On this episode of The Chuck ToddCast, Chuck Todd is joined by Marc Caputo, Senior White House Reporter for Axios.Chuck begins by breaking down how the personnel guardrails that existed during Donald Trump’s first term are now gone—and why a potential second Trump administration would look dramatically different from the first.He and Marc then explore which Trump official is most likely to take the blame for the administration’s disastrous tariff rollout, and outline three key factors that led Trump to temporarily reverse course with a 90-day delay.They also explain why Trump can no longer credibly pin economic challenges on President Biden, and why his plan to boost domestic manufacturing may fall short. The conversation turns to Trump’s use of executive orders to target whistleblowers and critics, and who might be managing his so-called “enemies list.”Finally, they assess which members of Trump’s inner circle are gaining or losing favor with the president, and preview a looming controversy that could shake up the Florida governor’s race.Timeline:0:00 Introduction2:00 Trump 1.0 was NOT a blueprint for Trump 2.04:40 This is a brand new style of governing6:22 Was there insider trading based on Trump’s tweet?8:28 The market and rich people are serving as a guardrail10:00 Anti-american sentiment will affect American businesses11:30 Marc Caputo joins the show12:55 The “dear leader” quality to the administration17:37 Howard Lutnick the likely fall guy for tariffs?18:36 Three factors caused Trump to change course on tariffs23:07 Trump 1.0 was completely different compared to Trump 2.027:50 Does the administration regret that they didn’t pass the tax cut first?29:22 Trump gave up the ability to blame Biden for the economy30:00 Manufacturing plants take years to build31:15 Trump working through an “enemies list”?35:05 Revenge agenda is a slippery slope37:00 Is RJK Jr. being reeled in by the White House?39:56 Trump changes his mind constantly43:31 What is Elon Musk’s current standing within the administration?45:46 Is Rubio’s stock rising or falling?48:09 The administration is using AI to monitor social media feeds50:30 Scandal looming over the Florida governor’s race52:55 Chuck’s final thoughts
Chapter 1: What changes in Trump 2.0 compared to Trump 1.0?
Hello there. Happy Friday here at the Chuck Todd cast. This is a bit of a bonus episode. I don't always not always going to drop four in a week, but this has been one of those weeks. And I know in the Trump era, there's always one of those weeks. And that's always a word of warning sometimes. Right. Just when you think, oh, my God, can it get any crazier?
Something else will happen and it will get crazier. But I do think trying to understand the most important thing on the on the Trump tariff pullback, right, that we all know he blinked.
I think it's important to figure out how he got there, because understanding how he got there will then tell us, I think, give us at least a better idea of how to be prepared for what is still going to be an uncertain economic climate for at least the next three months, probably
possibly if it's as if it's as tumultuous as it still looks, we're looking at, you know, what's going to be just a tumultuous 18 months until the voters decide if they want to have a say here on the direction of our economy. But the fact of the matter is, while while Trump sort of stopped what was turning into
the beginnings of a Republican revolt on this and certainly a major donor revolt on his policies. He has staved that off. But it's not as if he can go back and slapdash this on and hope that he's you know, that the same thing won't happen again. So my guest today is Mark Caputo.
And I think Mark Caputo, of all the Trump beat writers, probably has the best insight on how this version of Trump world operates. And I say this version because I said it in the previous update and I'll say it again, which is the biggest mis the biggest. mistake everybody has made with Trump 2.0 is assuming Trump 1.0 was a blueprint or a model.
I think it is pretty clear now Trump 1.0 was the Mike Pence presidency, because it was Mike Pence and Reince Priebus who built that cabinet, who built that staff, who built that team. I'd probably throw Jared Kushner in there as sort of the third guy in here that Kushner
Priebus and Pence were stabilizing forces for conventional economic thinking, conventional national security thinking and conventional day to day governance of the larger entity that is the federal government. And it's pretty clear that by the time Trump got to the end of his first term, He knew exactly what happened, right?
He went through four national security advisors because he didn't like any of them. He went through four chiefs of staff until he got the most compliant one in Mark Meadows, right? And so when he built Trump 2.0, he made sure he wasn't going to have somebody that wasn't essentially loyal to his vision, loyal to his ideas.
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Chapter 2: Who is likely to take the blame for the tariff disaster?
But it's also about sending a message to anybody in the current administration. If you're going to speak out, you might make the list and be careful. It's why you sit here.
Chapter 3: What were the three factors that caused Trump to change course on tariffs?
I saw there's a few lawmakers that would like to see an investigation to see if there was any insider trading, if Donald Trump was trying to give investors a heads up or different people when he made his, what seemed like a vague tweet about this is a good time to buy. Did he already know? Was he already giving insider trading?
Do you expect, do we think that the current iteration of the SEC is going to investigate? I mean, I would argue that there's a lot of shenanigans that take place. Now, part of the difficulty with trying to figure out is, is Donald Trump doing insider information or is he just simply being Donald Trump overly telegraphing every move he makes, right?
He is also somebody who happens to overly telegraph everything he does. And there's, you know, when you, if you know, and I'm sure there are people that simply speak Trumpism and just used his Twitter feed or his X feed or his Truth Social feed, whatever we're promoting these days, as the guidepost to this.
So, look, I don't think you're going to get investigations and you're not going to get many whistleblowers because I think Donald Trump has come to the conclusion that That whistleblowers and internal watchdogs were some of the biggest sources of his political problems in his first term. And he wants to eliminate as much of that friction as you can.
But ultimately, the reason I'm dropping this special pod is because I think Marco Puto is going to be able to paint a picture for you and to understand why. Who's you know, who's on the end? Who's who's got his ear in the moment? Who doesn't have his ear in the moment? Right. Who got benched in this? I'm looking at you, Peter Navarro. What is the status of Howard Lutnick? Right.
Does he have a sell by date? Well, everybody in Trump world is sell by date. We just don't always know what date what dates on the milk carton. But is it sooner or is it later? All these things you're going to learn in this interview. But I do think it's helpful to understand. We're all trying to figure out what guardrails were working with him.
And there was a moment where it didn't look like there was going to be any guardrails on these tariffs, but it turns out there is. Is it rich people calling him and they all have his cell phone number? Is it them that did it? Is it the bond market that did it? Is it members of Congress? Whatever it was, the combination of all of it did serve as a temporary guardrail here on at least...
pulling back on the most catastrophic parts of this tariff policy. We're not out of the woods. And by no means is this a healthy economy right now. And I'll be honest with you, I don't see how this gets better for him. I don't see how in this moment he's going to be talking companies into... putting shovels into the ground and building factories in this uncertain business climate.
So how does he incentivize that for this tariff policy idea to work? And I'm skeptical it's going to work because, again, I equate it to trying to rescue the ice block industry. Refrigeration is what works now. We don't use blocks of ice. You're not going to stop the global economy.
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Chapter 4: How does Trump's economic strategy affect domestic manufacturing?
So already I know some Fortune 500 companies who have gotten some data where they're being told, hey, be prepared for this. If you sell products in Europe, if you sell products in the free parts of Asia, don't be surprised if you see some, you know, form some boycotts, things like this, because there's a lot of anger at America right now over these tariffs.
And that's the thing that I think is is being undersold to this. You He may believe this is going to help Americans, but if it ends up incentivizing American hate around the world and American hate of our companies and our economy, that doesn't lead to good outcomes for the long-term security of the United States.
Chapter 5: Who is on Trump's enemies list?
Chapter 6: What impact do tariffs have on American businesses?
And then he didn't know anything about how Washington worked. And so he delegated a lot of authority to Mike Pence. And Mike Pence, I think, you know, is the more people are learning about the job he did and the things he did that we didn't see every day. You know, there's a core competency to Mike Pence.
You may have some ideological disagreements on certain ideas that he had out there, but he had a core competency to him. And something that came through during COVID, something that when you talk to a lot of governors, Democrat or Republican that were on those COVID calls, you know, the chaos was Trump's. The planning and getting, you know, getting organized was Pence's.
So the point is this, is that we have to stop using anything. This is one of those things where if I could erase everybody's brains of Trump 1.0, don't let it make any impact on you and how you think Trump 2.0 is going to go or is operating. It is more different than it is the same. This is a brand new style of governing.
This is, yes, he tested the electric fences in the first term and found out where vulnerabilities were and where they weren't. But it is not lost on me that there's essentially two holdovers from his first term. Stephen Miller. who is clearly now the keeper of the grievance list as they come up with plans to go get people.
The chilling effect of launching these investigations against anybody that was essentially a whistleblower in his first term, Chris Krebs, who was in the cybersecurity space for the federal government, who was the first Trump-appointed official to say this election was on the up and up.
We're gonna discuss this, and I discuss this with Mark Caputo in a minute, but I do think that you gotta see what this is for. The chilling effect that this administration, and it's more orchestrated by Stephen Miller than it is Trump. One thing about Trump is that he has plenty of grievances, but he's usually a bit too lazy to execute revenge fantasy.
He has revenge fantasies, but actually to execute the revenges. But Stephen Miller has the patience and the bandwidth to do all these things. And these lawsuits, these investigations, sending FBI agents to Chris Krebs' house and to Miles Taylor's house. Yes, it's about rattling them. And it's a little bit about revenge.
But it's also about sending a message to anybody in the current administration. If you're going to speak out, you might make the list and be careful. It's why you sit here.
I saw there's a few lawmakers that would like to see an investigation to see if there was any insider trading, if Donald Trump was trying to give investors a heads up or different people when he made his, what seemed like a vague tweet about this is a good time to buy. Did he already know? Was he already giving insider trading?
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Chapter 7: How does Trump’s administration handle whistleblowers?
And that's the thing that I think is is being undersold to this. You He may believe this is going to help Americans, but if it ends up incentivizing American hate around the world and American hate of our companies and our economy, that doesn't lead to good outcomes for the long-term security of the United States.
So on that uplifting note, on this Friday, particularly this Friday before Passover, I'm going to sneak in a break here. And when you come back, my buddy from Miami, one of the most plugged in reporters that understands how this Trump White House currently works and who's closest to the Game of Thrones, who's the hand to the king these days? It is Mr. Mark Caputo.
So joining me now is the person who I think has the best pulse on the Trump White House. It's not an easy thing. And we're going to discuss how do you know when to take a Trump source at their word, which is one of the great sort of.
enigmas uh trying to uh that that that washington produces these days but mark caputo of axios um the beat writer uh for trump i guess you're what's your official title for axios let me get it right what white house trump white house reporter uh national political reporter some sort of yeah you are Just to give a little bit of your credentials for those that don't realize it.
One of the reasons you're on this beat, you're sort of the king of Florida reporting. I've known for so long political reporting. And the Trump White House is now basically produced by Florida power brokers. Donald Trump became a Floridian of sorts and became the Florida power broker.
Oh, he's a total Florida man. Let's be clear. Yeah, he is now.
100%.
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Chapter 8: What are the implications of the current economic climate for Trump?
Right down to the fact that he's from New York. Right.
But you are the first sort of beat writer not based in Washington for the White House. You are actually based in Miami. You come up a lot. Don't get me wrong. You were kind enough to speak to my USC class a couple of weeks ago. And that was very fascinating. But here you are. And I guess.
The number one question I have after the gyrations of the week with trade and tariff is we know Donald Trump never makes a mistake. So the question is, who takes the fall? It appears Peter Navarro has been benched for a while. Now, we know you can be benched. That doesn't mean you're ostracized. There's a difference. There's ostracizing. There's benching.
And then there's still in the inner circle. Yeah. Howard Lutnick is the first person I want to ask about, because if the next after Navarro, he is the person seen as the architect of this disaster. Who's the who's getting blamed here?
I think you probably hit it on the head. The interesting thing about Lutnik is that he's got so many critics in the administration. And I think a lot of it just boils down to his style. He is this outer borough back-slopping, like, hey, I got to tell you something.
And and he's got the he's got a lot of these Trump equalities where like like no one knows finance better than I. Now, don't get me wrong or me. I mean, he's a billionaire, self-made man, et cetera. But, you know, in the Trump White House, it's like Highlander, right? There can only be one.
There only can be one. But that's the thing. Like, it is always funny to me to watch Republican members of Congress. Who is giving him this bad advice? Who is telling him to do these things? And you're like, wow, you know, you know, it can't be dear leader. We know this. So who's the bad whisperer here? Right. Like, so Donald Trump has wanted to do that.
Let's just be clear. Donald Trump has wanted to do this for 30 years or whatever it was when he first talked about running. The reason he had Peter Navarro there was to cook up a formula. And the formula he cooked up, according to every analyst who knows what they're talking about, was just absurd. The columns were wrong, but it gave Trump what he needed. And so Navarro sort of served his purpose.
But I want to be clear about Lutnick is while I understand all the reporting that's been done about people being annoyed with him and, oh, he went off script and, oh, we did this.
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