In a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, a majority of respondents think the state of the union is not strong, and that President Trump is moving too quickly in trying to reshape the federal government. This episode: political correspondent Sarah McCammon, senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro, and senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson.The podcast is produced by Bria Suggs & Kelli Wessinger and edited by Casey Morell. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Chapter 1: What is the introduction to this podcast episode?
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Hi, this is Steven from Salt Lake City, Utah, where I'm driving home with a newly adopted 18-month-old puppy to introduce her to my wife and surprise the kids. Oh, boy. This podcast was recorded at 107 p.m.
Eastern Time on Monday, March 3rd, 2025.
Things may have changed by the time you hear it, but we'll still be learning to love this new addition to our family. Okay, here's the show.
The dogs of NPR welcome them.
18 months is a great age, too, because you don't have to usually train them to do everything.
It's not like an eight-week-old, you know, or something like that, which would be a lot of work. But I have to say, giving a puppy as a surprise is not usually the best tactic.
I was wondering about that.
They must have been begging for one for a long time. That's usually what happens.
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Chapter 2: How does the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll reflect on Trump's approval rating?
Today on the show, a pulse check from the latest NPR PBS News Marist poll. How are Americans reacting and responding to President Trump's policies so far? And is he making any headway on one of the chief messages of his campaign, which was, of course, addressing high costs and economic concerns? Domenico, we're going to start with you.
Chapter 3: What are the public's views on Trump's economic policies and inflation concerns?
Before we get into some of the nitty gritty here, I just want to take a broader look. What does Trump's approval rating look like overall?
What we found here is that Trump has a 45 percent approval rating, which is lower, by the way, than any past president in the last 80 years since Gallup has been measuring that number. So, you know, clearly Americans still very divided on Trump. I think one of the big warning signs for him in this poll is independence, because only 34 percent of independents approve of the job that he's doing.
And Mara, I mean, this is better than where Trump was when he left office in 2021, right?
That's right. But he's still underwater. He's never had a net positive approval rating as president. And he is trying to do things that are very dramatic, big changes. Now, Donald Trump ran as the change candidate. He was elected because people wanted to make big changes. But we don't know if they wanted to make the changes that he's making now. like completely upend U.S.
foreign policy so that the U.S. is now aligned, at least in the last United Nations vote, with Russia and North Korea and against the Western democracies of Europe. We don't know if they wanted him to radically downsize the federal government. We just don't know the answer to that. We know that they wanted him to bring down the price of eggs.
57% of people expect prices to go up in the next six months, which was the thing that I think is hard to argue is what got Trump in the White House in the first place. He has said that, you know, he could fix it. He would fix the economy. He would fix prices. But after he was elected... The price of apples goes up. It doubles. What can you do?
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Chapter 4: How do party lines affect perceptions of economic changes under Trump?
And that's it. And when you have 57 percent of Americans saying they think the price of groceries will increase in the next six months, that affects inflation. Inflation is made up a lot of things. It's made up of supply chain problems. It's also made up of expectations. There's a psychology to this.
If a majority of people think that groceries are going to get more expensive, they're going to change their behavior.
Right. And he stressed that during the campaign because he knew what we knew, which is that voters were saying again and again that the economy was, if not their top issue, one of their very top issues. You know, Domenico, when you look at the numbers, though, it's so interesting that he just got elected largely on this issue. Fifty seven percent of voters think now that prices are going to go up.
How does that break down, though, along party lines?
Well, Republicans very much are in line with Trump. Only a small percentage think that prices are going to go up. But the real problem for Trump here is with independence because he's underwater by 20 points with independence when it comes to his approach on the economy. They think that it's going to make things worse. And they – I overwhelmingly think that prices are going to be going up.
And that's a big part of this is because of all the conversation around tariffs. We know that tariffs are supposed to, he says, go into effect tomorrow. But there's some question whether or not he'll actually do that because the stock market has responded negatively. to that every single time that he's threatened those tariffs.
So his supporters are still happy and optimistic. But, you know, the rest of the country is worried about prices. I mean, does any of this matter, though? He doesn't have to run for reelection. The midterms are still a couple of years away.
See, that's the big question. Trump is such a different president in so many ways. And one of the most the biggest is that he's an automatic lame duck. He's barred by the Constitution from running again. So public opinion is not as much of a guardrail for him. As it would be for other presidents. The markets still are. He seems to react to them.
If they freak out about tariffs, he pulls back, at least temporarily. And that's why this whole presidency might be completely different in terms of public opinion. I don't think he's thinking about how can I – Be as popular as possible so J.D. Vance becomes the next president. That's not an issue for him.
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Chapter 5: What role does Elon Musk play in the Trump administration's changes?
But he wants to prove a couple things, things that he really believes in like tariffs are the answer to all economic problems or dismantling the federal government will make America better.
Well, I do think, though, that Republicans elected leaders are going to be the ones who feel the, you know, either the good things that happen from how people feel about what Trump does or the fallout from what he does. That's for sure. And they have a very narrow majority in the House.
And if independents continue to overwhelmingly disapprove, as they are, of what Trump is doing and Democratic opposition continues to be strong and they show up at the polls, that could spell real trouble for Republicans, especially in the House.
OK, before we take a break, we have to talk about Elon Musk and Doge. I mean, Mara, I think, mentioned a moment ago the just enormous reshaping of the federal government that the Trump administration is trying to do. A lot of that is being led by Elon Musk. How are people feeling about Musk and Doge?
Well, Musk and Doge both only have a 39% favorability rating. So only 39% of people have a positive view of Elon Musk and Doge. So in some respects, Trump can use Musk as a heat shield. And all the negative things that people feel about the cuts rushing into things, as a majority of people in our poll say that they think that Trump has rushed into these cuts without
thinking about the impact, that he can use Musk and maybe cut him off when he needs to. But really, people don't think very highly of either Doge or Musk. And 60 percent of people think that federal workers are essential to making government work. Only 40 percent think that the government would be fine without most of them.
And, you know, we're going to have a real controlled experiment about the political impact of Elon Musk. Like Trump, he is very polarizing. And he may turn out voters for Republicans and against them, just like Trump did. We have an election coming up on April 1st. It's in Wisconsin. It's for a seat on the state Supreme Court.
And it's the first election of the cycle with national implications because the Wisconsin state Supreme Court will probably draw congressional district maps. And Elon Musk is pouring money into that race. And Democrats are going to make him an issue. And it'll be really interesting to see if his money is a net positive for Republicans or does he become a lightning rod?
OK, it's time for a quick break.
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Chapter 6: How does the meeting between Trump and Zelensky impact U.S. policy in Ukraine?
So, Domenico, the poll was taken, we should say, before that event. But what do the poll numbers tell us about how Americans have been feeling about Ukraine?
Well, it looks like a little bit of a mixed bag, but we can break these down. 37% said that the US is not giving enough support to Ukraine. 34% think the US is giving Ukraine too much support. Another 28% say the US is giving about the right amount of support.
But if you combine that 37% who think that the US isn't giving enough support and those who say that the US is giving the right amount, meaning they likely want to see it continued. That's two thirds of people in this poll, 65 percent.
So this idea that the U.S., that the population wants to cut off support to what has been a traditional ally against a traditional adversary is really Trump sort of swimming upstream with his revolutionary foreign policy here.
Right. So most Americans are saying keep it where it is in terms of the amount of support or even increase it. Mara, what do you make of that breakdown?
Well, what's interesting to me is that to what extent is the debate about Ukraine becoming a debate about Vladimir Putin and how close Trump is to him, how much he identifies with him? He talked about the two of them going through this horrible experience together of the investigation that led to Trump's impeachment of how much Russia supported him in the 2016 election.
So I think if this question gets drawn as kind of pro-Putin, anti-Putin, you'll see those numbers be even stronger for Ukraine because the American people don't like Vladimir Putin. There is a big chunk of the MAGA right that likes him because he's a kind of conservative culture warrior, anti-LBGTQ rights, etc.,
But this is one place where Trump is at very much at odds with American public opinion, even though foreign policy is not something that usually is a top priority for voters.
Does it matter, though, again, and does it shape Trump's policy at all?
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