Benham Ben-Taliblu
Appearances
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
Well, I do think there is a strategy here. It's just that there are other strategies as well. I think there's an attempt by the Iranians to rope-a-dope the Americans. I think there's an attempt by Iran's great power partners, the Russians and the Chinese, to magnify the Iranian threat, to suck up all the oxygen in the room and
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
time and political space in Washington deal with a tier three threat and to not be able to deal properly with a tier one threat, which is the likes of China and Russia, in my view.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
But with respect to the things that people have called contradictory in the president's policy and even some of the president's statements and even some of the statements of his advisors, I think I would say, yes, you could see different approaches being taken by different flanks of the Republican Party pretty early on in the Trump administration.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
when it came to technical things like enrichment in Iran be permitted, yes or no. But if you have to plot those divergent statements on a chart, yes, indeed, they did start very scattered, but now they are all very much correlating in one direction. There was a time when former National Security Advisor Mike Waltz was the only one talking about dismantlement.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
and zero enrichment and the Libya model. But now you've had Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. You've had the White House Press Secretary much more recently. You've had President Trump himself. You've had Secretary Rubio, the Secretary of State on multiple occasions bring this up. There is much more administrative cohesion. You've had the special envoy for crying out loud, Steve Witkoff.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
A much more cohesion with respect to statements, with respect to both technical and political end states. for Iran's nuclear program put forward publicly by the US administration.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
At the same time, you've had the Iranians congeal and dig in and double down on the 180 degree exact opposite, which is if America is saying zero enrichment, they're saying no, they want to retain enrichment at all costs. And under this scenario, until you have an exogenous shock, until you have more pressure, the only way you would get a deal
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
is if you have a massive collapse between the public statements of one side, which is at that point, not for strategy, but for face saving and ideology and domestic politics, and the private, acceptable, more narrowly circumscribed red line. So, unless America says,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
no enrichment publicly and says yes enrichment privately or unless Iran says yes enrichment privately but no enrichment public and no enrichment privately and yes enrichment publicly, you are not going to get a deal from these two sides anytime soon. That is at the heart of the matter right now.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
I think they should be concluding pretty soon, at least, you know, late morning, early afternoon, Friday afternoon. today.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
But I do believe that, you know, the Iranians after round three and after round four, once they introduced, once the Americans introduced a technical team into those talks, their talking points and their spin, particularly when you contrast it with round one and round two, has become much more narrower, much more about managing expectations than about playing up the political win and the optics of round one and round two.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
of having been seen as an equal, sitting even though indirectly, of sitting and talking with the Americans. So, I think they understand here that their stylistic strategy is going to be running out of substantive steam. That style has a substance of its own but it doesn't always get to replace substance.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
And if they really do insist on these 180 degree drastically different red lines than the Americans, which are increasingly saying no enrichment on your own soil, then they are beginning to understand it. You see it in their commentary. You see it in their reaction to the new sanctions.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
For example, the spokesperson of Iran's foreign ministry doing a press conference with Iranian media only in front of the
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
facility where the diplomatic negotiations were just about to be held, critiqued the State Department sanctions the other day for going after Iran's construction sector and targeting the trade of at least, I think, 10 different kinds of strategic metals that can bolster the regime's missile, military, drone, and potentially even nuclear programs. So
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
They are much more wary right now of those other growing stocks of the administration, the military stock, the economic stock. And they're seeing too that there will be costs to not delivering or to not changing their position. So, that's why they are trying to ring the alarm bell. They're saying if there's a strike, everybody will be impacted by it.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
They're saying if there's a strike, monitoring verification will be gone. They're saying that they're basically going to hold America responsible for the things that Israel does. They're trying to increase the sense of panic in the West right now. You see that in their statements very much so.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
Well, moderate verification has always been a problem with the Islamic Republic because this regime has been caught red-handed more than 20 some odd years ago, trying to create a nuclear fait accompli. And so, while they have been engaging and opening up significantly compared to where they were in the very early 2000s. The question is, what is it that we don't know?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
Could there be a secret facility? And this fear is, in my view, justified because A, the regime has blocked inspections of military sites in the past, and there is a strong connection between the military and the nuclear program, given that this is not some science fair project. And second, that the regime understands that it actually benefits from this double hourglass effect.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
By growing the nuclear program and diminishing the monitoring, they can again induce panic. And so long as they retain the ability to do that, They will always be in control of the monitoring and verification process. And this is despite them being signatories of the NPT. This is despite code 3.1. This is despite the comprehensive safeguards agreement. And this is despite the additional protocol.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
You know, monitoring and verification is important, but I'm not going to lie, it's technical and it's boring and it's difficult. And it is not as sexy as talking about a potential strike or a potential deal. But deal or no deal, strike or no strike, the way to make sure there is no Iranian nuclear program that has this weapon dimension is 100% transparency, monitoring, and verification.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
You need the IEA to be able to come to a broader conclusion with respect to Iran's nuclear program. They haven't been able to do that still. They still have outstanding questions about certain facilities, about not being able to interview previous Iranian nuclear scientists. So long as you have that, you do not have that cloud of suspicion taken away from the Iranian nuclear program.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
And that's why I think it behooves us to treat this not just as a technical problem, But as a larger political problem, the nuclear threat and this nuclear monitoring verification challenge is just one more challenge we face from this regime, which since 1979 has been saying death to America and remains the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism. This is just the next layer.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
This is just the regime taking the threats and turning it up to 11.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
I think the most important factor there is not us and not the Israelis and not the Iranians, but the Europeans. If in less than six months time, you don't have the Europeans triggering this tool that expires on October 18th, 2025, which is snapback, if you don't have that, then it's likely you have one of two scenarios, either a limited strike or a limited deal in place.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
I can't guess which one is more 51-49 at this moment, but I would say both the Iranians and the Americans have an interest in kind of delaying because they don't like their exit options for political reasons. I certainly think our exit options, you know, ramping up pressure is much more attractive than the regime's exit option, which is having to go full speed for a nuclear weapon.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
But I think politically, there is less of an appetite for entertaining a cycle of violence and conflict in Washington at the moment. And therefore, despite me saying 51-49 deal, limited strike, if no snapback, I think both sides could find a way to limp along and continue talks despite both of them not budging on their red lines. Okay.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
Well, how the information may have gotten out from the White House to the press, you know, my Occam's razor approach or the simplest explanation is the most likely is this the same way that other information that the U.S. government sometimes more political, sometimes more policy, sometimes more classified or
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
high-level compartmentalized intelligence information gets out which is it's a leak from a human individual who happens to know a reporter and wants that particular story out there because they play sometimes the Washington folks call an inside-outside game whereas when they have a certain amount of exposure
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
to a topic or to an issue that generates a certain kind of public backlash that allows folks within the administration and within the kind of, I don't like to use the word deep state, but within the more long-standing civil service bureaucracy, the room for maneuver to ride on top of the sentiment reacting to that story to achieve the policy processes that they may have wanted to.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
Again, I have no insight as to if this was the way or if there was a different way
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
that some of this information got out there about the administration seeing the Israelis getting ready for a strike basically deal or no deal but to me also having read that story the first time I pushed away from the table on it and said even though I'm reading this for the first time this is really an evergreen story because I think the Israelis mean what they say when they say they won't let the Islamic Republic of Iran get a nuclear weapon
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
They're a country that does have a very advanced air force. You saw that specifically against the Iranian threat, both in April and in October of last year, when they retaliated against Iran's missile barrages.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
And you've seen in history over the past 40, 50 years, where there have been a whole host of operations involving the Israeli air force, not just in counter-proliferation ways, but other ways where they've really confounded expectations that do exist in the open source about what they can and cannot do.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
And so, layering all of this on together, I think, yeah, this is a snapshot, but a snapshot of a story we've seen over time, which is there are always folks in various administrations, left and right, that always tend to leak to press sources. There's always people within the civil service bureaucracy who benefit from those leaks.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
But as to this specific topic, yeah, the Israelis have always been training and probably will always continue to train so long as there is Islamic Republic of Iran that is interested in getting a nuclear weapon.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
Well, I think if you're going off of 2024, which was a historic year for the Israeli-Iran rivalry, both in terms of what the regime launched, as well as how and where and using what ordinances the Israelis responded, I think A, that thing I said before about the Israelis being able to pound expectations and having certain assets in reserve holds true.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
But if I had to do kind of the open source macro assessment, I think today in 2025, the Israelis can destroy any above ground facility in the Islamic Republic of Iran today on their own. An above ground facility could be a political entity, it could be a military base, it could be a production facility for drones or missiles, it could be a radar installation, it could even be an above ground
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
reactor or nuclear storage facility. What they cannot destroy is two or three facilities, one of the facilities being underground at Natanz, one of the other facilities being much, much more deeper underground at Fordow, and the third facility being constructed on the outskirts of Natanz at Kuhikwalang or Pickaxe Mountain, which the Iranians say will be a centrifuge production.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
site in the future, but heaven forbid it becomes an enrichment site in the future. Those are things that without, I think, the heavy bombers that countries like the United States of America has, without some of the munitions that you can drop, those GBUs, I forget which number 38 or 57, the massive ordnance penetrator, as well as some of the other heavier conventional bombs like the U.S.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
has dropped in Afghanistan. I'm thinking the Moab of 2017. Without those that can really explode and tunnel and penetrate much, much deeper than the, you know, 500-pound or 2,000-pound bunker buster bombs that you've seen the Israelis use to the north and south against Hezbollah and against Hamas, you will need America.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
which is why this debate about Israel's right to respond is not a debate that exists in isolation. It's a debate that exists very much at the heart of U.S. national security policy.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
You know, I think this is a very kaleidoscopic scenario. It depends on the intelligence, it depends on the sourcing, it depends on the nature of the talks. It depends on, I would even say with respect, the view of the president towards the Iranian threat that day or at that point in time.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
Whether he feels like he has the backing of not just his party and not just the Congress but the vast majority of the American people. Will the president have been able to show the American people that there was more than a good faith effort to reach some kind of diplomatic resolution to the Iranian nuclear crisis?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
I'm sure the president and his team in Washington are going through, even right now, in the absence of the strike being dangled, all of those things with round five of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks underway or wrapping up in Rome right now. So, those are all factors that can impact and create push or pull factors. But ultimately, I would say, would the regime be shooting itself in the foot?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
Because one fear that I have is they get a lot more by staying at the table. And if the only way the US goes militarily at the Iranians is if the Iranians are no longer at the table, well, then the Iranians can come to the table and just read a whole host of grievances. and filibuster and just kind of gain from the optics of being there without really providing any concessions.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
That would make it a lot harder for, I think, the Trump administration to back an Israeli strike. And it also depends a lot on phasing. Would the Americans want Israel to go first, then America to play defense and then take out what is left? Or would the Israelis want a joint strike? Or would the Israelis want a retaliatory strike only in the instance of Iranians directly responding to Israel?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
Or what if the Iranians ride in the fronts and go after US assets or the jurisdictions from certain sites, from where certain things were launched? Again, this is very much like a kaleidoscope. We know the facts.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
We know the positions of people, but based on the context, when you turn it, that image turns drastically differently and there is as much politics in this question as there is policy in this question.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
and that gives them top cover then to uh you know switch to the the military option i would honestly i would say it exists but it exists in the universe of it being a non-zero number meaning i probably put the chances of that in the single digits or very very low double digits
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
I think the president means what he says and he's been pretty clear at least on this front of he does not want the Islamic Republic to get a nuclear weapon but even when he was campaigning before term one, his whole thing was about making deals even in places where potentially that might not be possible or hard or feasible or where it may come with political constraints.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
You know, his line was back then and it remains true today, I buy bad deals, I make them good deals. You know, you saw that with North Korea. But with North Korea, he learned and when there was really no chance, he was willing to walk away. Now, that didn't convince a larger war and didn't lead to a larger strike.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
But I think with respect to the Islamic Republic of Iran, the president has said that he doesn't want to have to do the military option. but he's willing to at least put it on the table and make it meaningful over time. So, I think every threat with respect to this president, every option with respect to this president is credible.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
And if that, you know, five months out, I had to judge the Trump administration's Iran policy, I would say they're trying to go a mile wide and an inch deep on everything.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
So even though you heard this line back starting from President George W. Bush when he said all options are on the table, when you look at literally everything that President Trump has been doing, he has literally been putting stock behind every single option, military, economic with the sanctions, for example, political, diplomatic even.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
by engaging in these direct or indirect, depending on who you believe, bilateral conversations with Iranians. So he is every element, diplomatic, informational, military, economic, trying to create an element that this is Iran policy. think he's trying to provoke a reaction. He's trying to see where the Iranians are responding.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
And right now, the Iranians are responding primarily in the diplomatic or political domain. They're trying to test him. They're trying to buy time. But now, it behooves him to grow the stock beyond just an HD of those economic and of those military options. And if I had to advise him right now, I would say,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
One thing that you got to trim with respect is the positive rhetoric or the optimism that the most powerful person in the world injects into these talks, which is when the president says, I want them to go well, I think they're going well, looks like they're going well.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
The Iranian currency, the rial, has appreciated, meaning improved about 20% since talks started just because of this slightly more different changing positive atmosphere. The president has gone after three refineries in China going after Iranian oil while talking to the Iranians. This is stuff President Obama or President Biden never did.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
And yet still, Iranian exports are flatlined at 1.5, 1.6, 1.7 million barrels a day, depending on who you ask. So, there is going to have to be more done to make the Iranians feel the pain. But long story short, I don't just see this as the president ticking a box. and rushing through things.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 24th, 2025: U.S. Intel: Israeli Strike Incoming & Trump Reveals The Golden Dome
I think this is consistent with how he sees the Iranian threat, consistent with his options, consistent with what he campaigned on multiple times before the American public. And he is trying to square peg round hole this because the Islamic Republic is trying to raise the cost and the US is trying to limit the cost. And nary the two shall meet.