Miles Bryan
Appearances
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
Yeah, the job cuts I'm here to talk about are at Mack Trucks Production Facility in a part of the state called the Lehigh Valley. The valley is a politically swingy part of a famously swingy state. It's also exactly the kind of place that Trump says his tariff policies will help.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
You know, after World War II, it was this prosperous manufacturing community anchored by the massive Bethlehem Steel Plant.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
But, you know, that plant started struggling in the late 70s and ended up bankrupt by 2001, by which point the whole area had been really hollowed out by deindustrialization. There's even a famous Billy Joel song about it.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
I've always loved it. All this history made me do a double take when I saw a local news story out of the valley about how Mack Truck was planning to cut around 10% of its unionized shop floor jobs there. And the company was citing tariffs specifically as the reason for the cuts. So last week, I drove up to the area to check it out.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
My name is Dan Hand, and I'm a District 1 committee man. Dan's originally from the Chicago area. I can still hear it in his accent. He moved out here for his now ex-wife about three decades ago and got hired on at Mack. No college degree. Mack makes the big semi-trucks you see on the highway. It makes dump trucks, garbage trucks, plow trucks.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
It's a very iconic American brand. Like, it feels very American.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
And Dan's telling it was an excellent job when he started. You know, he told me this story of applying with literally thousands of other applicants back in 1998.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
These days, it's not quite as competitive, but the jobs are still really good for this area. And recently, Dan said Mac seemed to be on an upswing. It was preparing for the launch of a new flagship model. And as recently as January was hiring a lot. What happens between then and last week that led to the company announcing layoffs?
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
Yeah, Dan said it was a total shock. And, you know, I reached out to Mac's corporate spokesperson. They wouldn't do an interview, but they sent me a statement blaming possible regulatory changes and, quote unquote, market uncertainty and those tariffs. And these layoffs are supposed to come sometime in the next couple of months.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
Well, they're uniformly pissed about the layoffs, but they have mixed feelings about the tariffs because they know that the point of the tariffs, at least in theory, is to protect them, to protect this kind of work. And these workers in the Lehigh Valley, they might need that protection.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
Yeah, this is a whole other part of the story I hadn't told you about yet. Last year, Volvo, which owns Mack Truck, announced it was building a big new truck plant in Mexico. The company says it's meant to supplement American workers, not replace them. But Dan and the rest of his union chapter are really freaked out.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
You know, they're worried that their jobs are going to end up down in Mexico like so many other autoworker jobs have moved over the years. And last month, the local put out a press release with this sort of dramatic video that condemned Mack's decision.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
Well, they make it more expensive to import vehicles from Mexico, and that mitigates the cost savings companies get from moving production to Mexico, where wages are way lower than they are here in the U.S.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
But, you know, the union put out that press release in March, before Trump's tariff liberation day, before we saw how this was going to play out, and before Mac announced layoffs because of those tariffs.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
That's a complicated question. Take our union guy, Dan Hand. He's a registered Republican, big Second Amendment guy. He voted for Trump in 2016, but then soured on him because of how he treated organized labor in his first term. And, you know, he was in that video in March. He's not against tariffs in general, but he's not thrilled about how Trump's been rolling them out so far.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
Well, I guess the counter argument would be that Mac could buy American steel, right? American aluminum.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
Dan's identifying a chicken or the egg problem that's like true across manufacturing right now. Lots of American companies that make stuff here rely on foreign inputs. And making that stuff more expensive hasn't immediately created new steel plants or whatever. Bethlehem Steel is still closed. It's actually a casino now.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
But it does immediately make it more expensive to build stuff here that relies on foreign material. And on top of all this, President Trump announced Tuesday that he's watering down some tariffs for automakers who import parts. So all this is still up in the air, and we're not sure how it's going to play out.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
No, absolutely not. They're really split on politics and on the tariffs. And I want you to meet one guy who really gets at this, John Tanizer. We met in the parking lot of a grocery store across the street from Mack's plant right after he finished his shift.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
It was a bit windy, so we climbed into the back of John's Cadillac to chat.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
John grew up here in the Lehigh Valley. He voted for Trump, and he likes what Trump's doing with the tariffs.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
It's worth noting that he has seniority. He's not as worried about losing his job. But he says his job has gotten a little bit worse every year. You know, the pay doesn't go as far. The benefits aren't as good. And he's watched manufacturing jobs in this area, his home, dry up over the years. So he told me he's willing to tolerate a fair amount of pain in service of turning things around.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
Yeah, it's already resonating politically. I met up with one local politician, a Democratic state representative named Josh Siegel, who's been all over this story. He sounded like every other Democrat in that he condemned Trump's tariffs as stupid and self-defeating.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
But he said something interesting to me, which is he pointed out that this fixation on the fate of manufacturing jobs like at Mack Truck, it kind of misses the bigger economic picture. The biggest employers here now are hospitals and Amazon fulfillment centers. They're not factories.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
And he was like, if we care about the working class, those are the jobs we should focus on improving, getting them to pay more and have more dignity and stature.
Today, Explained
Tariffs hit like a Mack truck
Well, I ran it by a few of them and surprise, surprise, they weren't very moved. Here's what John had to say.
Today, Explained
Cafeteria wars
Coming up. In every company, there's a whole system of decision makers, challenges, and strategies shaping the future of business at every level. That's why we're running a special three-part Decoder Thursday series, looking at how some of the biggest companies in the world are adapting, innovating, and rethinking their playbooks.
Today, Explained
Cafeteria wars
We're asking enterprise leaders about some of the toughest questions they're facing today, revealing the tensions, risks, and breakthroughs happening behind closed doors. Check out Decoder, wherever you get your podcasts.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Now, I think it's worth pointing out that not all tariffs are viewed equally. A good number of people still approve of tariffs on China, for example. They want the U.S. to be more confrontational with China over trade. But trying to force tariffs on everyone else, neighbors, close allies, that's really unpopular.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah, there are some, some social issues like Trump made a big deal last year about diversity, equity and inclusion policies. And the public tends to be still pretty evenly divided over DEI policies in the government or in corporate America. And there's still lots of support for the original underlying goals of DOGE, that Musk effort, Department of Government Efficiency policy.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
People do want cuts to wasteful or unnecessary government spending. They do want government to be more efficient. Like we heard that from Angel. He's a 32-year-old forklift operator we met in a park in Philly.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
How did he do it? Yeah, so he didn't just flip the state. He actually won it by a bigger margin than he did in 2016. That's because across almost every county, every demographic group, every region, he made significant inroads. But Philadelphia itself was drastic. It got nearly five points more Republican than in 2020. Hmm.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah. And so that's the thing is, like, Trump's stance is pretty popular when it comes to keeping the border closed, using the military to do that. That's popular. And part of it is because Trump's position seems to have moved public opinion over the last four years. Yeah. Like, think back to Jose, that there are folks— who want Trump to be more targeted.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
But of course, if you ask more specific questions about specific cases or bring in specific details, like the case of Kilmar Brego Garcia or Trump's fights with federal courts over sending people to El Salvador, none of that is doing particularly well.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah, it's a little interesting here because what we heard from people that we talked to and what the polls are telling us and picking up, there's something similar there where there's concern, there's dissatisfaction, but some people think it might be a little too early to pass judgment.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Or they feel okay with undergoing some short-term pain for long-term gain, kind of the Trump pitch.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah, this is where I feel like it's important to repeat something that defines the modern era. Political polarization is one hell of a drug. Trump's base, his strongest supporters, they're still sticking with him. Even if some of them dislike the tariffs or they feel unsettled or confused about the economy, it's not enough to turn them off from Trump.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Unlike the newer, less MAGA, less ideological, less tuned-in voters who are turning on him now in the polls. That's kind of what's keeping those overall ratings from slipping even lower than the low 40s where they are now.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah, that could happen. But the polling isn't exactly suggesting that. These voters are also not saying that they're running back to the Democrats. Jose, the Dominican-American guy who voted Democrat for years before flipping to Trump, we asked him, are you planning to vote Democratic in the future? And he said he wasn't sure. He did say he was still pissed at his old party. Hmm.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
And a lot of that is because he did historically well with voters that have traditionally voted for Democrats. One of those voters is a woman named Sherita White. Producer Miles Bryan and I actually met her before the election at an event called Black Voters for Trump outside of a cheesesteak place in North Philly.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
And do you think, like, there's going to be elections again next year for, like, Congress and local offices and stuff?
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah. And you have to remember, some of these folks like Sherita, they're already not necessarily the type of people who are likely to vote, whether it's midterms or a presidential election. Somehow Trump has this unique ability. He had it in 2016, 2020, and last year to bring out people who probably wouldn't have voted before.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
But with him off the ballot and with Democrats not really offering a compelling vision right now, it seems like these folks, they're just going to tune out of politics. It's a shame, really, for voters like Charita or Jose, who might be frustrated or feeling burned by both parties, to tune out or disengage from politics because they represent a group of voters who can deliver elections.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
And people have long memories. They're not going to forget what they're feeling right now. And for whatever party wants to replicate the energy of 2024, they ignore these voters and what they're feeling and what they're saying at their own peril.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
And Sherita ended up standing in for a lot of the new voters that Trump captured last year. They weren't traditional Republicans. They might not have voted for a Republican before at all. But they liked his first term. They remembered it well. And they believed his message this time around.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Have you two stayed in touch? So we failed to get her number back then, so we lost contact. Until last week when Miles was able to get in touch, and she invited us to her house in Philadelphia for a check-in. Nice.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
So she told us that during Trump's first term, things were good. But then during the Biden years, everything got worse. Her husband died. She lost her job, then her house. And now she's living in a neighborhood called Kensington, which is kind of known for being an open air drug market.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah, I've been there once. It's rough. Yeah. And then she said that inflation made everything more expensive. And Trump's messaging was clear and simple. Vote for him to bring prices down. And so she did. And now with Trump a few months into his term, we figured we'd ask her, how are things going? Have you seen prices go down?
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah, so Sharita told us that she doesn't pay close attention to the news. She catches some stuff on social media.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
But some of the general chaos of the first few months of Trump has managed to filter its way to her. And it's freaking her out.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Sharita's kids get their dad's Social Security payments, and one of her sons has Crohn's disease. So hearing these rumors that Trump was going to make big cuts to Social Security or other government services has unsettled her. Now, important thing to note here is she emphasized that she wasn't sure that any of this stuff was happening.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
But she was still hearing about it from friends and relatives on Facebook, and that's where the worries come from.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Basically, she was telling us the more that she thinks about it and the more that time passes, she regrets that vote. Poll after poll, what Sharita is saying, it's a recurring picture where you have not very Trumpy kind of marginal Trump voters who seem to be the most upset with his presidency so far in that Trump coalition.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
It doesn't mean that all of them want to redo their votes, but it does suggest something for Republicans in the future that they can't necessarily count on that Trump coalition anymore. Like the most recent Pew Research Center study found that from February to April of this year, Trump's approval among his own voters declined about six points.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Trump supporters, strong Trump supporters, they're mostly sticking with him. But non-MAGA soft supporters, those are the ones that are really turning on him.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah, so while we were out and about in Philly, Miles and I went looking for some of these voters, those who might be starting to drift out of the Trump coalition. They weren't hard to find.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
OK, so this guy is feeling it. Yeah, yeah. Kensington, where Sherita lives, has a big Puerto Rican Dominican population. And we ran into Jose just like a block down from her house. He's in his early 60s. He said he's retired, but occasionally works as a handyman. And he told us he's voted Democrat for years, ever since he became a U.S. citizen.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
But he voted for Trump last year because he wanted prices to come down.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Jose needs his own late-night comedy show. It was so fun to talk to him. But he got serious, too. He said it's more than just economics. He was all for Trump's immigration plans. He... He liked Trump's pitch about deporting criminals, but that's not what he's seeing in practice.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
What Jose was telling us is something that the data is reflecting, too, that there were and are plenty of Black and Latino people, especially in cities, who believe Trump's pitch about closing the border, about being tougher on crime, including crime by undocumented immigrants. But the reality has been different.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
And a lot of the people that are getting caught up in Trump's immigration actions don't have a record of violent crimes. That's not necessarily what these voters thought they were going to get from Trump. And it's a good example of what we're seeing with these new Trump voters, where they like some of his ideas in theory, but the execution isn't really what they were expecting.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah, it's interesting here because Jose's not alone that there are folks who maybe heard bits and pieces of information, depending on their information and media diet, that at times were conflicting, right? Because plenty of folks in the Trump realm and campaign would say, obviously, mass deportations now, but at the same time would say, But we're going to start and focus on violent criminals.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
We're going to start and focus with members of international, transnational gangs. And so there's maybe a chance that some of these voters heard some things that they believed, that they didn't believe, what they wanted to believe. And now that they're saying it in practice, it's not exactly aligning with what they thought they were going to get. And it's more than just immigration.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah, you can probably sum it up as the economy tariffs. For the first couple of months of the presidency, it seemed like plenty of both new Trump voters, independents, and even some Democrats were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Despite all the news coverage about Elon Musk, Doge, executive orders, Greenland, the Gulf of America...
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Trump was still relatively popular with both the MAGA base and the new voters he had picked up. But then something changed in April. A lot of good things are happening for our country. Please sit down. Liberation Day and the chaotic rollout of Trump's tariffs that really scared people.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
And that's when Trump's approval really fell. People in general, but especially independents, Black, Latino, and young voters, they didn't like how broad the tariffs were, how chaotically they were being applied and then suspended. And overall, it shook confidence in Trump's ability to handle the economy.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
And it seems that from then on, his trade and economic ratings really pushed down, pulling on all sorts of other things, and his overall standing.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
Yeah, yeah, they did. Miles and I actually went to some college campuses in Philly to talk to young guys. That's another group that swung really hard to Trump last year. And at Drexel, we ran into Nikita, a finance major who's about to graduate but can't find a job.
Today, Explained
Oops!... I voted for Trump
He told us that he voted for Trump because of the economy, because of stocks. He cares about the stock market, pays a lot of attention to it. So it makes sense he'd be upset about the tariffs and what effect they'd had. But even among voters who are more focused on day-to-day expenses or not as tuned into the news as Nikita is, the trade war is still unpopular. Like, listen to Sharita's take.