Charles Maines
Appearances
Up First from NPR
Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
Morning, Michelle.
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Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
Well, I think it's important to look at it in a broader context. You know, Trump returned to office in January saying he wanted an end to the war in Ukraine. His efforts to craft a full ceasefire didn't work out. So the White House has really shifted tactics. It's pursuing smaller, limited ceasefires that work towards a wider peace.
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Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
So last week, it was that deal to end attacks on energy infrastructure, at least in theory. It hasn't quite held. And now the latest deal involves maritime passage through the Black Sea. Kiev and Moscow both promised to ensure safe passage to commercial vessels.
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Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
The catch, and it's a big one, is it's not clear when the partial ceasefire would begin or if conditions to put the deal in place could be met.
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Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
Well, they mostly come from the Russian side. The Kremlin issued a statement in which it made clear the deal would only come into force once the U.S. had lifted all sorts of sanctions-related entanglements to Russian maritime trade that were put in place because of Russia's invasion of its neighbor.
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Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
Things like plugging Russia's state agricultural bank back into the international payment system, giving access to Russian sea vessels in foreign ports, even just solving problems like getting Russian ships insured to haul cargo around the world. So, you know, in essence, Moscow is demanding the U.S.
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Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
resolve all sorts of complaints that had doomed an earlier United Nations-brokered deal that tried to get Russian and Ukrainian grain and fertilizer out to world markets in the first year of the war. That's when there were real concerns about global food shortages.
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Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
It is. But even for Trump, speaking yesterday, he sounded somewhat unsure the U.S. could meet all the Russian demands.
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Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
You know, the truth here is that the U.S. can't really remove all these barriers without European allies agreeing to do much the same. And Europe remains far more skeptical of Moscow and supportive of Kyiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine, you know, it's objected to what it sees as unilateral sanctions relief for Russia by the U.S.
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Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
Perhaps with that in mind, the White House also addressed Ukrainian demands, saying it would work towards the return of Ukrainian children and prisoners of war held by Russia. That's something that Kyiv has been asking Trump to press Moscow on. really ever since he came into office vowing to end the war.
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Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
You know, it does. Both Moscow and Kiev have accused one another of violating that energy infrastructure ceasefire, just as both have continued attacks on targets outside of that agreement. And because of all that, there's a lot of skepticism on both sides. This latest ceasefire deal will work.
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Intel Hearing On Group Chat, Return To Office Mandate, Black Sea Deal
In fact, sometimes it feels like the Trump administration is its own best cheerleader in this process, optimistic, whatever the truth on the ground.
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Ukraine Talks, U.S. Health Agency Cuts, NYC Mayor Eric Adams Fallout
Well, the meeting was a direct result of that phone call last week between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which these two leaders agreed to pursue this negotiated end to the war in Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as we heard, headed the U.S. delegation, along with White House envoy Steve Witkoff,
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Ukraine Talks, U.S. Health Agency Cuts, NYC Mayor Eric Adams Fallout
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz as well, who said that they showed up determined to get things done.
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Ukraine Talks, U.S. Health Agency Cuts, NYC Mayor Eric Adams Fallout
Now, these talks paced out at about four and a half hours. Both sides described them as positive, as serious. They also made clear this was just an initial step towards more negotiations to end the war. They didn't expect to solve it in one day.
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Ukraine Talks, U.S. Health Agency Cuts, NYC Mayor Eric Adams Fallout
Yeah, no, that's right. Ukraine was not even invited, although both Trump and the Kremlin say Ukraine will be involved in some way at some point. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned Kiev won't recognize any deals that are done without Ukraine. And Europe, of course, has been upset about being sidelined, an issue they see as key to European security.
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Ukraine Talks, U.S. Health Agency Cuts, NYC Mayor Eric Adams Fallout
Yet the American delegation, Waltz in particular, pushed back against this idea that somehow Kiev or Europe was being ignored. He said, no, this was just shuttle diplomacy. You talk to different sides and pass on what they have to say.
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Ukraine Talks, U.S. Health Agency Cuts, NYC Mayor Eric Adams Fallout
It certainly feels like it's headed that direction. Both sides said they would move forward with plans for a meeting between Trump and Putin. They've now agreed to meet face to face. So by all accounts, Russia's isolation over its actions in Ukraine appear over.
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Ukraine Talks, U.S. Health Agency Cuts, NYC Mayor Eric Adams Fallout
In fact, after the talks, Lavrov spoke about how it wasn't normal for big countries like the US and Russia to not engage as they hadn't during the Biden years. But things were different now. I think it's very useful. So here he says that the talks were useful and for the first time in a long time, Russia felt not just heard, but listened to.
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Ukraine Talks, U.S. Health Agency Cuts, NYC Mayor Eric Adams Fallout
Well, President Trump has said Ukraine must give up both its NATO ambitions and territory to Moscow. These are two key Russian demands that have really fed fears that Ukraine won't have a say in its own future. But Secretary of State Rubio, as we heard in that intro, says he wants a deal acceptable to all parties.
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Ukraine Talks, U.S. Health Agency Cuts, NYC Mayor Eric Adams Fallout
How that works, where borders are drawn, I don't think anybody knows, including Rubio. But there's clearly a concern in Ukraine that while Kiev wants a just peace agreement, Trump just wants peace. And because of that, and because Moscow has the upper hand, both on the battlefield and around the negotiating table, they're nervous.
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Russia Mulls Ceasefire, EPA Rollbacks, Iran Rebuffs Trump
Well, yesterday, the Kremlin spokesman said Moscow wanted to hear detailed information directly from the Americans. And today we learned they're getting it on multiple fronts. White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff arrived this morning for talks with Kremlin officials. That's his second trip to Moscow since he negotiated the release of an American schoolteacher last month.
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Russia Mulls Ceasefire, EPA Rollbacks, Iran Rebuffs Trump
Meanwhile, Putin's advisor, Yuri Shakov, said he'd been in direct telephone contact with U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Waltz was one of the key U.S. negotiators in talks with the Ukrainians, and Ushakov made clear Moscow found the U.S.
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Russia Mulls Ceasefire, EPA Rollbacks, Iran Rebuffs Trump
So here Ushakov says Russia saw the ceasefire as simply an opportunity for Ukraine to regroup and rearm. And he went on to repeat that Moscow wants a long-term end to the conflict that takes into account Russia's security interests, something the Kremlin has said often, frankly.
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Russia Mulls Ceasefire, EPA Rollbacks, Iran Rebuffs Trump
Not necessarily. I mean, that's what Witkoff is in Moscow to discuss. But clearly, these two sides are far apart. Keep in mind, Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously said quite explicitly he would not accept a temporary ceasefire because he wanted a peace that addressed, in his words, the root of the conflict.
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Russia Mulls Ceasefire, EPA Rollbacks, Iran Rebuffs Trump
Now, that's Kremlin speak for Russia's demands that NATO retreat from Russia's borders and, of course, forego Ukraine. There's also this. So last night, Putin dressed in military camouflage with state media cameras in tow, visited army headquarters in the Russian region of Kursk.
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Russia Mulls Ceasefire, EPA Rollbacks, Iran Rebuffs Trump
Now, that's where Russian troops appear to be finally on the verge of driving out occupying Ukrainian forces who've been there for months. So this was essentially a propaganda tour. And while Putin made no mention of the Ukrainian ceasefire offer, it certainly felt like he was signaling he preferred a military solution. He told his generals to essentially crush the enemy.
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Russia Mulls Ceasefire, EPA Rollbacks, Iran Rebuffs Trump
Well, that's certainly the point made by more nationalist voices inside Russian society. They say this proposal by Ukraine is really an attempt to use diplomacy to stave off defeat militarily. The catch is that while that may be true in Kursk, where it seems as though Russian forces are genuinely making big gains, it's a harder slog in actual occupied Ukraine.
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Russia Mulls Ceasefire, EPA Rollbacks, Iran Rebuffs Trump
Meanwhile, polls show a majority of Russians want an end to the conflict in some fashion. And so given that, you know, does Putin risk alienating Donald Trump, given what at least so far has been a very favorable climate of negotiations?
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Russia Mulls Ceasefire, EPA Rollbacks, Iran Rebuffs Trump
Well, we'll have to see. You know, Trump has suggested at times that he'll get tough with Moscow through new sanctions if the Kremlin fails to sign on to this deal. But Trump's team has already gone on record also saying no to Ukraine's membership in NATO, no to Ukraine regaining all its territory, and it's put in doubt its commitments to European allies.
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Russia Mulls Ceasefire, EPA Rollbacks, Iran Rebuffs Trump
So you have to think that even if Putin doesn't agree with this ceasefire deal as it's presented now, he'll be looking for ways to present counteroffers and keep the White House engaged.
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Migration and Trade with India, Trump and Putin Chat, Future of Education Department
Good morning, Michelle.
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Migration and Trade with India, Trump and Putin Chat, Future of Education Department
Well, you know, sometimes after calls between leaders, you see the two sides have very different takes on what was discussed, what was agreed upon. That's not the case here. Between Trump's postings on social media and his comments to the press, everything really aligned with what we heard from Moscow.
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Migration and Trade with India, Trump and Putin Chat, Future of Education Department
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov may have issued a more formal readout, but one that made clear these two men are in sync. So here, Peskov says Putin and Trump spoke for a full hour and a half. He went on to say that Trump reiterated his desire to end the war, and Putin agreed that was possible, provided it was a durable peace that addressed the root causes of the conflict.
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Migration and Trade with India, Trump and Putin Chat, Future of Education Department
Now, the spokesman also said Putin agreed with Trump that it was time for the two countries to work together, and the two men agreed to meet in person. Trump says that may happen soon in Saudi Arabia, but the Kremlin said Putin also invited Trump to Moscow. And what was the reaction in Moscow? You know, there's a sense of celebration. The Russian markets went up this morning.
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Migration and Trade with India, Trump and Putin Chat, Future of Education Department
This is a complete reversal by the U.S., not just from the politics of the Biden administration, which, after all, spent the past three years trying to isolate Putin, but even from the first days of the Trump administration. Trump threatened massive new sanctions on Putin to force him to the negotiating table.
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Migration and Trade with India, Trump and Putin Chat, Future of Education Department
That more aggressive tone by Trump was gone completely yesterday, and it's still unclear what led to the change.
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Migration and Trade with India, Trump and Putin Chat, Future of Education Department
Yeah, you know, Trump said he called Zelensky directly after speaking with Putin and brought him up to speed. But this was clearly not a good day for Ukraine. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Europe delivered a speech to NATO allies in which he said the U.S. believed it was unrealistic for Ukraine to regain its pre-war borders.
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Migration and Trade with India, Trump and Putin Chat, Future of Education Department
He also ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine, two key demands Putin has made repeatedly for a negotiated settlement. Meanwhile, it didn't help Zelensky to also hear Trump suggest Zelensky might not be around politically when and if elections are held in Ukraine. It just gave the feeling that Trump thinks Zelensky, not Putin, is the one who's the obstacle to peace here.
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Migration and Trade with India, Trump and Putin Chat, Future of Education Department
Yeah. In exchange for Fogel, the U.S. is releasing Alexander Vinnick. He's a Russian cryptocurrency trader who'd been convicted of money laundering charges in the U.S. You know, clearly this is good news for the Fogel family. It's also clearly a diplomatic sweetener. You know, both sides have made clear this was a trust building gesture as the U.S. and Russia pursue a large deal over Ukraine.
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Migration and Trade with India, Trump and Putin Chat, Future of Education Department
But there's plenty that could still go wrong. I mean, particularly, I think, around the optics of seeming weak in negotiations between whether it's Trump appearing to sideline Ukraine and reward Russian aggression, or for that matter, Putin allowing Trump and the U.S. to play sheriff and impose an end to the conflict. You know, that could be a hard sell for either side to bring us a win.
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Migration and Trade with India, Trump and Putin Chat, Future of Education Department
Thanks, Michelle.