Kenny Malone
Appearances
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
All right. So these are huge, important predictors of where the economy is going and sort of how much the engine should get revved up. Yeah, yeah. But why now? Why in the future? Why do you think it's important now?
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
And I suppose it depends to some extent on what you think about the long-term consequences of, I don't know, AI and productivity, unrest in the Middle East, of various Trump presidency policies, those kinds of things. That's a big one.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Yes. It is my prediction, gentlemen, that 2025 will be the year of... Global trade, baby, or lack of global trade. Depends, depends. We're going to see because that is my indicator of next year.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Yeah, just stuff moving around the world, the rate of stuff moving. I know it does sound like an ambiguous, not real indicator, but in fact, the World Trade Organization reports world trade numbers regularly. And of course, at the heart of watching this next year
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
is anyone anyone rhymes with uh sans serif uh tariffs tariffs yes tariffs of of unknown size is i guess my point here because president-elect donald trump has floated at various times like a a lot of different potential tariffs. So there was at some time floated a baseline tariff of 20% on all imports, 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada, and as much as 60% on goods from China.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Are we able to run a crackling fire under this whole intro? Is that possible? Oh, I'm Kenny Malone from Planet Money. Ah, yes. I can feel the warmth right now. Jeff, come on in. Come around the fire. Come on in. Come on. Thanks. Thanks, guys. It's getting kind of cold out there. There's Jeffrey Guo. Jeff Guo. Great to have you here. It's so cozy in here. It is.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Those are likely the extreme ends. We don't know for sure where the tariff numbers will land. And of course, that has me thinking a lot about... Anyone? Anyone? Rhymes with cute folly. Anyone? Smoot Holly. Smoot Holly! Of course. Yes, these are the infamously big and broad tariffs passed in 1930, which are then featured in a...
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
boring lecture in the movie Ferris Bueller's Day Off, where the teacher keeps saying, anyone, anyone, which is why I keep doing it. See what I was doing there, everybody? There you go. I see what you're doing there. But the thing is, following those enormous tariffs, global trade dropped by about 26%. It was a lot. And so for my money now... Global trade is what we should be watching next year.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
We are nearly 100 years post-Smoot-Hawley. The world is more globally connected than ever. And what happens when you drop gigantic tariffs into that world? And I guess, how gigantic will the tariffs be? All of that will matter quite a bit. And I think it is worth watching next year. Wow.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
I hope it was worth it. Absolutely our pleasure. Of course. Next time, I'm going to bring sunglasses. You've got to tell us ahead of time if there's going to be glowing anything. That is fair.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
These episodes of The Indicator were produced by Angel Carreras and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. They were engineered by Gilly Moon and Neil T. Vault. Kate Kincannon edits The Indicator. I'm Kenny Malone. This is NPR. Thanks for listening.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
There's nothing like it. It's so, so warm and friendly. It's time for Family Feud. That's right. Ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-ba.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
You know, one thing I do wonder, every year we do this, the sort of timer buzzer is offensively loud and maybe an OSHA violation. Can we get that checked ahead of time this year?
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
All right, it's Family Feud, where we lovingly quarrel over what was the indicator of the year that just passed, and where we try to predict what will be the indicator of the year to come. But let us first begin with 2024. And how this works is we're going to have 60 seconds on the clock. Each of us is going to have a chance to make our case for the indicator that best captured the year 2024.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Are you each ready? Have you brought notes? Have you brought, I don't know, speedy read-throughs? What do you got? I got it all up here. Adrian, why don't you then, Mr. Memory, take it first? 60 seconds on the clock.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Look, I'm not here to rag on other people's indicators, but I will say in last year's Family Feud, I won Indicator of the Year with Consumer Sentiment for 2023. So it doesn't devalue you doing it now. It doesn't mean that you are repeating it and uncreative. It doesn't mean any of those things.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Yeah. What's your indicator of the year? All right, ready? Put it on the clock. Are we ready? Someone give me the go. Okay, three. Two, one. HODL, diamond hands. My indicator of the year is the price of Bitcoin. One Bitcoin at the start of the year cost around $42,000. It is now above 100. Bitcoin was created in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Distrust of institutions is baked into its very existence. And yet today... It's true that maybe some people are buying this because they see uncertainty on the horizon, more distrust of institutions.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
But what seems to be more prominent in an explanation is the spike is that people assume the incoming administration is going to be very friendly to crypto, which ironically is, I guess, a kind of trust, crypto trust in incoming institutions.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Either way, I think Bitcoin is an indicator of the year because its very existence, its modern value is a very 2024 Rorschach test for how people feel about the world's institutions and where they are headed. Thank you very much. I rest my case. Okay. Bitcoin. Can I ask? I'll be honest. Did that make any sense? I don't want to sound unconvinced in my own argument, but what do you think?
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
No retakes, no retakes. Look, I currently do have the belt for winning the feud, and if it has to go to somebody else, because... I said any indicator.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
They might. You think so? They'll be like, we used to have a thing called fiat currency. And they're like, there was something other than Bitcoin, Grandpa? And we'll be like, yes, yes, yes, my darling Hodel. That'll be her name. but not because of Bitcoin, just because I love Fiddler on the Roof. That's all. No, you guys really? Neither of you? Come on. That's such a good joke.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
I wish Waylon were here. She would get that. Oh, my God. Well, I don't feel great about that effort, I'm going to be honest, but that's okay. Jeff Guo, let's put 60 seconds on the clock.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Where is Jeff? What is Jeff doing? Didn't we say no bits? No bits. What? No shenanigans.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Jeff has literally wandered off camera. His camera is off. He's making us wait. We have passed my heart out for this recording when I must go pick up my children, and yet Jeff must go get a can of soda for whatever he's about to do. disrespectful.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Yes. Oh, that is what we were waiting for. Wonderful. A pun. I was thirsty. Three, two, one, go.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
After all of that buildup, we have half a minute to have only given you 45 seconds anyway. You're lucky you got the full minute, Jeff Guo. Now that we've gotten the feud out of the way, everybody, let's go ahead, let the old fire up again. We can be cozy together and be friends because that really is what the holiday is about. It's about fighting briefly and coming back together and then dorking.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Yes. Yes. It's a beautiful, beautiful thing. Yes. All right. Listen, we've made our cases for Indicator of the Year. Now it is your turn to vote, listeners. You can email us at indicatoratnpr.org. That's indicatoratnpr.org. Or you can also check out posts on Planet Money's Instagram at Planet Money and leave your choice in the comments there.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Coming up after the break, we're going to make our cases for the future. What will be the next indicator of the year for the year 2025? And while we go into the break, Jeff, do you want to throw another log on the fire? It's just getting. Oh, yeah.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Adrian, is that a glowing orb? Oh, my God. I think we should touch it. Sure, why not? All at the same time. Ready? Let's take three, two, one. I feel like I can see it all. The future, the present, the past. I've been blessed with the knowledge. Time is a flat circle. Are you seeing it too? Oh, yeah.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
head oh my gosh inflation expectations the mythical our star and global trade or the lack thereof OK, so why don't we start? Adrian, why don't you start?
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Oh, ask the people, the wisdom of the crowds. This is good.
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
All right. So inflation expectations, Adrian. That's pretty good. Pretty good. Jeff Cole, what is the glowing orb foretell in your eyes?
Planet Money
The Indicators of this year and next
Longtime Planet Money listeners may know that our star is something we are kind of obsessed with. It's arguably a mythical number. Yes.
Planet Money
How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming
Little burger, little fry, and I believe a small drink, which honestly is basically a kid's meal. Baby, you know what's bad when Five Guys is actually rolling out combo meal.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Hello, Planet Money listeners. This is Kenny Malone. We have a story today, one of our absolute favorite episodes that originally aired a few years back. But since then, there have been a few significant updates. So stick around to the end of the story to hear those. Here's the episode. This is Planet Money from NPR.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
We've learned some disconcerting things about this from Walter Schramm's Amazon case.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
But the state still deems a bank account abandoned after five years and investments abandoned after just three years.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
We figured that Brenda wouldn't be able to talk about individual cases, but gave it a shot anyway. Audrey told her about Walter and his Amazon bet.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
As for Walter, here's where his case stands. Walter initially looked for an attorney to help him get the current value of his Amazon stock from Delaware, more than $100,000. A ton of money, but apparently not enough for a lawyer to take the case on, Walter says.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
So for now, Walter is stuck with the original deal from Delaware. The state offered to pay him back the value of his stock from when they cashed it out in 2008, which is about $8,000.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
The hope is that at that point, it'll be worth it for a lawyer to take on the Schramm descendants case and they'll get Delaware to settle, which does happen sometimes.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Okay, so it has been about five years now since this episode originally ran, and there is a fair amount of news to share. So let us begin with Walter Schramm, who did, in fact, find a lawyer and is now the lead plaintiff in a class action lawsuit essentially against Delaware's unclaimed property office.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
That suit alleges that people like Walter were not given appropriate notice before their property, or their stock in his case, were seized and then liquidated. Now, that case is still ongoing, and since we first talked to Walter, the price of his now long-ago liquidated Amazon stock... has more than doubled.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
And our final update, and I just want you to picture like a rainstorm of cash coming down for this one. Since our episode originally ran, Planet Money listeners like you have found over $38,000 in unclaimed property at their various states. And And that is just those of you who got in touch to tell us about it.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
So listen, if you go to your state's unclaimed property website and you find lost money, please do tell us about it. We have a spreadsheet. We love updating that thing. You can email us. We are planetmoney at npr.org. You can also tag us and show the world that you found money on all the social medias. That is generally at planetmoney.com.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
And I mean, you know, listen, if you suddenly find yourself with some unexpected cash and a lot of gratitude for your favorite economics show, well, I will remind you that the best way to support our journalism at Planet Money is to become a regular NPR Plus supporter. You can do that by going to plus.npr.org.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
This is a way to help us stay independent and a way for you to get sponsor free versions of our episodes. And right now we've got a special series from the Planet Money archives that include a behind the scenes look at the time Planet Money bought a toxic asset that we named Toxie. Lots of incredible details about how that project came together.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
That is for our Planet Money Plus subscribers, and thank you so much if you are already one of them. Today's episode was produced originally by Alexi Horowitz-Ghazi with editing from Nick Fountain. The update today was produced by James Sneed. Our executive producer is Alex Goldmark.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
So Walter does just that. He waits until 2015, about 20 years, to finally cash in his Amazon stock. At that point, the stock he'd bought for around $6,000 should be worth around $100,000. And so after years and years of not looking, Walter finally logs back into his E-Trade account.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
A very Walter Schramm way of saying he was terrified. He wanted to retire. He was counting on this money and now it was gone.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
And E-Trade tells him, yeah, you're going to need to speak to the state of Delaware. That's where E-Trade is incorporated.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
And E-Trade says, yeah, specifically you should ask for the Delaware Unclaimed Property Office.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
This terrible, unpronounceable word. It was the first sign that Walter had stumbled onto something huge. An obscure government program that depending on how you look at it, is either a brilliant way to protect you from greedy corporations or a way for state governments to literally reach into your accounts and take your money. Hello and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Kenny Malone.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Today on the show, we bring you a classic episode from 2020, one that is, in hindsight, a kind of bit of a public service. It's about how the government gets this stuff, this unclaimed property, how you can get it back, and why Walter Schramm may never see his stock again.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Jennifer Borden runs an escheat law practice. Escheat, by the way, E-S-C-H-E-A-T.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
The concept has been updated pretty dramatically and is now employed in the United States. And the way that this works now is that each state, like each actual state government, has an unclaimed property department because we, the people, are forgetful.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
We got Walter on the phone to ask him about his missing money, and he was angry. But you should know that the angry version of Walter Schramm sounds like this.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Think of it as like a giant state run lost and found. And this used to be Jennifer Borden's job. She worked at the Massachusetts Division of Unclaimed Property.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Every state in the country does some version of a sheet. And the way it used to work in the past was the state would take control of your stuff on your behalf, of course. And then they would take out a newspaper ad saying like, hey, Joe Smith, we have your stuff. Come get it.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Yes, Audrey has made me promise not to do this until we are recording. We are now recording. So, okay, what do I do here?
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
All right, here's Florida's sheeting site, I guess. It has a better name than I would have thought. FloridaTreasureHunt.gov.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Okay. There is a Kenneth D. Malone. That is my old address. Like a pretty old address, though. All right. Property type. Vendor checks. Reported by National Public Radio.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
From NPR? Yeah. This is great. I'm 100% taking a vacation if this is enough money. Oh. It's $40. Which is fine. Which is fine. But, yes, I happen to know, Audrey, that you did this and had much better luck than I did.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
And you could see the argument for why this is a good thing the state does on your behalf. Like, you know, companies don't... necessarily have the most incentive to get that money back to you. Like, I love NPR, but you've heard our fun drives. I don't know how hard NPR was going to try to get that check back into my hand.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
And so what happened in that case instead is that NPR is required to tell the state of Florida, Kenny never cashed his check. And then Florida says, great, cut that check to us. We're going to hold on to the money for him. And now he can file a claim for it.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
For years, this was a big part of Jennifer Borden's job. She was working for the Massachusetts government trying to connect people with their abandoned stuff. And she loved that. But the more time she spent thinking about as she has like a system, the more she started to notice problems.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Here's what happened. Walter is Italian, and in the late 90s, he had the brilliant idea to start a company selling Italian specialty products online largely to Americans.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
And it is a lot of money. States are taking in about $8 billion a year of unclaimed property. And about two-thirds of that money stays unclaimed. So in most states, it just gets folded into the state's budget.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Now, Jennifer is careful to say the people at unclaimed property offices want to get unclaimed property back to the rightful owners. It is the best part of the job, she says. But maybe there is a systemic problem. Like this Ishit system is supposed to stop companies from turning your forgetfulness into their profit. It's possible states are now just doing a version of that same thing.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
The more Jennifer considered all of this, the more she thought maybe my Eshit talents would be better spent elsewhere. She still thinks that Eshit is on the whole a great system, but she now helps people and businesses protect their money from Eshit.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
For example, it used to be that an account was deemed abandoned only after a piece of mail was sent to the account holder, then got returned by the post office. The person couldn't be reached.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
But now in a lot of states, property gets labeled abandoned just because a person didn't check into their account or access the account within a certain length of time, which I don't know, like that feels like a sneakier kind of standard.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
And all of this brings us back to Walter Schramm, the very chill but actually quite mad investor who bought a bunch of Amazon stock back in the 90s.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
So, great. Problem solved. The state of Delaware was holding on to Walter's Amazon stock. No, that is not what happened. See, one of the problems with a sheet is that it's not always clear how it would work with different kinds of things people forgot about. So for like, you know, a check or a bank account that someone forgot, like that's pretty straightforward.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
The state can assume control of that money. It was just sitting there. Now it can sit in the state's account.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Obviously, the state cashing out your stocks could work in your favor if the government cashes you out right before your stock takes a dive. Or it could totally screw you, which is what happened to Walter.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
After the break, we call the state of Delaware and ask, does Walter really need to take this a sheet? Boo. It's bad. You wrote it, Audrey. It's not a coincidence that Walter's stock was taken by Delaware. That is where two-thirds of all Fortune 500 companies are incorporated, and that's a lot of potentially lost accounts to keep track of.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
But this is not where things go south for Walter, really. It was unfortunate, sure, but to him, the Amazon thing was just another great investment opportunity.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
The first was about this idea that unclaimed property has become a huge source of revenue for states. For the last few years, Delaware's general fund has gotten a lot of money from a sheet, around $550 million a year.
Planet Money
Escheat show (Update)
Again, if you take nothing else from this episode, it is that you should go and make sure you've not left abandoned money somewhere that is now in a state coffer. I am $40 of living proof that you should do that. And in that regard, it is a good system. I never would have found that money. It probably never would have found me. On the other hand, a sheet clearly has some flaws.
Planet Money
Worst. Tariffs. Ever. (update)
We have to protect and build our steel and aluminum industries.
Planet Money
Worst. Tariffs. Ever. (update)
We will have a 25% tariff on foreign steel and a 10% tariff on foreign aluminum.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
So it turned out another company had beaten them to the same idea. It was not a scratch ticket this other company was offering. It was much more low-tech, like an advent calendar with little paper flaps. But still, it claimed to offer the same basic novelty of an instant reveal. And those brand-new tickets, they were already in the warehouse.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Done. The U.S. Census Bureau collects lottery sales figures for every state. And you can see right away there are some stragglers on the low end, like Wyoming, North Dakota, where the average adult spends around $50 a year on the lottery.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
So John told Dr. Peralta and the lottery officials as much, and they made a deal on the spot. John was allowed to take home 50 of these new tickets and do his best to prove they could be hacked.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Again, lotteries were terrified of losing credibility and trust. This would have done just that.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
And within 24 hours, John was ready to report his findings. So he flew back to Boston.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Patiently, John began to walk the lottery staff through his findings. There were, he explained, at least three distinct vulnerabilities.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
So method number two was that if you ran the tickets through a photocopier, that raised impression from the printer was just prominent enough that the hidden numbers would come out in the copy.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
You know, John did not elaborate on why Fresca in particular. But as you're saying, you know, it's a citrusy, acidic kind of drink. So I don't know. Maybe it's a good solvent. I'm just speculating. I have no idea.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
I'm totally out over my skis here. What John did say is that after this presentation, the lottery staff were horrified.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
On May 29th, 1974, just over 50 years ago, people walked into convenience stores and gas stations around the state and saw that ticket.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
But then there is the lone outlier, way off the charts at $1,037. That's $1,037 of lottery tickets per adult sold every year in the state of Massachusetts. That is the reason I'm here at Joe's Market, to try and understand that number. You got a winner.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Did you realize that you had created something that would be huge?
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Today, Americans spend over $100 billion a year on lottery tickets. Almost two-thirds of that total is spent just on scratch tickets. Yes, the big Powerball jackpots are what you see in the window of the convenience store on the billboard. They get more press, and the keynote numbers are always flashing on the TV screen in the corner.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
But the scratch ticket, that's the bread-and-butter, day-in, day-out game that keeps the money flowing. Have you, do you play other lottery games or just scratch tickets?
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Look, so, I mean, Kenny, have you been to Massachusetts ever? Yes, a bit. If you've ever set foot in this state, you know, we take great pride in like our firsts, our distinctions. We love a good historic marker. We've got plaques for everything. Here's the thing. I've never seen a plaque celebrating the lottery or the invention of the scratch ticket.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
I didn't really know any of this stuff before I started working on this story. And I think that's kind of telling. It's like it's something that people are not entirely sure how they feel about, whether they're proud of or not. And I'll include myself in that.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Which is ultimately why I love this topic so much. It's kind of a little uncomfortable. I mean, the way I see it, state lotteries and scratch tickets in particular are really kind of the key to understanding the world we live in today. And it's a world where gambling, right, legal gambling is everywhere. It's at the corner convenience store. It's on your phone. It's on TV.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
And it's pretty crazy if you think about it. that in just a few decades, we went from this world where gambling is like a shady business run by the mob, kind of on the margins, to now gambling is an industry, right? It's this ubiquitous, incredibly aggressive industry. And however you feel about that, if you want to know how we got from there to here, the answer is lotteries.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Instant gambling in the palm of your hand. That's where it starts.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Yeah, so in part two, we're actually going to go back to before the scratch ticket to the story of how a state like Massachusetts got into the gambling business in the first place. The answer, which was very surprising to me, involves Churchill Bingo.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
And it also involves a state treasurer who is so into vaudeville music that he installed a piano in the statehouse and started his own singing group called, and this is one for the Planet Money listeners, The Treasury Notes.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
I'm going to buy number two, all right? That $100 he won turns into another round of tickets, then another round. Not a loser. Then one last round. I'm going to buy one more, and that's it. This time, it sticks.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Special thanks to Jonathan Cohen for helping me connect with John Koza and for sharing so much material and insight from his own research. Thanks as well to my brother, Sebastian, for all the great hand-me-down shoes and clothes. They do still fit. And also to the staff at Joe's Market in Quincy.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
I try to ask his name one more time as he opens the door, and he responds, Jack. Jack. Jack. Thank you, Jack, for talking to me. What? Which I know is not his name. It's the name of the store clerk. Everyone turns to look.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Everybody's Jack, someone says. And with that, the man is gone.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Yeah, specifically, we're talking about the birth of the scratch ticket, which more than any other lottery game, totally transformed the way we gamble. Kenny, get this. Americans now spend more on scratch tickets than we do on pizza, more than we do on all Coca-Cola products. Yet the scratch ticket, as a consumer item, has only existed for 50 years. And it all started in Massachusetts.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
So back in the 1960s, John was in grad school studying computer science. The board game was won in a string of side hustles and pet projects.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
What this man is playing is the state's brand new $50 scratch ticket. He points at the serial number on the top right corner to show he's keeping track.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
The catch was that if the company printed all the game tickets exactly the same, people would notice the pattern and just keep winning. Yeah. So what this company needed help with from John was a way to make many, many different versions of this ticket, all different, so that people couldn't just know where the matching cards were.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
For example, a player might notice some subtle but distinct pattern in the layout of the tickets and be able to predict where the matching cards were. Or maybe they'd figure out a way to actually see what was printed underneath that scratch-off film.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Unpredictable and unhackable. A perfect game of chance, with the odds calibrated exactly how the company wanted. And just when it seemed like they had it all figured out, this game company John was working for, J&H, went bankrupt. In December of 1972, they cut John loose.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
So now you're a newly minted PhD, unemployed, with years of experience in the nascent instant ticket business. What do you do with all that?
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
So at that time, 1972, there were just seven states operating lotteries. And to be clear, these were generally, at best, weekly drawings. There weren't like ping pong balls and giant fish bowls on television every night. It was not that.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
The scratch ticket promised to change all that. It was an instant lottery in your hands.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Organized crime. I mean, it's hard to imagine passing on the instant ticket now, but gambling in the 70s was largely associated with the underworld, the mob. So these state-run lotteries were very, very conservative.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
States were so concerned about organized crime that they didn't hire people who designed games for a living to run these lotteries. They got former FBI agents.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
It's the early 1970s. The head of the organized crime strike force based out of Boston was a man named Ted Harrington.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
And Ted helped to develop a key mafia informant right there in Boston named Vincent Teresa, known to his critics as, you guessed it, Fat Vinnie the Stool Pigeon. The two would meet secretly in guarded motel rooms around the state.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
This man is happy to talk money. A couple times he opens up his wallet and shows me exactly how much he has left, how much he's spent. But he doesn't want to say much about himself, including his name.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
When you speak of the mob, when you speak of that... So here we've got Vincent Teresa sitting in front of federal lawmakers, slick suit, TV cameras rolling, and he says, this organized crime stuff, it all boils down to one thing.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Vinny once described gambling as, quote, a chain-link fence that stretches to every place in the world. From it comes the corrupt politician and policeman, the bribes and payoffs, and sometimes murder. If you could crush gambling, you would put the mob out of business.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Yeah, the illegal numbers rackets were still popular because the illegal games could offer their customers things the state lottery couldn't, daily action. Winnings with no worries of taxes.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Kneecaps aside, though, why would you want to play the boring state lottery?
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
When something that was illegal becomes legal, it's tempting to think you get a simple substitution. What once happened in the shadows now happens in the open. But the reality is that the two worlds compete. They innovate. They dance. They force each other to change. And the end result is something entirely new, often unexpected. One of those strange outcomes is the scratch ticket.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
So after John was laid off, he and another jobless colleague, Dan Bauer, decided to start their own company, Scientific Games. It was just the two of them operating out of an apartment in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and a kitchen table in Chicago. And in 1973, the year after his first round of pitches, John started going back to those same lotteries they had pitched before.
Planet Money
How the scratch off lottery changed America
Everyone called the lottery director Dr., Dr. Peralt. And in addition to being a mathematician, Dr. Peralta also happened to be an expert bridge player who once took his eight children on a family vacation to Las Vegas, in part to study the wheels and cards as illustrations of statistics.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Now, this Christmas Eve phone call is, I think, one of the most damning, the most damning that Burton found. Nixon is on the phone with one of his cabinet members named George Shultz. And we're just going to let this play for a bit. You're going to hear Nixon speak first.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Prosperity Without Inflation. Burns discussed how inflation was caused by too much money flowing through the economy, too much money chasing too few goods.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
No, this is as close to a smoking gun in the tapes as you will find for Fedgate. It lays bare that Nixon thought of the Fed as a tool at his disposal. The regular phone calls, the Oval Office meetings, like none of that, Burton Abrams says, is what an independent Fed looks like.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Are you saying the fact of the meetings alone is troubling?
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
After the break, the manipulation, the catastrophe, and the secret thoughts of one Arthur Burns. When you're listening to the Nixon tapes, what you're listening to are the Nixon tapes. Like, you're listening to people come in and out of his world. Everybody other than Nixon is just an ancillary character.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
No. But you know where he does confess his innermost thoughts and feelings? You can hear my post-it notes. This is well marked up. This right here is the secret diary of Arthur Burns.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Yeah, and just like a little excerpt here. February 23rd, 1969, saw Prez off from Andrews Air Force Base on his trip to Europe, rained hard.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
At another point, Burns wonders if Nixon has been drinking because he calls Burns and then 30 minutes later calls again, seemingly forgetting about the first phone call.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Yeah, yeah. Allow us to demonstrate here. So, entry from December 29th, 1970. We have Burns writing a story about Nixon meddling, maybe meddling, in a public speech that he was supposed to give at a college. Mary will do her best Arthur Burns now and read that entry.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Now, is that an Arthur Burns or is that a Katharine Hepburn, Mary?
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Okay. Okay. Arthur Burns. Yes. March 21st, 1971. Burns is warned of enemies from within.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
W.H., that is his way of writing White House.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
RN, Richard Nixon, and apparently RN was calling to say he'd made a public statement to clear up a nasty rumor about Arthur Burns, selfishly demanding a big pay raise. Nixon did not address what Burns deeply suspected about this rumor.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
W House, White House. That is a threat to pack the Federal Reserve Board and fully overthrow its independence. Big deal. November 3rd, 1971.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
And then exactly one week later, this phone call.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, good, good. Yeah. Yeah. OK. Yeah. When you just listen to the Nixon tapes, it sounds like Arthur Burns suddenly one day changes his mind about expanding the money supply.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
But when you read his diary, you realize that this change happens after months of phone calls, after an alleged White House smear campaign, after a leaked threat to fully take over the Fed by the White House.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
I wonder if a favorable interpretation with burns is He knew that this was not the optimal way to run the Fed during this time But if he didn't do a little bit of it He was gonna somehow be ousted somehow be run out of town and someone else would be put in place who would do it even worse Well, I think that's fairly accurate Here's why I ask.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
He doesn't comment on this stuff literally in the diary, but he does sound tortured. It doesn't sound like he enjoys being a Nixon hack. I mean, there's a quote specifically in his diary from November saying, where he says, the president's preoccupation with election frightens me. Is there anything he would not do to further his reelection? I am losing faith in him. My heart is sick and sad.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
That doesn't just sound like a crony to me.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Nixon is in the Oval Office with George Shultz, that cabinet member from the smoking gun phone call. Nixon is impatiently waiting for Arthur Burns to arrive. He's got to get his butt in here, but not butt.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Nixon says, this is going to be the last time I see him, the last time he sees Burns. War is going to be declared if he doesn't come around some.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Into the Oval Office comes Arthur Burns, presumably with a pipe.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Now, Richard Nixon was pretty savvy about some economics, Burton Abrams says. So, like, Nixon knew that unemployment is a lagging indicator. This meeting is eight months before the election. And if Nixon wanted good unemployment numbers for Election Day, he needed Burns and the Fed to act now.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
I really don't care what you do in April. But between now and April, something, something garbled. that can hurt us, something garbled, in November.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
But in the end, there was no uncooking the economy. The next year, inflation doubles. Then again, by one point in 1980, it was 14.6 percent.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
The next Fed chair, Paul Volcker, gets credit for fixing all of this. It wasn't pretty. He raised interest rates so high to like 19% that it essentially caused a recession, but did eventually seem to get things under control. How do you walk away feeling about Arthur Burns?
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
So Burton Abrams' mystery was, did Richard Nixon use his power to bully Fed Chair Arthur Burns into doing things that helps Nixon in the short term but caused huge problems in the long term? And then if so, how did Nixon do it? Like literally, were there recordings of him doing it buried somewhere in the 1,500 hours of now-released recordings?
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Burton says there are people who will defend Arthur Burns. He is not one of them. Was Burns pressured? Yes. Should he have known better? Also yes.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
He has been invoked recently with the Trump administration taking over. And Trump having explicitly said he'd like more control over the Fed. You will hear the question, does current Fed chair Jay Powell want to be an Arthur Burns or a Paul Volcker?
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
I imagine Arthur Burns somewhere taking a long, meaningful inhale on his pipe, thinking, thinking, thinking. This episode of Planet Money was produced by Sam Yellow Horse Kessler and edited by Jess Jang. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and engineered by Sina Lofredo with help from Kwesi Lee and Jimmy Keeley. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Special thanks this week to, I mean, I guess, Richard Nixon for the inexplicable decision to record everything he ever did.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Hello and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Kenny Malone.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
A scandal like Watergate, well, that's the kind of thing they make movies about. Burglars, informants, etc.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Yeah, Fedgate. It is the story of Richard Nixon and his Fed chair. It's more subtle than Watergate. It is more about monetary policy, but arguably had way bigger implications.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
This is Planet Money from NPR. secretly recorded audio from the White House. Specifically, 1,527 hours of secretly recorded audio.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
37th president, elected in 1968, famously claimed to not be a crook. He's been dead for 30 years, and I would wager most Americans can still do a passable Nixon impersonation.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Full disclosure, it did take a little convincing, but of course our intrepid economist Burton Abrams can do a Nixon. Well, Nixon would have said, Arthur, goose their money supply.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
I'm sure you could do an Arthur Burns impression. We wouldn't know if it was good or not. But if you were casting Arthur Burns in a movie, who would you have play Arthur Burns? Hmm.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
So yeah, Burns and Nixon, Nixon and Burns.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Nixon was vice president at the time to Eisenhower. Arthur Burns had been a member of Ike's Economic Council and noticed that the economy was slipping into a recession. Unemployment was rising a little. And Burns actually went to then VP Nixon and said, this is going to be a problem for your upcoming presidential campaign, Dick, the one against JFK.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Eisenhower and his economic advisors were upholding the tenet of Fed independence. And the reason it is so important for the Fed to be independent is because what is good for politicians, for the president, and what is good for the country do not always align.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Now, Fed independence is not a law. It is a norm, an agreement. And our investigative economist, Burton Abrams, deeply suspected that the catastrophic inflation in the 70s and 80s might have begun because of Richard Nixon ignoring that norm. If so, perhaps the Nixon tapes could allow a kind of autopsy of the whole mess.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Like how exactly might Richard Nixon have pressured his Fed chair, Arthur Burns, into disastrous monetary policy?
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Do you remember where you heard the announcement?
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Why did Nixon install this recording equipment three years into his presidency? Well, it's a good question. Nixon was a famously paranoid president and wanted exact documentation of his conversation so no one misconstrued what he said. But yeah, it's an odd choice for sure.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
So you're hearing them for the first time. And do they tell a story? Do they answer the question that you wanted them to answer? Yes, indeed. In the end, Burton discovered a handful of tapes that to him tell the story.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
We begin with tape number one. The date is October 29th, 1971.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Because obviously everyone wants to know about the dirty details, Watergate, the nonsense, the corruption.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Now, this meeting is a year before the 1972 presidential election. And Nixon was worried, likely, that over the last two years, unemployment had almost doubled. It was now around 6%.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
And in this meeting with Arthur Burns, Nixon seems concerned about the economy's effect on his re-election.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
will be the last conservative administration in Washington. And then he adds, Really, what we really want, I hope we've done it. I don't want to go out of town fast, which I guess is Nixon's slang for I don't want to be a one-term president.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Nixon seems to be saying, Arthur Burns, Fed chair, oh mine, you should do something.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Yeah. And as such, Arthur Burns seems to take a stand.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Popular man, I bet you were. Yeah. See, ever since Burton Abrams was just a grad school whippersnapper, he had hoped that the Nixon tapes might solve a mystery that he'd been somewhat obsessed with, a mystery that begins with a famous economist named Arthur Burns.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
So I assume Nixon is not super jazzed about that meeting.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Okay. Nixon tape number two. This is about two weeks later. It is a phone call.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Yeah, more money flowing through the economy, just like Nixon wanted.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
It's more expansionary policy. Flooding the banks even more. And do we know why Burns was willing to do this?
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Right. So, OK, theory one, inflation and unemployment had been ticking up during Nixon's first years in office. And it is possible that Burns thought the inflation part was largely caused by people freaking out about inflation.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
So maybe Burns thought this inflation has less to do with too much money chasing too few goods and more to do with people thinking irrationally. Maybe he thought he had wiggle room and could add money to ease unemployment and not spike inflation. Maybe he thought now the president would push for less government spending.
Planet Money
The case for Fed Independence in the Nixon Tapes
Plus, there were literal price controls in place to artificially keep inflation down.
Planet Money
How DeepSeek changed the market's mind
Big yawn, turn on the old TV, and oh my, what is happening in the stock market right now? Uh, yeah. the single largest loss in a day of market capitalization in history.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
This is Planet Money from NPR. Hello, I am Kenny Malone. And I'm Amanda Aronchik. And we are here because, of course, the season of giving is upon us, the spirit of giving. And in that spirit, Amanda, we at Planet Money would like to share with everyone a sample of what our bonus content sounds like. So usually what you're about to hear, it's just for our Planet Money Plus supporters.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Theoretically, your passwords are encrypted in some way.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
It's choosing – what's clear is you're choosing which risk you want to take here.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Like that is all that exists in this horrible dystopia that we've created for ourselves in the data world.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Have I learned everything?
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
I just want to say I know it's a little annoying to have multiple steps, but may I suggest a reframing in your head. Think of it not as an annoying sort of extra hurdle. Think of it as a fun little scavenger hunt. that you get to play where it's like you get, ooh, now I'm going over here to my phone and ooh, now I'm going over here to my email and I'm going to type it in.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
It's like an escape room, really. It's like an escape room of your own life.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
See? Reframe it and then multi-factor authentication rules.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
I'm paying a lot for a password manager. Yes, that's right.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
I see. You don't have to outrun the bear. You just have to outrun someone else who's outrunning the bear.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
True. That is true. Okay. All right. This is exactly what I wanted.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Just going to go lock and unlock my credit. Yeah, that's right. There you go. Beautiful.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
So listen, we're going to put links to the resources and websites that we talked about or that Amanda talked about. She's going to do all of that work. I don't know why I'm saying we. It's going to be you, Amanda. You got all the work to do.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
That's going to be in the show notes. And we're also going to link to Amanda's original episode, which is is great and about like kind of more of the system here that allows this kind of hack to happen.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Amanda goes on the dark web.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Once again, we make bonus content like this one every other week for our Planet Money Plus supporters. So if you want more Planet Money in your life and you want to help keep our work and the work of NPR going, you can sign up for Planet Money Plus. That is at plus.npr.org. Plus.npr.org. I'm Kenny Malone.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Okay, so if you would like to hear more bonus content like what you're about to hear, you can sign up for Planet Money Plus at plus.npr.org. That is plus.npr.org. There are other perks as well, including our regular episodes, sponsor-free. And if you are a part of Planet Money Plus already... then thank you. Thank you for supporting us. Genuinely, this keeps our work and the work of NPR going.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
And we're back. Okay. We're going to start this. Ready? Classic. Classic radio.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
It's what we do. It's what we do. That is a rather voluminous letter I received. In fact, everyone in my family received one of these telling us that we were all part of a substantial hack. Yeah. Let me get a little sound of that again.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
And this one in particular is like not the company I was doing business with. They apparently were managing data on behalf of the company I was doing business with. So it's – this letter in particular is funny because it's like – Hey, you've never heard of us or heard of us. But one thing you should know about us is we know a lot about you.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Yes. And this is particularly frustrating to me, I will say, before we get into this, because I'm very careful about my passwords. I change my passwords all the time. I use very complex passwords that I can't remember. I use a password manager to keep track of them. I use two-factor authentication. It doesn't matter in this case because they didn't hack me personally.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
They hacked this big company that had all of my data.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
But today we're making this bonus episode available to everyone, to all.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Yeah. So anyway, I have a very basic question. Yeah. I got this letter, and there are all these suggestions about what I could do in this letter. Can you help me understand what I am supposed to do?
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Okay. Okay. Letter noise, letter noise, letter noise. There are, I think, about five or six suggestions in here that I would love to just go through with you. And you can tell me, are these useful? Are they BS? Or are they somewhere in between? Shall we? Yeah. Here we go. Thing it suggests, number one. Order my free credit report. So what this means is there are companies, Experian, TransUnion.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
What's the other major one?
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Those are the three big ones, yeah. These are the major credit bureaus. They keep track of tons of our information to tell someone else how likely it is that we are to pay back a loan. I mean, that is their very basic function in society.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Correct. All of that stuff. Okay. So you can order a credit report from one of these companies if you've never done it about yourself. And so here I am being told that this could maybe help me in some way now that I've been hacked. Should I do that? Is it helpful?
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
I think the credit reports will often say like, hey, remember when you asked to take out this line of credit? And I'll be like, no, I didn't ask to take out this line of credit. Yeah.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Okay. That doesn't sound fun, but I will look that up and read that.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Okay. So not BS. Get your free credit report. Great. Thing number two. Yeah. Enroll in credit and identity monitoring services. Okay. So I've never done this before, but presumably –
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
This is a service that just – that I guess this company that got hacked is now providing me for free to just like keep an eye on whether someone is going – is taking out like a line of credit in my name or something like that.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Was that after the hack you did it?
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
To like the emails they send you or whatever.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
We should have put that on our rubric. Well, I do have a question that I don't know if you know the answer to. But if I enroll in one of these credit monitoring services or I request my free credit report, do any of these affect my credit score? Do they affect my credit? Because I think the more people run – No. Okay. Yeah. That'd be messed up.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Oh, yeah. Christmas at the alpaca farm.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Yeah, so helpful to join the credit monitoring. However, read the fine print. Read the fine print. Read the fine print. Because you may be waiving your right to be part of some large litigation or something. Right. So not BS, a little asterisk, but okay.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Suggestion number three.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
contact the US Federal Trade Commission.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
There is a lot of economics in this. The economics of how Christmas rom-coms get made, the economics of the fiber markets. And the more I say it, I know the more it sounds like it is a joke. It's not a joke. Sounds delightful and seasonal, honestly. Anyway, sometimes we watch movies and we talk about them on the bonus feed.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
We've been looking at your case, Kenny.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Working overtime on it.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
I mean, and to be fair, it seems like what it's actually telling me to do is like, go read whatever they've written. about how to protect yourself from identity theft. That seems to really be what they want me to do.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Okay, that one is very funny, though. Item number four, place a fraud alert on your credit file.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
A kind of like second or third factor authentication on credit lines.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
And do I do that with all three of the big credit bureaus?
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Okay. All right. So yet again, not a bad idea. Not a bad idea. Okay. Final recommended step. This is a big one, and it's one that I actually have thought about a lot. This is a recommended security freeze. I guess I should say it's not recommending it. It's saying, quote, you have the right to request a credit freeze from a consumer reporting agency, which is another name for the credit bureaus.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
So that functionally locks down your ability – to take out a loan. So, you know, get a new line of credit, maybe extend an existing line of credit. It locks that ability down unless you preemptively like open it up because you know you're about to request a new line.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
But then sometimes we're also just working on an episode of the show and there's extra material that didn't fit in and we want to share it. And that is what we're here to do today in this bonus episode. So, Amanda. Yes. You recently did an episode, a whole episode on what happens when your personal data gets stolen.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
To lock and unlock?
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
It seems obvious to me that a security freeze is useful. It is an armor plate against someone doing one of the worst things they can do when they steal your identity, which is tank your credit by taking out a giant line of credit in your name. Right.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
This is the medicine I was kind of dreading you would need to take in a situation like this because it definitely seems inconvenient but obviously helpful.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Okay, okay. I will do that, especially before this episode runs telling everyone that I've been part of a giant hack.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
So that's all that's in this list, basically. Is there anything else I should be doing?
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
The image that you've like landed flat on the internet and they're like peeling you off.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Okay, pretty helpful. All right. Anything else that one should do after they've learned that they're part of a gigantic hack?
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Yes. I can't believe we didn't even say that.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Do you know the one that kept happening to me? What's that? Is like TikTok purchases. Not on this one, but like when someone got a hold of a credit card number, they just kept buying crap through TikTok, like on people's TikTok stores.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
It showed up as TikTok purchases and it was like, obviously I didn't make this purchase. This is outrageous.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
And you had a bunch of extra reporting on it that I have been begging you to tell me about personally.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
Or your email is like unfortunately the key to everything.
Planet Money
How useful, really, are the steps you can take after a data breach?
So you want to protect that.
Planet Money
The Rest of the Story, 2024
And he goes, we're selling your house. And I'm like, what are you talking about? He goes, don't pretend that you don't know what I'm talking about. And I go, I actually don't know what you're talking about.
Planet Money
The Rest of the Story, 2024
Yeah, it was like shaken. I'm being evicted from my house that I've been making monthly payments on and that I'm current with.
Planet Money
The Rest of the Story, 2024
So approximately 3,300 members, or less than 0.02% of our 24 million members, have been limited in their ability to make returns.
Planet Money
The Rest of the Story, 2024
On average, this group had a return rate of almost 80%. So that means that if they purchased $1,000 worth of gear from us, they returned $800 worth of that. And more than half of that gear had been used. We saw customers buying an entire season's worth of ski gear. So skis, boots, clothing, using that gear for the entire season and then returning it all once they were finished.
Planet Money
The Rest of the Story, 2024
Yeah. You may recall that former Planet Money co-host Robert Smith and I, we attempted to attend five different New York area sporting events in a single day. It was chaos. There they go. There they go. There they go. All right, sports event number two. It is the Jets versus, one second.
Planet Money
The Rest of the Story, 2024
This is a dumpster fire. This is an actual dumpster fire. It was a real dumpster fire. But along the way, we tried to pay as little as possible to get into all of these events. Oh, dude, I got 10 bucks.
Planet Money
The Rest of the Story, 2024
That's right. Some would say you should be paid to go to a Jets game. But yes, yes, we did pay $10. That's next time. Now, the reason we went to these events is because even though inflation was going through the roof then, sports ticket prices were actually going down.
Planet Money
The Rest of the Story, 2024
And so, Alexi, my update is that now, even though inflation has slowed down, sports ticket prices are now actually going up, like way up.
Planet Money
The Rest of the Story, 2024
Yeah, 180 degree turnaround. So, you know, when we did our story about two years ago, ticket prices had dropped 17.7% year over year. One year after our story, they were up 25%, like even higher than before the drop. So this rise in sports ticket prices is part of a phenomenon that has earned its own name that I think you're going to like. It's called, ready?
Planet Money
The Rest of the Story, 2024
funflation funflation what we should have cooked that up we didn't and it does cooking it up since it reminds me of the funfetti cake with the little sprinkles but yes this is apparently how economists are talking about the the rush of demand and thus increased prices for live events that i guess we missed during the pandemic uh
Planet Money
The Rest of the Story, 2024
Sports have seen the biggest jump in ticket prices, but the consumer price index category that tracks movies and theater and concerts like all together has also generally outpaced inflation. So it appears we reported that original sports ticket story in the exact window before the funflation, the brief window of like whatever you would call the opposite of funflation. I don't know.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
It's not even that people are lying necessarily. They might just have trouble discovering what in their heart of hearts is their true maximum willingness to pay.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
But first, OK, we're going to take a detour to Uganda because it really helps to see why and how economists use this technique in real life.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Rebecca was in Uganda to test that theory. She wanted to see how much moms and dads valued a bunch of different items like a math workbook or candy or or shoes or deworming medicine.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Sorry, sorry. Can you say that again? Becker-DeGroote-Marshak. The Becker-DeGroote-Marshak, it's really fun to say, or BDM method as it's known, it is like a magic trick. It is a specific way of asking people about price that sort of forces them into a rational corner.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Like they were actually selling items. That part is key to this whole thing.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
And then Rebecca randomly generates the book price. And if that price is higher than your max, then you have agreed to not buy the book. But anything else, if it's lower than your max, you do buy the book.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Yeah, because it is the perfect method to figure out which of our NPR colleagues values eggs the most.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
This is NPR audio engineer Becky Brown. She is one of the 15 people who expressed interest in Sam's eggs.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Right. But what we couldn't tell them, because it might skew the results, was that whoever valued this single egg the most would be the winner of more eggs. They would get to buy a full dozen of Sam's eggs at his fixed price of $5. See?
Planet Money
How much for that egg
So we asked Becky to think long and hard about her willingness to pay for this one egg. Just that one egg.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
We run through a couple scenarios with Becky. First, we said, imagine that the random price we generate is 89 cents. Yeah, okay.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
If this random number generator, it comes back and it's like... $2. How do you feel?
Planet Money
How much for that egg
It feels like this is your maximum willingness to pay for this egg.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
A couple of weeks ago, our NPR colleague Sam Mertens wrote something in our shared company messaging system. We called him up and asked him to read his message.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Which means that was it. Becky named the exact right price for her and did not overpay for an egg.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Yeah, it's not just a few backyard chickens. Seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 chickens in there? There are a total of 26. And they lay way more eggs than Sam and his family could ever need. Sam points out his favorite chicken, a scraggly, blackened, gold-flecked hen named Lacey.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Lennon Sherburn. Joshua Hoffman. We had to play the same game with the rest of our NPR egg colleagues. It is time to play How Much for That Egg? We explain the rules and ask them each to give us the absolute maximum price they pay for a single egg. We're going to put 10 seconds on the clock. Talk us through your thinking.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Her name was Valentina Rodriguez-Sanchez. She's another NPR audio engineer. And her number was so high, it was actually higher than the highest egg price our random number generator was set to produce.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Like, if the number generator comes up with, like, $5, then you have to literally pay $5 for an egg. Yes.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Nevertheless, it was clear even after we tried to dissuade Valentina from this bonkers valuation, she was sticking to it. So we increase the max on our random number generator. Random number generator activate. Beep, boop, boop, beep, boop, boop, beep, boop, boop, beep. Oh. Here. And now we reveal. Okay. Here we go. Are you ready for this?
Planet Money
How much for that egg
As has become our custom, we had Sam Mertens surprise her with a visit.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
If you're looking for more economic explainers to help you make sense of this moment, check out our feed. We have a deep dive into trade deficits. What are they? Why do they matter? Also, an up-close look at how the new tariffs are actually playing out in Canada. This episode of Planet Money was produced by Emma Peasley and edited by Marianne McCune.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
The stack check by Sarah Juarez and engineered by Jimmy Keeley. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Aw, but Sam being a sweetie, okay, is also an issue for us. Sam is capping his egg sale prices at just $5, basically to cover some of the cost of taking care of the chickens. And we explained to Sam that this does take the easiest option off the table. Like, you could just sell your eggs to whatever NPR colleague is willing to pay the most.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
No, I know. Sam was also not interested in the next most obvious option. Generally the fairest way to allocate a... Correct.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Hello and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Jeff Guo. And I'm Kenny Malone.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
We try out some techniques from the world of new product development to see if we can secretly test for egg love.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Now, there are a group of people at NPR, about 15 of them, who have at some point expressed interest in buying a dozen of Sam's eggs. Econ 101 would say Sam's extra eggs should just go to whichever of those colleagues values Sam's eggs the most.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Yeah, coming out of this nationwide egg shortage where farm fresh eggs have been selling for as much as $12, Sam has eggs and sold them for just $5.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
And we went to Abigail because we were curious if we could answer our question via a survey.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
To blind our survey of its egginess, she says, we will need to casually include eggs within a set of other foods.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
So Abigail recommended that we adapt a survey technique that companies use to design new products, where you basically force people to make trade-offs.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
If you put enough of these choices in front of people, you can figure out what tradeoffs people really care about. In our case, we use those forced tradeoffs to test for love of eggs. So we created a survey with a series of questions that force people to make breakfast tradeoffs.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
We started calling people from that list of 15 NPR colleagues interested in buying Sam's eggs. Of course, we needed to blind the fact that this survey was secretly actually about those eggs.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Okay. Each survey participant was shown a random grouping of four foods. Waffles, eggs, bacon, yogurt. We asked them to choose their most desired food.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
And yet, this survey still did exactly what it was supposed to do. It identified a single person from the crowd.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
That person was named Mike Myers. He's an NPR audiovisual engineer. And our survey would conclude that he values eggs more than anyone else, even if they are Holiday Inn Express buffet eggs. Were you picturing a big vat of watery eggs?
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Keep going, Jeff. I'll dance. So we found a way to allocate the first dozen of Sam's $5 eggs. Success!
Planet Money
How much for that egg
After the break, one more carton of eggs, one new customer, and a method that forces people to honestly state their truest value for anything.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Right, because only charging $5 for a dozen eggs, like, respect, that is a solid, not jerky colleague move.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
So Sam needs a way to decide who among his colleagues should get his future orders of his one dozen eggs at his very low price. But first order of business, why does he even have these eggs? What is his egg hookup?
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Sam was in. Now, the obvious thing to do would be just to ask our 15 NPR colleagues how much they'd be willing to theoretically pay for a dozen of Sam's eggs. Whoever values them the most, they get the dozen. For $5, of course.
Planet Money
How much for that egg
Eight, nine dollars. That's pretty good. One of the things that Rebecca studies is how to figure out how much people value things using price. And there's a term for this. It's called willingness to pay.