Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
15 Aug 2025
How will we feed the 100s of GWs of extra energy demand that AI will create over the coming decade? On this episode, Casey Handmer (Caltech PhD, former NASA JPL, founder & CEO of Terraform Industries) walks me through how we can pull it off, and why he thinks a major part of this energy singularity will be powered by solar. His views are contrarian, but he came armed to defend them.EPISODE LINKSTranscriptYouTubeApple PodcastsSpotifySPONSORS- Lighthouse helps frontier technology companies like Cursor and Physical Intelligence navigate the U.S. immigration system and hire top talent from around the world. Lighthouse handles everything for you, maximizing the probability of visa approval while minimizing the work you have to do. Learn more at lighthousehq.com/employers- To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.TIMESTAMPS(00:00:00) – Why doesn’t China win by default?(00:08:28) – Why hyperscalers choose natural gas over solar(00:18:01) – Solar's astonishing learning rates(00:27:02) – How to build 50,000 acre solar-powered data centers(00:40:24) – Environmental regulations blocking clean energy(00:44:04) – Batteries replacing the grid(00:49:14) – GDP is broken, AGI's true value must be measured in total energy use(00:58:45) – Silicon wafers in space with one mind each Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Full Episode
Today I'm interviewing Casey Hanmer. Casey has worked on a bunch of cool things. Caltech PhD on some gravitational wave, black hole gimmick stuff, then Hyperloop, then the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at NASA, and now he is founder and CEO of Terraform Industries. Casey, welcome.
Thank you. It's great to be here finally.
Big picture question I'm interested in, to the extent that AI just ends up being this big industrial race, who can build the most solar panels, who can build the most batteries, who can build the most GPUs and transmission lines and transformers and et cetera, et cetera. This is not what the U.S. is known for, at least in recent decades.
This is exactly what China is known for, right, where they have like 20x the amount of yearly solar manufacturing the U.S. has. Obviously, we have extra controls right now, but over time, SMIC will catch up to TSMC's leading edge. So what is the story exactly of how the United States wins this? Like, why does China just not win by default?
Do you think that China is better at capital allocation than the United States? Do you think the Chinese business environment is better for business than in the United States?
I think you're going to make these first principles argument about these other industries where they're killing it, but it doesn't seem to have hampered BYD or cattle.
Well, people say, oh, look, they're so much better at building high-speed trains than the United States. Right. I would never hold up a flag saying I'm really good at building high-speed trains. That is just a sign that you're really bad at capital allocation. Why would you devote, in 2025... so much industrial effort and money, right?
They're devoting a lot to solar overcapacity, which, in your opinion, is the key to future industrial growth. Accidentally correct. They call the most important thing correct, right?
Which would count for something. Well, they're in a similar situation to Europe, but unlike the United States. So the United States... is the luckiest goddamn country on earth because it's surrounded on two sides by oceans and on the other two sides by like friendly allies, right? China's surrounded by 15 countries who are mostly hostile to it, right?
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