Monday was a disorienting up-and-down day for the markets. Obviously, the markets are nervous about tariffs, but what could ease their nerves and speed the transition to reviving American manufacturing? Andrew and Blake react to comments by Bill Ackman, and then E.J. Antoni of the Heritage Foundation explains how the Trump Administration could reassure business owners with slight tweaks to its tariff strategy. Watch ad-free on members.charliekirk.com!Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chapter 1: What is causing the market volatility?
Hey, everybody. Welcome to The Charlie Kirk Show, this breaking news edition. It's myself and Blake Neff. We go through the breaking news of the day, including additional China tariffs, wild swings in the Dow of 2,600, plus the largest single-day point fluctuation in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. What's causing it? What's behind it? We also bring on Dr. E.J. Antoni from Heritage
to help us make sense of these economic indicators and this volatility in the market. But listen, here's the bottom line. Stay the course, stay steady, keep your wits about you. The sky is not falling. We break it down right here for you. Please consider becoming a member at members.charliekirk.com. That's members.charliekirk.com and become a paying monthly subscriber to our show.
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Chapter 2: What are the implications of the U.S tariff strategy?
I'm Andrew Colvett, executive producer of The Charlie Kirk Show, and I'm joined by the one and only Blake Neff, one of our producers here on the show. Blake, this has been an action-packed morning when it comes to the economy, financials, the tariff war, the trade war. But Blake, let's just bring our audience up to speed of what's happened in the last few hours here.
We have seen the largest, just by point, maybe not by percentage, But by points, a 2,600-point swing on the Dow was down like, you know, let's say 1,500 points. It swung up to as high as about 850, 860 based on some rumors that President Trump was considering a 90-day pause in his tariff regime. That turned out to be fake news, fake news. But in the meantime, we've seen the market fluctuate.
Currently, it's down about 940, the Dow. But here's what I would say to everybody out there watching wondering what the heck is going on. Don't pay too close of attention to the market currently. There is a lot of moving pieces. There is a lot that is changing in and in flux any given moment. So everybody just take a breath, breathe.
Let's just assume that the market has factored a lot of this stuff in. There will continue to be market shifts and fluctuations. Nevertheless, we don't know where all this is going to go. We don't know where it's going to land. But the sky is not falling, I assure you. Despite a lot of prognosticators and economists awfulizing on the internet, awfulizing on business shows and the like.
So Blake, I want to get your take on this. I know that you are, let's just say, in the spectrum of pro-tariff or anti-tariff. You're sort of I would say somewhere in the middle. So I'm curious about your take of what you've seen this morning. We were on chats Sunday night, basically predicting, I would say, a much bigger market collapse than what we've ultimately seen.
Now, the day is not done yet. It's about we're down 840 as I'm looking at it right now. What is your take on the news that's unfolded so far?
Well, it's been back and forth all day. The line I saw was when there was basically a false report that a 90-day pause was likely or imminent, the overall stock markets rose about $2 trillion in value. It's three. Yeah, three trillion maybe. And it's gone up and down, up and down all the day.
And I think probably the reason it's more moderate is I think there's a greater sense that some sort of deals are likely to be made. We have the European Union offering to junk a bunch of tariffs. We have Vietnam offering to eliminate all tariffs if they can make a deal. And we have Trump saying we're basically open to negotiating with every country that isn't China. And if you take... The U.S.
trade deficit, most trade the U.S. does is not with China. So if you reduce the range of trade war from every single country in the world to just China, that's undoing a lot of what we've announced in the past week. As you said, I'm more in the middle on this.
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Chapter 3: How are other countries responding to U.S. tariffs?
So this was European Commission President Ursula, that's quite the name, von der Leyen. And she says the EU stands ready for a zero for zero tariff deal. Now, you know, she makes it sound like this is something they do all the time. Everything's fine. I don't know why we couldn't have just, you know, gotten together and hammered this out. Well, here's the problem.
They couldn't hammer this out because the EU are really good negotiators. The United States has been locked in by a free trading, I would say, cult that sold a lot of our workers And so why is she willing to say this now? She's willing to say it because President Trump is playing hardball and the world is quickly catching up to the fact that we're not messing around.
Now, yeah, we've lost trillions in market value over this trade war, this tariff policy. to adjust essentially a one to $1.5 trillion trade deficit. And a lot of people say $8 trillion in market cap is not worth a $1.5 trillion trade deficit. You have to expand that over years, folks.
And you have to also assume the human price that has been paid as a result over years of these trade tariffs and these trade barriers that these countries put up. So Guess what?
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blake is the sky falling what does bill ackman say break break down this whole story for us of course of course so bill ackman he's a wall street veteran very opinionated he's been a guy a very loud voice on twitter and then x over the past few years he very notably was one of the uh
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Chapter 4: What is Bill Ackman's perspective on the tariff issue?
Honored to be joined by Dr. EJ Antoni. He's an economist over at Heritage. Dr. Antoni, welcome to the show. Thanks for making some time here on a breaking news day. Sum up for us what you are seeing. The market looks like Dow is down 480. I mean, it was down much lower than that. Then it shot up to about plus 840 on some fake news of a 90-day pause in the tariff war.
Now we're back down at 450, something like that. We're hearing news about 50 plus countries that are at the negotiating table. We've got Bibi Netanyahu has just arrived at the White House. Lots happening. Make it make sense for us.
Well, Andrew, thanks for having me. Unfortunately, a lot that we have to go on right now is really just rumor, and that's why there's so much volatility in the marketplace. Now, there are a few things that we know for sure, right? Like you mentioned Benjamin Netanyahu being in town. That's something we can definitively say is the case. But as far as nations being at the negotiating table,
Again, there's rumors that there's a lot more. There's rumors that there's a lot less. We have heard some EU officials go on the record saying that they are willing on certain things to go to zero tariffs if the US does as well. So again, there is definitely some good progress here. But overall, there's a lot of rumor, which means there's a lot of volatility. Another thing that we know for sure
was that because there were so many short positions on wall street as soon as we saw a little bit of an uptick today in stocks there was a rush to cover in other words people were starting to uh to buy stocks for fear that if the price went up they'd have to buy them at a an even higher price now normally stock prices going up would be a good thing but
In the case of a short position, it's exactly the opposite. You're betting on things going down, not up. So whatever the case, this all caused a tremendous amount of not just volatility, but a huge swing. The Dow had its biggest intraday swing ever, moving over 2,600 points. between its lowest and its highest point of the trading day, and we're only halfway done at this point.
So, again, tons of rumors, which means tons of volatility. Markets are looking for direction. They're looking for definitive answers. We thought we were going to get that last week with the tariff announcement, and unfortunately, because of the way these tariffs have been structured, we've gotten exactly the opposite of clear answers. We've gotten a lot of misdirection.
Yeah, I want to go into that idea of the way these tariffs are structured, Dr. Antoni, because there's been a lot of back and forth, especially on social media, about that some people feel that President Trump shot too high on the tariffs, that they're not one-to-one, but they say they're factoring in trade deficits as well as other non-tariff-related trade barriers.
Basically, President Trump, if I was looking at this I would say that he is very provably a true believer that he wants to get equal trade, meaning no trade deficit ongoing with the United States and our trading partners. I predict that this is going to be a fairly long term struggle and a trade war, if we want to use that word. Are you seeing the same?
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Chapter 5: How can businesses navigate tariff-induced uncertainties?
President Trump absolutely has the right goal. And I even think that his method, if you will, or his tactic of reciprocal tariffs was a good one. The issue here is how that was implemented. The issue here is that he has people within his administration who frankly have not served him well enough, who did not provide him with the reciprocal tariff schedule that That was promised.
That's the issue here. And again, if you look at markets reaction, when it was first announced we were going to have this 10% across the board tariff, markets actually rallied initially. The futures markets went up, I think, about 1.5% on that news. But then all of a sudden, when this tariff schedule appeared. where it made absolutely no sense.
These numbers clearly did not come from tariff and non-tariff barriers. That's when futures started to tumble. And then we've had now three days, basically, where the markets have really taken it on the chin. Again, this all has to do with uncertainty. People don't know where we're going to go from here. And that's a problem.
107.
And I said, somebody said, well, what would you do? What can you do? So easy. I drop a 25% tax on China. And... And, you know, I said to somebody that is really the messenger. The messenger is important. I could have one man say, we're going to tax you 25 percent. And I could say another. Listen, we're going to tax you 25 percent.
I mean, there's tons of these clips around. So, I mean, here's what I and he's been consistent throughout the years. And I think he's seeing this moment as his one opportunity to where he's early on in his term to seize this issue and push it forward. Now, I will agree that the way it was done, I think, has spooked the markets. I think you could have done it a different way.
So let's game this out then, Dr. Antoni. So where would you like to see his strategy go from here? Because Trump is going to claim a win one way or the other. So we know politically that's going to be part of the next step.
What does he have to do to sort of claim plausibly that his tariff and his policies have effectuated the change he wanted while also rewarding the markets, bringing everybody to a stable place with predictability?
Well, I think one of the key things is going to be during these negotiating processes with different countries will be to come up with actual average effective tariff rates. So you look at a nation like Canada, look at all of their tariffs, but also their non-tariff barriers, their quotas, for example, that they put on things like American dairy products.
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Chapter 6: What economic insights does Dr. EJ Antoni provide?
Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here. What does the future hold for business? Ask nine experts, you'll get all sorts of different answers. In fact, you might get 10 answers if you ask nine experts. They'll say a bull market, a bear market, rates will rise or fall, inflation up or down. Can someone please invent a crystal ball?
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Dr. Antoni, you were talking about something, and I think it's a nuanced point, but I think it's incredibly important because... you brought up the reconciliation package. Now, there was some waffling, and I would say Congress was attempting to water down some of the spending cuts, the tax, extending Trump's tax cuts. There was, I mean, you've got the moderates and you've got the fiscal hawks.
And I mean, what we were getting was a muddled mess. I do think one of the unintended consequences, positive consequences of what we're seeing in the markets is now Congress has, added incentive to ensure that we are getting the supply side relief that you're talking about, meaning are we going to get deregulation? Are we going to get these tax cuts extended?
Are we also going to add this 10% baseline tariff? You categorize it a different way, but what that does is it essentially builds in that revenue into this reconciliation package. Continue on with that, because I think it's a really important point that nobody's really bringing up at this point.
Well, thank you, Andrew. these different tariffs, which are going to generate revenue. These tariffs are being put in place by the executive and not put in statute by the legislature. They can't be counted in the reconciliation process in terms of revenue that's going to come into the treasury.
And that's so important because under reconciliation, this is supposed to be a process by which you take an existing budget and you basically just tweak it. And so you're not supposed to have drastic changes to either revenue or expenditures. you're supposed to essentially have no effect. It should even out.
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