Hannah Erin Lang
Appearances
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
But the economy is so often about how people are feeling, right? How secure they feel, how optimistic they are about their financial future. And, you know, I guess there's something to be said for, like, why wouldn't those feelings be reflected in fashion or film or any other aspect of pop culture?
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
I also identify as like culturally Gen Z. I think if you spend enough time in certain parts of the Internet, I think I have a Gen Z sense of humor, I guess I would say.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
A recession is a kind of prolonged period of the economy shrinking rather than growing. And for everyday Americans, that means, you know, the unemployment rate goes up, more people lose their jobs, they have a harder time, you know, supporting their families. And lots of folks across the country start to pull back their spending because, you know, times are really tough.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
As anybody who lived through, you know, the Great Recession or those, you know, scary months in 2021, would tell you it's not, it can be a very scary time for Americans and their finances.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
In the traditional sense, this is an economic indicator that could tell us that a recession is on the way. So I think like a really classic example of this would be like a rising unemployment rate.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
People brought tickets to Coachella a week before Coachella. Which is crazy. That's a recession indicator.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
This habit of looking for economic clues in more unusual places is not a new one, right? Economists, investors have been doing this for a really long time, trying to find kind of other places that could supplement the information we already have about the economy, maybe offer a hint about what's to come before other kind of lights on the dashboard start flashing red.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
With the idea being that your budget starts getting a little tighter in the household, you start to think of where to cut back. Well, maybe not a ton of people are going to see that you're wearing really old underwear. So if these sales were to plummet, that could be a sign that folks are really starting to feel the pinch in their wallets. Women's beauty trends could be another example of this.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
So one thing I saw cited a lot was when times are tough, women might not have as much money to spend on, say, a new wardrobe or some other upgrade to their look. So they splurge on small luxuries like a tube of lipstick, for example.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
Another really long-standing quote-unquote indicator in the fashion world, the Hemline Index, which kind of talks about the lengths of women's skirts as it relates to the economy and whether or not times are tough.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
I've just searched recession indicator on TikTok. I mean, there's dozens of videos.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
And this one dates back to literally the beginning of the 20th century. And the kind of like the example from that period would be kind of like the 1920s, the flapper girls, shorter skirts. And then, you know, that that tide shifted a little bit in the 1930s as we entered the Great Depression. I don't think it quite bears out as you step more into modern fashion history.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
But that being said, you know, some might say that the economic vibes are bad right now and maxi skirts are back in style. So do with that information what you will.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
There's a video with the caption, recession indicators you may not have noticed. My top five recession indicators. Oh my gosh. Recession trend predictions, the biggest recession indicator. And these are all just from like, these are not, you know, news anchors or news outlets. Like these are all everyday people sharing their thoughts on this.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
Gen Z has definitely taken this to the next level and found some very unusual quote unquote recession indicators.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
This has included everything from low rise jeans coming back to flash mobs and like Lena Dunham leaving New York. Like it's a really extensive list. Of, you know, what these people on the Internet are now calling signs or potential signs of an oncoming recession or economic downturn.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
Which is, you know, the idea that pop music is becoming upbeat and super danceable again because times are tough and people need an escape. And the last time that happened was 2008 with, like, Lady Gaga's Just Dance.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
Well, and if you think about it, like the theory kind of holds because you think about that and you're like, OK, this song was released. Literally, you know, the Great Recession was happening and the lyrics are just dance. It's going to be OK. Like, that's really interesting. Yeah. And the idea is that, you know, that that's happening again.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
Not only is Lady Gaga herself making dance pop music again. Right.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
Right, exactly. But that her kind of artistic descendants are making similar music. So, you know, Charli XCX or Chapel Roan might fall into that category.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
Well, they might've said, who's going to the club in a blazer?
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
If young people are quick to believe that we're headed for a recession, that a recession is imminent, despite economic data itself painting a different picture right now, then I think that does tell us something about how young people are experiencing the economy and that, you know, there are real challenges.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
Economists use vibes-based data all the time. We call it consumer sentiment and consumer confidence. We use this regularly, and we report on it here at the Journal. I should mention here that consumer spending is so important because it's 70% of the U.S. economy, right? So that's sort of what economists are watching for.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
When that spending slows, that becomes a real problem for the economy, which is why we watch sentiment. But recently, the case has been that negative sentiment doesn't always mean that people are going to stop spending, for example. Right.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
Like regardless of whether or not you think low-rise jeans can predict the next economic downturn, I think the fact that many Americans find it believable that we could be entering a recession sometime soon is, you know, an important piece of information about how everyday people are experiencing the economy.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
And I should also add, too, that in circles on Wall Street or economists, folks that debate this on a daily basis in a more professional way, that there's all this reticence about even saying the word recession. It's why people on Wall Street call it recession.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
The R word, which is really quite strange, but it's because by speaking about a recession or, you know, constantly discussing the prospect of an economic downturn, it, you know, there's this... It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Yes, there's this awareness that if you talk enough about how things are going to be bad further down the line, then... people might start to prepare.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
Anytime you bring up a conversation like this, economic data wonks are going to tell you that correlation does not equal causation, right? But that being said, a correlation can still be interesting to look at. We are not in a recession by traditional measures. And the economy, by the measures we have looked at over the course of history, looks to be in a pretty good place right now.
The Journal.
Lady Gaga, Low-Rise Jeans, and the Next Recession
They might start to pull back their spending, right? And that could create the very recession that we had feared. So I think that's an interesting piece of that as well, that perhaps the biggest recession indicator of them all is that we are talking about recession indicators so often.
WSJ What’s News
U.S. Stocks Fall, Wiping Out More Than $3 Trillion in Market Value
So there was turmoil in almost every corner of the market. And of course, what's driving this is professional investors and businesses just scrambling to adjust their plans and their strategies in response to what one analyst called a worst of the worst case scenario when it comes to the president's tariff plans.
WSJ What’s News
U.S. Stocks Fall, Wiping Out More Than $3 Trillion in Market Value
This is something we've been monitoring for a while, but it was definitely cast in very stark terms today. The Magnificent Seven, these large cap tech stocks that were on top of the world for a while. They suffered some really big losses today. The Roundtail Magnificent 7 ETF that tracks all of those as a group, it was down about 7%.
WSJ What’s News
U.S. Stocks Fall, Wiping Out More Than $3 Trillion in Market Value
Amazon and Apple were some of the biggest losers, around 8% or 9% losses today. But also, I was just really surprised by the depth and breadth of these losses. As I mentioned, there wasn't really a part of the market that wasn't touched by this at some point today.
WSJ What’s News
U.S. Stocks Fall, Wiping Out More Than $3 Trillion in Market Value
Today might have been more intense than the days to come. This was the initial reaction, investors grappling with this plan that was much more severe than they had anticipated. But what I'm hearing from the sources that I talk to, whether they're professional portfolio managers or just investors,
WSJ What’s News
U.S. Stocks Fall, Wiping Out More Than $3 Trillion in Market Value
individual investors, is that this volatility, these up and down days seem to be something that's going to stick around just because of the potential impact of this plan. So this is definitely not the end of the effects that we're going to see from this plan. And unfortunately, not the end of what I expect will be continued volatility for investors as well.
WSJ What’s News
U.S. Stocks Fall, Wiping Out More Than $3 Trillion in Market Value
Thank you so much for having me.
WSJ What’s News
U.S. Stocks Fall, Wiping Out More Than $3 Trillion in Market Value
It's fair to say that today was kind of a bloodbath for markets. We certainly got hints that that was coming. Stock futures started to turn lower last night after President Trump's speech. But this was really quite a dramatic day. We saw the S&P 500 fall a lot. We saw the Nasdaq notch its largest one-day point decline on record. Treasury yields fell. The dollar fell.
WSJ What’s News
Big Law Is Split on Trump’s Attacks: Push Back or Lay Low?
There's concerns about a trade war. There's concerns about the economy and even concerns about artificial intelligence. And, you know, if it's really going to deliver profits at these companies, as promised, Tesla stock is definitely being impacted by those broader market trends. But I do think Tesla has faced some unique problems. The company has seen some hits to their sales numbers.
WSJ What’s News
Big Law Is Split on Trump’s Attacks: Push Back or Lay Low?
Competition in the electric vehicle industry is intensifying. So I think that there are Tesla-specific challenges, there are Musk-specific challenges, and also just broader market dynamics at work here.
WSJ What’s News
Trump and Putin to Hold Ceasefire Talks
China on Monday reported that retail sales, which is a measure of consumer spending, accelerated for the first two months of the year. Industrial production and investments also grew more than expected.
WSJ What’s News
Trump and Putin to Hold Ceasefire Talks
On the downside, we did see that the unemployment rate jumped to the highest level in two years, as well as the property market continues to really struggle as measured by things like home sales, new construction starts. And in general, many economists' reactions to the data released on Monday is that it shows that China is on relatively solid footing, but
WSJ What’s News
Trump and Putin to Hold Ceasefire Talks
It's too early to tell exactly how Trump's tariffs could impact the economy.
WSJ What’s News
Markets Plummet as Concerns Around U.S. Recession Grow
It's a little bit of both. One thing that did seem to really rattle markets today were those comments that Donald Trump made over the weekend. Of course, we had Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, later say that there will be no recession in America today. But it does seem there was damage done from those Trump comments.
WSJ What’s News
Markets Plummet as Concerns Around U.S. Recession Grow
And it wasn't so much his answer specifically as much as what it signified about his approach to policy and how he's thinking about markets in his second term. And what does it signify? These comments, and also just the last few weeks on Wall Street, have signaled what looks like a real shift in how investors are thinking about Donald Trump and his presidency and the economy right now.
WSJ What’s News
Markets Plummet as Concerns Around U.S. Recession Grow
In the weeks immediately following Trump's victory, investors were pretty thrilled about what Trump could bring for the That carried through to the new year. Even as Trump was inaugurated, started overhauling the federal government, started to threaten tariffs, there was still that sense of enthusiasm.
WSJ What’s News
Markets Plummet as Concerns Around U.S. Recession Grow
But I started to notice a shift when that first round of tariffs on Canada and Mexico first took effect earlier this month. Of course, there were changes shortly after. But what I called money managers and market watchers the day that that first implementation happened, there was this Kind of shock I heard from the folks I talked to.
WSJ What’s News
Markets Plummet as Concerns Around U.S. Recession Grow
There's this sense that all of this tariff talk and these threats had been a negotiating tactic or all bluster. And some of the reactions I heard were, I can't believe he actually did it. So that's a little bit of what's happening right now is that investors are starting to realize that Trump might not be as fraudulent
WSJ What’s News
Markets Plummet as Concerns Around U.S. Recession Grow
friendly to or as concerned about the stock market as they had initially wanted or hoped for. And then layered on top of that, you have some broader concerns about the health of the U.S. economy.
WSJ What’s News
The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on the Rest of His Agenda
Yeah, it's been a very volatile trading day. And most of this just comes down to the fact that investors are still really searching for clarity, for answers, or even just clues about the direction of Donald Trump's tariff policy and additionally how other countries will respond. respond to that, which companies here in the U.S. will be most exposed to that policy.
WSJ What’s News
The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on the Rest of His Agenda
It really just all orbits around these questions about tariffs. What does this volatility tell us? We've certainly seen today, just given the wild swings in stocks over the course of the trading day, that there's a growing desperation among investors for some clarity on what lies ahead. It tells us that developments on the tariff front can have a really huge impact in markets right now.
WSJ What’s News
The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on the Rest of His Agenda
We saw this brief mid-morning rally today, kind of wild swing up and down after there were these erroneous headlines that President Trump was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs. That report turned out to be false. The White House denied it. But it prompted a really big lift in major stock indexes, then promptly reversed after we found out it wasn't true.
WSJ What’s News
The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on the Rest of His Agenda
And there are kind of two ways to interpret that based on the reporting I've done today. I spoke to some investors who saw that as a reassuring sign that any positive catalyst on the trade front could make a big difference for investors and for markets. The more pessimistic way to view that is a sign of that increasing desperation among the investment community and on Wall Street.
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
So the trade fight is really hitting China at a critical part of its economy. So exports last year actually accounted for nearly a third of China's GDP growth, which was the highest proportion since the late 1990s. So China's economy definitely is focused on exports as a driver of economic growth.
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
And with the US being a major market, any continued trade barriers are really putting pressure on that part of the economy. At the same time, Trump's Liberation Day tariffs also hit many Southeast Asian countries with pretty high levies as well. And part of the strategy for many Chinese manufacturers in the last several years has been to expand their operations,
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
to places like Vietnam, places like Cambodia, Indonesia, and those countries are also now facing high tariffs. And plus, an overall global slowdown, which many economists are expecting if tariffs go this high around the world, could really hurt demand in general for Chinese goods around the world. So it's really pressuring this part of the economy.
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
Yeah, in my conversations with Chinese manufacturers in the last few days, a few have brought up saying we are going to try to look for customers outside of the U.S. Some had mentioned, you know, the Middle East, Latin America. Of course, Southeast Asia is a huge trading partner. But as you mentioned, we are seeing efforts from countries around the world to put up trade barriers to Chinese goods.
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
There is a concern that a flood of cheap goods from China could hurt domestic industries. in their countries. And of course, it's hard to find a replacement for the U.S. market. I mean, it's such a huge component of final demand in world trade. So it's really hard to replace. So we saw in the last several days some Wall Street research houses
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
come out and say, we think these increased tariffs as a result of all of these factors impacting China's export sector could lead to around one to two percentage points of decline in China's GDP growth rate for this year.
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
Yeah, so there have been calls for quite some time from outside economists and government advisors to shift China's economy more toward a consumption-driven economy. such as the U.S. 's economy. And China has long prioritized using manufacturing and investments and infrastructure, that kind of thing, as a driver of growth.
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
But this year we saw that China did identify boosting domestic consumption as its top policy priority for the year. There are efforts to increase money supply, make policy looser and encourage spending, as well as efforts to implement policies such as subsidies for child care and raising wages, expanding pensions, all of which would work. factor into expanding spending from households.
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
There's also been a goods trade-in subsidy program that has been underway, and China is expanding that program this year, which already we have seen a correlating pickup in retail sales of appliances and consumer goods.
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
Yeah, a lot of investors have been waiting for that. It still remains to be seen, although we have seen this year more efforts to step up deficit spending in order to bolster the economy. We saw earlier this year China's leaders set a fiscal deficit to GDP ratio target of about 4%, which is higher than last year's 3% target.
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
And in recent commentary in places like People's Daily, which is the Communist Party's flagship newspaper, there has been commentary suggesting that China is willing to lower interest rates and also to increase deficit spending in an effort to boost inflation. household consumption, business consumption. So it certainly seems like the momentum is shifting more towards stimulus.
WSJ What’s News
Market Turmoil Deepens as Trump Stands By Tariffs
We're still awaiting more details on what exactly that will look like. And perhaps more importantly, we're waiting to see if this kind of pickup in consumer spending would be enough to make up for any hits to exports as a result of tariffs.
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
That's one big question when we talk about retail earnings, possibly a big question as retail customers as well who shop at these stores, whether or not we're going to see retail companies raise prices for customers on store shelves as a result of tariff-related costs. A few companies have already opted to do this.
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
Walmart has said it plans to raise prices this month, maybe early this summer as well. Target has mentioned this might be on the table. What have other retail executives told us about what might happen with prices for shoppers?
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
You've written about some of the different ways that retail businesses of all sizes have scrambled to respond to what can be a really rapidly shifting trade landscape. What are some of the different tactics that retailers are trying to adjust in response to all of these tariff-related challenges?
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
It seems like all this talk of prices potentially going up is spurring some customers to rush to make purchases now. It's something Macy's CEO Tony Spring mentioned in the company's earnings call last week.
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
Hey, listeners. It's Monday, June 2nd. I'm Hannah Aaron Lang for The Wall Street Journal. And this is What's News and Earnings, our look at the broad themes that stood out in the latest earnings season. Today, we're taking a look at retailers. Stores like Macy's, Kohl's and Best Buy have been caught in the crosshairs of President Trump's tariff war.
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
There is this mentality that I've got to buy something now. Maybe that's a part of some of the growth we've seen in fine jewelry, for instance. Maybe some of the big-ticket areas where there's more uncertainty around the size of the impact of pricing changes that may come over the course of the year.
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
I feel like this connects to another reason why investors pay such close attention to retail earnings in particular, which is that it can offer us clues about the economy and whether or not households are shopping less, maybe feeling strained financially. I know it's one reason why. I pay attention to retail earnings as a markets reporter. Are retailers seeing signs of consumer distress?
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
Is that something you heard frequently on the calls you're listening to? And how would you describe the health of the American consumer right now based on what we've been hearing?
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
By the way, you can hear more about that Target consumers boycott that Suzanne mentioned in our special two-episode series, Boycotting Target. We'll leave a link to the series in the show notes. So, Suzanne, have any other major retailers gone so far as to cut or adjust their earnings guidance for the rest of the year?
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
And what are we hearing from executives about what might lie ahead in 2025, even as the details of U.S. trade policy are still changing quite rapidly?
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
Executives are navigating supply chain disruptions and potential cost increases as a result of tariff policies, in addition to fielding concerns about American consumers and whether or not a weakening economy could shrink household budgets and eventually put a dent in sales.
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
And that was What's News in Earnings. Today's show was produced by Zoe Culkin and Anthony Bansi with supervising producer Michael Kosmides. Additional sound courtesy of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Later today, we'll have the PM edition of What's News out for you as usual. I'm Hannah Aaron Lang. Have a great day.
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
Though the complete impact of tariffs is yet to be determined, the policy is now facing legal challenges in federal courts, many retail executives are scrambling to respond to the new landscape of global trade. To break down what we learned from retailers in the first quarter, we're here with Suzanne Kappner. Suzanne writes about the retail industry for The Wall Street Journal here in New York.
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
Suzanne, thanks for joining us today.
WSJ What’s News
What’s News in Earnings: Retailers Scramble to Respond to Tariffs
So what did we hear from retailers about how they are responding to tariffs and the related challenges this earnings season? What stood out to you?
WSJ What’s News
Google’s Future Awaits Ruling in Landmark Antitrust Case
This is not necessarily an unusual impulse for people to have, to try and understand the economy. And when you're an everyday person, it's much easier to maybe filter that through the lens of pop culture, the music you listen to, the celebrities you're talking about, as opposed to the things that an economist might look at every day to understand.
WSJ What’s News
Google’s Future Awaits Ruling in Landmark Antitrust Case
Things like the yield curve, you know, treasury yields, the SOM rule, these can all be quite complex.
WSJ What’s News
Google’s Future Awaits Ruling in Landmark Antitrust Case
Ein sogenannter Rezession-Indikator in dieser Kategorie war die letzte Partnerschaft zwischen DoorDash und Klarna, der Buy-Now-Pay-Later-Service. Also diese Idee von Kunden, die eine Mahlzeit finanzieren, war eine. Und die Popularität des Press-on-Nails, eine, die als Zeichen von Leuten, die sich auf Maniküren oder unnötige Kosten wie diese auswählen können.
WSJ What’s News
Google’s Future Awaits Ruling in Landmark Antitrust Case
If we put all those together, maybe we could have a sense of the financial health of American households, right? But then other times I think this is really just like a joke, a way of expressing economic anxiety or having a laugh.