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Chapter 1: What is in President Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill'?
And again, the Republican majority in the Senate is not particularly large. The Republicans currently have 53 seats in the Senate. You could easily see some of the quote unquote moderate Republican senators, like, for example, Lisa Murkowski in Alaska or Susan Collins in Maine drop off. If the bill is not conservative enough, you could see people from the opposite side drop off.
This is a very complicated process. Now, the markets right now have a tax cut already priced in. They believe it's going to happen. If this tax cut does not happen, if somehow this whole thing falls apart, disaster area for the Trump administration, quite obviously.
Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin on Wednesday, one of the more conservative members of the Republican caucus, he said that he's worried the House Republicans reconciliation bill is going to go down.
I think that other ship with the big beautiful bill, I think that's the Titanic. I think that's going down because I think I have enough colleagues in the Senate that this has resonated with that are saying, yeah, we've got to return to a reasonable pre-pandemic level spending. But I always add this, plus a process to achieve it and maintain it.
Okay, so again, if somehow Trump pulls this off, major act of political magicing by the Trump administration and by Senator John Thune, the Senate Majority Leader, and by Mike Johnson in the House. It is pretty amazing that the United States is so addicted to spending that even talk about work requirements for welfare. This is incredibly controversial. It's an amazing thing.
That, by the way, is the mark of a country that has been high on its own supply for far too long. It is an unserious country that refuses to come to a reckoning with the reality that is, for example, our $37 trillion national debt that is not going to get smaller anytime soon. We'll get to more on this in a moment. First, you know what's kind of funny.
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Chapter 2: How does the Laffer Curve relate to Trump's economic plans?
For example, yesterday, President Trump said that he has a disagreement with Apple's Tim Cook about the construction of the iPhone. So Tim Cook has been attempting to reshore manufacture of the iPhone away from China and toward India. That's a giant win for the Trump administration. Take the win, Mr. President. That is a good thing.
India has been increasingly oriented toward the United States basically since the late 1990s. China is a geopolitical enemy of the United States. Moving the manufacturer of the iPhone from China to India is a win.
But President Trump said in Doha Qatar yesterday that he is interested in reshoring the manufacturer of iPhones completely to the United States, which would only increase the price of the iPhone by, what, double? I mean, really, like this sort of talk, just let Scott Besson talk about the economy. Please, Mr. President, just let the Treasury Secretary do his thing. Here's President Trump on Apple.
And I had a little problem with Tim Cook yesterday. I said to him, Tim, you're my friend. I treated you very good. You're coming in with $500 billion, but now I hear you're building all over India. I don't want you building in India. You can build in India, if you want, to take care of India, because India is the highest, one of the highest tariffs
nations in the world it's very hard to sell into india and they've offered us a deal where basically they're willing to literally charge us no tariff so we go from the highest tariff you couldn't do business in india we're not even a top 30 in india because the tariff is so high
to a point where they have actually told us, I assume you too, Scott, you were working on that also, that there will be no tariff, right? Would you say that's the difference? They're the highest, and now they're saying no tariff. But I said to Tim, I said, Tim, look, we've treated you really good. We put up with all the plants that you built in China for years. Now you got to build us.
We're not interested in you building in India. India can take care of themselves. They're doing very well. We want you to build here and they're going to be upping their production in the United States. Apple. So Apple's already in for 500 billion, but they're going to be upping their production.
So what do markets do? Markets are effectively prediction mechanisms and markets are trying to figure out what Trump means, what he's going to do. And this sort of uncertainty, this is not tactical uncertainty. This is not strategic ambiguity here. This is actual confusion.
Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says a thing, and then it's immediately contradicted by Peter Navarro or Howard Lutnick or the president.
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