Evan Osnos
Appearances
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
I came through with a very distinct impression of one thing, which was the limits of American influence and power over the last four years. And that's either by the force of events that interfered with our ability to achieve what we wanted or – and this is a very controversial question –
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
The limits of what we were willing to do, the limits of what Joe Biden was either capable of or thought that the politics compelled him to do in terms of using the leverage of the presidency. That's a big and quite contested issue.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
There is fury, rage, contempt for Benjamin Netanyahu. But yeah, but I will say there's something else, too. But what is it?
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
Because over and over and over, he either ignored what it was that they asked for or played them. Would say, OK, we're going to open up a humanitarian channel. And then, of course, would go and do something offensive in three other ways. Yeah.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
Well, David, this actually gets to, I think, something that is at the core of... what has limited and what will ultimately tag Joe Biden's legacy, which is Biden fundamentally misread the role of personal politics, both at home and abroad. Abroad, he said, look, I've known Bibi Netanyahu longer than anybody in American government. I know this guy's deceptions. I know his moves.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
I'll know how to get him. And he said that right after October 7th, this is the perfect moment. I've got him at a moment where he needs us and so on and so on. And he stayed believing even through all of these moments of betrayal and frustration over the course of the next year plus. He stayed in the belief that he could just through sheer personal bond shape that policy. And it failed.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
Actually, interesting, I think he's unencumbered on that relationship precisely because he doesn't have a meaningful relationship with Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping, in his way, is canny enough to know personal politics doesn't matter when you're talking about superpower relations. He sees this as a historical thing. civilizational kind of encounter.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
And I think in some ways, Biden was able to navigate the China question a little bit more clearly because he didn't have any illusions that he somehow saw a psychological dimension of Xi Jinping that others could not.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
The core of it is Biden's belief that they could revive the post-Cold War, even the post-World War II set of institutions and understandings. Things like the fundamental sanctity of NATO, the power to be able to push back against Russian aggression with it.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
Because what we're about to see is a president and an administration that is either contemptuous of or untutored in all of the kinds of institutions that defined the U.S. role in foreign affairs for certainly the last four years and very much the eight years before that. This was partly, in fact, a reflection of the Trump years that Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin,
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
to some degree, Iran and North Korea came to believe that the United States was this frantic, fading power, and that it would provide a natural, call it what they see it, a natural enemy in the years to come. And I think that in some ways, it's an irony, a kind of
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
bitter irony that Biden's time will be remembered as the eclipse of so many of those post-Cold War institutions to which he devoted his decades of life in the Senate, but really believing that those were the bulwark against a world of cruel power in which might makes right, because you now have an administration that is coming in that believes quite clearly in the idea that
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
The larger, more powerful side of any encounter deserves to be right.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
He certainly has reason to be afraid of that. Donald Trump has signaled to the Chinese in pretty explicit ways how little he regards Taiwan's integrity and sanctity. I mean, he said at one point last summer that Taiwan is something like 9,500 miles away from us and it's right next to China. They pay tremendous amount of attention to comments like that in Beijing.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
I mean, compare that to Biden, who said four times that he would put U.S. troops on the ground. If China invaded now, the administration would walk it back every time and say they never change policy, but it created at least it maintained a level of ambiguity.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
There is a pretty worrisome assemblage of evidence that that Trump is putting forward that he really doesn't care much about protecting Taiwan.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
If he does not, I think that the risks are partly domestic. He's dealing with a huge number of problems at home, like the fact that he doesn't have enough jobs for young people, the fact that he has young people who feel demoralized, and you've got wealthy people who are sending their money overseas.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
All of that's to say, sure, he might imagine he could take a flyer and say, well, maybe I can rally people around the flag, pull them out of their depression a bit by some sort of big foreign adventure. But that is a risk. He is many things, but he's not... But how could the risk fail?
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
I give you one data point, which is Ukraine. Vladimir Putin thought he would be in Kiev in 72 hours. Xi Jinping does not even have the luxury of imagining that he could undertake a brisk and convenient amphibious assault on Taiwan. It's a very hard thing to do.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
Well, I mean, it's a look. I don't want to pretend to be a naval officer, but the smart people on this will tell you it's a very hard thing to do to amass the number of troops to bring them across the Taiwan Straits at the right time of year. There is also the question of how much Taiwan would resist. There's also the question of how ready Taiwan the Chinese military is.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
One thing to watch for, David, if you're curious about when it might be that Xi Jinping thinks he's ready to attack Taiwan, is will he stop sacking senior generals in his military? He has continued to do that. And part of that is because he evidently does not have confidence in the military that they oversee or in his ability to control it. So
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
There are a lot of things that Xi Jinping is that are similar to Vladimir Putin. But one difference is in terms of risk tolerance. And Xi Jinping has not tended to take great risks when he doesn't have to. And I think for the moment, and this could change any time, but for the moment, attacking Taiwan might be a bigger risk than he needs to take now.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
Look, Trump has humiliated little Marco, as he called him, at various points. One thing he gets out of Rubio, though, is very useful, which is he's obedient, but he's also knowledgeable. This is a thing. I wrote a profile of Marco Rubio in The New Yorker some years ago, so I kind of talked to him enough about foreign affairs to do some basic – we'll call it sort of knowledge checking. Yeah.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
Unlike Pete Hegseth, who in his confirmation hearings the other day was asked to name countries in ASEAN and could not. You know, that was his Sarah Palin moment where it was, you know, I love all the countries in ASEAN. Right. So he had no idea what he's talking about. Marco Rubio, I don't agree with him on a whole lot. But he knows the briefs.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
But, you know, I remember asking Rubio once, you know, what are you reading? And he said, I'm rereading William Manchester's biography of Churchill.
The New Yorker Radio Hour
Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview
I said at the time, I said, nobody reads. I don't even think Manchester re-read it. It was a thousand pages, but at least he knew what Manchester was and he knew, you know, he could have picked Churchill out of a lineup. So there's a lot to worry about.
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Baby’s first gene edit
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Today, Explained
Baby’s first gene edit
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