Morning Brew Daily
Markets Fear Recession is Near & Scientists Create Woolly Mammoth... Mice?
Thu, 06 Mar 2025
Episode 533: Neal and Toby dive into what economists are saying about the markets fearing that a recession is near. Then, the Trump administration teased the possibility of cutting hundreds of federal leases that shocked the commercial real estate market. Plus, scientists have brought back the woolly…mice? Meanwhile, Neal shares his favorite numbers on concert tickets, Chinese marriage rates, and Dallas Maverick ticket prices. Lastly, final headlines to know. Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow There are risks involved with investing in ETFs, including possible loss of money. ETFs are subject to risks similar to those of stocks. Investments focus in a particular sector, such as technology, are subject to greater risks and are more greatly impacted by market volatility, than more diversified investments. Invesco Distributors, Inc. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How are scientists creating woolly mammoth mice?
retail sales fell by about a percent between December and January. The consumer confidence survey that the conference board does, that slid this... seven points in February. That was the steepest decline we saw since summer of 2021. So a lot of warning signs, a lot of cracks everywhere you look.
Now, we should take a step back, though, and say, to be clear, sometimes financial markets aren't exactly Nostradamus when it comes to pricing in recessions. Recession bets were way off back in 2023. Bloomberg forecasted a 100% chance of recession, but the U.S. consumer proved to be a lot more resilient than anyone expected in the face of those higher interest rates.
So just take it with a grain of salt. Additionally, some of this bad economic news have come from reports based on surveys, which is not first-party data. It's really take them with a grain of salt. So we should say that despite all of these indicators flashing kind of yellow lights and red lights in some instances, you can't just say, oh, yeah, we're definitely heading towards a recession.
Well, we'll find actually some hard data coming out tomorrow with the jobs report. That'll be very closely watched given the widespread cuts across the government that Doge is doing. And it's the really, you know, you talked about the soft data that we've been getting these surveys. Well, this is hard data of how many jobs were added today.
Yesterday, there was a private survey of jobs that ADP does, which is essentially the preview of the government jobs report. And that also did not look very good. Seventy seven thousand jobs were added, according to ADP, which is about half of expectations. So this jobs report is going to be so key tomorrow morning.
Like your company's CEO during peak COVID, the federal government is trying to shed its vacant or underutilized office space in a doge-led attempt to cut down on costs. On Tuesday, the real estate arm of the government, the General Services Administration, posted a list online of 443 properties it was considering selling, saying these properties were, quote, not core to government operations.
The list was sweeping in scope, covering buildings in 47 states and and including prominent structures in Washington, D.C., such as the headquarters of the DOJ, Social Security Administration, and Census Bureau. But then, a plot twist. Before anyone could place a bid, the list was pared back by 100 properties later on Tuesday, and then by Wednesday morning, it vanished altogether.
Instead, a message was posted on the GSA website reading, "'Non-core property list coming soon.'" Whatever buildings the final list contains, the prospect of the government ditching its vast real estate portfolio has received both support and criticism.
But it certainly sent shockwaves through a commercial real estate sector that is still trying to recover after its worst downturn since World War Two. Washington, D.C., which is especially vulnerable to a government real estate fire sale, ended 2024 with an office vacancy rate at a near record 19.9 percent.
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