Economists have long analyzed data to predict the next recession. They’ve also turned to more offbeat economic gauges like underwear sales and skirt lengths. But now, the TikTok generation is seeing recession indicators everywhere. WSJ’s Hannah Erin Lang explains what Gen Z’s fascination with harbingers of economic doom might actually mean for the economy. Jessica Mendoza hosts. Further Listening: - Is the Economy… OK? - Trump 2.0: Where Is The Economy Headed? Sign up for WSJ’s free What’s News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What are the recession indicators discussed?
There's a million recession indicators, but my number one right now is how many A-list celebrities are doing commercials.
People brought tickets to Coachella a week before Coachella. Which is crazy. That's a recession indicator.
Opening Instagram like, damn, everyone got their master's degree this year. Congratulations, but also recession indicator.
I've just searched recession indicator on TikTok. I mean, there's dozens of videos.
Our colleague Hannah Aaron Lang writes about financial markets, and she became fascinated with the idea that Gen Z is looking for economic insight in unexpected places.
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Chapter 2: How does fashion relate to economic conditions?
There's a video with the caption, recession indicators you may not have noticed. My top five recession indicators. Oh my gosh. Recession trend predictions, the biggest recession indicator. And these are all just from like, these are not, you know, news anchors or news outlets. Like these are all everyday people sharing their thoughts on this.
Some economists might be offended by the idea that low-rise genes are somehow related to the nation's financial health. And they'll be ready to shut the argument down with an old truism.
Anytime you bring up a conversation like this, economic data wonks are going to tell you that correlation does not equal causation, right? But that being said, a correlation can still be interesting to look at. We are not in a recession by traditional measures. And the economy, by the measures we have looked at over the course of history, looks to be in a pretty good place right now.
But the economy is so often about how people are feeling, right? How secure they feel, how optimistic they are about their financial future. And, you know, I guess there's something to be said for, like, why wouldn't those feelings be reflected in fashion or film or any other aspect of pop culture?
Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Friday, May 23rd. Coming up on the show, what Gen Z's recession obsession can actually tell us about the economy. Hannah, what generation do you identify with? I think I would qualify myself as older Gen Z. Aha. Gen Z is the generation born between 1997 and 2012.
I also identify as like culturally Gen Z. I think if you spend enough time in certain parts of the Internet, I think I have a Gen Z sense of humor, I guess I would say.
This is going to be perfect. We'll be representing two generations. I'm solidly a millennial. So you're just going to have to walk me through this whole situation. Please hold my hand. That's okay. Gen Z has good reason to be anxious about the economy. Some of their most formative years have been colored by economic turmoil. Many of them were kids during the Great Recession of 2008.
And some of them were going to college or taking their first steps into the real world right when the pandemic hit. Nowadays, the fear of yet another recession is everywhere.
Well, fears of a recession have been triggered after the U.S. economy shrunk in the first quarter of 2025.
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Chapter 3: What is the significance of the Hemline Index?
Made runs the Instagram account Data But Make It Fashion.
So if I'm saying, you know, the Burberry bikini is in, I don't want to just say that. I want to tell you, you know, like it's increased, you know, X percent in popularity this past week and such. So, yeah, a fashion trends, fashion analytics blog.
How many followers do you have now?
I have a little bit over 500,000. Wow.
This past March, Mare made a post about recession indicators that went particularly viral. She analyzed data about current trends in hemlines and lipstick, and she found that they were growing in popularity. Long skirts or maxi skirts were particularly trendy, up by almost 400%. Maire posted that statistic on her Instagram, along with a picture of the Sex and the City character Charlotte York.
Charlotte was looking a little bit concerned, and so it just worked really well to be like, oh no, maxi hemlines are up in popularity. Does that mean we're headed into a recession?
Mare also wrote, quote, In the comments, some people rolled their eyes at her conclusion.
Well, you know, this woman doesn't know what she's talking about. This is all made up.
But a couple weeks later, the stock market did tank. And in the aftermath, Mare's post blew up.
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Chapter 4: How does Gen Z perceive economic trends?
Chapter 5: What is the Men's Underwear Index?
Chapter 6: How do emotional factors influence economic perception?
This is going to be perfect. We'll be representing two generations. I'm solidly a millennial. So you're just going to have to walk me through this whole situation. Please hold my hand. That's okay. Gen Z has good reason to be anxious about the economy. Some of their most formative years have been colored by economic turmoil. Many of them were kids during the Great Recession of 2008.
And some of them were going to college or taking their first steps into the real world right when the pandemic hit. Nowadays, the fear of yet another recession is everywhere.
Well, fears of a recession have been triggered after the U.S. economy shrunk in the first quarter of 2025.
President Trump refused to rule out the possibility of the U.S. entering a recession.
New fears of a possible recession on the horizon, the Dow losing 876 points after falling.
Hannah, can you define a recession and describe why they're so scary?
A recession is a kind of prolonged period of the economy shrinking rather than growing. And for everyday Americans, that means, you know, the unemployment rate goes up, more people lose their jobs, they have a harder time, you know, supporting their families. And lots of folks across the country start to pull back their spending because, you know, times are really tough.
As anybody who lived through, you know, the Great Recession or those, you know, scary months in 2021, would tell you it's not, it can be a very scary time for Americans and their finances.
And on that note, what is a recession indicator? I mean, are these just like portents of a bad time coming?
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