Rich Barris
Appearances
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
Well, thanks for having me as always, Charlie. It's good to be with you. You know, the one that's going to get the most attention is the obviously the state Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, which is nonpartisanship, but it's really not right. I mean, we see some of these states that have that.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
And there's always a Republican or conservative line candidate and a liberal or Democratic line candidate. It's been tough for Republicans in the last couple of goes. Hagedorn took two shots to win one. They're always off cycle.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
And he won by the hair of his chinny chin chin, while Democrats have been winning them by pretty comfortable margins because they're credentialed voters that turn out at higher rates in these elections. And that's the real challenge for Republicans in that election today. The second one is in Florida. with fine.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
That's a special election in Florida's sixth congressional district, and it's a very heavily pro-Trump district. Again, off cycle, there was some polling out there that suggested that this one could be competitive, but honestly, looking at the early vote numbers, Charlie, it looks closer than it should be or would be in a regular cycle, but it's not looking all that competitive to me.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
Republicans by 8 to 10 if you just read the early vote, which I always caution people to do. But that's what it looks like. The media will pine about it if it's not plus 20. You know how they roll.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
And the same thing when I started my career as a pollster, and this is the first time in my lifetime it's been like this. It was always that Democrats had kind of a bigger base among the adult population and the registered voter population, but likely voters gave Republicans an advantage because educated voters vote at higher rates. That's really what it comes down.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
Education and age are really the two demographics that explain this. As more liberals from the 60s and 70s get older, Charlie, they're now seniors, and they're more educated than they used to be. Seniors vote at higher rates, college degree and higher, advanced degrees vote at higher rates. So now the world is upside down, and Republicans are the ones who are –
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
who are figuring out or trying to figure out, not doing a great job at it on off-cycle elections, but this is new to them, how to get younger voters out, how to get working class voters out. And it just, this is, again, the first time in my lifetime, your lifetime, that that's been the case. Leading into the election for president in 2024, this became real clear.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
We studied the Trump or bust voter that we talked about all the time. And these people had low to no history, you know, of voting and or low propensity or no propensity to vote. And the struggle was to get them out. And Trump could do that. He was very clearly one of the people who could do that. And he did with the help of a ground game.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
So this is something that Republicans have to they have to focus on this. like it is their only job moving forward because it doesn't always have to be this way. Roosevelt was able to get out the Depression-era coalition in crazy election years. It's just a modern phenomenon, but it doesn't have to be the case forever. And it's just something that when we have realignments like this,
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
Parties struggle to react to it. It's easier for Democrats to react because they just have to enjoy the vote propensity of these other voters that they're now getting that they never used to get during the Clinton era and beyond until now, where it's not that they're really working that hard for it, Charlie. It's just easier. It's natural where it's not for Republicans here.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
And that's something that they're going to have to pick up. You know, they're going to pick that ball up and run with it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
Well, first and foremost, these people are busy and trying and make scratch and make ends meet. So you have to you have to consider everything they say behind that. Right. But the first thing is, honestly, and this is just a tough conversation Republicans have to have with themselves. They don't view Trump as a Republican. as a typical Republican.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
There is still very much a branding issue with Republicans that they're obviously... They've made strides with this, Charlie, right? Younger voters, for instance, they love Elon Musk. They like him. But the older vote that is becoming fractured now for Republicans, he's most unpopular among them. But bottom line is, when it comes down to it, it's an issue of trust. So Republicans have...
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
A lot of work to do to convince these people, like if they were to vote for Trump, voting for them will do something. It'll mean something. They're very skeptical of both parties, and they're not in love with the party itself. They came out to vote for Trump because they did believe, you know what, he's something different.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
You have to get it through their heads that voting down ballot and voting in these off-cycle elections is going to help Trump. That's a good start. And by the way, it will impact them. A lot of these elections they don't really think is directly going to impact them when you and I both know that these elections will sometimes have the most impact on them, right? So they may not know it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
They may not realize it. But the local elections matter. Supreme Court will matter. They will dictate whether or not Republicans keep or lose to House districts probably. So that impacts them. And they just don't know that. And you got to remember, they're just trying to get up, go to work, do their job, get paid and have a normal life without crazy nonsense.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
And the opponent, the opposition represents crazy nonsense. And Trump needs help. He can't do it on his own. And that's really a message that they have to get. But they have to believe it, which is probably the biggest hurdle with Republicans constantly trying. Yeah, I mean, there's no other way to put it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
Constantly stabbing each other in the back or talking about something the president doesn't support or they have to get unified. Everyone's got to get on the same page. Republicans, you're out of time. I mean, really, you have to get on the same page here. People like you and others did a lot of hard work before this last election, Charlie, and it's...
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
They cannot misread the signs of this election. They wanted a certain kind of republicanism. It's new, and the party better roll with it. They have a window here. I mean, that's how I would describe it.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
So basically this weekend, which is always good, the president came in and gave fine as the Republican a tele rally. Basically, there was an internal poll that was conducted by Fabrizio and associates. He polls for some of the president's pack, if I remember correctly. The Wall Street Journal does a jointly conducted poll with them as well with the Democrat.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
And he did have the Republican down, and it was all about turnout. However, I mean, Charlie, we have a good gauge on early voting in Florida now. We have absentee ballots, and you have in-person voting. And we can see – is it – Not as big of an advantage as Republicans would like. Sure. But we do have those numbers bipartisanship. And that's something we don't have in Wisconsin.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
So there's also not a ton of crossover vote in the state of Florida anymore. We just don't see it. We don't see a ton of Republicans, you know, 12, 13, 14 percent voting for the Democrat. or vice versa. So it does look like the Republican is obviously favored there.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
It's just that, again, because it is an off cycle, it's not going to be the margin that they would like or that the president would get, for instance. I mean, one in this district, overwhelmingly, this is a Trump double digit district. But again, you know, It's Florida, and Florida is difficult to poll. I would point people back to the polls in 2024.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
I believe we were the only poll that had Trump winning Florida by double digits. Everybody else had him winning by four to six points. And that area of the state specifically is difficult to poll, period, let alone when it's a low turnout election. So, you know, looking at the early vote numbers, Charlie, it does look like the Republican is going to win. Fine, he's going to win.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
It's just by how much is the question. So well, that a fundraising advantage, by the way, as Democrats almost always do.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
All politics is local. I mean, the bottom line is they have to get these people to believe and they have to stop looking. And I hear this a lot when I talk to consultants. They're looking at these people as numbers. And there's very few people in the Republican movement, you know, the ground game that knows if you're looking at New Jersey, for instance. Where to get these voters out?
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
They know the neighborhoods, right? They know where to go up Route 9, right? It's not just a number. What neighborhoods do we have to go to to get these people out? And they got to get a little bit out of their comfort zone, Charlie. I mean, they're using a lot of these same old, same old people. You know, you tried to...
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
Build your organization before the election from the ground up so you know you've seen what Republicans are dealing with. It's just not good enough. There's an element to the Republican Party, the vote now, the base, that they're not used to. These aren't their people, right? And they have to start approaching and engaging people who can do this job and get out the vote.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
uh, and be comfortable about these neighborhoods. And that's one of the biggest problems that I see. But bottom line is this has to be tied to Trump, but it can't be forever. This is just the groundwork that you have to lay because Trump is not going to be around forever and you're not going to be able to lean on him forever.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
So you have to convince these people that, well, you know, what Trump believes his agenda is what this party is now about. And right now they don't believe that they don't.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
There is, and that's a short-term gain strategy, and they'll get those short-term gains if they're lucky, and they'll try to spin it into a greater narrative and go from there and make another decision after they get those short-term gains. And why am I saying that?
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
Because Elon is the most unpopular among older voters, among, again, like I said, younger voters who they know are difficult to get out in these elections. He's actually pretty popular. So it's tough to get him with that. It's a stupid long-term strategy. It is.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
Because in a way, Trump has made the Republican Party cool again for a lot of these younger people who would never vote for a Republican until the era of Trump. And they know that, and they're banking on these voters staying home. And if they do, then they can claim See, he's unpopular with everybody. He's toxic. And maybe even sideline him, convince Republicans to sideline him.
The Charlie Kirk Show
WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025
But it is a dumb long-term strategy because there's, look, I don't mean to sound cruel. I just speak in generalities because it's the nature of what I do. That is not a long-term viable plan because those voters that you're relying on now are not going to build your coalition in the future. So five years from now, you're going to have a problem.