Digital Social Hour
How I Built a Sports Betting Algorithm | Chad Bleznick DSH #1148
Wed, 29 Jan 2025
Discover how a seasoned sports betting expert built a game-changing algorithm to beat the odds! In this episode of the Digital Social Hour with Sean Kelly, we dive into the fascinating world of sports betting, where analytics meet strategy. Learn how a decade-long journey of trial, error, and data turned into a winning formula, unlocking the secrets to long-term success in a highly competitive space. Our guest breaks down the importance of timing, bankroll management, and finding hidden edges in under-the-radar markets like college sports. From leveraging insider data to staying ahead of sharp sportsbooks, this episode is packed with valuable insights you can’t afford to miss! Plus, hear about jaw-dropping stories involving streaking bets, Gatorade prop bets, and the rise of AI in sports wagering. Watch now and subscribe for more insider secrets. Hit that subscribe button and join the conversation as we reveal the strategies behind building a winning sports betting algorithm. Don’t miss out—tune in now and level up your betting game! #oddsjam #nflpicks #prizepicks #nflplayerprops #collegebasketball CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Intro 00:30 - Betting Experience 01:25 - Edge in Sports Betting 02:20 - Break Even Percentage 03:42 - Finding Betting Edges 04:43 - Exploiting Player Props 06:26 - Sportsbook Limitations 08:35 - Futures vs Daily Betting 09:29 - UFC and PowerSlap Betting 11:19 - Small College Game Betting 14:00 - Timing Your Bets 15:06 - Data-Driven Betting 17:37 - Martingale Betting Strategy 18:41 - Edge in Slot Machines 20:32 - Edge in Blackjack 24:47 - Best PLO Player 28:05 - Current NBA State 29:30 - NCAA NIL Impact 34:05 - Are Sports Rigged? 38:10 - Mahomes vs Brady Comparison 40:02 - Greatest Running Back Debate 41:55 - Belichick vs Reid Analysis 45:14 - Phil Jackson vs Gregg Popovich 48:16 - Draymond Green Discussion 50:09 - Father Time in Sports 50:11 - LaMelo Ball Discussion 50:48 - Jokic's Legacy as Center 54:18 - Steph Curry Insights 55:51 - WNBA Player Challenge 57:33 - Finding Cblez APPLY TO BE ON THE PODCAST: https://www.digitalsocialhour.com/application BUSINESS INQUIRIES/SPONSORS: [email protected] GUEST: Chad Bleznick https://www.instagram.com/cblez/ SPONSORS: Specialized Recruiting Group: https://www.srgpros.com/ LISTEN ON: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/digital-social-hour/id1676846015 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5Jn7LXarRlI8Hc0GtTn759 Sean Kelly Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/seanmikekelly/
Chapter 1: What is the importance of timing in sports betting?
Chapter 2: How do you find betting edges in sports?
Well, that's smart, because a lot of people start doing their content right when they start betting.
Yeah, I mean, I don't have anything against anybody, but Gary Vee's an inspiration content-wise, and he says he likes to study markets and then talk about them later. So I kind of took that approach.
Do you feel like players can actually get an edge in sports betting?
97%.
It's probably higher, dude. Holy crap.
So that's almost everyone betting.
The thing is, most people have problems with like their bankroll. So they'll just bet everything on one game because they think it's a lock. But in reality, the best sports bettors, they're just trying to win like 57% of the time, which means you're going to lose 43% of the time. You're going to have a lot of losses in there. So people look at my videos and they're like, oh, you lose a lot.
But that's part of the game because you have to lose a lot just like anything in life. You have to lose a lot first before you're going to start winning.
right yeah like you said you only need 57 out of the 100 so you're gonna lose 43 and that's good right that'd be great that's is that the break-even point 57 no it's i i think it's like 52. oh 52 is okay like billy walters he's the best of all time i'm pretty sure he wanted like a 60 clip yeah and he's making tens of millions holy crap yeah billy walters what what sports does he bet on mainly
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Chapter 4: How does bankroll management affect betting success?
You're a 70% favorite and still lose. How is that possible? Because there's still a luck element involved. You're not going to just win every time when you're a 70% favorite. You're going to win seven out of 10. And that's the same thing with sports betting. If you consistently beat the lines by a couple points, You're not going to win every game, but you're going to win most of the games.
Absolutely. And that's how you win long term.
Like you said, 52% is all you need. Exactly. Do you know what your win percentage was last year?
Last year, I won $250,000 betting $3,000 a game. So I won like 83 units. Wow. I probably bet like $4 or $5 million in Handel to win like, I honestly don't know the exact numbers. I know I won $250,000. But you've got to bet a lot of money to win a small amount of money. It's a lot different, like the handle means how much you actually bet. And I bet probably 20,000 every day.
So that's like five, six million in a year, 365 times 20. Sometimes I'll bet less, sometimes I'll bet more. But you've got to bet a lot of money and get volume in because it's such a small, tight margin. So you want to just keep betting with the edge. Long term, you'll win. Nice.
Yeah, 250 is solid money, man. Well done. For sports betting, that's the most I've heard. Because a lot of people say they're numbers, but I don't believe them.
You know what I mean? People are like, oh, I win $4 million. I win $10 million.
It's like, yeah, nobody believes you. But 250 is actually realistic.
Yeah, I mean, I won $250,000 last year. This year I'm trying to win $400,000 or $500,000. I also make money in other areas of my life, so I'm not pressing for money. I'm trying to figure out the process, what makes the most money in the end. And if I could win an extra $400,000 or $500,000 every year betting sports, I'm happy with that.
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Chapter 5: Are there hidden risks in betting on player props?
Chapter 6: What impact does NIL have on college sports betting?
Yeah. And the win, too... They don't really take big action.
The win? That's like the best casino in Vegas.
I mean, it's the best to stay, but to gamble. The thing is, if you're a winner in Vegas, they don't like that. They have a profile on every single person. So they look, and they're like, oh, this guy has an edge here. This guy's winning. And it's not just about winning. A lot of the times, it's about beating the market. So if you consistently beat the market, they're going to see that.
And that's an indication that you're a long-term winner. And they're going to cut you off, or they're going to severely limit you.
Damn. It's insane. So what's the max bet? If you haven't gone to a casino and made a sports bet before, will they cap your first bet?
Probably not. I mean, Circa, that's my favorite sports book. They take the biggest bets, especially if you go over the counter. The apps, a lot of these Vegas casino have apps now. They're automatically going to limit you until they see a profile of a player. But yeah, I mean, most of these books, they act like they're so big and they take all these bets.
People think that they take these big bets. They really don't. And especially if you're a winner, they'll take even less. It's crazy.
That's nuts. Are you betting on daily games? Do you bet anything in the future? Do you do any crazy stuff like parlays or anything?
I don't really do parlays. I'll do futures a little bit. Like last year, I had the Chiefs win the Super Bowl preseason. Wow.
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