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Chapter 1: What is the dopamine of the day?
of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure. It's the dopamine of the day. The thing that makes everything better today with a little oxytocin mixed in. It's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now. If you didn't know it, this show works best if you get a warm beverage and
a blanket on your lap, your legs are up, and you've got one or two cats on your lap. That's the way to watch this show. Yes, it is. By the way, after this show, after we're done with this live stream, Owen Gregorian will be hosting a Spaces on X podcast. where you can talk about what happened on the show, or I suppose anything you feel like. So it'll be a little add-on to the show.
Owen will be doing that on Spaces as soon as we're done. I think he's only going to be doing this on Saturdays. Now, one of the things I like is when I say something that disagrees with all the experts, and then I wait for people to agree with me, and I look around and go, pretty good point, wasn't it? and nobody agrees with me. And then I think, maybe it's the way I said it.
So I'll wait, and then I'll say it again, and I'll think I'm making a good point, in this case about AI. And I'll look around again, and I'm like, anybody agree with me? And I can find nobody who agrees. But if I wait long enough, sometimes somebody smart will agree with me. And in this case, Naval Ravikant, was saying on a podcast with Arjun Himani. I hope I'm saying that right.
I did a podcast with him. And Naval was talking about AGI. Now, AGI is the AI version that comes after the current stuff. And it's where we get to something called artificial general intelligence, meaning that the AI is not just a clever kind of tool, but that it reasons just like people.
Now, we're not really close to having an AI that reasons just like people, but the smart people say we might be just a few years away. But here's what Naval said that agrees with something I've said. He said, quote, there's no intelligence that can fundamentally understand something humans can't understand. So he said that's what AGI people get wrong. Let me say it again.
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Chapter 2: How is AGI different from current AI?
There's no intelligence, including an intelligence that people imagine we're going to invent next. There is no intelligence that can fundamentally understand something humans can't. So the way I said it, and this is the first time I've seen anybody smart agree with me on this point. If we were to develop an AI that was legitimately smarter than people in just general reasoning,
I'm not talking about knowing facts or doing math because we accept that they're already better than us. But in general reasoning, if it reasoned better than us, we would not accept it because we prefer our illusions. And if it tried to take them away because it reasoned better than us, it would say stuff like, oh, you know your religion? Almost no chance that's true.
Not your religion, but let's say somebody else's. You have the right one. You have the correct one. But suppose somebody else with the wrong religion opens their AGI and it says, your religion is totally made up and here's the reasons. It would be very disruptive. And then the next thing you say is, oh, we better get rid of this AI. It got the religion question wrong.
So if AGI gets to the point where it disagrees with the smartest human on that topic, we will still believe the smartest human was right, even if the AGI was actually right. In other words, since we can't judge what is smarter than us, we will reject it, just like we do when other smart people disagree with us. So I think there might be no path So there are two things involved.
One is, could you make it smarter than people? That's the first challenge. And maybe you can't. Maybe it can never be smarter than people. But if you could, we wouldn't allow you to implement it. So there's probably no path to it. At least logically there's not. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work. But if it does work, we'll say it doesn't work. Those are the only two paths. Anyway. We'll see.
100%.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of AI reasoning better than humans?
Every single person they tested it on got fully cured. Every one of them. Now, this is the only kind of science I trust. When I see a medical claim, we did a study, and this drug is 30% better than if you didn't take the drug. Will I still die? Oh, you'll still die. Yeah, yeah, but a little bit later.
Those are the ones I don't trust because I think you can tweak your assumptions until you get a 30% advantage for anything. It wouldn't matter if it's real or not. You can always tease a 30% benefit out of the numbers just by tweaking it. But you can't really fake a 100% cure, right?
right if if you had even if it's a small study let's say and i don't think this was gigantic let's say you had 40 people in a study and all 40 of them had a deadly incurable cancer and then you give them the test and all 40 of them are completely cleared you don't really need to do a bigger test for me if you give me 40 out of 40 completely cured of an incurable disease
I don't need to see the double random trial. I mean, I'd like to see a larger trial to make sure there's no maybe side effects we didn't know about. But I wouldn't wonder if it worked. If you give me 40 on a 40, I don't need a larger trial to find out if it does the main thing it's supposed to do. But you do need to test for safety as well. That's amazing.
Chapter 4: What recent medical claim has been made about a cancer cure?
Now, before you get too excited, there are two downsides here. Number one is that it's not necessarily transferable to any other form of cancer. So the little bit that I know about the topic is that every cancer is a little bit different. So you could have one complete cure for it in one domain that just doesn't make any difference in any other cancer domain. So that's probably the case.
But a bigger problem is that Scott Galloway has been saying for a while, His plan for the rest of his life was to enjoy his money and die of ass cancer. There's a famous clip of Scott Galloway saying his plan is to die of ass cancer. It was sort of a joke when he says it, but now apparently his plans have been destroyed and he'll have to die of something else. So time to pivot. LeBron James says,
is talking about how the NBA's failed ratings are just going straight down. Apparently, interest in the NBA is way down. And a lot of people who are smart are saying it's because of the three-point shot. And I agree with that. So...
Several years ago, Stephen Curry, one of the greatest shooters, maybe the greatest NBA shooter of all time, completely changed the game because he could stand practically anywhere within half court and sink a three-point shot. Now, if you have one of those on your team, you're going to win, and sure enough, the Golden State Warriors won some titles.
But other people saw it and said, hey, why don't we take a lot of three-point shots too? And apparently the statistics of it are compelling, that if you can just do a little bit better on your three-point shots, you'll beat the other teams.
So everybody turned into this game where somebody will drive into the middle and either throw the ball up while getting fouled, or they'll toss it out to the three-point shooter who will sometimes make it and sometimes not. But it's sort of all that happens. So you can watch like 20 minutes of basketball and think you just saw the same play over and over again.
And sure enough, it's not interesting anymore. So I used to watch at least the Warriors. I didn't watch generic basketball, but I liked to watch my team because it had some stars on it. No interest anymore. I've been trying to watch all season. I keep turning it on, but indeed, it's boring now. And I wasn't quite understanding why it was so boring, but it's definitely the three-point shots.
Because all they do is come down, the first open person takes a shot, sometimes it goes in, and that's it. Like, why do I watch that? So, yeah, they get a problem. Because the strategy... is simply better with a good three-point shooters and they want to win. So how do you fix that? I have a hypothesis that all sports are terribly designed
because they were designed a long time ago and then too many things changed. Like tennis became the greatest game and then it became just garbage because the equipment got so good that the serve and everything just dominated the game and it became boring, boring to watch. And then the three-point thing ruined basketball. So I think all the sports need to start from scratch and redesign.
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Chapter 5: Why are NBA ratings declining?
because having that debt limit was supposed to give us some fiscal responsibility. It's like, don't just raise the debt willy-nilly, you gotta limit. But we still raise the debt, and it just takes longer, and that debt limit is just an obstacle, because when you're done, you're definitely gonna raise the debt limit again.
Because we don't have a government that's efficient enough or honest enough to fix that. In theory, if you and I got a debt limit in our real lives, here's your debt limit, we wouldn't find a way to spend more than the debt limit. We would do whatever we could to be under it. But the government doesn't need to because the penalty comes on you more than them.
I would love a situation where if I overspend, someone else will be punished. Well, I overspent on my credit card. Sorry, Bob, but I'm going to do it again tomorrow. Yeah, I know it's all bad for you, but it's not that bad for me. It's not bad for me. I get reelected. So sorry, Bob, I'm going to overspend my credit card. You'll have to pay it off again.
So we don't really have a government that has the option of fiscal responsibility. The design of the government, the current design, guarantees that you run up debt until you all die. Because any individual politician will get more votes by approving money because the people who benefit from it say, oh, that's the guy that got me that money. He got me my raise.
So politicians have an incentive to overspend and there's not really much incentive to stop. We have a system that by its design guarantees our own destruction because there's nobody to stop the spending. We don't have any system for that. The debt limit was a try. But in reality, they could just work around it, and it was just a pain in the ass, but it didn't stop them from overspending.
So here's what's interesting. We did see the beginning of a new form of government. Do you remember the old days when you thought the mainstream press was the watchdog of the government? As long as you had that fourth estate, the reporters were were working as adversaries to the government and they were uncovering all of their, their plots and their ploys.
And so as long as you had a free press, you could hope that your government would operate in good faith because they get caught. The press would just call them out if they did bad stuff. Is that the current situation? Do you think the current situation is the press will call them out for doing bad stuff? Well,
Have you noticed that the Wall Street Journal did this great expose on Biden's brain after it didn't matter? After it didn't matter. And Biden couldn't hurt them anymore because they didn't need access to the White House to get stories. So as soon as they didn't need Biden to give them access to interviews, they threw him under the bus.
But if he were in office and looked like he could get reelected or at least had any strength whatsoever as president, then the media would have bowed to him. So you can see the exception approves the rule. So if you were sort of new to the news and you saw that the Wall Street Journal and now the New York Times are talking about Biden having a degraded mental situation in office,
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Chapter 6: What is the significance of Biden's student loan forgiveness?
So they have to come up with a whole gaslighting architecture and make their winged monkeys in the media parrot it like it's real. That's how we got Biden is perfectly fine. The way you get Biden is perfectly fine is you ignore common sense. We could all see he wasn't. You ignore common sense. Then you get all your winged monkeys in the media to repeat it. Oh, he's fine.
He might be the best Biden we've ever seen, Joe Scarborough said. So just think about that reframe as you watch new news develop and see if it's true. The so-called MAGA group will, We'll come up with something that's common sense. I'll give you another example. Here's some common sense.
You take RFK Jr., who is willing to do the work and has all the capabilities in the world, and he wants to fix our food supply. Common sense. Now, do you need to agree with every opinion that RFK Jr. has in order to get the benefit of him fixing our food supply if he can do it? No. You don't have to agree with everything he's ever said. You just can take the good parts, also called common sense.
So what do the Democrats have to do? The Democrats can't disagree with common sense. So they gaslight, and they say that their own, you know, somebody from their own party not too long ago, RFK Jr., is this anti-vax guy who wants all your children to die. So they have to create a whole gaslight fake campaign Enterprise, because you can't say common sense makes no sense.
Here's what here's what RFK Jr. says is common sense on vaccinations, let's say we should we should test them better because there are indications that they're causing problems. What part of that is a problem? But the but the Democrats have to gaslight us and tell us that he wants to without without regard to science. He just wants to remove what's good for your baby.
So that's what the Democrats turn it into. Because they can't argue with common sense, which says maybe we shouldn't put things in our babies' bodies if we've not tested them sufficiently. And if we don't have enough recourse for the company that made it. Pretty commonsensical. I mean, you could argue, but you'd have to argue it on the common sense basis. But they don't do that.
No, they come up with an op, and they gaslight us. So is this new form of government? I don't know what I'd call it. It's like a bubble-up social media power where the power that Elon has comes entirely from the bottom up, whereas the Democrats are pretty much a top-down organization. Here's the new talking point. Everybody do the new talking point. And by the way, this is...
sort of an insider's point of view, Republicans don't have talking points. Do they? Because it seems like if they did, somebody would have been sending them to me by now. Nobody's ever sent me a talking point. And, you know, I have enough of an audience that if Republicans cared about creating talking points and distributing them, it would be happening. But
People on the political right do end up having, eventually they have something like a unified opinion, but the way that forms is in the best possible way. It evolves. So on minute one of a new news item, I'll be tweeting about it, several dozen other larger accounts will be posting about it, and we'll look at each other's work, and then we'll decide who had the best take.
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Chapter 7: What happened in the German Christmas market incident?
You know, they end up voting for the increase in the debt limit too, eventually. But you could also argue that they got something out of it, which is the simplification of the bill down to hundreds of pages and got rid of some of the porky stuff we didn't need. Now, of course, the gaslighting is that it's obvious that the memo went out and the Democrats are going to gaslight and say,
Oh, Elon Musk is the real president now. And Trump will have to play second fiddle because he's just a puppet now. He's a puppet to Elon Musk. And apparently Trump in an interview said that Elon called him before weighing in on the spending bill. And Trump said, quote, I told him that if he agrees with me that he could put in a statement.
So Trump wants you to know that he's the boss and that Elon Musk called him and got permission and did it. Now, is that true? Is it true that Elon called him and asked for effectively permission to take a strong stand about the bill? I don't know. But you know what I like about it? It doesn't matter. because he did agree with Trump.
So what matters is that we got a good result, and Trump is wisely saying, I was the boss. He called to get permission. I'm sure Musk will back him up on that, because Musk doesn't want to be seen as taking the light away from Trump. And so now they have a They have a version which is believable. It's believable, but it's convenient.
I'm not sure there was a phone call, but I don't know that there needed to be because it's also true that Musk probably knew what Trump wanted and it wasn't hard to be compatible with it. And he would have known that if he went against Trump, it would be dumb. And if he planned to go against Trump, he would have probably checked that.
But did he really need to check to agree that a 1,500-page rushed thing with a bunch of pork in it was a bad idea? Did he really need to ask Trump about that? Or could he just look at it and say, nobody wants this. There was literally nobody in the United States. Trump didn't want it. Nobody wanted it. Did he really have to ask? I don't know. If he did, I would say that's a plus. If he didn't,
He still made the right guess and Trump backed him. That's good too. If Trump had his back and Musk had Trump's back, there's your perfect situation if they have each other's back. And I think they have each other's back on this for sure because Musk is making clear that Trump's in charge. Trump's making clear that he's in charge and that Musk got permission, which maybe he did, maybe he didn't.
But yeah, this is what I want. I want this. I want more of this. All right. And I promise all Democrats that if Elon Musk started pushing hard on something that was against common sense, I would push back. Nothing would stop me from saying, oops, that doesn't make sense to me, or maybe we need to talk about this. So I wouldn't worry that Musk has some kind of power
that is contrary to what tens of millions of Americans who agree with him want. I've not yet once seen him do anything that didn't have a solid common sense base to it. Now, some of you will say, Scott, You say there's no such thing as common sense, and I do. So I'm using it in two different ways. There really is no such thing as common sense because we disagree what is common sense.
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Chapter 8: How does social media influence political discourse?
Oh, you'd give me all the concessions that I've asked for in the trade deal. Oh, I still love. Yeah, but I still love tariffs. Tariffs are awesome. I appreciate your offer. That's the best offer we've ever gotten. But I love tariffs. So, OK, OK, OK. We can sweeten the deal. That was the best offer we've ever made for a trade deal. But we don't want the tariffs. So. All right. All right.
We're going to give you what you want. Then Trump will say, well, you know, in the interest of good relations, I really wanted these tariffs. But all right. He created an asset and of nothing. And then he's going to trade it. Nobody ever did that before. He's the only person in the world who could pull this off.
So even I, even I in the beginning of this said, this doesn't work because the tariffs are bad for Americans. How can you use this as a weapon? And then I find out how I can use this weapon. He has convinced the world that he's not rational about tariffs. And you know what? There's nothing I can say that would ever change that. You think to yourself, but Scott, you're giving away the game.
No, I'm not. Because no matter what I say, Canada's still going to think he's going to do it. They're not listening to me. And by the way, he would do it. This is the beauty of it. It's not a bluff. If it were a bluff, I don't think he'd get away with it. But he would actually put a 25% tariff on every Canadian good. He would.
So it's not, even though he's created this out of thin air, he would still do it. So that's the beauty of it. He would still do it, even though it's just a created asset. Anyway, the level of brilliance in this, negotiation-wise, he's not just a good negotiator. He's just creating things that didn't exist before. I mean, that's, we've never even seen this. That's a level you've never seen before.
It's amazing. Anyway, normal politicians just can't do that. Remember I talked yesterday, there was a story about a fusion energy plant that was going to be built by Commonwealth Fusion Systems, and it was all approved, and it was an MIT spinoff, and they had all the state approvals, and they were going to go ahead and build this thing. And I said, wait a minute. is this a typo?
Because there's no such thing as a economical fusion reactor. How could we have one that's been approved and they're building it when it doesn't exist? So you remember that I was skeptical that maybe they'd literally just written down the wrong word, like a typo. Like, do they mean fission? But they said fusion because they got the two reversed. So today I have my answer. Um,
There's an article in Futurism by Victor Tangeman. And he points out that, indeed, Fusion has not been invented as scale. They've done lab tests where they can do it at a tiny, tiny scale, and it works at a tiny, tiny scale. But the technical obstacles to go from the tiny, tiny scale up to a grid-sized full deployment would require breakthroughs and innovations,
that are unimagined so far meaning that they don't have a plan to build a thing they have a plan to figure out how to build the thing and figuring out how to build it might require building it you might have to build it to find out if it works and then if you're lucky and something doesn't work you maybe you've built enough that you can tweak it until it works so
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