Neil Freiman
Appearances
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The US and Russia will be holding talks in Saudi Arabia this week about ending the war in Ukraine. Note that Ukraine and European leaders were conspicuously left off the invite list. Then on Friday, Vice President J.D. Vance lambasted European establishment politicians to their faces at a security conference in Munich, leaving no doubt...
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that even if Europe needs America, America will no longer be bothered with Europe. And that means a new era of rearmament is dawning on the continent. Upgrading defense and protecting Ukraine could cost Europe's major powers an additional $3.1 trillion over a decade,
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But as Poland's prime minister said yesterday, if Europe fails to spend on defense now, they'll be forced to spend 10 times more if they don't prevent a wider war. Toby, the security architecture that had existed in Europe for decades just got blown up in one week.
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Right. So they had this target of 2.2 percent of GDP from all NATO countries going to defend spending in 2020 and 2014. It is currently inching up, but across NATO countries, European defense spending is now at an average of 2.2% of GDP last year. Poland is the only country that is anywhere near 5%, which is what Trump has urged Europeans to get to. The rest are around 2%.
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You're going to see France, Germany, the U.K., all of these countries spend way more on defense. That is boosting shares. And you also saw bond yields across Europe spike yesterday because investors also expect there to be a borrowing boom to finance these defense plans.
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I can't wait for Thursday night. You know, that game got 4.4 million viewers on Saturday. I expect this game on Thursday is going to blow it out of the water. Hockey got a lot of deserved praise for changing up their all-star game format to this four nations idea. JJ Watt called it the best idea hockey has had in a long time. And you're right. You can't
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help but contrast it with the NBA All-Star Game, which happened on the same weekend. They also were not happy with the way the All-Star Game was going. Last year, some team put up 200 points, so it seems like the athletes did not care. But in contrast to what hockey did last The NBA got terrible reviews for they mixed up their weekend a little bit. That included a ton of pauses.
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There was a Mr. Beast promotion where he gave a fan $100,000. That may have been the best part of the weekend. But it was very interesting to compare the two sports leagues and how they tried to rejigger their all-star weekends that had been floundering. One to great success and the other looks like they're going to have to go back to the drawing board.
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Now for a special Tuesday edition of the week ahead on account of it being a holiday yesterday. Here are the major events to look out for this week besides that big game on Thursday. Walmart earnings later will be a closely watched gut check on the U.S. consumer. Things don't appear to be trending in the right direction. Consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level in seven months.
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Retail sales posted their biggest drop in almost two years in January, and inflation is picking back up, surging the most in nearly a year and a half last month. As the nation's biggest retailer, Walmart will either put some of those fears to rest or send investors into something resembling panic mode.
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What is Tim cooking up at Apple? On Wednesday, Apple is expected to drop a new product after Cook teased last week, get ready to meet the newest member of the family. If he's not getting a dog, it could be that he's going to unveil the next generation iPhone SE4.
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Your messaging could be fantastic, but if your ad shows up in front of the wrong person, then it's not effective. LinkedIn ads can't save your relationship, but it can help you target and filter your audience by industry, company, and role. No more wasting time and money on the wrong people. It's 2025.
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But other reports speculate the new family member could be a MacBook Air, an updated iPad, or a new HomePod, the smart home command center. Maybe it's all four. We'll find out tomorrow. I know.
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Alright, I've waited so long to say this. Spring training is back. Baseball returns to sunny Arizona and Florida this week as teams kick off a month of preseason games. This offseason was marked by massive spending by the wealthiest teams to bolster their rosters.
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The defending champs Dodgers spent more than $450 million in free agency, while the Mets wrote a $765 million check to Juan Soto, the richest contract in sports history.
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You don't understand being a Northeasterner and having it being so cold out, and then you flipping on the TV to see Grapefruit League in February and them playing baseball in short-sleeved shirts, and you're like, spring is finally coming.
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Okay, let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Tuesday. For any questions, comments, or feedback, send an email to morningbrewdaily at morningbrew.com. And if you're enjoying the show, share it with a friend, family member, or coworker. Toby, who should everyone listening share it with today?
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Okay, when this Four Nations Cup is over, let's see how much hockey you watch, okay? Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Uchenua Ogu is our technical director. Scoop Stardaris is on audio. Hey, now, hair and makeup, you're an all-star. Devin Emery is our chief content officer.
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And our show is a production of Morning Brew.
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Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neil Freiman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, Argentina's president is caught in a scandal after promoting a meme coin that collapsed.
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Yeah. So how did JP Morgan find out that these email lists that they acquired was not as big as they thought? Just months after the deal closed, they sent out marketing emails to a batch of 400,000 supposed Frank customers. They found out that only 28 percent of the emails were even delivered and just one point one percent were open.
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That's according to the lawsuit that JP Morgan filed against Javis, which is separate from this government case. So if I saw something like 1.1% were open, that'd be bad for the Morning Brew newsletter. It's even bad for a company you paid $175 million for. So they started digging in and found, and they contend that most of this list was made up.
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And you can't help but point out the similarities between Charlie Javis and some of the other Forbes 30 under 30 who are now in their, quote, hall of shame. And it seems like the people on Javis' team are fully aware of these comparisons that are going on. A spokesperson said the only similarities with Holmes is that they are young, good looking and savvy. That's the only comparison there.
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This is a case of due diligence. JP Morgan knew what they were getting into, and buyers remorse once they got it.
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So we got a four week trial coming up. Javis has kind of a powerhouse defense team. Ron Sullivan, Harvard Law professor, is her co-counsel. He has a reputation for taking on seemingly impossible cases. He secured an acquittal in a double murder case of Aaron Hernandez. And he also was on Harvey Weinstein's defense team for a bit. So we'll see how this plays out and whether she joins Javis.
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other Forbes under 30 and being convicted for fraud. How's everyone doing on their taxes? You making progress? The folks at the Department of Government Efficiency do want to know.
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A young software engineer working under Doge is expected to be granted access to the IRS's taxpayer system, a highly sensitive database containing private information on millions of Americans' tax returns, social security numbers, and banking details. The Internal Revenue Service is the latest agency to be infiltrated by Doge in its blitz to cut costs across the federal government.
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But the IRS is an outlier in the type of information it holds on American citizens. And some IRS employees have raised alarms that A political appointee would be granted access to the database known as the integrated data retrieval system because of the highly private nature of its contents.
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Welcome back to the short week. Hope you had a relaxing weekend. Look, there are a lot of things to worry about in this world, but maybe getting attacked by a shark is not one of them. According to a new report from the Florida Museum of Natural History, 2024 was a quote, exceptionally calm year for shark bites.
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This thing is kept under more lock and key than a Gringotts vault with only a select number of IRS workers allowed in to accomplish a specific and official task before getting out as soon as that's done. White House Deputy Press Secretary Harrison Fields defended the move, saying waste, fraud and abuse have been deeply entrenched in our broken system for far too long.
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It takes direct access to the system to identify and fix it. But a similar Doge initiative to review Treasury Department payments has been blocked by a judge, and it's likely this IRS project could also find its way to court.
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Yeah, in fact, taxpayers who have had their information wrongfully disclosed or even expected in this database are entitled by law to monetary damages. The IRS commissioner themselves is not allowed into this database. It is very highly secure. Zooming out, though, the IRS has been this lightning rod for discussions and debate about how to modernize its system.
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It was built on code that was from the 1960s. The Biden administration plugged it with $80 billion to modernize and go after businesses tax cheats who are making over $400,000. Republicans tried to claw that back. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, who leads the IRS, said that he has three goals. It's collections, privacy, and customer service.
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He said, I don't think there's anyone who thinks that the IRS has achieved its potential in either of those three.
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There were only 47 unprovoked attacks around the world last year, down 22 from the previous year and far below the 10 year average of 70. Toby, I think it's time. I'm ready to watch Jaws again.
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this is a huge scandal in Argentina, plastered its front pages over the weekend for a president to be involved in a rug pull meme coin. You expect it from maybe some internet celebrities, Hayley Welch or something, but you don't necessarily expect it from a sitting president of a sovereign nation. This was also a massive wipeout. There are a
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calling it the fastest construction and destruction of wealth in history. $4.5 billion worth of capital was erased in seven hours. That means a lot of people who saw Millet's tweet believe in him and said, oh, this would be good for the Argentinian economy, put in money, and they lost... Many people lost all of it a mere hours later.
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Yeah, I think people who are in the crypto space are saying, please stop doing this. You're ruining not only your credibility, but the cryptocurrency industry's credibility by promoting these sham coins. Up next, it is our winners of the weekend.
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In my experience, a few things do stand out, like leading by example, taking risks, and being passionate.
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That's definitely a match made in heaven.
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Welcome to Winners of the Long Weekend, the segment where Toby and I pick two things that are feeling as refreshed as your co-worker who took a quick trip to the DR. I won the pre-show planking contest, so I get to go first. And my winner is European defense stocks like Saab, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, which all spiked to record highs yesterday. Defense stocks hitting records today.
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Not typically a good sign for your region's security, and that is certainly true for Europe these days. In the past week alone, the Trump administration has left Euro leaders shell-shocked by signaling America was not so interested anymore in defending Ukraine or preserving their decades-long transatlantic alliance, leaving the Europeans to fend for themselves. What were those signals?
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Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neil Freiman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, pour one out for the OG video calling brand because Microsoft is killing off Skype.
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Well, congrats to Onora. The big problem is that no one saw it. It actually set the record for the worst domestic box office performance for a Best Picture award outside of the pandemic. It brought in 15.6 million dollars in ticket sales here in North America. And that is not a lot at all. There is a glaring absence of big blockbusters in the Best Picture category.
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And then, I guess, okay, we'll talk about a thorn. That was the 15-hour flight back from Hong Kong to New York City. It is a long flight, but I tried to mitigate that by just crushing movies. I watched three, Conclave, Before Sunrise, and Apocalypse. Now, all three were excellent.
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The only two that brought in, you know, sizable ticket sales were Wicked and Dune 2. And then the other big blockbuster of the year, which was Inside Out 2, brought in $1.7 billion. It was beat by a much, much, much smaller movie, Flow, for Best Animated Picture. So, That is the big cloud hanging over the Oscars that will anyone watch because no one watched the movies that they were being honored.
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My winner of the week is Mishwe. And if you're wondering what the heck a Mishwe is, A, A, you don't live in China, and B, it's recently become the biggest food and beverage chain in the world. Mishwe Ice Cream and Tea has expanded to 45,000 locations across Asia and Australia by the end of last year, toppling McDonald's and Starbucks as the fast food chain with the most stores in the world.
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And today, it aimed to supercharge that growth by going public in Hong Kong at a valuation of about $10 billion, the biggest in a series of bubble tea companies that have IPO'd in recent years. So what do you get when you order from Mishwe? Really sugary drinks and ice cream on the cheap, like really cheap.
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Its signature products like lemon water and a fresh ice cream cone start at about 25 cents, delivering value at a time when Chinese consumers and college students in particular are tightening their wallets and looking for discounts. And it also helps that Mishwe's got a lovable manufacturer.
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mascot, Snow King, which the Wall Street Journal describes as a love child of Frosty the Snowman and Michelin Man. Similar to McDonald's Grimace, Snow King has become a favorite subject of memes on social media, allowing the company to embed itself in Chinese pop culture. Toby, the only thing that could derail this company is broken ice cream machines.
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And their first day was off to a great start. They jumped 40% in their first day of trading in Hong Kong. And these two brothers who run this company and the one guy who started it are now filthy rich. They are absolutely bubble tea billionaires. They are worth a combined $8.1 billion after this IPO. That's more than former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz.
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Crypto Cheers For US ‘Crypto Reserve’ & RIP Skype
Okay, on Wednesdays we wear pink and on Mondays we preview the week ahead and let's dive right in because the upcoming week could be seismic for the global economy. President Trump's tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, which had been delayed for a month, are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow, March 4th.
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Canada and Mexico have been feverishly trying to make Trump happy to avoid crippling 25 percent tariffs. And it may be working because yesterday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick implied those rates could be lower, calling it a fluid situation. Depending on the extent of the tariffs, supply chain chaos is expected for many American companies, especially for car makers.
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Ford CEO Jim Farley said that tariffs on Mexico and Canada would, quote, blow a hole in the U.S. auto industry.
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And even without tariffs, it'll be a key week for gauging the health of the U.S. economy. The February jobs report drops on Friday, the first since Doge has taken a chainsaw to the federal workforce. And retailers like Target and Costco will report earnings at a time when consumer confidence is fading.
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evening, President Trump will deliver his first speech to a joint session of Congress. This would typically be known as the State of the Union Address, but it's not officially designated as that for a president's first speech to Congress. Little civic lesson for you.
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In the address, Trump is expected to celebrate the shakeup he's given Washington in his first 40 days in office and lay out his plans for the year ahead. But if his last State of the Union is any indication, it could get a little rowdy.
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Invesco QQQ tracks the NASDAQ 100, 100 of the most innovative companies that are actively shaping the future. Think Apple, Google, Microsoft.
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Yeah, that was in 2020. The timeline is hazy. Oh, true. Two very different festivals are taking place this week. First is South by Southwest, the Film, Media, Tech and Music Festival in Austin, Texas, that your friend with the job title of creative director is probably going to. And tomorrow is Mardi Gras, the last day before the start of Lent. So New Orleans is going to be a madhouse.
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Just a little South by Southwest and then a lot of Mardi Gras. Let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have an awesome start to the week. For any questions, comments, or feedback, send an email to morningbrewdaily at morningbrew.com. And if you're enjoying the show, share it with a friend, family member, or coworker.
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Toby, who should everyone listening share it with today?
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Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Uchenua Ogu is our technical director. Garrett Peck is on audio. Hair and makeup missed out on an Oscar last night. You'll get them next time. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our shows are production of Morning Brew.
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Crypto Cheers For US ‘Crypto Reserve’ & RIP Skype
Saquon rushing touchdowns, not included.
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Crypto Cheers For US ‘Crypto Reserve’ & RIP Skype
Perhaps the timing was not a coincidence with Bitcoin falling 28% from its peak. What even is a strategic reserve? Well, it's typically a stock of a critical resource that you can tap for. During emergency times, times of crisis when you need this, when you need access to this resource, probably the best known example is the U.S.
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Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which we set up after the Arab oil embargo in the mid 70s. That is oil. You know, it kind of runs our runs our energy system.
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the moment so that is you know an example of something that you would probably have a strategic reserve of Canada has a strategic reserve of maple syrup China has one of pork metals and grains so the big question is why do we need a one for Bitcoin which I don't think anyone would consider a critical resource
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And even those criticisms were coming from people in the crypto community. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong tweeted after this news came out that he was still sifting through the details. And again, we don't know a ton of details. We're probably going to get more of those on Friday. The Trump administration is hosting this big crypto summit at the White House, the first ever.
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And Brian Armstrong said, I probably would have just done Bitcoin because it is the least volatile of these of the of these crypto currencies. The ones you mentioned are quite volatile. They're smaller than Bitcoin. And the thought was that that it would just be Bitcoin.
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So, yeah, certainly pushback from the crypto community saying this is, you know, another setback for us in our our our goal to legitimize this industry.
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Crypto Cheers For US ‘Crypto Reserve’ & RIP Skype
And meanwhile, yeah, crypto prices have skyrocketed in response to this. The total market cap of crypto gained $300 billion yesterday after this announcement. The weekend's news was dominated by the fallout from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's astonishing and very public blowup with President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in the Oval Office on Friday.
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Shell-shocked European leaders gathered on Sunday to craft a plan to provide security for Ukraine, against Russia as the US's support for Kyiv appears to have reached a low point under the Trump administration.
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Okay, first of all, shout out to you and Anne for holding down the fort. You guys did a great job. So I have a couple of roses. Vietnam is an incredible country. I encourage everyone to go. First is the motorbike and scooter culture of Ho Chi Minh City. It is crazy. It is as advertised. So when you call an Uber there, it's actually Grab. It's not a car for the most part. It's a scooter.
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Declaring, we are at a crossroads in history, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his country and France formed a coalition of the willing that would boost military spending and put boots on the ground to defend Ukraine in the event of a pause in fighting.
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Crypto Cheers For US ‘Crypto Reserve’ & RIP Skype
Meanwhile, in the US, while Trump's team is lambasting Ukraine, they appear to be warming up to Russia as they work together on a ceasefire deal that sidelines Europe. And this sudden thawing of an icy relationship raises an interesting question. Would American companies that pulled out of Russia when it invaded three years ago return? Trump and his top lieutenants seem to be hoping so.
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A week ago, Secretary of State Marco Rubio hyped up the, quote, pretty unique, potentially historic economic partnerships between U.S. companies and Russia. Trump himself said, it's a great thing if we settle this. It's great for Russia, too, because we could do deals there. Russian President Vladimir Putin also welcomed the idea, saying he'd be open to cooperation with U.S. companies.
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Toby, this would be a stunning reversal. More than 1,000 multinational corporations scampered out of Russia in 2022, and Western countries have placed heavy economic sanctions on business dealings in Russia. Would American CEOs consider going back?
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Most of those companies that left were doing, you know, about 1% of their global revenue in Russia before the war. I think the biggest one that I can think of is McDonald's, which had 9% of its global revenue in Ukraine and Russia. McDonald's severed ties. So did so many, you know, American brands that pulled out. So they weren't doing a ton of business in Russia beforehand.
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Crypto Cheers For US ‘Crypto Reserve’ & RIP Skype
Now that the economy, you know, is... soaring inflation and interest rates are at 21%. It does not appear like, yeah, they're going to be rushing back. There could be opportunities for the energy industry, as you mentioned, to go. And they were the biggest multinational players in Russia even before the war started. And there are reports out from the
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Putin ally and an ex-Russian spy was courting American investors to restart or to start up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which delivered natural gas from Russia to Germany. So we'll have to watch what happens on the energy front.
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So some person comes and then you just hop on the back and it's a little nerve wracking at first. But then you realize that it is really the best way to get around the city. Then in another city, we did a cooking class. Shout out, Van, for your incredible cooking. teaching skills. We went to the market to get all these fresh ingredients, came back, and I learned how to cook.
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Crypto Cheers For US ‘Crypto Reserve’ & RIP Skype
Yeah, the writing was on the wall here. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who wasn't the one who bought Skype, that was Steve Ballmer. He hadn't mentioned Skype on an earnings call since 2017. This was a long sunset period, like those long winter sunsets. And, you know, Microsoft, you mentioned Teams. This is what this is all about.
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Crypto Cheers For US ‘Crypto Reserve’ & RIP Skype
Microsoft is putting all of its eggs into Teams, which is the workplace platform. messaging software that saw a big bump during COVID and it's leaning, you know, it's basically just bundling everything into that, which is what Microsoft does. So if you are not a fan of Teams, then get on board because everything that Microsoft does is getting thrown into Teams at this point.
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So I will definitely be cooking up some shaking beef for you, Toby. And then finally, we did a quick stop over in Hong Kong on the way back. And a rose there was definitely the peak. There's this mountaintop where you look over the city and It was probably the most breathtaking view I have ever seen. Better than the Grand Canyon, better than anything else. It was astonishing.
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And with a variable 4.46% APY, VO Bank's money market savings account offers exactly that. Voted as the best money market account by GoBankingRates, its interest rate paid is 10 times the national average.
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All of this means you have the flexibility to grow your money and access it whenever you want or need to.
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In my experience, a few things stand out, like leading by example, taking risks and being passionate.
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Crypto Cheers For US ‘Crypto Reserve’ & RIP Skype
Explore the Range Rover Sport at rangerover.com slash us slash sport. That's rangerover.com slash us slash sport.