After the Trump-Zelenskyy blow-up on Friday, European leaders held emergency talks in London to put together a roadmap to peace. Then, on Tuesday, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced a proposal called ReArm Europe. The roughly $840 billion plan would quickly build up defense budgets in Europe. Meanwhile, the U.S. seems to continue to align itself with Russia. President Trump is upending the U.S.-led order that has dominated global politics for the better part of a century. What does that mean for Ukraine – and for America? For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Email us at [email protected] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Chapter 1: How is Vladimir Putin influencing global politics?
Vladimir Putin's tenure as president of Russia is now measured in decades, not just years. That means he can play the long game.
He waits. He's very carefully waiting for things to break down.
That's Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School, also the great-granddaughter of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. And sure enough, Putin got exactly the sort of breakdown he was waiting for on Friday.
Your country is in big trouble. I know.
Chapter 2: What happened during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting?
At that Oval Office meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
If you didn't have our military equipment, this war would have been over in two weeks.
In three days.
I heard it from Putin. In three days. Maybe less. In two weeks. Of course, yes. It's going to be a very hard thing to do business like this.
Cromden didn't even have to do anything this time around. And the West is being suddenly ripped apart. And Zelensky, the Kremlin obviously doesn't like and thinks an enemy, is being berated by the United States, by Donald Trump, who the Kremlin does like.
Zelensky was at the White House to sign over mineral rights to the U.S., a deal that Ukraine hoped would help it get security guarantees in a future peace deal with Russia. That blowup put the signing on hold. And on Monday, the White House said it was pausing U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
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Chapter 3: Why did Trump criticize the European Union?
Speaking on background, a White House official said, quote, the president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. All this looks like a major step back from a U.S. ally. And it's not the only one. At another White House meeting last week, Trump said this about the EU.
The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That's the purpose of it. And they've done a good job of it, but now I'm president.
He's threatening tariffs on EU imports. And Trump has already put 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. Those snapped into place early Tuesday. Trump argues these moves are about aligning foreign policy with American interests. But tension in relationships between the U.S. and allies also appears to be in Russia's interests. The Kremlin is ecstatic, says Khrushcheva.
It does seem that it's a great dream of any KGB operative to see the West unraveling this way without even having to lift a finger in this particular moment.
Consider this. Trump is upending the U.S.-led order that has dominated global politics for the better part of a century. What does that mean for Ukraine and for America? From NPR, I'm Ari Shapiro.
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It's Consider This from NPR. After the Trump-Zelensky blow-up on Friday, European leaders held emergency talks in London to put together a roadmap to peace. Here's British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Our starting point must be to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position now so that they can negotiate from a position of strength. And we are doubling down in our support.
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Chapter 4: How is Europe responding to increased threats?
And on Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a proposal called Rearm Europe.
I do not need to describe the grave nature of the threats that we face.
The roughly $840 billion plan would quickly build up defense budgets in Europe.
With this equipment, member states can massively step up their support to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the U.S. seems to continue to align itself with Russia. To discuss where things go and what this means for U.S. alliances, I spoke with Richard Haass, hours before the U.S. paused military aid to Ukraine. He's the president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and has served in diplomatic roles in Republican presidential administrations.
You know, President Trump's been saying for almost a decade since his first run for office that the rest of the world should take more responsibility for global security. Whatever you may think of his tactics, is he succeeding at least at getting American allies to do more?
He might be, but at enormous cost. It's one thing to say the rest of the world needs to do more and let's plan, say, a 10-year transition. which is orderly where we dial up the rest of the world and say dial down the United States so our foes are not encouraged and so our allies are not unnerved. But this is not that. This is much more of a switch than a dial.
And the danger is that you have opportunities where adversaries see the reason to attack. You see some of our friends saying either we have to appease a powerful neighbor or maybe we need nuclear weapons of our own. So there's a chance that some good will come of this. I don't deny that the Europeans might actually do more and they should do more with their conventional military forces.
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Chapter 5: What are the implications of U.S. foreign policy shifts?
But this is highly disruptive and comes at great risk.
Do you think the Europeans can figure out how to end this war without U.S. leadership?
Extraordinarily difficult. Europeans can only do so much. They don't have the defense industries. They don't have the large inventories to transfer. But Ukraine can hold on. The problem is without the United States supporting Ukraine, it's quite probable that Vladimir Putin will not have the incentive to compromise, to accept a ceasefire, except on terms that are quite draconian.
Oh, so you're saying Russia could make real advances in Ukraine if the US pulls back, and that would disincentivize any kind of peace talks?
Chapter 6: Can Europe manage security without U.S. leadership?
Right, and that's what's missing. I don't understand about the president's approach. He says he wants to be a peacemaker here. Well, the best way to get a peace is to persuade Vladimir Putin that the United States and the West will stand by Ukraine, so continued war by Russia will not lead Mr. Putin to anything that resembles success. We've done just the opposite.
So Vladimir Putin's sitting in the Kremlin going, why should I compromise?
What about the argument that Trump is effectively saying the quiet part out loud, that Ukraine cannot win this war even with U.S. support, so it's time to just bring the conflict to an end?
If by win this war, you mean recover all of its territory going back to 1991, you're right. And that was actually a good strategic insight of this administration that militarily recovering all Ukraine had lost in 2014 and 2022 was not realistic. And the Biden administration refused to do that. But the other way to define success is you have a ceasefire.
Ukraine keeps what it has now, which is 80% of its territory. The war stops. And then you have the ability over years or decades to negotiate. And maybe you come up with a new relationship between Ukraine and, say, a post-Vladimir Putin Russia. So again, I think there's all sorts of possibilities. But success should not be defined either as Ukraine recovering all of its territory militarily.
That's a non-starter. Or giving Vladimir Putin everything he wants.
I'd like to get your take on what the big picture set of U.S. alliances right now looks like. Because since the end of World War II, the globe has been more or less defined by a certain set of expectations. And those alliances seem very shaky right now. Trump last week said at his cabinet meeting that the European Union, quote, was formed in order to screw the United States.
To put it bluntly, is the post-war order done?
To put it bluntly, the post-war order is on life support. It's a tragedy. I've never seen this before in history. I'm used to empires or orders crumbling. I'm used to them being overwhelmed. I've never seen the side, the country that created it and maintained it dismantling it. And that is exactly what we are doing.
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