After some really messy economic headlines for the last few months, we may actually have some good news. To break it down, Nicole is joined by Ryan Detrick, the Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. Today, Ryan shares some signs he’s seeing in the market that nearly always indicate good news ahead… and whether this time could be different.
Chapter 1: What good news is there in the stock market?
I'm Nicole Lappin, the only financial expert you don't need a dictionary to understand. It's time for some money rehab. After some really messy economic headlines for the last month, which has really felt more like a decade, we might actually have some good news ahead, which is awesome.
So to break it down, I'm joined by Ryan Dietrich, the chief market strategist at Carson Group, whose voice you might recognize from his many, many, many features on CNBC. Today, Ryan shares some signs that he's seeing in the market that nearly always indicate there is good news ahead. Yay. And whether this time could be different. Ryan Dietrich, welcome to Money Rehab.
Thank you for having me. I'm excited to be here and I hope we have something to talk about. It's been boring out there.
I wish. I kind of like want a little bit of boring in my life right now. That would be a welcome change.
Yeah, I guess with markets, it's not giving it to us, but I hear you. And at least, you know, if we would have done this a few weeks ago, we'd have one thing to talk about. Now we've got maybe some positive things to talk about. So that's a nice change from that point of view.
We do. We've been seeing some bullish signals lately. So let's start with an easy one. The S&P 500 was up one and a half percent three consecutive days. OK, S&P, what does history tell us about that? Is that a good indication of momentum?
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Chapter 2: How can bullish signals indicate market momentum?
Yeah, we think it is. Now, let me start like this. You know, I've done this for over 25 years, I guess.
and it feels like every time we start a new bullish phase those first couple days everybody comes out of the woodwork and says well it's just a short covering rally well it's just a bear market rally it's going to roll over and what we're going to talk about now and maybe even a couple more rare breath thrusts that we've seen so just know the lows are likely in i mean that's our base case and one of them like you just said is up three days in a row one and a half percent you can have one day two days of big moves but to see three
is really, really rare. Went back to 1950. It's happened 10 other times, only 10. Six months later, S&P has higher nine out of those 10 times. And a year later, higher 10 out of 10 times. So never lower a year later after three straight days of one and a half percent gains. And the average returns like up over 20%. Now I'll just layer one more on here.
During those three days on the NYSE, more than 70% of all the stocks on the NYSE also were higher. So that's three straight days of a When I took a look at that, take a wild guess, that's only happened eight times. One year later, this might sound familiar, higher every single time with well over 20% average return. So there's lots of stuff.
Don't ever blindly invest in just one stat or one statistic. People see a lot of the stuff I share and say, well, you said this. Well, you have to layer these things on top of each other.
But like we're going to talk about here, we really think that there's multiple buying thrusts that we've just recently seen that are not the hallmark of a bear market rally, not the hallmark of just a bear market. They're the hallmark, honestly, of the end of week phases and likely higher prices and better returns. And I get the headlines. We get the concern.
But the market's going to tell us what it wants to do. And honestly, what we've seen is a really positive sign in our view.
Okay, so we're going to double click on the breath rust business and breath with D-B-R-E-A-D-E-T-H. But before that, you mentioned short covering. If somebody doesn't know what that is, can you just quickly explain that when we turn positive, sometimes people will say, well, those are, you know, people covering their shorts.
Good point. It's usually put it this way. If I hear it, it's like a backhanded compliment to the bulls is the way I view that when I hear that. But, you know, most people buy a stock, right? Well, if you buy a stock, someone also on the other side of that had to sell it.
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