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Hidden Brain

How Much Do We Really Know?

Mon, 19 May 2025

Description

You probably know someone who thinks they know more about something than they really do. But you could never be described that way . . . could you? This week, cognitive scientist Phil Fernbach explains the "illusion of knowledge" — the fact that we think we understand the world in much greater detail than we actually do. He'll explore why this happens, and how to close the gap between what we know and what we think we know. Hidden Brain is about to go on tour! Join Shankar in a city near you as he shares key insights from the first decade of the show. For more info and tickets, go to https://hiddenbrain.org/tour/

Audio
Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the illusion of knowledge?

Chapter 2: How did the Endurance expedition illustrate human limitations?

1552.931 - 1572.186 Phil Fernbach

And so our minds have to be really effective at generalization. They have to understand that this situation is similar to this situation in some way to be able to act effectively. So storing a huge amount of detail about the world and the way that it works is actually counterproductive.

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1572.606 - 1585.511 Phil Fernbach

What we really want to do is throw away all of the irrelevant detail and just retain the deeper principles, the deeper generalizable structures that are going to allow us to choose effective actions.

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1586.653 - 1606.321 Shankar Vedantam

And of course, this must be true for all manner of different things in the world, everything from bacteria to how trees work to how a hurricane works. All of these in some ways are complex phenomena where we have a general understanding of what bacteria do, a general understanding of what a hurricane is, but not the exact mechanics of what's actually happening at a granular level.

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1607.469 - 1631.356 Phil Fernbach

That's exactly right. The world is so complex. When you start digging into the details of almost anything, you realize how complicated it is and that you don't necessarily appreciate that complexity off the bat. I remember hearing a story about a rock, paper, scissors tournament. Do you know the game rock, paper, scissors? Yes, yeah. Very simple game, right?

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1631.917 - 1651.945 Phil Fernbach

It seems like there's nothing to learn and nothing to understand about that game. How could you have a tournament? You just throw randomly. Right. Well, actually, it turns out that there's a group of people who have gotten really good at rock, paper, scissors. And what do they do? They master the details of how the human mind chooses—

1653.766 - 1665.93 Phil Fernbach

what to throw and how it engages in pattern matching and other kinds of things. And they can identify certain kinds of patterns in what a more novice rock, paper, scissors player will do and take advantage of that.

1666.49 - 1676.593 Shankar Vedantam

I see. So in other words, if I'm a novice, there might be certain patterns that I slip into unconsciously without realizing I've slipped into the pattern. And if you're an expert, you sort of can take advantage of that.

1677.173 - 1691.219 Phil Fernbach

That's exactly right. It's a funny kind of dumb example, but something where when I first looked at it, I said, there is no way that somebody could develop any level of expertise in that area. But it turns out, no, there is actually something to be learned there.

1692.26 - 1703.045 Shankar Vedantam

So we can see the problem with mastering too much detail about the world when we look at people with a very rare condition called hyperthymesia. What is this condition, Phil? How does it work?

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