Next Up with Mark Halperin
Why Stephen Miller and JD Vance Have All the Power, Plus Rand Paul's Favorite Trump Admin Disruptors
Tue, 6 May 2025
Mark Halperin begins the show discussing the two most powerful people in the Trump administration - Stephen Miller and JD Vance. Then Senator Rand Paul joins to discuss the negative comments he's hearing from his constituents about tariffs, the fallacies he says the need for tariffs are based on, why the trade deficit is "meaningless accounting," his efforts to fight "risky research," his favorite Trump admin disruptors, and more. Then Democratic veterans Steve Elmendorf and Karen Skelton join to discuss the state of the Democratic party, what they can learn from Trump, and what 2028 Democratic hopefuls need to change to win back voters.
Chapter 1: Who holds the most influence in the Trump administration?
Welcome in, everybody. Mark Halperin here, ready to tell you what's next up. I appreciate you joining with this episode. We'll talk to Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. We'll also have a conversation about what the Democratic Party can do and is doing to try to counteract Donald Trump. And, of course, grateful to you for being part of what is our third episode.
I'm going to let you in on a little secret here. I'm going to tell you about the king's ear. Who's got it?
go back to ancient history and anytime there's a king or a leader a ruler or a president there's a lot of palace intrigue around the question of who has the king's ear who gets to influence what the top person does and of course that's a lot about palace intrigue it's a lot about gossip but it's also about policy and what happens and donald trump the court of donald trump is an intriguing place.
There's been a lot of conversation about who is influential right now for this president at this time. Donald Trump is misunderstood in a lot of ways. He's a very curious guy. People, I think, sometimes caricature him as not being curious. He's extremely curious. He's extremely interested in soaking up information. And like Bill Clinton, he wants a range of options.
And he stays up late like Bill Clinton, and he wants to talk to people on the phone or in person to get more information. The question of who gets to influence this president is paramount. It's of interest and Not just Washington lobbyists, members of Congress and the media, but governments around the world want to know who influences this president.
Had a crazy example this past weekend where apparently he's met in Florida with John Voight, the actor, who suggested, well, maybe there should be a tariff on foreign films. And all of a sudden now that president is exploring that as a policy, put it out on Truth Social. To influence Donald Trump most directly, regardless of who you are, you want to be proximate to him.
You want to be in his presence. So you'll see people fighting to get in the Oval Office. You'll see people fighting to get on the patio at Mar-a-Lago. That is the best way to influence Donald Trump, to be in his person. Over time, people rise and fall. That happens in all courts of all kings. But Donald Trump has shown in this term a fair amount of consistency. The people around him
with few exceptions who have influence have stayed the same. There are some changes and we'll talk about those. As I said, being near him is important. What's also important is if you do well on television and if there's good buzz around you. Those are extremely important to Donald Trump in terms of who has influence.
I talked on Two-Way with my colleague, Sean Spicer, about the factor of television. What are the ways to have Trumps here? Because Besson clearly does now. So whether you're Besson or Stephen Miller, what are the keys to getting Trumps here?
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Chapter 2: What role do media and public perception play in Trump's decision-making?
Well, to win the surrogate war, which he's clearly done, meaning if you read the comment that Caroline's putting out, when you know that Trump is hearing from disparate folks that X person is doing a great job, that's number one. Number two is obviously going on Fox News and other high-profile type things.
And I would say that those are probably the two, to have the echo chamber on your side and to have the media on your side, the key media.
So with Donald Trump, anybody can get through. It doesn't matter who you are. If Donald Trump wants to talk to you, no matter what kind of guardrails are put in place, he is going to get you on the phone. He's going to get you in person. He's going to hear what you think. That is different.
That is different than most people who've been president or run for president or have had senior positions in the American government that I have covered. Here also from the morning meeting, Dan Turntine talking about what he saw when he worked for the Clintons and for Nancy Pelosi.
In both instances, they have people who had their cell phones who could reach them at times. There was a pretty formal process. And you had to be careful if you went directly to the Clintons or to Nancy Pelosi with a message of like, you know, I've got concerns or whatever.
you would hear from staff in some way um to basically say look there's a chain of command that you need to work the problem up through things only get to the principal when they've either like hey we've thought of everything here's the you know it now needs your attention but if you uh step oh if you were to step over people you would get your hand slapped
So with Donald Trump, things are different. He wants you to be good on TV, particularly on Fox News. He wants there to be good buzz around you. He also wants you to have the support of the MAGA movement. If there's someone who wants influence with Donald Trump who MAGA doesn't like on social media, on podcasts, it makes it hard for Donald Trump to continue to listen to them.
Two people who have risen quite high in this administration already. Very influential. Vice President Vance and Stephen Miller, senior advisor to the president. I tell people all the time, if you think they're influential, figure out how influential you think they are, double it, and then be ready to add on more.
There's almost no limit to what these guys are being able to do inside the government. The president talked a couple days ago about how influential Stephen Miller is in the context of being considered to be, he says, the national security advisor.
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Chapter 3: How does Stephen Miller and JD Vance wield their influence?
It's got all the circumstances, all the traits you need to have influence with Donald Trump to be in the king's ear. But some people are saying maybe, maybe, He's doing a little bit too much. Maybe, maybe the rule for Donald Trump is going to kick in. He doesn't like people who produce bad news, but sometimes he doesn't like people who get too much attention.
There's one other group that has the presidency ear, and they're people who are not used to being in the ear of anyone. They're used to having their own courts, their own posses around them. Those are the millionaires and billionaires who have become a key part of the Trump coalition. Now, some of these people are there on a regular basis. Some are in the presidency every so often.
They're first amongst not equals. Elon Musk, the richest guy in the world, he definitely has the presidency and he's had it for a while. But there are a lot of other folks from Silicon Valley, including Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos, who famously attended the inauguration. people like David Sachs and others who are part of this government, formally or informally,
are very much in the president's ear donald trump is being guided by those folks to a very large degree not just in terms of policy but in terms of attitude most of them were not trump supporters before they are converts donald trump like many kings likes converts he likes people who've come over to his side and he respects the fact that they're very rich and they've accomplished a lot they have his ear they're extremely influential and not just on specifics
But they serve, as I understand it from talking to people around the White House, as kind of a validator. If these folks believe in Trump politically after being Democrats, if these folks are endorsing what Trump is doing, his policies must make sense.
It's part of why he's got confidence in his tariff policy, even though a lot of these folks previously were not big on these kinds of trade positions. And Elon Musk, of course, has been critical in that area. This reminds me of what happened during the Kennedy administration.
You had a bunch of people who were known as, according to the very famous book by David Halberstam about the Vietnam War, the best and the brightest. People make the mistake in thinking Halberstam was saying they were the best and the brightest. The title was meant ironically, that while they were very accomplished, a lot of them were from academia, while they were thought to be very smart,
They didn't do a good job. They did not whisper in the presidency or the right things history records about Vietnam. These current best and brightest world class accomplishers in the private sector, in tech and in other fields, maybe they're right. And maybe their influence in this administration will be more successful than what Kennedy dealt with during and Johnson dealt with during Vietnam.
But there are some people who believe that as smart as these folks are, and they're mostly men, so I'll say guys, as smart as they are, that they're not giving him the right advice, that their whispers in his ear are misguided. I talked to someone yesterday who knows many of these masters of the universe quite well. He said they really believe they know everything.
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Chapter 4: What is Rand Paul's stance on tariffs and trade policies?
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That's 1-800-958-1000 or visit TNUSA.com slash next up. Welcome back. Next up, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. About 10 years ago, Time Magazine said he was the most interesting man in politics. He's still pretty interesting, and he's also, if not unique, pretty singular. He's someone who cares less than a lot of other senators do about personality or the press or politics.
And he is focused on principle. It's one of the things about him that made him so interesting back then when he did run for president. And it makes him both interesting and important today. And Senator Rand Paul joins us now. Senator, thanks for coming on.
Yeah, thanks for having me.
I want to talk about a bunch of issues. One of the things you do that's principled is you support your party and the president of your party when you agree, but when you disagree, you speak out. And you do it not based on politics, as best I can tell, but based on your fidelity to the principles that has animated you since you got into elective office.
So I want to start with tariffs, which is an area where you've disagreed both on policy and process with the White House. What's the impact so far amongst your constituents, families and businesses in Kentucky from the tariffs that have been implemented so far?
I have yet to have one Kentucky business come to me and say, please put the tariffs on. But I can tell you a handful right off the bat, our biggest industries in Kentucky have come to me and said, please don't put tariffs on. The farmers sell about 25% of their crops overseas. They don't like tariffs. They don't like the response of other countries to tariffs.
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Chapter 5: Why does Rand Paul consider the trade deficit an irrelevant measure?
But when you do surveys of people, most people will say, if you ask them, should we make China pay a penalty if they're not trading fair? Should we make them trade fair? People will say yes. But then if you ask people, are you willing to pay $300 more for a TV? They'll say, hell no. So we haven't seen the expense yet.
And I think as people start to see the increased expenses, because tariffs are taxes that are paid for by the people who buy things. And so people often think, well, the United States is trading with China. That's actually not true at all. People in the United States, people in Kentucky go to Walmart or Target or shop on Amazon. That's who they're buying from.
And then those companies buy maybe from China, maybe from Korea, maybe from Vietnam. But each of those individuals who makes those purchases are actually satisfied with it. And that's when the tariffs come in, those are the people who will see the prices. Those are the people you're going to feel the pain. And my guess is they won't love tariffs once they start to see prices rise.
You said the other day that the debate about the tariff policy of the administration is, quote, fundamentally backwards and upside down. It's based on a fallacy. What's the fallacy?
Well, there are two big fallacies. The number one fallacy is that a trade deficit means something. So we've had a trade deficit with China since I think every year since like 1974, 75. And yet we have continued to grow. We've had enormous growth since then, and so have they. So the only time we've ever seen the trade deficit go down is when we buy less stuff during a recession.
So really, the trade deficit going up has gone up in times of prosperity, and trade deficits go down in times of economic downturn. So it's really the opposite of what people think. And the reason is this. As I was saying previously, The United States doesn't trade with China. Individuals do.
So if a million people went and bought TVs at Walmart and they all came from, let's say, Korea, and they get their TV and they've gotten it because it was good quality and lower price and they saved money, all million, every person, every one of the million people are satisfied with their trade.
But then somebody comes and draws a circle around how much goes to China or how much goes to Korea, how much comes back, and they say, oh, well, we buy all this stuff from other countries and they don't buy it from us, so we have a deficit. But the fallacy is this. Every person who bought a TV was happy or they wouldn't have done it.
This is the definition of free trade or voluntary trade is as long as it's voluntary, it's always mutually beneficial or the trade doesn't occur. The only trades that occur in a voluntary free market are done because people want to trade.
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Chapter 6: How does Rand Paul view free speech and First Amendment issues?
So I actually have a bill that I've introduced to protect free speech, and it says to government, doesn't tell Twitter anything, doesn't tell Facebook anything, because I think privately owned tech companies really have nothing to do with the First Amendment. The First Amendment has to do with government. But I don't think government should be allowed...
Can you imagine what you would think if after this interview, before you aired it, the government came to you and you had a meeting with the FBI after the interview to see what they thought was misinformation and disinformation? I mean, how repulsive that would be to you. It's the same, though, if they do it to Twitter or Facebook, and they did for years.
And so that's been probably the biggest affront to the First Amendment since... the beginning of the country. Now, this administration is also putting forward things that I think abridge the First Amendment. One is going after speech on college campuses. So they attempted to pass a bill that I've had trouble with for a long time, an anti-Semitism bill.
Well, I think anti-Semitism should be as a thought or a theory or speech should be condemned universally by people in polite society. But the First Amendment, the most formative case on the First Amendment is Brandenburg v. Ohio. And Brandenburg was an admittedly despicable person, a Nazi Ku Klux Klan guy who said terrible things about African Americans and Jews.
But the great irony is that the ACLU defended his right to say these, and the two lawyers that won the case, one was Jewish and the other was Eleanor Norton Holmes, who's a longtime African-American representative from D.C., and they defended language that was not only despicable but repulsive and offensive to them personally, but they thought that speech was so important that it needed to be defended.
With the new bill, they're saying that if you make stereotypical comments about Jews, it would be regulated and possibly banned on campus. But this is exactly why some Jewish comedians don't go to college campuses. Jerry Seinfeld famously said he won't go there. So during the hearing recently on this, I introduced a list of 479 Jewish American comedians
comedians who had all made stereotypical jokes about Jewish people. And I said, well, what are we going to do? Are you going to send the police after them, the college campus police, if any of them were to appear on campus? So no, it's just a terrible idea. But it comes out of people, rah, rah, rah, look at me, I support, and I'm against these other people. And
but without being very thoughtful about the First Amendment. And my fear is we become like Europe, where if you say anything about the Holocaust or if you say Johnny who thinks he's Susie is still Johnny, they'll put you in jail for all of that stuff. So they are doing that in Canada. They're doing that in Europe. And I don't that's not the kind of country I want to live in.
So I think really even speech that we despise has to be protected precisely because that's the nature of the First Amendment is to protect all speech.
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Chapter 7: What are Rand Paul's concerns about gain-of-function research?
So the argument from a libertarian point of view is always we want the least amount of government that we can possibly have because we want to maximize our freedom. And it's not an argument for no government, but it's always an argument for minimizing government. So whenever somebody proposes something, whether from the right or the left,
We're looking, is there a possibility, is there something we could do to allow this to be done in the private sector as opposed to having government take over it? And the second point that I make is what Milton Friedman used to always say. He said that nobody spends somebody else's money as wisely as their own. That's a profound statement because politicians never are very good.
They tend to fail at what they spend money at because they don't have the feedback loop of profit and loss. So you don't want them to be involved with most things. It's also not their money. So they spend it much more freely. And where I had to ask the young people in an audience if they would give me $1,000 for an enterprise or for a business,
they would all have to think very carefully about how many hours it took to earn that money, and they will spend it and make their choices at least much more heartfelt than a politician does. But these are all arguments for smaller government.
You can also make all these arguments for having a state government versus a federal government, or a local government versus a state government, because government, the smaller and closer to the people, the more efficient, And the better able they are to make wise decisions, mainly because they have to balance their budget.
Your county government, your city government, for the most part, they balance their budget every year. Most states have limitations. The only government without limitations is the federal government. There are some limitations, but they're enormous, $36 trillion. But because of that, the federal government makes unwise decisions at a much greater rate than any other form of government.
Where did the MAGA movement come from?
I think Donald Trump. There was a movement that I think my father was at the head of probably 2007, 2008, 2009, which became the Tea Party movement. And the Tea Party movement wasn't all Ron Paul, but Ron Paul was a part of this new wave, talking about the Constitution, talking about limited government, balanced budgets.
The Tea Party movement got even, I think, bigger than my father at some point and became this bigger movement, but it was still talking about Constitution and balanced budgets. We elected a lot of people in 2010.
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Chapter 8: How does Rand Paul reflect on his past political ambitions?
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I think of it as modern in the extreme. Steve Elmendorf and Karen Skelton both join us. They're both veteran Democrats who understand the party and watch things closely and aren't afraid to acknowledge where the party has some problems. Both of you, welcome and thank you. I try to not go overboard and say either everything's either super good or super horrible. I try to stay in an even keel.
And Steve in particular is good at keeping me from being too positive or too negative. Haley Barber says nothing in politics is ever as good or bad as it seems. But there are a lot of signs that the party is struggling right now with a leadership vacuum, something of a message vacuuming. And I believe increasingly infrastructure disparity, asymmetrical advantage for the Republicans.
So, Karen, you first. What's the state of the Democratic Party right now writ large across the board from interest groups to grassroots to the DNC to political leadership? How would you characterize where the party is now?
Thanks, Mark. I think the party's in a little weak position. I don't think it's devastating where we are right now, but I think we lack a little muscle. I think the party needs to show that it's alive, that there's breath in the body, but I wouldn't expect our party to really know what to say right now. I sort of agree with my friend Doug Sosnick that
You know, the party can wait a little bit to know where to, you know, hit hardest. And we're going to see that with tariffs, I think. So I agree with you that the infrastructure isn't there. I don't really know what's happening at the DNC. Oh, and Dorf might know a lot more than I do about that. I see a lot of action in the states, much more than I do on the federal level.
I think that, you know, in this 13 or so states where we have trifectas, governors are active. There are philanthropies and the major national philanthropies are active. And I'm seeing them putting a lot of money in. to states to push certain programs forward and messaging and communication, which is what we need. And some Democrats have lit themselves on fire and traveled around the country.
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