The Tucker Carlson Show
Ray Dalio: America’s Hidden Civil War, and the Race to Beat China in Tech, Economics, and Academia
Fri, 21 Feb 2025
Ray Dalio on AI, the debt crisis and what actually makes people happy. (00:00) The Hidden Civil War Happening in the US (05:00) What Caused This Mass Polarization? (08:03) Will the Advancement of Tech Destroy Us? (16:44) Ray Dalio’s Predictions About AI (21:09) AI’s Impact on Economics Paid partnerships with: Levels: Get 2 extra months free at https://Levels.Link/Tucker Silencer Central: Promo code Tucker10 for 10% off your purchase of banish suppressors at https://www.silencercentral.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What is the hidden civil war in the United States?
So I've heard you say that the United States is in a civil war, and I think most Americans don't perceive that. Can you tell us what you mean by that?
Well, what I mean by a civil war, I should say a type of civil war, right? And what I mean is that there are irreconcilable differences that each side is willing to fight for. In order to get the outcomes that they want and that in that environment, the issues of how does the legal system work, is that going to stand in the way of that fight or is there going to be a fight that will.
make the cause more important than anything. So that's the type of situation that we're in. And those gaps, we understand there's wealth and values gaps that are entering into this. We've seen this through history. So where that goes is a different question. But we are in that type of civil war, are we not?
Clearly we are. Clearly we are. How are they resolved? I mean, clearly they can be resolved through violence, but what are the other ways you resolve the kind of conflict we have?
Normally, they're resolved through conflict because you get to the point where both sides can't reach agreements. Both sides don't even want to talk. Both sides don't want to respect the rule of the law. So when we're dealing with things like sanctuary city issues and we're dealing with enforceability, who has the enforceability? Okay. And you almost have to play out. Okay.
Enforceability means police forces and such things. Right. People with guns. Yeah. People... People with guns and causes that just because the legal thing says they shouldn't do that, that's not going to stand in the way. We have that kind of a situation. So we are probably past the point of being able to resolve that by compromise and empathy and all of that. So normally it goes that way.
I mean, the only thing that can be done is to have the fear of that. create a necessity for having Another path, you know, like we were talking about the debt situation. Yes. So can can there be a fiscal commission that gets together and then achieves those things or not? I think it's unlikely. I think we're going to more fragmentation states. There are some states and other states.
I think you're going to see more fragmentation. And so but. You know, it's like this dynamic through history. This isn't the first time this happened. This happens repeatedly through history. And usually, you know, it runs its course.
So the way our leaders in the United States have dealt with it over the past 30 years has just been to ignore it. Completely just ignore it.
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Chapter 2: What caused the mass polarization in America?
So now you've gone to greater polarity. If you watch statistics, everything I do comes from measuring things. So I look at statistics. The gap in measuring conservative or liberal votes in the House and the Senate is the greatest gap since 1900. And the voting across party lines...
is the least since 1900 so you see this gap you see it you see it in the elections right the green so uh the blue and red so we're not it's it's not just an evolutionary it's where we are where we have gotten to that is the irreconcilable questions does the supreme court You know, we thought about the Supreme Court differently not long ago, right? The Supreme Court was the Supreme Court.
And so now it's different.
So what accounts, I mean, there are a million ways to measure this and all of them. Do you agree? Well, of course I agree. Of course I agree. And I agree with you that every measurement shows the same result, which is the country is polarized.
So we know where we are.
Completely. And we're not sure how it's resolved. But I think it's also worth pausing to ask, what was the change that led to the polarization that was unimaginable even 35 years ago? Um.
The change was in a combination of the system working well for the majority of the people and which has to do with the majority of the people not being productive. You have productivity equals income. Right. Okay.
So now if you take education and you take measures of how productive or how well trained you're going to be, you see, and therefore also income, your productivity, you see by all of these measures, great, great gaps that exist. So by way of example is unicorns and the changes that we're seeing, fabulous changes in what we're seeing in technologies. Yes.
But it really comes down to if you take the number of people who have been making those changes and having unicorns in this wonderful world, they go to the best universities and they make these wonderful things happen. That's about three million people in a country of a little over 330 million people. And if you take the average, 60 percent of Americans have below a sixth grade reading level.
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Chapter 3: Will the advancement of technology destroy us?
Think about, I remember, and you probably remember, what the middle class working on an assembly line at an auto plant was like and how manufacturing occurred. Yes. Okay. A combination of foreign producers and automation changed all that. Of course. So that produces a larger wealth gap. And then with that wealth gap, we also have very large values gaps.
but it's driven by the wealth gap?
It's both. Some population, here we are at the World Government Summit in Dubai, and you have very globalization and everybody, the elites, let's call them the elites, we're among the elites, are here doing deals and facing questions and all of that. And at the same time, then there's those who are dealing with their basics. So wealth gaps contribute to it, but there's also values gaps.
Technology is part of the reason that we're here.
Religion. Yes. You know, belief systems. These are important, too. Of course.
But we're on the edge of this AI transformation, which seems like it's going to accelerate the trends that have led us to where we are right now. So what do you, I mean, if artificial intelligence, you know, increases efficiency but leaves an even greater number of people without meaningful work in the United States, what happens?
There needs to be a game plan. Yeah. Okay. There needs to be a game plan. That's the main thing. In other words, I can describe the circumstance.
Yes.
Okay. And we can agree that there needs to be a game plan. Well, let me ask you. I'm not responsible for the game plan.
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Chapter 4: What are Ray Dalio's predictions about AI?
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Chapter 5: How does AI impact economics?
So those are dumb people you're saying making those comments.
I'm saying it's understandable, but when you study change and the nature of change, it's a, you know, the world changes in dramatic ways because of causes that we can look at and get a good understanding of. But we can't be sure about anything because of the nature.
But in this specific, I mean, that's always true and wise people understand that. Like you don't, you're not in control of the future. Of course, you're not God. But in this specific case where there are specific technologies whose development we understand because we're watching it, it almost feels like there's no human agency here.
Like not one person ever suggests like, well, why don't we just stop the development of the technologies by force?
Well, I think you're being theoretical again. Well, I don't know. Just look how the system works, okay? Who makes what decisions how? Like, I think you have the bias of, we should stop all these technologies and just stop it. Somebody else has another view, and the other people have other views. And then there's a means by which those views turn into actions, okay?
And so it's correct, the system that we're dealing in will make those types of decisions. And we could discuss the pros and cons of all of those things, but that's just how it works, right?
I don't know. I mean, there are all kinds of pernicious, long-standing things that we've stopped, like the global slave trade. The Brits are like, we're not for this, we're stopping it.
And they did. Tucker, you are using that we stopped, okay?
No, Britain stopped it.
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Chapter 6: What role does human nature play in AI development?
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But you began the conversation by saying that AI is now at the point where, you know, the machines have the equivalent knowledge of a PhD in every different topic. So, like, at some point, are you going to have universities?
We'll redefine what universities are like, but you're going to have that combination of things. We're working together. Because still, we're a long way from, not a long way, but we're away from the point of the decision-making will be made by the AI. Because, okay, and the wisdom will be by the AI. Like, you're not going to have the AI determine how you raise your kid.
and different people will raise their children differently, and so on. The actual, you'll rely on it, but it's really the magic for the foreseeable future is remarkable people with remarkable technologies producing remarkable changes, and then we're going to have then the consequences of that.
As long as human decision-making plays a role, I'm totally fine with it. Yeah. You say that the university is going to change. I mean, how could it not? I thought the internet was going to get rid of universities. It didn't happen. But, I mean, how long does it take for the current model to change? It's pretty resistant to change.
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Chapter 7: What are the potential future changes due to AI?
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