Farmers already worry about things like crop prices, the cost of farm supplies and extreme weather.Now, President Trump's signature tariffs — and the federal government under the Trump administration — pose more big question marks.We hear from Ann Veneman, the Secretary of Agriculture under George W. Bush.And Robert Smith and Wailin Wong from NPR's The Indicator from Planet Money report on what economic uncertainty means for one farmer.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at [email protected] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Chapter 1: Why is uncertainty a challenge for farmers today?
Farmers do not like uncertainty. They want to know the prices their crops would fetch before they plant them. And they want to know how much it'll cost to buy seeds and fertilizer and farm equipment. And they want to know they won't be hit by drought or bird flu. But right now, things are not certain in farm country.
Things are changing hour by hour. How do you operate a business that way?
Justin Sherlock is a farmer, also president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association. As our colleague Kirk Sigler reported from North Dakota, his uncertainty is compounded by tariffs and when or if they take hold. President Trump's tariffs and tariff threats on foreign imports... have led to other countries retaliating with tariffs on American agricultural exports.
For a soybean farmer, that would make Canadian fertilizer more expensive to import and would result in millions of tons of soybeans not being sold and exported to China.
The tariffs will go on agricultural product coming into America and our farmers starting on April 2nd. It may be a little bit of an adjustment period.
In his speech to Congress, President Trump asked farmers to bear with him. His hope is that the American economy eventually adapts to unlock a bigger domestic market for farmers.
So to our farmers, have a lot of fun. I love you too. I love you too. It's all going to happen.
Under the first Trump administration's trade war, the federal government paid out billions to keep farmers afloat, but their businesses are still recovering. And Justin Sherlock has crops to plant this spring.
You can't take that to the banker and say, well, our political leadership must have a plan, so give me a loan.
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Chapter 2: How do tariffs affect American farmers?
For example, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Program has experts working to protect agriculture from pests and diseases, particularly these days, bird flu. You know, we have the Food Safety Inspection Service in the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It's responsible for the safety of the meat and poultry. And then, of course, you talk about the nutrition programs.
They account for about 70% of the USDA budget. There is discussion about whether or not the SNAP program, the former food stamp program, will be cut. But there's also discussion about whether or not there may be some limitations on what you could buy.
I think a lot of the debate will probably be around cutting benefits to people in need, but does that have trickle-down impacts or trickle-up impacts on the farmers who produce the foods that become part of that food assistance program?
Well, potentially there is one program. It's about a billion dollar program that the department has already said it's going to cut. It buys produce locally produced by farmers in the area for food banks and school lunch. That program is already being cut and farmers that are depending on that program are already feeling the effects of that.
The government has frozen or ended a lot of grants to farmers. Here's what a dairyman named Travis Forgs told Wisconsin Public Radio after the federal government paused two five-figure grants he had for a new industrial freezer and solar panels.
We have the contract signed. Did I think that perhaps in the future these grants wouldn't be available? Absolutely, because that happens with different leaders in place. But did I in the wildest dreams think that they wouldn't honor their word as our federal government?
Absolutely not. Secretary Veneman— Ultimately, at least one of his grants went through. But big picture, what does the uncertainty around this mean for farmers?
Well, it puts them in a very difficult position. They've already started the work. They've already spent their part of the cost share. And if the money is not going to come from the federal government, it puts them in a very precarious position. They may then come under pressure from their banks because they can't pay back their loans. And I think when you have a contract, it should be honored.
When you were in office in the early 2000s as agriculture secretary, what did you hear most from farmers? What did they want the federal government to do more or less of?
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