Avi Loeb

However, here, if we ever encounter alien technology, everything will change.

It will affect the financial markets.

It will affect politics in a major way.

So my point is simple.

This is different than other scientific matters.

And the intelligence agencies know very well.

that events with very small probability have to be considered seriously because they could have major implications.

Just think about October 7th.

The Israeli intelligence agencies had a theory that the Hamas will do nothing.

And they got data that indicated something is going on out there, but they dismissed it because of their theory.

Now, because as a result of their mistake, which was clearly a blunder, a lot of people died on both sides.

that this could have been avoided if they were to consider a black swan event, an event that you put a small probability for it happening, but you look at anomalies in the data and say, look, the implications are so huge, we have to consider it.

And, you know, this idea was already considered by the philosopher mathematician Blaise Pascal.

He talked about God.

And he said, look,

Of course, you might think that God doesn't exist.

The probability for that is small.

But the implications, if God exists, the implications are so huge that we have to discuss it.

That was the argument, Pascal's wager.

And the intelligence agencies know that.