Scott Lincecum

So this is tariffs 101, right? Tariffs, when you apply them to an input, fertilizer is an input. It's going to harm your downstream producers. Farmers are downstream producers. And tariffs always lead to cronyism and lobbying because everybody wants an exception or exemption or they want their own tariffs.

Well, for sure. Well, the last time Trump implemented a bunch of tariffs, there was an exemption process through both Commerce Department and USTR.

Well, for sure. Well, the last time Trump implemented a bunch of tariffs, there was an exemption process through both Commerce Department and USTR.

Well, for sure. Well, the last time Trump implemented a bunch of tariffs, there was an exemption process through both Commerce Department and USTR.

And then a bunch of enterprising economists went back and looked and they found that you actually had a much better likelihood of getting your exemption if you donated to Republican candidates and hired a lobbyist who had connections to the Trump administration. So, you know, this is DC 101, right, man?

And then a bunch of enterprising economists went back and looked and they found that you actually had a much better likelihood of getting your exemption if you donated to Republican candidates and hired a lobbyist who had connections to the Trump administration. So, you know, this is DC 101, right, man?

And then a bunch of enterprising economists went back and looked and they found that you actually had a much better likelihood of getting your exemption if you donated to Republican candidates and hired a lobbyist who had connections to the Trump administration. So, you know, this is DC 101, right, man?

That's also trade 101. Retaliation is almost inevitable because politicians in these other places can't look weak to their own domestic constituents. You can't just look like a patsy to Donald Trump. You understand that import tariffs are going to be costly because you're not a mercantilist like Donald Trump. You actually understand this is going to be painful.

That's also trade 101. Retaliation is almost inevitable because politicians in these other places can't look weak to their own domestic constituents. You can't just look like a patsy to Donald Trump. You understand that import tariffs are going to be costly because you're not a mercantilist like Donald Trump. You actually understand this is going to be painful.

That's also trade 101. Retaliation is almost inevitable because politicians in these other places can't look weak to their own domestic constituents. You can't just look like a patsy to Donald Trump. You understand that import tariffs are going to be costly because you're not a mercantilist like Donald Trump. You actually understand this is going to be painful.

But you have to do it because you need to get reelected or there's national solidarity, all that kind of stuff. And you can actually – apparently, the Canadians are really pissed right now.

But you have to do it because you need to get reelected or there's national solidarity, all that kind of stuff. And you can actually – apparently, the Canadians are really pissed right now.

But you have to do it because you need to get reelected or there's national solidarity, all that kind of stuff. And you can actually – apparently, the Canadians are really pissed right now.

And Canadians are like the nicest people ever. So for them to get upset, you've done something really wrong. So going back to retaliation. So there's a political incentive to retaliate. There's also a strategic incentive. So if you don't retaliate, you're basically encouraging bad behavior by the initial actor. This is all game theory stuff, right? You see a lot of retaliation in this space. But –

And Canadians are like the nicest people ever. So for them to get upset, you've done something really wrong. So going back to retaliation. So there's a political incentive to retaliate. There's also a strategic incentive. So if you don't retaliate, you're basically encouraging bad behavior by the initial actor. This is all game theory stuff, right? You see a lot of retaliation in this space. But –

And Canadians are like the nicest people ever. So for them to get upset, you've done something really wrong. So going back to retaliation. So there's a political incentive to retaliate. There's also a strategic incentive. So if you don't retaliate, you're basically encouraging bad behavior by the initial actor. This is all game theory stuff, right? You see a lot of retaliation in this space. But –

How do you retaliate? Well, you don't want to just do blanket tariffs like Donald Trump did. You want to hit politically influential groups. So you're going to go after pork producers. Pork guys carry a lot of weight. So you're going to go after pork imports. You're going to go after steel producers. imports. They famously went after bourbon because of Mitch McConnell and Kentucky bourbon.

How do you retaliate? Well, you don't want to just do blanket tariffs like Donald Trump did. You want to hit politically influential groups. So you're going to go after pork producers. Pork guys carry a lot of weight. So you're going to go after pork imports. You're going to go after steel producers. imports. They famously went after bourbon because of Mitch McConnell and Kentucky bourbon.

How do you retaliate? Well, you don't want to just do blanket tariffs like Donald Trump did. You want to hit politically influential groups. So you're going to go after pork producers. Pork guys carry a lot of weight. So you're going to go after pork imports. You're going to go after steel producers. imports. They famously went after bourbon because of Mitch McConnell and Kentucky bourbon.

So this is very standard practice. You try to do these targeted hits. Well, that's a shame.