Simon Willison

And the example I want to use here is the movie Everything Everywhere All at Once, which did not use AI stuff at all, but the VFX team on that were five people. So I believe some of them were just like following YouTube tutorials, like incredibly talented five, but they pulled off a movie which it won like most of the Oscars that year. You know, that movie is so creative.

And the example I want to use here is the movie Everything Everywhere All at Once, which did not use AI stuff at all, but the VFX team on that were five people. So I believe some of them were just like following YouTube tutorials, like incredibly talented five, but they pulled off a movie which it won like most of the Oscars that year. You know, that movie is so creative.

It was done on a shoestring budget. The VFX were just five people. Imagine what a team like that could do with the... versions of movie and image generation tools that we'll have in six years' time. I think we're going to see unbelievably wonderful TV and movies made by much smaller teams, much lower budgets, incredible creativity, and that I'm really excited about.

It was done on a shoestring budget. The VFX were just five people. Imagine what a team like that could do with the... versions of movie and image generation tools that we'll have in six years' time. I think we're going to see unbelievably wonderful TV and movies made by much smaller teams, much lower budgets, incredible creativity, and that I'm really excited about.

I think teams who have a very strong creative vision will have the tools that will let them achieve that vision without spending much money, which matters a lot right now because the entire film industry appears to be still completely collapsing. Netflix destroyed their business model, they've not figured out the new thing, everyone in Hollywood is out of work. It's all diabolical at the moment.

I think teams who have a very strong creative vision will have the tools that will let them achieve that vision without spending much money, which matters a lot right now because the entire film industry appears to be still completely collapsing. Netflix destroyed their business model, they've not figured out the new thing, everyone in Hollywood is out of work. It's all diabolical at the moment.

But maybe the dot-com crash back in the 2000s led to a whole bunch of great companies that sort of rose out of the ashes. I'd love to see that happening in the entertainment industry. I'd love to see a new wave of incredibly high-quality, independent film and cinema enabled by a new wave of tools. And I think the tools we have today are not those tools at all.

But maybe the dot-com crash back in the 2000s led to a whole bunch of great companies that sort of rose out of the ashes. I'd love to see that happening in the entertainment industry. I'd love to see a new wave of incredibly high-quality, independent film and cinema enabled by a new wave of tools. And I think the tools we have today are not those tools at all.

But I feel like six years is long enough for us to figure out the tools that actually do let that happen.

But I feel like six years is long enough for us to figure out the tools that actually do let that happen.

And I'll do the prediction. The prediction is the film that a film will win an Oscar in that year. And that film will have used generative AI tools as part of the production process. And it won't even be a big deal at all. It'll almost be expected. Like nobody will be surprised that a film where one of the tools that it used were based on generative AI was, was an Oscar winner.

And I'll do the prediction. The prediction is the film that a film will win an Oscar in that year. And that film will have used generative AI tools as part of the production process. And it won't even be a big deal at all. It'll almost be expected. Like nobody will be surprised that a film where one of the tools that it used were based on generative AI was, was an Oscar winner.

Okay, I'm going to go straight up Butlerian jihad, right? So all of the dream of these big AI labs, the genuine dream really is AGI. They all talk about it. They all seem to be true believers. I absolutely cannot imagine a world in which

Okay, I'm going to go straight up Butlerian jihad, right? So all of the dream of these big AI labs, the genuine dream really is AGI. They all talk about it. They all seem to be true believers. I absolutely cannot imagine a world in which

basically all forms of like knowledge work and large amounts of manual work and stuff as well are replaced by automations where the economy functions and people are happy. That just doesn't, I don't see the path to it. Like Sam Altman talks about UBI. This country can't even do universal healthcare. The idea of pulling off UBI in the next six years is a terrible joke.

basically all forms of like knowledge work and large amounts of manual work and stuff as well are replaced by automations where the economy functions and people are happy. That just doesn't, I don't see the path to it. Like Sam Altman talks about UBI. This country can't even do universal healthcare. The idea of pulling off UBI in the next six years is a terrible joke.

So if we assume that these people managed to build these artificial superintelligence that can do anything that a human worker could do, that seems horrific to me. And I think that's full-blown butlerian jihad, like set all of the computers on fire and go back to working without them.

So if we assume that these people managed to build these artificial superintelligence that can do anything that a human worker could do, that seems horrific to me. And I think that's full-blown butlerian jihad, like set all of the computers on fire and go back to working without them.

These are parallel universes. I don't think anyone's making, nobody's making amazing art when nobody's got a job anymore. There was an amazing, there was a post on Blue Sky the other day where somebody said, what trillion dollar problem is AI trying to solve? It's wages. They're trying to use it to solve having to pay people wages. That's the dystopia for me.

These are parallel universes. I don't think anyone's making, nobody's making amazing art when nobody's got a job anymore. There was an amazing, there was a post on Blue Sky the other day where somebody said, what trillion dollar problem is AI trying to solve? It's wages. They're trying to use it to solve having to pay people wages. That's the dystopia for me.