What happens next for Ukraine? The Global News Podcast teams up with Ukrainecast for a special Q&A. We discuss the prospects of peace in Ukraine, Donald Trump’s involvement, and security fears in Europe.
Chapter 1: What are the key questions about the Ukraine war discussed in this episode?
You're listening to a special Ukraine edition of the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. Hello, we're recording this at 13.30 GMT on Friday the 4th of April. And we're joined by three BBC correspondents from Ukrainecast to answer your questions about the war in Ukraine. Will the US be able to push Vladimir Putin into signing up to a ceasefire?
Could the Orthodox Church in both countries get involved? Does Russia have a point when it blames the West for the conflict? And what does the future hold for European and global security? Hello, I'm Oliver Conway from the Global News Podcast.
And I'm Vitaly Shevchenko, one of the hosts of the Ukrainecast.
And I'm Olga Robinson, a Russia expert at BBC Verify.
Chapter 2: Will the fighting in Ukraine stop soon?
And this is Frank Gardner, the BBC's security correspondent. Thanks all for joining us. Let's kick off with the question many people are asking. Will the fighting stop anytime soon? Hello BBC team.
With regard to the battlefield, is not it in Putin's interest to delay a complete ceasefire? Können Sie erklären, was die Positionen der orthodoxen Kirchen sind? Both in Ukraine and Russia in regard to the efforts to achieve a ceasefire.
Hi, I'm Julie from Preston. The recent announcement from Russia of their largest mobilization in years and the planned military exercises in Kaliningrad have further increased my concerns that Russia has no plans of ending this war. Do you think this is an escalation? And do you think Russia will ever agree to peace?
Thanks, Julie. And also to Frederick in Paris. And before you guys answer, we also had an email from Sue asking about Kirill Dmitriev's visit to Washington. He's head of the Russian Sovereign Wealth Fund and is actually under US sanctions. So what's going on?
Chapter 3: What is Russia's stance on peace negotiations?
Well, to start answering all those questions, I'll say that there's absolutely nothing in what Russia has said or done recently to suggest that it's remotely interested in peace in Ukraine. Just this morning, authorities in Ukraine said that six civilians were killed and 46 injured in the latest wave of Russian violence.
Und wenn es um Russlands Rhetorik geht, hat Sergej Ryabkov, ein Abgeordneter, gesagt am Dienstag, ich glaube, dass wir alle diese Friedensinitiative von den Vereinigten Staaten mögen, aber was ist mit den unterliegenden Gründen dieses Konflikts? Und dadurch, denke ich, bedeutet Russland die Existenz der Ukraine als sovereignen Staat.
So all that tells me that we are nowhere near a lasting peace or even a ceasefire in Ukraine. And the visit by this senior Russian official? Dmitriev is the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund. So he's all about money. And it's telling that Russia chose to dispatch him to the United States, knowing that Donald Trump is largely about money and dealmaking as well.
So, after holding all those meetings in Washington, Kirill Dmitriev, he said that they discussed various initiatives like Russian Earths, cooperation in the Arctic between Russia and the United States, the return of American companies to Russia, and himself, he is sanctioned by the United States. So this means, I think, that Russia is trying to offer America
A better deal than Ukraine would ever be able to offer.
And it's all about money. And Frank, do you think that is so that Russia can keep advancing on the battlefield?
So there are several different aspects to this war. There is, you know, land, sea and air domains and cyber. And... In the maritime domain, Russia is having a hard time. Ukraine is essentially winning that. They've driven the Russian Black Sea Fleet right out of Crimea, Russian occupied Crimea. They've driven them back to the Caucasus effectively, even though Ukraine doesn't have a navy.
They've developed some incredible ingenuity in long range drone strikes. They're able to hit with extraordinary accuracy. Ammunition dumps, air bases, oil refineries, hundreds of kilometers beyond the border, deep in Russia. Russia is very interested in having a ceasefire in those two areas, because that's where Ukraine is hurting it.
What it is not interested in having a ceasefire or any kind of pause is the land battle, because through sheer force of numbers of artillery rounds, of drones and of human weapons, Vielen Dank.
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Chapter 4: How does the Orthodox Church influence the Ukraine conflict?
And in terms of the Orthodox Church, both in Russia and Ukraine, any hopeful signs there that they might be pushing their leaders towards peace?
Not an expert on the Ukrainian Church, but on the Russian Orthodox Church. I think what you need to understand about it is that it's effectively in its current state an extension of the Russian state. So they're fully on board with the invasion and support it. In fact, the Russian Orthodox Church literally has a daily compulsory prayer
for the victory of the Russian soldiers against their enemies and those very, very few priests who have refused to say it, they have been ousted or have faced sanctions. So we're not looking at the Russian Orthodox Church as a peacemaking force.
Any Ukraine? Before I speak about Ukraine, let me give you a quote from how the Russian Orthodox Church described this war. Last year it called this war against Ukraine a holy war, defending the world against the satanic West. So it's difficult to expect that church to tell Putin, well look, maybe enough fighting.
In Ukraine it's very much aligned with the government on the war, but for different reasons. Because, you know, when you attack, you've got to defend yourself. But they're also praying for peace, whatever shape it might take. And just this morning I've heard reports about a church being destroyed in Kostiantynivka in Donetsk region. So church itself in Ukraine is under attack too.
Just returning to the battlefield, Julie was asking about the mobilization and exercises in Kaliningrad. Is that anything unusual?
No, it's not. This is an annual mobilization. Sorry, it's not mobilization. It's the conscription, which is different from mobilization. I know it sounds semantic, but there's a big difference in these words. Mobilisierende Reserven wären eine Krise-Messung. Das würde wirklich zeigen, dass er Probleme hat. Das ist das Anrufen der Reserven, um zu kämpfen. Konskription, was das ist, ist das Zweite.
Sie machen es im Frühjahr, sie machen es im Sommer und es geht um etwa 10.000 pro Jahr. Also im Jahr 2022 waren es rund 134.000. 140.000 oder so im nächsten Jahr, 150.000 im letzten Jahr und dieses Jahr sind es 160.000. Theoretisch werden keine dieser Männer in der Ukraine oder in der russisch beschlossenen Donbass oder in Kursk serviert. Aber in der Praxis ist das bekannt geworden. Ja.
Yeah, but it's more of an exception. I think conscripts in Ukraine have been more of an exception. But I just wanted to weigh in as somebody who was born and raised in Russia. You just get used to conscription. It's just like part of your life. It's something that happens all the time. In fact, when I...
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Chapter 5: Is Russia's recent military mobilization an escalation?
But it's the current draft that's been kind of the largest in years. It's kind of... Part of the wider drive and focus on the kind of military activities and the army.
I think we should say it has a dreadful reputation. Conscription and life for conscripts in the Russian army is brutal. If you haven't got connections, I mean, in the British army, in which I served, during their time in conscript service. So people who've got connections, if you're a well-connected family in St. Petersburg or Moscow, you make sure you get out of it.
Right, let's turn to the diplomatic pressure on Russia. At the NATO meeting on Thursday, Poland's foreign minister told the BBC, Vladimir Putin had weeks, not months, to show the Americans he is serious about ending the war. All the gloves could come off. But not all our listeners are convinced.
Hi, Todd from the US. Can you really see a path that Trump stands up to Putin and demands he give some territory back or agree to no further territorial expansion? Or that Trump tells Putin we're going to put European or US troops in the Ukraine to ensure no further Russian advances? Can you see any path where Putin actually stops and is content?
Well, Ferdinand got in touch to ask, given what's happened so far in the Trump peace deal, am I the only one feeling Trump looks more and more like Alexander Lukaschenko, a puppet of Putin, accepting all of the Russian conditions. And we also had this.
Hello, I'm Bob from Glasgow. Since the US-led talks have commenced, there's been no mention of North Korea's involvement in the war. Why is that? Many thanks.
Interesting question, Bob. Of course Donald Trump tried to arrange a deal of his own with North Korea when he was president last time, but it didn't quite work out. Let's deal with that first. Does the North Korean involvement complicate things?
Es ist so, weil niemand im Westen diesen Konflikt zu überwinden wollte, was zwischen Russland und der Ukraine passiert. Und das ist nicht eine Veränderung, die von Russland geteilt wird. Sie waren total froh, Iran mit ihren Drohnen und Artillerie zu involvieren, Nordkorea mit ihren Soldaten und Artillerie auch.
And a key objective pursued by the West for years was containment of this conflict, which didn't quite work. Now, when it comes to North Koreans in North Korea, In diesem Krieg wurden apparell 4.000 von ihnen verloren, als sie in der Russischen Kursk-Region kämpften. Und dann verschwanden sie. Und apparell, laut Südkorea, wurden mehr Flüchtlinge in die Kursk-Region gesendet.
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Chapter 6: What role does Donald Trump play in the Ukraine conflict?
There was a lot of talk about them. It's just like it feels like it has diminished significantly. The talk and the visual evidence of them being present on the ground. But also, yeah, according to some of the latest assessments from the UK Defence Ministry, they had 5,000 casualties of March and a third of them dead.
Now, Vitaly, you were saying you don't think there's any sign that Donald Trump will put pressure on Vladimir Putin, but we're recording this on Friday and the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says we'll find out within weeks whether Russia is serious. Could that be more pressure coming from the Americans?
Marco Rubio war derjenige, der nach den Jetta-Talks vor ein paar Wochen gesagt hat, dass der Ball jetzt in Russland gespielt wird. Und so hat die Welt gedacht, aha, endlich ist die USA ein ehrlicher Verkäufer in all dem. Und plötzlich ist nichts passiert. Und keine offene Druck wurde auf Moskau gelegt.
I went down to Riyadh, I covered the second lot of ceasefire negotiations and hopes were very high at the end of it because there seemed to be some kind of agreement. But then afterwards, Russia introduced a whole lot of more stipulations that they wanted. They wanted essentially the sanctions lifted on agricultural banks so they could export stuff.
And that would be a way, a crack in the Western sanctions on Russia, which the EU was certainly very unhappy with and so would NATO be. I think Putin has played quite a clever game.
When Steve Witkoff, President Trump's special envoy, not just to the Middle East, but also to the Ukraine talks, when he visited Moscow and met Vladimir Putin, Putin, whoever advised him on this, or maybe it was his idea, brilliant. He said... Er hat ihm gesagt, dass Präsident Putin zu der Kathedrale ging, um für Donald Trump zu beten, nachdem er geschossen wurde.
Er hat ein Bild veröffentlicht, das Witkow mit ihm zurückgebracht hat. Donald Trump war sehr betroffen. Wow, das ist der Weg, um ihn zu behandeln. Ich bin es leid, zu sagen, dass ich kein Respekt vor dem Präsidenten der Ukraine habe. Aber im Vergleich zu dem erstaunlichen Showdown im Oval Office am 28. Februar, wo zwei Präsidenten sich umeinmal schreien, That is not the way to do it.
So Putin is playing Trump very cleverly right now. And there is clearly a very good personal relationship between those two. And Donald Trump is leaning over backwards as not to annoy Russia and to spare Russia from the tariffs. Ukraine's been slapped with a 10% tariff, which they've said we can cope with. It's not great, but it's not critical. How much has been slapped on Belarus and Russia?
Nothing.
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Chapter 7: Are there any international influences complicating the Ukraine war?
Well, as the three of you have reflected, the Trump administration has certainly faced criticism that it's been too sympathetic to the Kremlin viewpoint. But some listeners wonder if we should actually look more at Russia's grievances.
I'm Tony from Ottawa in Canada. One of Putin's root causes for his invasion is the claimed maltreatment of Russians living in Ukraine. For example, the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church are not accepted officially and banned respectfully.
Und David emailed to ask, why does the BBC not report other narratives on the cause of the Ukraine conflict? For example, NATO ignoring Russia's security concerns and the 2014 ousting of the pro-Russia president in Kiev. Is the West not 50% to blame?
Okay. As a Russian speaker who spent most of his life living in eastern Ukraine, I think I can tackle this. When Tony mentions Russians in Ukraine, I suspect he means Russian speakers, because the notion of ethnicity is kind of hazy in Ukraine. I certainly never felt threatened or oppressed, nor were my friends in Zaporizhia. We could speak Russian freely. It's not banned.
In official communication in schools, for example, yes, you're supposed to speak Ukrainian, but it's Ukraine. And this comes after decades and decades of Soviet communist Russian efforts to eradicate the Ukrainian language.
So we sort of accepted it and found it natural and after Russia started its war against Ukraine, so many Russian speakers in Ukraine speak in Ukrainian now, because it feels wrong to continue speaking Russian. Now, Russia's security concerns, I don't think any of them were legitimate.
I keep using this phrase because I try to stick to the facts and nothing in Ukraine's, NATO's, the West's actions or rhetoric in the run-up to the initial secret invasion of 2014 or full-scale invasion 2022. suggest that there was a threat forming against Russia. It's an excuse to attack Ukraine, because no aggressor wants to be seen as an aggressor.
Russia, Vladimir Putin, repeatedly presents this attack on Ukraine as something preemptive.
And I think it's really important to get the language right here. Because when we're talking about the supposed maltreatment of Russian speakers or threat of NATO to Russia, these are not rude causes of the conflict. These are excuses, as Vitaly rightly put it, that Russia used to invade. And in reality, you know, when it comes to maltreatment of Russia,
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Chapter 8: How is Putin reportedly handling relations with Trump?
And that means that it kind of diminishes the importance of it for Ukrainians as a target.
So, on air defense, Ukraine has advanced a long way since the dark days of 2022, when literally policemen were firing Kalashnikovs at Shahid drones that Iran was shipping to Russia. But this is a numbers game. And... Ukraine is slowly running out of effective air defense.
It depends what you're, you know, if it's relatively low-grade Shahid-136 drones that Russia has manufactured using an Iranian model, they're fairly easy to hit. But it's much harder to shoot down certain missiles. And the hardest one of all was the one fired at Dnipro, the Oreshnik, which I think, correct me if I'm wrong, is Russian for hazel bush.
This is a hypersonic missile that travels at speeds in excess of five times the speed of sound. It goes right up, high up, above the stratosphere or into the stratosphere and then comes down at such a speed that it's almost impossible to stop it. So they haven't got many of them, Russia, but that is a bit of a sort of, It's not an end of days weapon, but it's pretty scary.
And that's even with the confessional warhead. Now, the thing that Ukraine is crying out for more of and desperately needs is patriots. They are extremely expensive. They cost millions of dollars and they wanted more under the Biden administration. He released a few. They want more under the Trump administration. They're not releasing any.
Some countries in Europe have got them, but some of them have been sent to Israel, for example. Und in Bezug auf das Verteidigen von Kherson?
It's also a numbers game. Because of the shortage of air defense systems that Ukraine has, it's a question of where do you deploy them? What do you consider more important? Which lives you choose to preserve? It's a very difficult choice, but the fact is, Ukraine can't build a dome, iron or any other sort of dome, over all of its territory, each and every settlement.
That's why we've been hearing reports of this awful human safari. That's what it's been reported as in Kherson, where Russian drones hunt down civilians on bicycles. Old women at bus stops. Bus stops as well. It's terrible. But the fact is, it's happening because Ukraine is unable to stop it.
Most of Europe has voiced strong support for Ukraine, of course. Some of that stands to self-interest, the fear that if Vladimir Putin wins, Poland or the Baltics could be next. But some listeners want to know what Europe is doing to protect itself.
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