Derek Thompson

Today, being wrong about artificial intelligence.

Two weeks ago, in one of our most popular podcasts of the year, the investor and author Paul Kudrowski explained why he thinks artificial intelligence is a bubble.

And in the last few days, practically everybody I follow and read seems to agree.

I hate this.

I really hate this.

I don't like feeling like my position on any issue is the same position that everybody else has.

It's not just me wanting to not belong to the team that everyone belongs to.

It's my deep-seated hunch that conventional wisdoms are often more conventional than wise.

And I've recently started to wonder, is there a bubble of people calling AI a bubble?

Today's guest says yes.

Azim Azhar is an investor and the author of the wonderful blog, Exponential View.

And before I introduce Azim, let's review why everybody seems so sure that AI is a bubble today.

Go back to the 1960s.

The Apollo program allocated about $300 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars to get America to the moon between the 1960s and the early 1970s.

The AI build-out requires companies to collectively fund a new Apollo program, not every 10 years, but every 10 months.

The hyperscalers, the big tech companies, and the frontier labs are collectively spending three to $400 billion every single year to bring artificial intelligence to life.

This is the most that any group of companies has ever spent to do just about anything.

The hallmark of a financial bubble is tricky financing.

Once you see companies going into debt or devising creative new financial vehicles to build something without a guaranteed return, you should start to be a little bit concerned.

I think we're clearly already there.