Peter Keating
Appearances
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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I just want to say the great thing about that, about getting extra possessions, is there's a lot of work involved. And you can rebuild a team or build a team up, make it better. really quickly by focusing on players who are relentless at crashing the boards and working to get turnovers.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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So you see a lot of what we call giant killers emerge by focusing on these effort-based tactics that really help you build that extra possessions and survive not being as good a shooting team as your opponent. I just want to say, you know, everybody has their complaints about who should have gotten number ones and who should have been seated higher.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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Nobody remembers that if you're going to see somebody high, you kind of need to see somebody lower or say something that should have been seated lower. Well, here you go. I love North Carolina State's story from last season, but there's no way they should be a two seed.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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You can name a half a dozen teams off the top of your head probably that are better, including the number three seed here, LSU, who I think has – I mean, there's nobody tougher. And they've got a great – maybe the great best three-player combination in the country. They're obviously going to be a real threat to –
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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It pains me to say Michigan State like Jordan did because, you know, in the first round they faced Harvard and Harmony Turner is one of my favorite players in the whole country. And they were a lot of fun to watch. And they finally, after narrow losses, narrow misses in the Ivies the last couple of years, finally made the tournament.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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So I was all set to go somewhere and pronounce that Harvard was going to be a great giant killer. But they're going to run into Michigan State, and I like that pick a lot. He's being modest, by the way. That's his alma mater.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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Wait, wait. Are you saying that to give us the chance to bring up the greatest giant killing story of all time, of all history?
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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Because when people say Virginia was the first number one to lose, they just mean in the men's game. Back in the 90s, number one Stanford lost in the women's tournament to number 16 Harvard. First 16 win ever. in a 64 field tournament. You really stepped in it.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
Before we get to the upsets, I just want to point out, when South Carolina absolutely got smoked by UConn in February, and I saw that game and I was like, it was the first time I ever saw a Don Cieli team look a step slow or out of it. And that was kind of alarming. And I was like, it's either going to go one of two ways, right? Either they are a step slow and it's just not their year, or...
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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I feel sorry for who they're gonna play next. Okay, since then, they beat Arkansas, they crushed Vanderbilt, one of my personal favorite giant killing possibilities, twice. They torched Ole Miss, and then they beat, Number 15, Kentucky by 14 points. Number 10, Oklahoma by 23 points. And then Texas by 22. So they're a truck rolling downhill.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
And so we can pick some upset possibilities, but, you know,
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
There's a great second round. Yeah. Great second round possibility. I want to throw out one crazy first round thing, though. Every now and then we see a kind of a single player have a big impact. So there's a player named Diamond Johnson, who is one of the very top players in steals in the whole country. And by herself, basically, she's elevated. They're ball hawking and they're thievery.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
They just seize all these possessions from their opponents. They're a crazy pick, but if you watch them, you'll watch them irritate the heck out of a better team. And they're an off-the-wall pick, basically because of her. Their turnover rate is very high.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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Peter, you want to do the 30-second explainer? 25 seconds. We take every team's results, and we adjust them by the strength of their opponents and their margins of victory. We create a power ratings, and then we adjust that by the characteristics that help teams pull upsets in past tournaments.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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Well, I mentioned Norfolk State with their one player driving an incredible turnover rate. This is another off-the-wall deep dog, but out in Montana, at Montana State, there's a freshman point guard named Taylee Cherick who...
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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is I think if she's not leading the country in steel percentage, it's only because she hasn't been playing enough minutes because she had to grow into the role because she's a freshman. That's that's a really interesting, crazy giant. The analytics love Montana State. I don't know if that's a famous enough team to pick, but that's that's kind of a cool off the wall pick in this region.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
Yeah, look, last year, what were the criticisms of UConn? They were injured and they didn't have their best lineup on the court at all the time. And what was their strength of schedule? This year you can't hold either one of those things against them. They finally have Beckers and Putt on the court at the same time.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
And by some measures, Sarah Strong has been the most efficient player in the entire country. And they've played a tougher schedule. They're right up there in our spreadsheets with South Carolina.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
Finally, they're supposed to finally get Ayoka Lee back for the tournament, right? I mean, she was the inside presence to their fantastic fleet of guards that surrounded her. And they were a top 10 team until she got hurt. And I think they, you know, they did not end the year looking good. But when they have everybody playing, they're really good.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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I actually did not know that. That's fantastic. Yes. That was quite a tournament history.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
I mean, well, now I'm a Sarah Strong fan, too. So now we're going to be even harder. Go go harder on you.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
Right on time. A win is the most basic stat of all, so it kind of is. We're going to claim wins.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
How's it going?
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
Yeah, because what you're left with when you don't have good data is a lot of hot takes and personality based coverage. And it's great to get to know the athletes and the coaches as people. It's important, but it's also very easy when you don't have any numbers or any analytics or any evidence for what you're saying, basically.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
to just offer up a bunch of opinions which might be true or might not be true. Every time around this time every year, we hear simultaneously from people who say, wow, this team is so young and brash and inexperienced, they don't know enough to be afraid. And then at the same time, people on the same TV set are saying, wow, this team has senior leadership. It's so important to have experience.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Good Follow - Dearica Hamby joins the Show, Rose BC Wins Unrivaled + A Bracket Breakdown w/ The Underdogs & More
And you're like, well, which one is true? And how do we know? And there's a million things like that. And there's no good excuse anymore, given the audience, given the interest, given the talent that's flowing into the game to have women's sports analytics lagging as far as they currently do behind their male counterparts.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
The Big Suey: First Fake
I want to say, I think there's something a little deeper going on that we should pay some respect to, which is that modern analytics have moved baseball away from base stealing, have moved football away from rushing, have moved basketball away from the inside game. A lot of people grew up where sports meant a lot more violence and physical contact and beat the hell out of the other guy.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
The Big Suey: First Fake
And over time, more information discovered other ways to defeat your opponents. There are people who just don't like that. People who don't like how thinking about these things and the kind of bruising competitions they're used to enjoying go together. But it's all just information. It all just makes it smarter. It all just makes it more fun. Oh, and you're right.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
The Big Suey: First Fake
But I also, there's something a little more general to keep in mind that a way through this is to embrace the crazy, embrace the randomness. People want to ascribe events to reasons and character and moral turpitude. Sometimes shit just happens. I mean, yeah, we've been studying college basketball for 20 years.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
The Big Suey: First Fake
The closest we've been able to get in explaining the variance and what happens in order is it's not anywhere close to 100%. So you can embrace the fact that crazy stuff happens, appreciate it, doesn't have to be sustainable. And it still should be really enjoyable when unexpected things happen, even if it's a little more predictable.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
The Big Suey: First Fake
Well, the three point revolution. I mean, if that's that's kind of the paragon example of of how things have changed. Sure. But you got to remember, sports can also legislate against too much change. I mean, baseball just passed rules against the shift and instituted a, you know, for 150 years, baseball intellectuals were writing that the great timeless thing about baseball was there's no clock.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
The Big Suey: First Fake
Well, they changed it and it kind of made things better, right? So, you know, if we can't all get together and decide if this is too much, you know, we don't have robot umpires yet. If we don't want robot umpires, nobody's going to force us to have robot umpires. We can all get together and decide this is too much change. Let's keep things a little more fun if we want to. Sports have done that too.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
The Big Suey: First Fake
I would love to see the unintended consequences. You know, when's the last time a baseball team actually succeeded when they tried to recruit a free agent because they said, oh, look... I'm going to ignore this video trickery. I just want everybody to know my hat's still pointing up. You know, often that doesn't work out, which just adds to the fun.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
The Big Suey: First Fake
Listen, I think if it's within certain bounds, you know, there are rules about how far the fences can be in baseball. You can't just do whatever you want. There's certain minimums and maximums. That could be really interesting.
The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
The Big Suey: First Fake
And unless you really like bicycling and no, no Florida Panthers, because we decided because we are we do a lot of analytics work. We decided Connor McDavid wasn't overrated.