3 Takeaways
Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (#227)
Tue, 10 Dec 2024
China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are all determined to subvert America. Nobody knows more about this than former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who has worked for three presidents and five secretaries of state. Hear what this foreign policy expert says America must do to remain dominant, how AI will impact the world order, and much more.
Chapter 1: What led to the rise of superpower conflict?
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, many have believed that superpower conflict was over and that democracy had won. But that belief has been upended with the rise of China, the Russia Ukraine war and increasing ties between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
China, after decades of rapid growth, has become the second largest economy in the world after the United States, with an economy about the size of the entire European Union. And China, Iran, and North Korea have each been supporting Russia in its war in Ukraine. China is supplying vital components for Russia's war effort. Iran is producing drones and ballistic missiles.
Chapter 2: How is China impacting global economics?
And North Korea is providing troops. These four countries, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, all share an antipathy to the United States and to democracy. How important is this growing cooperation between these four countries and what are its implications? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.
On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Wendy Sherman. She's an American diplomat who served as the United States Deputy Secretary of State from 2021 to 2023.
Before that, she served as Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs. In that role, she was the lead negotiator for the Iran nuclear deal. She led the US team during multiple negotiating rounds between Iran and other world powers. Before that, she was the North Korea coordinator. Ambassador Sherman has worked for three presidents and five secretaries of state.
Chapter 3: What is the significance of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea alliance?
I'm looking forward to finding out how she sees the world today, including the growing cooperation among China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, as well as other issues such as the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the world order and the growing competition in space. Welcome, Wendy, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today. Good to be with you, Lynn.
Thanks for the conversation. Thank you. And thank you for your service in government. Let's start by talking about individual countries. How do you see China?
Well, China, as the administration has said, is really the pacing challenge for all of us. It is the only country with the wherewithal to compete effectively with the United States. It is building its military, including its nuclear arsenal. Xi Jinping has been very clear about what he wants to achieve, which is to create a new world order in the mold of China. And so this is quite critical.
It is the economy changing. that really can begin to match ours. That said, we need to build a floor under our relationship with China and the Biden-Harris administration has been able to do that in spite of some really tough challenges. Can you elaborate on that floor? I would say the floor is plywood. It's not mahogany or oak yet.
We were about to head off to China, actually, Secretary Blinken, and although it was unusual, I was going to go with him, on a visit to the PRC when this mysterious balloon crossed the United States. And that spy balloon created a situation where, in fact, the secretary had to postpone his visit. Ultimately, that visit happened. Various other cabinet secretaries also went.
We reestablished a military-to-military dialogue, which is absolutely critical to make sure that we have a channel so that there won't be mistakes or miscalculations, that we're able to talk with each other about military issues. We've worked hard together on fentanyl, because most of the precursor chemicals come from China, are assembled in Mexico, and come across the United States.
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Chapter 4: How does Wendy Sherman view the current situation in Russia?
We've seen a decline in the number of fentanyl deaths here in the United States, which is partly because of that work. And we've continued to have a diplomatic channel, which is absolutely critical as we try to make sure that our great power and this developing power don't come to blows. How do you see Russia? Oh, goodness. Putin is quite a leader.
He is without a doubt a very serious authoritarian leader. He has control of all of the media in his country. His citizens have come on board with his belief that Ukraine should be part of the Russian Federation. He sees this in deep historical terms. And clearly, he is willing to lose many, many lives of Russian citizens.
And only recently, because of Ukraine's ability to hid inside Russia, are the Russian people themselves coming to understand what's really going on, as opposed to the propaganda. Putin has allowed his economy to suffer as a result of the sanctions, but nonetheless, He is committed to what I believe in his own mind is an ideological and historical battle.
His new relationship with North Korea, as well as a deepening relationship with Iran, is cause for great concern, of course, because North Korea has sent troops. We've now seen it appears that Yemeni or Houthi soldiers have come as well. So we have quite a battle going on. How do you see Iran? Iran is a very complicated country.
We tend to think of Iran as completely one because it has a supreme leader, but it too has politics. The new Iranian president had hoped to create a better relationship with the West, get rid of some of the sanctions. help improve the economy because the vast majority of Iranians are under the age of 35 and need to have a future that they can look forward to.
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Chapter 5: What challenges does Iran pose to international relations?
But the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Quds Force, which through the budget finance Hezbollah, Hamas, help the Houthis create the drones that Russia has used in Ukraine, don't want that kind of reconciliation because they own A lot of the black market parts of the economy, they would lose that advantage. They would lose their power within Iran. Fight hard against that era for reform.
We just saw today when we are taping this that Larajani, who is a counselor to the Supreme Leader, has called for recreating a negotiation with the West and with the United States.
And indeed, at the end of November, the E3, Great Britain, France and Germany are going to be meeting with the deputy foreign minister, Mati Takravanchi, who is one of my counterparts in the Iran negotiation, to talk about a way forward.
And how do you see North Korea?
Chapter 6: How is North Korea's military capability affecting global security?
North Korea in many ways is the most difficult player here in that Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, has built an enormous nuclear arsenal and clearly has growing missile capability to project those missiles all the way to the United States. It seems it's difficult to deter him from whatever he plans to do in the future. He has sent
North Korean soldiers to Russia to help in the war in Ukraine. And some people expect that he'll send as many as 100,000 North Koreans. In return, I'm sure he's getting some hard, cold cash that he needs, as well as assistance with missile and nuclear technology. So this is very concerning. It's meant that South Korea, which has ammunition the Ukrainians need,
is indeed getting more engaged in the conflict. And South Korea and Japan have reconciled to a large degree, understanding that together they have to confront a growing China and Kim Jong-un, who has literally broken down any relationship between North and South Korea.
And how do you see this increase in cooperation and alliance among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea? How important is it?
Well, I think we all have to be careful about not overselling this. Some people call it the axis of chaos. Some people call it an alliance of adversaries. I'm not sure how deep it really goes, how intertwined it is. China probably is pretty irritated
with North Korea's relationship with Russia and may create a place for disruption of that relationship and perhaps a way for the United States to talk with China about deterring North Korea from taking adverse actions. So this is a little bit more complicated. Each of these countries has its own interests.
Where those interests align, they will undoubtedly already are working together, but their interests don't always align. And so we have to be careful about over expecting that all four of these countries will work in harmony with each other. So we need to take it case by case.
understand each instance, look for where these countries have powerful stakes in other parts of the world, and make sure that we're doing really tough analysis before we come to too many conclusions.
And what do you think that the United States and its democratic allies need to do?
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Chapter 7: What actions should the U.S. take to maintain its global dominance?
And even though individual Americans don't yet feel all of it in their pocketbooks, in their lived lives day by day, as we've just seen in our last election, nonetheless, we have the world's strongest economy right now. We also are planning for the future.
We know the future is going to be one of artificial intelligence, quantum biotech, and the investments that President Biden, along with bipartisan work by the Congress, which surprises people, have made investments that are going to be critical to our future. We need to continue to make such investments.
We have to invest in our military, in our recruitment, in the weapons of the future, which will be very different from the conventional weapons of the past. We have to reform how we fight wars because it's going to be quite different. We've already seen the impact of drones in Russia's illegal and horrifying invasion of a sovereign country. We need to invest in our alliances and partnerships.
I know that the president-elect has said that he's going to challenge NATO and has even said he might leave NATO. He can't do that without an act of Congress because of legislation that's been passed. My guess is he will challenge European countries to spend more on their own defense. It's important. They've already done so.
NATO, in my view, remains a critical security alliance for Europe and for everyone's future. But Europeans are looking at what they themselves need to do to strengthen their own capacity, which will then strengthen the relationship with the United States. We have to look to alliances and relationships in the rest of the world. I think it's very important that President Biden held an African summit.
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Chapter 8: How is AI shaping the future of international relations?
a Pacific Islands summit, an ASEAN summit that he has strengthened what's called the Asian Quad, which is India, Japan, the United States and Australia. Worked with the UK on AUKUS, a new security relationship with Australia to help them build nuclear powered submarines to increase deterrence in the Pacific. So I think there are a lot of things that we've done.
And I certainly hope the president-elect understands how important they are to the security of the United States.
Is there a way to reduce the incentives for China to deepen its ties with Russia and Iran?
I think China will do what it perceives is in its interest. What the United States needs to do is make sure that we have dialogue with China, that we compete and insist on a level playing field, that we see where we can cooperate and that we ensure that we don't fall into conflict and hope China keeps those channels open so they don't as well.
We haven't talked yet about Xi Jinping's declaration that he will unify Taiwan with mainland China. He has said he wants to do that peacefully, but if not, he'll do whatever it takes to make that happen. That, of course, is extraordinarily of great concern to us. because we believe that Taiwan has a right to its current trajectory while maintaining a strong relationship with the mainland.
We have a one-China policy, as you know. And I think everyone now knows that some of the most sophisticated chips in the world are produced in Taiwan. And so we all need to make sure that those chips are are available to all countries, not just to mainland China.
There are certainly challenges over Taiwan. Is there anything else the United States can do to protect Taiwan, to deter China?
The Taiwan Relations Act, which was passed in bipartisan fashion by Congress, requires us to support Taiwan in ways that it's able to defend itself. So Taiwan has purchased sophisticated technology. They're trying to build their own reserve force, their own civil defense, their own asymmetric capabilities with our support and help. And I think it's critical that we continue to do just that.
Could Taiwan survive if there were a naval blockade of Taiwan by China?
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