Goldman cuts its S&P target for the second time this month. (0:15) Newsmax soars on first trading day. (1:29) CoreWeave continues to struggle after IPO. (1:55)Show NotesIs Apple’s rumored Nvidia server buy a big deal?Episode transcripts: seekingalpha.com/wsb Sign up for our daily newsletter here and for full access to analyst ratings, stock quant scores, dividend grades, subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium at seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.
Chapter 1: Why did Goldman Sachs lower its S&P 500 target?
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Monday, March 31st, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far, Goldman Sachs has cut its S&P 500 target for the second time this month as its economists raised their projections of a U.S. recession to 35%.
Equity strategist David Koston says higher tariffs, weaker economic growth, and greater inflation than we previously assumed prompted Goldman to cut its year-end view to 5,900 from 6,200 for the benchmark. If the growth outlook and investor confidence deteriorate even further, valuations could decline much more than we forecast, Kostin said. Economists at Goldman Sachs now see the average U.S.
Chapter 2: What are Goldman's projections for tariffs and recession risk?
tariff rate rising to 15% this year from a previous 10% view. Chief economist Jan Hatzius says almost the entire revision reflects a more aggressive assumption for reciprocal tariffs. Goldman bumped up its 12-month recession probability to 35% from 20%, and sliced down its 2025 GDP projection to 1% from 1.5% on a Q4 basis.
The upgrade from our previous 20% recession estimate reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from the White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies, Hatzius said.
Chapter 3: What factors contributed to Goldman's revised economic outlook?
Among active stocks, conservative-focused news network Newsmax opened for trading on its first day as a public stock at $14, above its $10 initial public offering price, and rose from there to a 66% gain before a volatility halt just before 11 a.m. ET. That halt was quickly followed by another and another. Shares remained volatile, but have reached a high of more than $75 intraday.
Chapter 4: How did Newsmax perform on its first trading day?
Sticking with recent issues, shares of CoreWeave are under pressure following its second full day of trading following its IPO last week. The cloud computing company's startup's now-stake debut was far from a dream run, as it closed flat after opening nearly 3% below its offer price on Friday, giving the NVIDIA-backed company a lower-than-expected valuation.
The company raised about $1.5 billion in its IPO. And Wingstop gained another bull as the stock's cheap valuation and growth potential in a tough backdrop earned an upgrade from Jefferies to buy from hold, along with a 21% hike in its target price. Analyst Andy Barish said, In other news of note...
Amid speculation that Apple is planning to purchase $1 billion worth of NVIDIA's GB300 and VL72 offerings, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said it would not boost the iPhone maker's edge in artificial intelligence, quote, anytime soon. Kuo said the size of the order is way too small and compared it to what Meta Platforms has done recently.
Meta is expected to buy 1.3 million GPUs in 2025, which would be roughly 70 times what Apple is rumored to spend. And with Meta's focus on AI servers that develop large language models, cutting operational costs and boosting service efficiency, Apple may be falling short in this space. Second, GB300 NVL72 mass shipments won't start until the first half of 2026, Kuo explained.
Apple's suppliers here, Dell and Supermicro, aren't top-tier assemblers like Foxconn and Quanta, so Apple might not get its racks until the second or third quarter of 2026, or even later. Clearly, this deal isn't going to give Apple an AI edge anytime soon, definitely not in the next 12 months. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section.
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