Andrei Illarionov
Appearances
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
For Trump, Ukraine is irrelevant. Ukraine does not exist in these calculations at all. Because from this point of view, Ukraine belongs to the Russian sphere of influence. And that is why the business of Mr. Trump is just to silence Ukraine as much as possible. To silence Zelensky, to silence anyone.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Once again, it is more than 20 points that coincide almost word by word. Which means, sorry, which means that it is striking, I agree with you that it is striking, that the type of thinking, the type of conscious, almost identical of these two persons, because he was talking exactly about that. He was talking about Poland, Hitler. Yes. As Putin was talking about Ukraine.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Hitler was talking about the Polish corridor exactly as Putin was talking about Crimea and Northern Tauria. Hitler was talking about the whatever. humiliation that Germans experiencing on the Polish rule, exactly as Putin was talking about the Russians experiencing humiliation on the so-called Ukrainian rule, and so on and so on.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And he also explained his vision for the rest of the world there as well, and about the idea how to divide and, first of all, Europe, between big powers, between really big powers. But back then, he suggested to Neville Chamberlain, let's divide Europe. I fully understand your interest. I fully understand that you're a great power. the kind of British Empire. I'm not going to fight with you.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Let's divide the world. Let's divide Europe between us. What Putin was suggesting back in the year 2014 and after that many times in 2015 and so on, Back then to Obama, and after that now to Trump. Okay, let's divide the world. Let's divide Europe. So you have your interest somewhere else. I fully respect your interest. But this is not your interest. No, okay, let's divide it. Let's give it to me.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
That is exactly essence of Putin, that completely repeating not only Stalin's approach back then, but Hitler's approach. And nobody should be shocked about that. This is just fact. This is reality. You can check yourself. And anyone who watches us right now can take this text and read and make this conclusion.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
and you are not only kind of very popular and it's a fact of life, but you happen to be one of very few voices in English-speaking world that, from my point of view, continue to speak truth, unlike many other voices that somehow stopped to do it or have been under influence from Putin's slash Kremlin propaganda.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Right. This is it. We're coming probably to one of the most important part of our conversation. I don't know what else we can discuss, but this is probably most important. But before moving that, at least I need to say that we can see what Trump himself doing and what his administration is doing domestically within the United States. Almost all, or at least definitely a lot, I would support.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Because I think it's absolutely reasonable, absolutely right, absolutely correct. Just defense from the invasion through southern border. Absolutely correct. Restoration of freedom of speech. Wonderful. All this elimination of this, whatever it was, DIA, just all this workism and so on are absolutely necessary. There are many other things that Trump administration is doing is absolutely correct.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And it's just I fully support it. But when we're coming to the foreign policy or international relation, this is a shock because it is not expected certainly by me. It is not expected by many other people. Actually, I never met anyone who understood it.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And, for example, Mayor Ferguson, whom you definitely know, so he himself said several times over the last several weeks that he never met any person in Europe who understands the Trump policy towards Europe. an international policy. So now we're coming to the most important element, I hope, in our discussion and probably of the current days, weeks, and months. So what is the policy of Mr. Trump?
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
What is his actual vision based on which he's trying to implement some policies? And my understanding that it's not an appeasement because for Mr. Chamberlain, it was an appeasement because Mr. Chamberlain was a person coming from the First World War. in which Britain, France, and other countries lost a lot of people.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And that is why they understood that there is nothing worse than the war in which hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people have been killed without any reasonable explanation, whatever. So that is why their position was to avoid war at any cost. And that is why they tried to appease until some point, because after some point, even Chamberlain has changed his position.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
It was Chamberlain who announced, who pronounced the war against Germany, against Nazi Germany after invasion into Poland. It was not Churchill. Churchill came later. So that is why even Chamberlain understood that it was mistake of his position before, and he has changed his mind, and he has changed his position, and he brought Britain into this war, to this absolute evil, right?
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So, but coming to Mr. Trump, whether we have here imprisonment, I would try to find different words, but definitely it reminds appeasement policy of the late 1930s in Europe. Because the position of Trump, as I understand it, especially now after these two months of his administration, is a different one.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Mr. Chamberlain was not in a position to divide the world or Europe with Hitler or with Stalin. It was not his position. Mr. Trump's position is exactly that. He is looking for strategic alliance with China. Or, sorry, he's looking for strategic alliance against China. Because he considers China the most important enemy of the United States.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And I can name only kind of three sources that I follow that at least continue to talk about war, that Putin is waging against Ukraine, about Russia, about Ukraine, about many other things. Just first of all, you, I would say Douglas Murray, and I would say Piers Morgan. Also, from time to time, he's trying to sort of keep the line. And to my...
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
It was his position back in the first term and now terms. And he understands that the resources and capabilities of the United States are limited. Europe is not a big ally in this potential battle with China. So that is why he's looking for potential allies.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
With all due respect to other allies whom Mr. Biden tried to put into whatever the Quad organization, he does not consider them as serious resource. So that is why he's looking for Russia. And that is why he has arrived to idea, as I understand him once again, that Russia might play a role, whatever, deterrent, ally, whatever, for deterrent against China, ally to the United States.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So he's trying to play the so-called Nixon's policy vice versa. So Nixon's Kissinger policy was just to take China out of the Soviet Union, to put them against, and that is why to deal with what they had considered the... Goal number one, the Soviet Union. So now Trump is, once again, as I understand him, he's trying to reverse this game. He will try, we know that Trump likes Nixon very much.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
He considered, to some extent, his successor in policy. He's trying to, some kind of, to take Russia out of China, to explode in the long-term battle against China.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Francis, I would just generally agree with what you're saying. It's not second. It's irrelevant. For Trump, Ukraine, Ukrainian people, everything is irrelevant. This is easier said than done. something very easy stuff, or you use porn, whatever, that can be given to Putin and actually must be given to Putin to satisfy him and just to lure him into the so-called alliance with Trump.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So that is why for him it is absolutely, I would say, just cynical, but in the world of politics it's regular stuff. It's absolutely cynical. Ukraine means nothing for Trump.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
It's a kind of real politics as they're discussing.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Yes, it's a great power. So that is why Mr. Vitkov in his recent interview easily has said okay the Ukraine is a false country he repeated what has been said by uh by Putin this is what I was going to ask you about so sorry just just to say it is important to underscore that Ukraine fate of Ukraine and not only fate of Ukraine fate of Europe Ukraine does not exist at all.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Europe may be secondary, as I would use your terminology, but Ukraine does not exist in these calculations at all. Because from this point of view, Ukraine belongs to the Russian sphere of influence, Russian sphere of control. And that is why the business of Mr. Trump... is just to silence Ukraine as much as possible.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
To silence Zelensky, to silence anyone who... Because it's a problem not of Zelensky, it's a problem of the very existence of Ukraine. So... it is not relevant for Trump at all. So that is why by giving this gift to Putin, Trump is hoping that he would be able to create a new alliance with Putin, or at least to try to get him from China, and that is why to deal with China.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
observation uh all of you coming from britain and i just uh why those only british voices but not american voices it's it's another topic for discussion for me but it is shocking for me i would not hide this uh my feeling that um
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So I'm just, it's another story how it is mistaking, that it is impossible to achieve. That's another story. But we're not talking about whether it's possible or not. But we're trying to reconstruct his conscience, his ideas, his mindset, and what we have seen and what we have watched over the last two months. We arrived to this conclusion.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And not by Khrushchev, by the way. It was in time of Khrushchev, but not by Khrushchev himself, because the decision had been taken by Stalin. But Stalin died by that time, and so it was only in time of Khrushchev they fulfilled this. And it's not because of the Ukrainian-Russian relation, but because of economic issues of restoration of Crimea after the war.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
That's an interesting different story, but it's completely misguided and completely falsified in the English-speaking media. Nobody's talking about that.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
First of all, the fact of unbelievable incompetence and outright ignorance of the facts on the ground. But because he had been appointed to this position back then, whatever, in November or December, so he had at least some time to accumulate this knowledge. But it's clear that he's not interested in that.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So because just it's not a very big business to just to have two clicks and to find out what is the ethnicity of Mr. Khrushchev. It's just English speaking Wikipedia is telling it's openly that just it's not a rocket science. So that is why. And by the way, the question is, he bragged. I mean, just Mr. Vitkov bragged that he spent almost eight hours with Putin.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
just to produce an impression on his English-speaking listeners. But the question is very simple. How many seconds he spent with Ukrainians? And the answer is very clear, zero.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
many, if not almost all, American voices either became silent or started to reproduce Putin's slash Kremlin propaganda, especially concerning Ukraine, concerning Putin's aggression against Ukraine, concerning Putin's policy, and so on. So that is why it's quite shocking. It's quite discouraging. And I would like to thank you for at least keeping this line.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So that is why how he could be any envoy on these particular issues if he is listening to only one side, being completely ignorant in these issues, never been neither before these travelers, it seems to me, never been to Russia, never been to Ukraine. understanding nothing about the story, about history, about international relations, about security.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
He admitted just in the last interview that he has been duped by Hamas. Okay, so just he's on such an age that it's kind of demonstrating such a quality is just only confirming that he is not suited for this job. before just the people on the other side, for example, on the Russian side, that people spend all life, sometimes 40 years, sometimes 50 years, studying these issues.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
They are incomparable, or he's incomparable to them. So that is why to manipulate him that he says that this is impossible, it is easy because he's from kindergarten. He does not understand anything about that. Just you mentioned a couple of cases, but there is not only these cases versus Ukraine or versus these regions or versus Khrushchev or versus what's going on.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
But just he said just, OK, if Iran, whatever, just he was talking about on different topics that a plan of President Trump would be implemented. So Iran would come back to international community and Iran would join League of Nations. It's on record. It's on record in this interview and in its transcript. So that is why, what are we talking about?
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
It's not about whatever the names of the four or five Ukrainian regions partially occupied by Russian troops. It's about basic knowledge about the current world. It's not about United Nations. It's about League of Nations. So that is why, once again, we are dealing with a problem.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Certainly, we have incompetence, we have ignorance, and we have a kind of, if people of such level, incompetent, ignorant, it's not a very big business to manipulate them. especially by those who spent all their life in that particular profession.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
That's exactly the point, because the support that Mr. Vitkov has received from Mr. Vents confirmed this idea. Logic. Because for them, it is not important. That's irrelevant. What is going on in Ukraine, whether five regions or 15 regions or 50 regions, doesn't matter at all. Because for them, they have as a kind of the main goal.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
The main goal, and by the way, Mr. Vitkov was some kind of courageous enough to explain, the main goal is to have friendship with Russia. to have business with Russia, to have economic relations. Let's have energy projects. Let's have projects in Arctic. Let's have a project in artificial intelligence. Let's have projects in technologies.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Let's have everything just to bring Russia together, closer to the United States, regardless what price must be paid for that. Because for them, this is a... Thank you.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
and continue your stance and support for truth. So that is why I think it would be useful if we can talk about those issues objectively, openly, honestly. Even some people might not like what we can talk.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Why Western Germany became such an economic miracle, success and so on? Because U.S. troops were on the ground, boots on the ground, and Western Germany became a member of NATO. Why Albania, the poorest country in Europe? became now the economic tiger over the last quarter of a century because of American troops on the ground and because Albania became a member of NATO. It's only one way.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
First of all, security guarantees in the form of U.S. troops or military alliance like NATO that can guarantee potential participation of U.S. troops and other troops and only after that economic success. There is no economic success without security guarantees. Just one example. You know what example? Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump himself.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Before he became US president, even the first time, he was a very well-known kind of real estate developer in the United States. He was interested in participating in different projects around the world. He was considering the participation in Russia. He was even traveling to Moscow looking for potential acquiring a hotel or maybe some other assets.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Back then, in 2012, if I'm not mistaken, what his decision was too risky. It was him, Mr. Trump, who... was not courageous enough to invest in Russia in 2012, before occupation and annexation of Crimea, before this full-scale intervention against Ukraine. He himself taking the correct decision because he understands and he understood that this is too dangerous.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Now, first of all, I would say, so just you're keeping the line because this line to talk truth. But what you saw was your own eyes, what you understand yourself, not what Kremlin wants us to repeat. So that is why this is a line. So I'm trying to my extent to do exactly the same. So that is why... what exactly I have in mind when I'm saying that just keep the line.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
For himself, he understands this is dangerous. Why does he think that other people would be so stupid that would invest in the country that does not have security guarantees?
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
This is a kindergarten. I'm really sorry to say so. There is no economic success without security guarantees. Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, he said publicly, on record, seems to be he knows something, that the total military output of all NATO countries combined is 25% of Russian military output. Four times less.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Let me answer to your question with kind of another question to you. In 1948, on May 14th, if I'm not mistaken, there was a proclamation of independence of Israel. Immediately, armies of five countries intervened into Israel with a very clear goal. It had been pronounced destruction of Israel and physical elimination of Jews on their territory to push them into the sea. We all know that.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And Israel was alone. Israel was not a member of NATO and still not a member of NATO. There was no allies. And for Israelis, there was no way how to fight back, just only one way, because it's a way for survival. And they are still in the same position for almost 80 years in a row. And they have regular attacks on them.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Recently, we all know this October 7th, and after that, just from Hamas and from Hezbollah and from Houthis and from Iran and so on, and they're fighting for their survival. So, but back then in 1948, somebody would say, okay, is it end of Israel? Yes, maybe they already decided, but Golda Meir...
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
told his American colleagues when she was traveling through the United States collecting money for defense of Israel. If you give us money, we will use this money to defend ourselves. If you would not give us money, we will defend ourselves even with our fists, without weapons. But we will never surrender. Actually, he borrowed this phrase from Winston Churchill.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
former United Kingdom prime minister, who said in the darkest hour back in June 1940, we will fight on the sea, we'll fight on dunes, we will fight everywhere. And even in this However, I would say almost an inconceivable case that we would need to evacuate islands, meaning probably the royal family, maybe general staff, maybe army, probably to Canada from the islands.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
We would never stop to fight. We will fight until we will win. We shall never surrender. What Mr. Churchill said back in 1940, what Golda Myrvold said, In the late 40s, there is only one way for Ukrainians to fight. And they should never surrender, because if they surrender, they will be subjugated.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
You know who... most, what is the highest ratio of people being killed during these three years of full-scale aggression of Putin against Ukraine?
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
We have a statistic, certainly it's not full, some kind of estimates, but nevertheless, several organizations are doing this research. BBC, Meduza, MediaZone, some other, there is estimation for different regions of Russia. And we know, that's a fact of life, that the highest, the lowest rate of conscription and certainly being killed among Moscovites, among people from St.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
As for your observation, so you put this kind of time pause, two, three weeks. Sometimes these posts could be different. For example, Putin for almost a year was talking about the Zelensky dictator. So he started to talk it from the last June. And all of a sudden, exactly the same words have been repeated by Mr. Trump. So, and when somebody mentioned, okay, so is it kind of Kremlin's propaganda?
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Petersburg, and from Chechnya, Chechen Republic, because it's a favorite region of Mr. Putin, certainly Moscow and St. Petersburg, just to preserve political stability in the capitals, and Chechnya because of his special relations with this Lord Kadyrov in Chechnya Republic.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
But the highest rate of people being conscripted and then killed in ethnic regions of Russia, like Buryatia or some Dagestan or some other, or some poor Russian regions, because the political weight of which is not very substantial. But the highest rate of people being conscripted and then killed, not there, not even Buryatia, the seven times higher the rate,
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
were in same regions that Mr. Vitkov was not able to recall, in Luhansk and Donetsk. Because those Ukrainians who happened to be on occupied territories from year 2014, occupied by Putin, they have been forcefully conscripted to the so-called Russian army or whatever, popular militia, people's militia, whatever, and they're now part of the Russian army.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
They have been used as a meat fodder or whatever. Meat grinder. Meat grinder. Cannon fodder. Yeah, cannon fodder against Ukrainians. And the rate of people being killed seven times higher than in the worst Russian region. So that gives everybody indication what would happen to Ukrainians who would decide, or it's so many Ukrainian soldiers being killed. That is why we cannot tolerate anymore.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
We need to have some kind of peace or ceasefire. Let's have a peace with Putin. Okay, this territory will be taken by Putin and those people will be conscripted and be used against either Ukrainians or Europeans. That's a tradition.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
This is a technology of imperial power to conquer the new territory, to conscript these people from this territory, and to use it for new imperial aggressions and for new conquest. That's exactly what has been used by the Russian Empire through the whole history. That's exactly what has been done by Soviet regime, by Stalin's regime. When Stalin attacked Poland,
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Eastern Poland in 1939 and occupied so-called Western Ukraine and Western Belarus. Those people who lived there, they had been immediately conscripted into the Red Army, and they have been used as a... Cannon fodder. Cannon fodder, exactly. And the first one was in Soviet-Finnish War, the so-called Winter War. In 1939-1940, the heaviest losses were for divisions formed from Ukrainians.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
in the western part of the country immediately. So that is why now those who are so calling for, okay, let's have ceasefire because we need to keep Ukrainians from being killed. This is an invitation to kill Ukrainians at much higher industrial scale, incomparably higher than it is today. So right now, the armed forces of Ukraine is the only available security guarantee
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
for Ukraine itself, for Ukrainian civilian population. This is the only one. So the Ukrainian leadership, whatever, Zelensky, whoever, they're talking about some additional security guarantees like NATO membership or military alliance or whatever, long-term missiles, or let's say it's kind of the weapon that have been taken from Ukraine in 1994 due to Budapest memorandum.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
But that was a deterrent. That was a security guarantee against aggression. If there is no such a security guarantee, that is why the only one security guarantee left for Ukrainians is armed forces of Ukraine. And Putin understands this very well. That is why his idea is to destroy Ukraine. army of Ukraine.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
That is why he's talking about the stop of military aid, stop of flow of intelligence information, stop of all efforts to fill the ranks of the armed forces of Ukraine. So Putin is smart compared to his partners from the other side.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Oh, it's up to me who I am. Just tell me the position.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Exactly. Because now it's absolutely clear that in this new geopolitical environment, this is absolutely this tectonical shift. It's not even the volcano eruption. This is an earthquake in international relations, in the security entourage, whatever. Just something that we did not have for the last 80 years.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
He said, no, no, it is my own understanding. Okay, so just probably Mr. Trump didn't know that Mr. Putin was talking about it for whatever nine months prior to that, but this effect of life. And after that, when Mr. Trump has repeated the story that, okay, Mr. Biden did not call me
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Actually, even longer from the signing of the Atlantic Charter by Churchill and Roosevelt back in August 1941. So that is why it's absolutely clear that Europe is alone without the United States. So that is why Europe must decide.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So whether Europe will try to defend itself, including Ukraine, because it's part of Europe, and actually with the largest, strongest, the most powerful army on the continent, or not. If not, it means that immediately Europe will find itself in a much, much, much weaker position
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Once again, we are talking about this much more powerful army on the east with readiness to attack anyone from the Baltic countries, whatever, until the 97th division line or whatever, just without any resources that Europe can provide.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Look, nuclear weapons is a very important stuff. But first of all, there are only two countries now, Britain and France. And the number of those assets is smaller than Russia has. It's one. Second, it means it immediately poses the question about the spreading of nuclear weapons around the world. Because in this new situation, because the Budapest Memorandum was a
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
instrument that could show to the rest of the world that it is possible to have international agreements that countries would not acquire nuclear weapons and at the same time won't be attacked. This experiment failed dramatically, openly. That's the only lesson that anyone could learn from this experience, that it is absolute necessity to acquire nuclear weapons.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
This is the only deterrent that can be used from any potential aggression.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So that is why Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Turkey, Iran, South Korea, Taiwan, many other countries, come on, If those international institutions are irrelevant and became irrelevant because the big, the great powers like the United States First of all, the United States just made them irrelevant. So the only way how can we defend ourselves is just to acquire nuclear weapons.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So that is why this is the strongest argument for spreading nuclear weapons around the world.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
No, it's absolutely necessary. That is why I understand that now Brits and French are talking with Germans, because the very obvious first step is just nuclearization of Germany. Nobody would think about after the Second World War, and the person who made it possible, even just thinking and conversations, and I... could not exclude that will be actions is just the current US administration.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
did not talk to putin for three and a half years which is clearly uh not true because the last conversation between biden and uh and putin was on december 30th 21 so that is why assuming his term in the office it's in the very best case three years and the three years when uh trump said so
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Nuclearization of Germany, nuclearization of Poland, nuclearization of Ukraine, nuclearization of many other countries, including nuclearization of Iran. Because what would be the best way to deter anyone, including the United States, from attacking Iran is just nuclear weapons.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
No, because right now the French nuclear is being used for defense of France. British nuclear weapons is just for Britain, not for the whole continent, because the nuclear deterrent and nuclear umbrella for the whole continent was provided by the United States. Now, only if this umbrella is being taken away, some new question appeared. Who would defend the whole European continent?
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And that is the subject of discussions that are going right now everywhere. So that is why we don't know what will be the result. I cannot exclude some potential outcome that we touched a little bit on. But it means that it means much faster immediate spread of these nuclear technologies and missile technologies.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And it is exactly what Putin so officially proclaimed that he's not interested or some kind of he's so-called afraid that missiles would be placed on Ukrainian territory. Ukrainians never thought about that. It was only an imagination of Putin. But now it will be self-fulfilled prophecy because it's exactly the way how Ukrainians could defend themselves.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So that is why we cannot forecast everything that might happen, but just it is absolutely clear that Ukrainians would be acquire or produce themselves with potential collaboration, however, just the crucial technologies, military capabilities that are necessary for their defense. and for the defense of the European continent. This is the only way to do it. And the same story for Europe.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And just recently, three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, some kind of work out from Otava Protocol for landmines. Absolutely clear, because they are not interested in being attacked and subjugated by forces from the east. So that is why they're digging and building the fortresses, fortifications on the eastern border.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
That is why Finns are doing a lot for strengthening their defense. And there's also a necessary step, an obvious step, is with just formation of new military alliance. either within NATO or outside of NATO, or partially NATO outside of NATO, among so-called front states.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Front states, which is Ukraine, Poland, Baltic countries, Finland, might be Sweden, might be Norway, might be Denmark, with Brits or not, Brits, depends. But for them, it became issue of survival, which did not exist three years ago. Because three years ago, and over the last three years,
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
But a few days later, Mr. Vitkov has repeated this story that it was Mr. Putin told him, Vitkov, that Biden did not talk to Putin for three and a half years. So now we all of a sudden found this line of communications. So first of all, Putin told Vitkov, Vitkov told Trump, and Trump repeated the lie that Putin told Vitkov and has been transferred to Trump.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
It was a general understanding that in a time of very substantial European crisis or international crisis, United States might come or will come for support. Now nobody has such a belief. No, that belief is completely undermined. And that is why they need to do something themselves.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Francis, I completely agree with your observation, but I would probably make it even worse because I'm trying to use not only emotions, but also facts. Just several facts. Last year, about a year ago, there was a publication from the military sources here in the United States that was saying that United States, not only UK, United States is producing artillery shells
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
155 millimeters caliber, three times less than Russia. Once again, US versus Russia. GDP of the United States, they claim that maybe 10 times more than Russian GDP, but the output of artillery shells, three times more in Russia. than in the United States. You know how many artillery shells United States sent to Ukraine during the three years of war? I know, I just following these events.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Three million. You know how many artillery shells North Korea gave to Putin during 1.5, one and a half years, so twice shorter? Six million. So North Korea gave Putin twice more artillery shells of high caliber, 152, 155 millimeters, then United States to Ukraine. And now United States signal they have stocks are empty. They cannot give more. Just think about that.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
It's not even comparing United States towards Russia, but United States towards North Korea. Three years ago, nobody who would say something that will not be considered a sane person because it's absolutely out of any understanding. But this is only beginning. Just together, United States in Europe output of artillery shells today is less.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
It's about 54%, if I recall correctly, of the output of artillery shells in Russia alone. So just essentially NATO countries. Putin, back in November last year, in Bishkek, if I'm not mistaken, had said publicly that Russian output of missiles, of all missiles, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, is 10 times more than NATO combined.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And he added that this year, next year, because he was talking last November, so in 25, so this output would increase 30, 35% more. So we can take cautiously Putin's words because it might be propaganda as well, but nevertheless, we need to see this. But now we move to Mark Rutte. former Prime Minister of the Netherlands and now the Secretary General of NATO.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And his talk at Munich conference on security last month, what he said? He said publicly on record, seems to me he knows something, that the total military output of all NATO countries combined is 25% of Russian military output. Four times less. So that is why what you are talking about, about UK, you're right. And your observation has been confirmed by number of publications, facts, and so on.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So what conclusions might be made from these facts and numbers? One option is to surrender. It will be peace. Like on the cemetery. It's not only for Ukraine, it will be for UK, for the whole Europe. Or the different approach. Your former Prime Minister, Mr Churchill, reminded us that he can promise on only whatever.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So that is why these lines of communications or timescale could be different. But you're absolutely right that all of a sudden we found situations that I cannot recall that Putin slash Kremlin slash Russian propaganda have been repeated and spread out in English-speaking world at the level unseen and unheard before.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Exactly. But this is a very clear challenge. And that is why up to European countries, up to UK, up to the United States, is it to take this challenge or to surrender? So we know the answer from Mr. Churchill, never surrender. Okay, maybe some other generation, maybe some other politicians will take a different approach. We don't know. But we know what can be done in this regard.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And we remember what has happened with the United States back in 1941. U.S. was not yet in the war. when Roosevelt approved this land lease program. And during 1941, before December 7th, before attack on Pearl Harbor, the military output of the United States increased several times. And they started to provide this military ammunition to, first of all, to the United Kingdom.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
and only after that to other participants in this war. So this is a very clear challenge. It's up to the European countries to decide. By the way, just if we go back, not only for European countries and not only for Second World War, Just four years ago, Ukraine, whether Ukraine was wanted, whether it wanted to participate in the war in Russia, no. Look at this. It's unbelievable.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
They were spending on military purposes some kind of less than 2% of GDP. Even they have this war in Donbass. Even the kind of many Ukrainian military personnel have been killed there. All arguments in the Ukrainian society for either Poroshenko government or Zelensky government, let's increase military expenditure. It is absolutely unsustainable. No.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And Poroshenko and Zelensky said, no, no, we are for peace. And Zelensky won his presidential election with the slogan, I will bring peace, exactly like Mr. Chamberlain coming from Munich. So I'm not going to fight. I'm going to have peace. Because what is necessary? Just to stop fighting. Stop shooting. It was his words. What is the level of military expenditures right now in Ukraine?
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
More than 32% of GDP. because there is no way to survive but to spend on security, on defense. So same challenge is in front of European countries. Now Poles spend maybe 4.3%, Lithuanians are promising to increase up to 6% of GDP, but it's incomparable what was level of military expenditures during the Cold War.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
for those four countries of europe or the united states this is a challenge it's a kind of choice either you will be subjugated and you will surrender and that is why another gulag will be built on territory of your countries and your people will be conscripted and killed in your imperial wars or other people who do not like to be there just will be put in gulag or exterminated as a
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
all political elite of Baltic countries or Polish elite or elite in the West of Ukraine or to fight. There is no other way.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
You know... I completely understand your point. In year 2008, when there was a Russian-Georgian war, when Putin put his troops against Georgia and occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgian regions, so Mr. Saakashvili said, the next will be Crimea. I was thinking about that and I said, yes, the next will be Crimea. And from year 2008 to year 2014...
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
I myself, as well as Saakashvili on record, repeated several times, next will be Crimea. I traveled to Ukraine. I was talking to them. They're just, okay, next will be Crimea. People were laughing at me. It's just, people, come on. This guy is absolutely insane. He's completely crazy. Putin is our best friend. Russia is our historical friend for centuries. That cannot happen.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And we, unfortunately, we can hear all the time from such people like Professor Mishimer, Professor Sachs, Tucker Carlson, Vice President J.D. Vance, from the son of the president, Donald Trump Jr., and from President Trump himself. So this is shocking.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And this person is trying to solve some kind of his personal problems with Mr. Putin and so on. In January year 2014, during Maidan, I happened to be in Kiev, and I was on the TV show with 12 of the best Ukrainian experts. And I told them, in January 2014, I said, okay, just watch out. During this Maidan, Putin will go for Crimea. All 12 people, Ukrainians, were just laughing.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Just this person is crazy. On February 20th, one month after our conversation show in Kiev, Putin started operation for occupation and annexation of Crimea. After that, in April, even, yes, in April, it's just early April, it was April 1st or April 2nd, just you can go to my live journal, you'll find this statement that just, in the night of April 6th, Putin will start operation against Donbass.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Why? Because I read what they have written in their website. And people are laughing. From the night of April 6th, Strelkov, Gerkin Strelkov, started this operation for occupation of Slavyansk in this so-called Donbass War. After that, in August of 2014, I said, just, okay, if Ukrainians would not undertake necessary measures immediately, we'll take their people from Ilovaisk.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
they will be stabbed in the back by Russian regular forces. Ukrainians did not do. And after that, Russian forces crossed the border, encircled Ukrainian forces, and killed more than 600 people over there.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So after that, for eight years, from year 2014 to year 2022, I was talking, there will be next operation, full-scale operation against Ukraine, with the purpose to get Kyiv, because the dream of Putin is not Crimea, is not Kherson, is not Donbass, not these five regions, Kyiv. It was his dream that he was telling Ukraine,
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
back in 2003, 2004, that the might of Russian cities must be under his control. Nobody believed in it. It was impossible to believe in it. And after that, we have February 24th, 22. Once again, Golda Meir told us, along with survival from Nazi concentration camps, if somebody tells you regularly that he's going to kill you, trust that person. Be serious. Do not ignore.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Putin is saying for 25 years in a row that he's going to establish control over Europe. It is up to you to trust him or not to trust. I prefer to trust that person that he is serious about his intentions.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Because never before we had a situation when the leadership of the US administration would repeat consistently and persistently something that's completely untrue, completely wrong, and complete propaganda. This information aimed at justification of aggressive behavior of Russia, of Putin, first of all, against Ukraine, against Europe, and against the United States.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
I hope that you would continue what you are doing because, once again, you are a rare voice in the English-speaking world that is at least ready to listen to what became unusual and that not many others are talking about.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And I wish you that would continue such an approach and talking by yourself and giving an opportunity to other people who are ready to talk about which sounds like impossible, but all of a sudden becoming possible.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
against the Western civilization. So Putin never hid it, that his main goal is destruction of Western civilization. He devoted to this goal many, many of his statements. His apparatus, his Kremlin entourage, the whole system of the current Russian government is working to destroy Western civilization, NATO, Europe, United States.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
I can refer you to just many speeches, especially from the speech that he has given on October 5th, year 2023, during the so-called Valdai Club gathering, in which he proclaimed, actually, its public announcement of the global war against the West. And it is a very detailed and very fundamental explanation that the West is doomed.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And his, Putin's goal, together with a big friend and colleague, Mr. Xi from China, and to unite the other countries around the world, so-called multilateral or whatever. Multipolar world. Multipolar world is an old term, but they say this is a global majority. Even they say not global majority, world majority.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
They understand English very well, so that is why they're choosing right words in English to explain their position. So this is a world majority against the West, against... doomed, some kind of decadent West.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And this is some kind of the noble mission of current Russia and current Russian regime under the leadership of Putin with support from Chinese friends to make everything possible that the kind of the days of the West are numbered. And after that, number of people from the Kremlin
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
and from Kremlin on to Russia, issued a number of documents, including those documents that have been produced by such people. I don't know, probably you know those names, like Karaganov or Trenin. Those people from think tanks around Kremlin, they put a number of documents explaining the essence of this global war against the West, led by
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
world majority with the leadership of Russia with Putin at the head. So that is why it's nothing new. It's a very well-detailed, somewhat of a workout plan by the current Russian regime. They never hide it. They talk about it regularly.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Even just a few days ago, already just with the current US administration, Mr. Karaganov again, once again, gave an interview to BBC, I believe, the correspondent of BBC in Moscow, explaining, no, we need to use everything possible just to subjugate Europe.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Now he's trying to kind of, before January 20th, he was talking about kind of the main problem with the United States, actually with Anglo-Saxons, so you don't forget about Brits as well. So they understand Anglo-Saxons as Americans and Brits. Now, within your administration, so they are kind of accurately trying to put aside America. And now talking about Europe with Brits, you are still there.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
So don't worry. So you're still the goal of this regime. So that is why he's not hiding. Yes, he's going. Yes, if it's necessary, we can use whatever possible, whatever resources or whatever instruments, including whatever weapons to reach our goal. It is not about Ukraine. It's not about Zelensky.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
It's not about his behavior in the Oval Office or White House or how he treated the President of the United States or Vice President of the United States. No. It's about an absolutely different story, about the imperial dominance of the Russian regime over Europe. And this is, by the way, it's not a news. It's a long-term policy of Soviet communists to establish dominance over Europe.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
This is actually what's proclaimed by V.I. Lenin back in 1970-1980. This was essentially the goal of the so-called Bolsheviks' march into Europe via Poland to Germany, to Italy, to Hungary. That was exactly what Lenin was talking in summer 1920. And after that, they prepared for this war for 20 years between First World War and Second World War.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And the Second World War was organized by Stalin as a so-called liberation march of Europe. that was successful, but only half successful. Only half of Europe happened to be subjugated by Soviet communism.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And after that, in the late 80s and early 90s, with the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the end of the Cold War, all of a sudden, all these countries that had been liberated themselves from the communism, So they wanted to join Western civilization. So that must be reconsidered. That must be changed. There must be revenge.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And that exactly was the essence of Putin's regime over the last 25 years versus Europe. And he was trying to achieve this for all this period of time. So he never hid it. So that is why it's just only deaf and blind could not see what are the purposes, what are the goals of Putin. So that is why he's doing exactly that.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
No, but it's not why it should be a surprise for you. That's exactly the policy of Putin, what he was doing. Actually, I have analysis of speech that Putin gave to the same Valdai club that I mentioned before back in the year 2014.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
and i recommend you just if you're interested i give you a link to my analysis it's in russian but it's not difficult to translate into english because when i was speaking at some whatever english speaking audience i translated into english and it's available um so it was actually in uh i spoke with atlantic council uh in april 2015 where spread this uh this translation of this speech
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
First of all, thank you, Konstantin. Thank you, Francis, for inviting me once again. It's nice to see you, and I need to confess that I follow your activities, trying to follow what you're doing, how you're doing. It seems to me you've got substantial progress since we met last time. Your subscription rate jumped up, skyrocketed, so now you're stars in the English-speaking world.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
And I put speech of Putin in October year 2014, one part of the page, and the other, the two letters that Adolf Hitler dictated in August 1939 to Mr. Chamberlain. then Prime Minister of United Kingdom. So, and I found that slightly more than 20 points where the words of Putin almost word by word coincide with Hitler's text.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
Sometimes stylistics slightly different, but essence the same, but sometimes word by word. And it is striking because those people, speechwriters in Kremlin, who prepared speech for Putin in October 2014, my suspicion, they never read Kremlin.
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Trump's Deal Will be the End of Ukraine - Andrei Illarionov
hitler because it is not available in russian it is english or german so you can see it and i doubt that even they would read it they would try to emanate what hitler said back in 1939 so they they were writing what they think it's necessary and what would be suitable for putin and putin read it publicly. This is an official public speech, it is still on the Kremlin website.