dow gainers after its comparable sales numbers for Q4 overshadowed misses on the top and bottom lines.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
Total comps rose 0.4%, better than the 0.9% decline analysts had predicted. Looking ahead, the company said it expects the 2025 operating margin percent to be in the mid-to-high 40% range. Rockwell Automation is the top S&P gainer after the industrial automation company reported better-than-expected earnings. If the daily gain of more than 10% holds, it'll be the biggest since July 2022.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
For its fiscal 2025, Rockwell repeated its adjusted earnings outlook of $860 to $980 a share, while cutting the midpoint of its sales forecast to $8.1 billion from $8.2 billion. Analysts forecast adjusted earnings of $926 a share on revenue of $8.12 billion.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
An on-semiconductor is slumping after the Chipmunker forecasted current quarter guidance below estimates, while also falling short of fourth quarter expectations. For the ongoing first quarter, OnSemi guided non-GAAP diluted EPS to between $0.45 and $0.55, well below the Wall Street estimate of $0.90.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
Revenue expectations of $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion were also below the consensus of $1.69 billion. In other news of note, David Tepper's Appaloosa Management Hedge Fund took a new 1.5 million share position in Corning during the last quarter of 2024, according to a 13F filing, and it closed out its Adobe stake.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Monday, February 10th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far. Gold topped $2,900 per ounce as it hit another record with cash moving to safety. Spot gold hit an intraday high of more than 2910 before easing back.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
The fund further boosted its holdings in several Chinese tech stocks, including Alibaba, JD.com, and KE Holdings. Stakes were also increased in NVIDIA, Uber, and AMD. Decreased positions include Meta Platforms, Intel, and Amazon. And in the Wall Street Research corner, U.S. Infotech saw the largest net buying from hedge funds since December 2021 this past week.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
According to Goldman Sachs Prime Services, the buying was driven by both short covers and long buys at a ratio of 1.5 to 1. The sector was also net bought every single day of the week, and all technology subsectors were net bought, led in notional terms by software, semiconductors, and semi-equipment, and to a lesser extent, infotech services. The U.S.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
It finished 1.9% higher last week, the metal's sixth consecutive weekly gain. ING says tariff concerns that risk higher inflation and slower economic growth are spurring demand for safe haven assets like gold. Gold is up nearly 10% year-to-date. ANSI Research notes that the potential for gold getting caught up in tit-for-tat tariffs is causing a dislocation in the physical market.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
information technology long-short ratio stands at 1.91 compared to 1.75 at the start of 2025, which is in the 61st percentile compared to the past year, and in the 21st percentile versus the past five years. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
And make sure you're getting the most out of your portfolio with quant, news, and analysis by heading to SeekingAlpha.com.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
Gold in the Bank of England vault is trading at a discount to the wider market. This has seen week-long queues to withdraw the metal, they said. In today's trading, stocks are higher, with the Nasdaq doing the best among the major averages, up 1%. The AI trade is getting jiggy, with Supermicrocomputer rallying again.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
The stock is up 45% in the past five trading sessions, including today, and the company reports earnings on Tuesday. and NVIDIA was added to Evercore's tactical outperform list ahead of earnings at the end of the month. Analyst Mark Lapasis says concerns over DeepSeq lowering aggregate demand are not true and that its lower cost is evolutionary rather than revolutionary.
Wall Street Breakfast
Gold tops $2,900 for another record
In addition, the lower cost in compute is likely to result in increased demand for tokens, which should result in larger parameter models and an acceleration of multimodal tokens. In the bond market, rates are a little changed as traders wait for Fed Chief Jay Powell's appearance on Capitol Hill Tuesday. He returns Wednesday, along with the CPI numbers.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
The simultaneous market upturn in several measures of investment plans was a positive sign, but intentions seem to be flagging again now in the face of greater uncertainty around trade policy, the Doge cost-cutting drive, and European demand for military hardware. We see the manufacturing sector continuing broadly to stagnate over the next few quarters.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
The report erased opening equity gains, and the major averages are now all in the red. The 10-year Treasury yield is back to December lows, below 4.2%. Among active stocks, AbbVie has entered into a licensed deal with Danish biotech Goobra AS to develop Goobra's experimental obesity treatment.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
Under the terms of the agreement, AbbVie will lead development and commercialization activities of GUB 014295 globally. The partnership marks AbbVie's first foray into the obesity field. Kroger announced that chairman and CEO Rodney McMullen has resigned from the company following a board investigation of his personal conduct that was inconsistent with the company's policy on business ethics.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
The grocery store chain said the board was made aware of certain personal conduct by McMullen on February 21st and immediately retained outside independent counsel to conduct an investigation, which was overseen by a special board committee.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
While no specifics were given, it was noted that McMullen's conduct was not related to the company's financial performance, operations, or reporting, and it did not involve any Kroger associates. And Domino's Pizza officially announced that it will sell stuffed crust pizza to compete directly with Pizza Hut and Papa John's.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
As of Monday, the Domino's $9.99 carryout deal included a Parmesan stuffed crust menu option. Domino's is also declaring this week National Stuffed Crust Week. In other news of note, Philip Morris International may be looking to sell its U.S. cigar business. The cigar business was picked up by Philip Morris as part of the deal to acquire Swedish Match AB in 2023.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Monday, March 3rd, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far, the stagflation specter is spooking traders today, wiping out the risk-on move that was booing stocks and weighing on bonds following the weekend surge in crypto.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
Brands include Garcia Vega and White Owl. Sources indicate to Bloomberg that a potential sale is part of the company's strategy to focus on smoke-free products and reduce reliance on traditional tobacco-based products. Currently, Philip Morris is working with advisors to determine buyer interest. A deal price of more than $1 billion is anticipated if a deal happens.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
The February ISM manufacturing index brought with it a, quote, whiff of stagflation risk, economist Mohamed El-Aryan said. It fell more than expected to 50.3 from 50.9 in January. That's barely an expansion territory and lower than the 50.6 forecast. New orders fell to 48.6 from 55.1, and the employment component dropped to 47.6 from 50.3.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
The company said, In 2024, we announced a strategic review of our U.S. cigar business. We have no updates at this time. And in the Wall Street Research Corner, the Goldman Sachs equity team says it continues to recommend investors owning healthcare stocks.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
Strategist David Koston says healthcare offers a defensive tilt and trades at historically low valuations despite outperforming the market by 7 percentage points year-to-date. Goldman Screen returned 41 stocks that have outperformed the median S&P 500 stock since February 19th when the S&P peaked.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
The median stock in the list trades at a 20% PE discount to the median S&P 500 stock, 15 times versus 19 times. Among the picks are Baxter, Merck, Bristol-Myers, Eli Lilly, J&J, and Medtronic. See all 41 names in our story on Seeking Alpha. That link will be at the top of show notes. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
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Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
At the same time, the prices paid component surged to 62.4 from 54.9. That's the highest level since 2022, and raises questions about the potential for the increased production costs to be passed through to the consumers in the form of higher prices," Hilarion said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
Wells Fargo economists noted that the headline index only avoided falling into contraction territory due to wait time as supplier deliveries shot up to 54.5. This was the broadest indication of wait time since the supply chain disruption year of 2022, they said.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
Longer wait times for supplier deliveries are additive because in normal times, such a development is associated with a factory sector that cannot keep up with demand. Since that is not an accurate characterization of what is contributing to wait times today, the expansionary signal from the ISM should, for this month at least, be taken with a massive grain of salt.
Wall Street Breakfast
Stagflation scare
Pantheon macroeconomist Oliver Allen says, Some of the earlier increase in the ISM manufacturing index from October to January reflected manufacturers hurrying to complete orders before tariffs are applied, a rush that now seems to be petering out.