Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast
Why We Don’t Time the Markets: Part 271.. 4-22-25
Tue, 22 Apr 2025
In this episode, Scott Becker reinforces the long-standing philosophy of consistent investing over market guessing.
Chapter 1: Who is Scott Becker and what is this podcast about?
This is Scott Becker with the Becker Private Equity and Business Podcast. Today's discussion is why we don't time the markets, part 271. So we always talk about not timing the markets. I joke about this being episode 271 on this series about not timing the market. But let me tell you a quick story. So
Chapter 2: What recent events sparked the discussion on market timing?
About a month ago, when this trade war stuff starts heating up, there's a text thread, you know, one person is very skeptical of the trade war. The rest of us are trying to figure it out and so forth. And one of the things that comes up is who's going to bet on where the S&P is going to be at the end of April? So various ones of us put in different potential numbers
Chapter 3: Why does Scott Becker avoid timing the market despite making predictions?
I don't want to recall my number because I think I'm going to be way, way off. But it was an optimistic number and how things would bounce back once this trade war got settled out a little bit. And this is, again, why we don't time the market. Now, I'm going to keep my guesstimate confidential as to what I was guessing. I think it was 6200. And my colleagues will correct me or let me know.
Chapter 4: How accurate was Scott Becker's market prediction during the trade war?
if I'm totally wrong or totally right. But as I look at this today, we'll release this April 22nd, but as I look at it on April 21st, the S&P is at 5,100 and down another 3.4% today. So my guesstimate of 6,200, which I won't point out loud, seems very, very off. Now, the only credit I'll give myself is,
that while we were talking about these numbers and investments, I am an avid believer that you don't time the market, that you can't guess. People use this language, oh, it's on discount at 20%. Oh, it's on discount at 10%. If you were at Filene's Basement or Bloomingdale's or wherever you shop, that if you could buy something with 20% off, you would do it.
The reality is we never know what's really off and what's not. I'm a much bigger fan of not timing the market, dollar cost averaging, and so forth and so on. But I can tell you, it's this potential sort of joking bet as to where the market would be in a month at the end of April when I said 6,200. Right now, one, I feel very wrong. Two, I feel very validated in my concept
that I don't try and time the market. So the good, the bad, and the ugly, don't time the market. While we don't time the market, episode 271 or whatever number I said, it's not a real number, but we always talk about not timing the market. And again, I was wrong on my guess as to where the S&P would be. I was right on not timing the market. So it is what it is. One for two is not bad.
Thank you for listening to the Becker Private Equity and Business Podcast. I know my colleagues that have set up this pool as to where the market would be at the end of the month are enjoying how wrong I was, but it is what it is. Thank you for listening.
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