Join Charlie and the crew as they discuss the most important election of 2025. Rich Baris, Tyler Bowyer, Brett Galaszewski, Noah Formica, and Terry Deitrich offer the latest polling and on the ground info from Wisconsin, and Mark Halperin lays out the national political scene regardless of who wins Tuesday night. Watch ad-free on members.charliekirk.com! Get new merch at charliekirkstore.com! Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chapter 1: Why is Wisconsin crucial for the 2025 election?
Hey, everybody. Ken, the Charlie Kirk Show. Vote, vote, vote. We have a monster episode here. We talked to Mark Halperin, Rich Barris, Tyler Boyer, and the whole team. How big are the stakes in Wisconsin? They're massive. We'd go through that. And also in Florida. Also, is the anti-Elon hate working? We go in with great specificity and detail about the state of Election Day. That's right.
It's Election Day all over again. Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com, and become a member today, members.charliekirk.com. That is members.charliekirk.com. Buckle up, everybody. Here we go.
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
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Learn how you could protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments at noblegoldinvestments.com. That is noblegoldinvestments.com. It's where I buy all of my gold. Go to noblegoldinvestments.com. It is election day in the great state of Wisconsin and in Florida, so you have to vote, vote, vote.
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Chapter 2: What are the key special elections happening today?
In fact, we're going to be dedicating this entire hour around the special elections, what to expect, what is happening, and all of the elections across the country. Joining us now is a dear friend of the program and great American, Rich Barris, who understands this topic very, very well. Rich, welcome to the program. Rich, tell us first, walk us through what special elections are happening today.
Well, thanks for having me as always, Charlie. It's good to be with you. You know, the one that's going to get the most attention is the obviously the state Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, which is nonpartisanship, but it's really not right. I mean, we see some of these states that have that.
And there's always a Republican or conservative line candidate and a liberal or Democratic line candidate. It's been tough for Republicans in the last couple of goes. Hagedorn took two shots to win one. They're always off cycle.
And he won by the hair of his chinny chin chin, while Democrats have been winning them by pretty comfortable margins because they're credentialed voters that turn out at higher rates in these elections. And that's the real challenge for Republicans in that election today. The second one is in Florida. with fine.
That's a special election in Florida's sixth congressional district, and it's a very heavily pro-Trump district. Again, off cycle, there was some polling out there that suggested that this one could be competitive, but honestly, looking at the early vote numbers, Charlie, it looks closer than it should be or would be in a regular cycle, but it's not looking all that competitive to me.
Republicans by 8 to 10 if you just read the early vote, which I always caution people to do. But that's what it looks like. The media will pine about it if it's not plus 20. You know how they roll.
So explain to me, Rich, why the conundrum of the low-propensity and high-propensity voter? Why is it that Democrats are now succeeding in special elections? When I first started my journey with Turning Point USA and Turning Point Action— I remember back in 2012, 2013, 2014, even 2017, 2018, it was actually advantaged Republicans in these off elections.
It would be that we would be able to kind of shock the world a little bit. I mean, one that I remember is Scott Brown defeating a Democrat for the lion of the Senate, Ted Kennedy's vacated Senate seat in Massachusetts, which actually brought the Democrats down from the 60 vote threshold to the 59 vote threshold.
What has changed over the last decade where we as conservatives went from advantage in special and off elections to now significant disadvantage?
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Chapter 3: How has voter turnout shifted for Republicans and Democrats?
We studied the Trump or bust voter that we talked about all the time. And these people had low to no history, you know, of voting and or low propensity or no propensity to vote. And the struggle was to get them out. And Trump could do that. He was very clearly one of the people who could do that. And he did with the help of a ground game.
So this is something that Republicans have to they have to focus on this. like it is their only job moving forward because it doesn't always have to be this way. Roosevelt was able to get out the Depression-era coalition in crazy election years. It's just a modern phenomenon, but it doesn't have to be the case forever. And it's just something that when we have realignments like this,
Parties struggle to react to it. It's easier for Democrats to react because they just have to enjoy the vote propensity of these other voters that they're now getting that they never used to get during the Clinton era and beyond until now, where it's not that they're really working that hard for it, Charlie. It's just easier. It's natural where it's not for Republicans here.
And that's something that they're going to have to pick up. You know, they're going to pick that ball up and run with it.
So what can we do to change it? So when you're in focus groups, Rich, and you do some of the best polling because you do conversations, what does a Trumplican, so Trump first, Republican second, tell you when they don't want to vote in a special election? So, for example, Elon Musk coming to Green Bay, big deal, meaning that got a lot of eyeballs.
So I guarantee you there are tens of thousands of people up in beautiful Green Bay, Wisconsin, that are now aware that an election is happening. They voted for Trump, but they're making a conscious decision not to go vote. for Mr. Schimel. Why? What do they tell you in those conversations, Rich? What do you hear from them when you are dialoguing? Get rid of all the data.
Give us some of the essence, the raw meat of the conversations.
Well, first and foremost, these people are busy and trying and make scratch and make ends meet. So you have to you have to consider everything they say behind that. Right. But the first thing is, honestly, and this is just a tough conversation Republicans have to have with themselves. They don't view Trump as a Republican. as a typical Republican.
There is still very much a branding issue with Republicans that they're obviously... They've made strides with this, Charlie, right? Younger voters, for instance, they love Elon Musk. They like him. But the older vote that is becoming fractured now for Republicans, he's most unpopular among them. But bottom line is, when it comes down to it, it's an issue of trust. So Republicans have...
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Chapter 4: What challenges do Republicans face in special elections?
It's just that, again, because it is an off cycle, it's not going to be the margin that they would like or that the president would get, for instance. I mean, one in this district, overwhelmingly, this is a Trump double digit district. But again, you know, It's Florida, and Florida is difficult to poll. I would point people back to the polls in 2024.
I believe we were the only poll that had Trump winning Florida by double digits. Everybody else had him winning by four to six points. And that area of the state specifically is difficult to poll, period, let alone when it's a low turnout election. So, you know, looking at the early vote numbers, Charlie, it does look like the Republican is going to win. Fine, he's going to win.
It's just by how much is the question. So well, that a fundraising advantage, by the way, as Democrats almost always do.
If you were to be the architect, Rich, of the Republican approach for the rest of this calendar year, because people say midterms, midterms, midterms, time out, everyone. We have a New Jersey governor's race. We have a Virginia governor's race. We have other specials that are going to pop up. What would your approach be?
What would be the strategy that you would like to see Republicans and the Trump White House embrace for the remainder of this year?
All politics is local. I mean, the bottom line is they have to get these people to believe and they have to stop looking. And I hear this a lot when I talk to consultants. They're looking at these people as numbers. And there's very few people in the Republican movement, you know, the ground game that knows if you're looking at New Jersey, for instance. Where to get these voters out?
They know the neighborhoods, right? They know where to go up Route 9, right? It's not just a number. What neighborhoods do we have to go to to get these people out? And they got to get a little bit out of their comfort zone, Charlie. I mean, they're using a lot of these same old, same old people. You know, you tried to...
Build your organization before the election from the ground up so you know you've seen what Republicans are dealing with. It's just not good enough. There's an element to the Republican Party, the vote now, the base, that they're not used to. These aren't their people, right? And they have to start approaching and engaging people who can do this job and get out the vote.
uh, and be comfortable about these neighborhoods. And that's one of the biggest problems that I see. But bottom line is this has to be tied to Trump, but it can't be forever. This is just the groundwork that you have to lay because Trump is not going to be around forever and you're not going to be able to lean on him forever.
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Chapter 5: What strategies should Republicans adopt moving forward?
That is a good point.
If they lean in on that, be careful. Rich, thank you very much. Private student loan debt in the U.S. totals about $300 billion. YRefi refinances distressed or defaulted private student loans that others simply refuse to touch. YRefi does not care what your credit score is. Many clients are not even able to make the minimum monthly payment on their private student loans. Go to YRefi.com.
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If you can think of them, refer them to YRefi.com. That is Y-R-E-F-I.com. Joining us now is Mark Halperin from Two Way TV, amongst many other very important projects that he's involved in. Mark, great to see you.
Good to see you, sir. Happy Election Day.
Thank you. Absolutely. So, Mark, the obvious question is, what are the two paths in front of us? If Republicans just win the fine election in Florida and maybe even get the upset in Wisconsin, which I find to be very unlikely, what happens? Paint the picture here. What will these special elections tell us, if anything, about this new, interesting moment in American politics?
Well, look, today is big for the people of those states and for the congressional districts, and people in the national press will try to put meaning on it. Your normal mastery of expectation setting, notwithstanding, I don't really have a good handle on Wisconsin.
And, you know, I think you probably make the Democrats the favorite there, but Republicans, not just Elon Musk, but others have gone all out to win today. So I think a win is a win, and that's generally how you try to judge these. Now,
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Chapter 6: Why are Democrats targeting Elon Musk?
where the Democrat nominee will be one that goes to war with their base on two or three major issues, saying that we're not going to embrace open borders, this trans thing's out of control, no defund the police, or will it be a McGovern election where the base triumphs in an all-night party? I think it was in Miami they had their convention that year, if I'm not mistaken. Yep.
And they just go all in. Where do you think the temperature is or is it too early to tell?
It's too early to tell. I'll tell you the challenge that the Democrats have if they want to replicate what most of my moderate Democratic sources say. If they want to replicate Bill Clinton, 92, three really big differences between between now and then. One is the Democratic Party is far to the left of where it was in 1992. So Bill Clinton's ability to move the party to the center.
didn't have to travel nearly the distance someone would have to do now. That's number one. Number two, Bill Clinton was the politician of a generation or more in his skill. And so, for instance, He took positions in 1992 that were absolutely against the base of the Democratic Party, unimaginable that a normally skilled politician. So he was for the death penalty. He was for right to work.
He was for welfare reform. He was for NAFTA. He was for a range of positions that We're at a step with the base, but he pulled it off. And then the last difference, I think, is also pretty fundamental, which is right now the Democratic Party is not hungry to win the way they were in 1992. In 1992, they'd been shut out of the White House since 76. And they basically said, no more.
If we don't nominate a sensible person who can get on the right side of some 80-20 issues, we will be shut out again. And then we will go four or eight more years without winning the White House back. They're not as hungry right now. They're still really beholden to the base. They had the White House a year ago. So it's not some existential threat from their point of view.
And for some of them, they say, well, Trump won't be on the ballot. And so we can beat whoever the Republicans put up because Trump is Trump. That is a huge difference. And it's something that Bill Clinton took absolute advantage of. People said, hey, you know what? We can have the White House after being locked out for more than a generation. I just don't sense that in the party right now.
That's such a smart point. I haven't heard anybody say that, Mark, because it seems from us on the right, it looks like the left is very desperate. They're willing to do whatever it takes. What you're saying is they're not quite as desperate yet. They're not as desperate to forsake the key and core radical left elements of their new coalition.
I don't think it's close. I don't think they're even close to there.
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Chapter 7: Is there a rising populist movement within the Democratic Party?
It'll say Wisconsin Supreme Court race. You tap that button and you're in. It'll give you the list of people to call. It's real easy. You just tap their name and it takes you over to the phone number. It starts dialing them right away right in your cell phone. And you can get through 10, 20, 30 phone calls really quickly.
If every single person within the sound of your voice, Charlie, just did 10 phone calls today, 10 phone calls right now, don't wait an hour from now and maybe two, you're going to miss people that are going to not go to the polls. They're going to turn off their phone, go to sleep, put their head down. We need people to do that now.
10 calls each, and we can get out hundreds of thousands of calls, which we've been doing over the last few days. And I'll kick this over to Brett, but we have our entire team right now across the state of Wisconsin. We have every team member that we possibly could flux into Wisconsin. We've brought in hundreds and hundreds of volunteers who are out knocking doors, making calls.
We have hundreds of people right here in the office who are making calls just this way.
Yeah, I mean, Noah here next to me is one of hundreds of people that are here on the ground from out of state that are physically here in Wisconsin chasing ballots. There may be people listening to the show right now, Charlie, that are in Wisconsin that have been hesitant about coming out to a Super Chase event or hesitant about connecting with one of our TPA staffers.
It's out of their comfort zone. They've never participated in conservative activism. Now is not the time. Now is the time to leave it all out on the field. So one of my calls to action is to anyone listening to the program right now that's in Wisconsin. You have an ability right now to go on the TP Action app, hit Help Knock Doors.
voters near me, and you'll be loaded a list of the 15 closest Republican households to where you're standing. Why is this important? Because there's more value in saying, hey, I'm your neighbor. Have you voted yet today for Brad Schimel versus, hey, I'm a random stranger. I'm Noah Formica from Pennsylvania. Have you voted for Brad Schimel? There's much more genuinity that exists there.
If you own your neighborhood and if we're able to get everyone in Wisconsin to squeeze out an extra 10 votes out of their voting wards, their voting neighborhoods, that could be what we point to tonight after 8 p.m. as the definitive difference maker in such a low turnout election like this. It is not a war of persuasion.
It is a war of getting every single conservative in your neighborhood out to vote. And the TP Action app is the one-stop shop for that. So again, Wisconsinites, and even people in Northern Illinois that are just a short drive away from the Wisconsin border that can drive up to Kenosha, Pleasant Prairie, Bristol, Lake Geneva, please help us. This is a 10-year term on the line.
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Chapter 8: Will Democrats moderate on key issues before the next election?
to take over and stop President Trump's agenda. There's so many things. Act 10, the right to work that saved Wisconsinites $36 billion over the last nine years, will be gone. Voter ID will be gone. You know, just a whole host of things. But the... The chopping of the maps here in Wisconsin will just be brutal to Wisconsin.
It'll set the scene for all of the other battleground states to be targets as well. It's monumental here in Wisconsin. So it's right down to the end here, as usual. We're fighting and fighting because we know this is for the generational future of our state.
Well, and Charlie, the left has... Super clear here in Wisconsin. So Hakeem Jeffrey's talking about that last week. This isn't the first time that we've heard that in Wisconsin. I remember when Brad Schimmel was on your show a couple weeks ago, he was talking about this. About a month ago, Susan Crawford appeared on a donor Zoom call with Reid Hoffman and some other hard lefty donors.
And the theme of the Zoom call was how to win back the U.S. House of Representatives in 26 and Wisconsin's path to doing so. They're openly bragging about this. This is a talking point of Susan Crawford on the campaign trail for a nonpartisan judicial seat. They are going to use a 5-2 majority to completely ruin the Republican momentum that we have in this state.
That is well said. Let's play another piece of tape here just to show the stakes. This is Sean Duffy. The country is watching what's happening in Wisconsin. Play cut 145.
This election couldn't be more important. The country is watching what's going to happen in Wisconsin. Because you have a radical leftist judge who wants to get rid of school choice. She wants to get rid of voter ID. She wants to redraw congressional lines. She doesn't like parental rights. She wants to obstruct Donald Trump's agenda. She believes that criminals are more important than victims.
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