Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast
Palantir Technologies – Aren’t I a Genius 4-24-25
Thu, 24 Apr 2025
In this episode, Scott Becker discusses the common investing pitfall of selective storytelling.
Chapter 1: What is the focus of Scott Becker's discussion?
This is Scott Becker with the Becker Private Equity and Business Podcast. Today's discussion is Palantir Technologies, aren't I a genius? So here's how the typical discussion goes with people that talk about their stock picking. I invest in Palantir Technologies. It's up 35%. It's up 370% in the last year, last 52 weeks, but I didn't own it for all of that.
Chapter 2: How do people often brag about their stock picks?
But needless to say, it's up a lot since I bought it. So aren't I a genius? And let's go through this very quickly. This reminds me of everybody who sits at the dinner table and says they bought Apple early, they bought Nvidia early, they did this early, they did that early, and they're just geniuses. And, of course, they're still not that financially ahead and still working for a living.
Chapter 3: What should you consider when someone boasts about their investments?
Now, when somebody tells you that they bought Palantir earlier at the right price, and it's up 35% year-to-date, and it's up 370% the last year. Also ask them what they bought that went poorly, because I can guarantee you anybody that's bragging about their genius and picking particular stocks also got crushed in some stocks. I'll give you one of mine.
One of those we talk about regularly, Astero Labs. I thought I was so smart when I ended up owning part of Astero Labs. It was going up. It was going up. It was the greatest thing I ever bought. I thought I was going to retire off it. And of course, Then deep seek happened. Then the next thing happened. Then the next thing happened.
So my Estira Labs, which I also own directly, is now down, I think, the last I looked, about 55% to 60% year-to-date. So as much as I might tell people at the dinner table how smart I am because I own Palantir that was up 35% year-to-date, I own it in the same breath I own Astera Labs, which is down 60% year-to-date. So maybe I'm not that bright.
Also invested in a cannabis ETF a couple years ago that got absolutely crushed. Invested in a Bitcoin ETF that got crushed too. And then, of course, I sold it and it went back up. But anybody that tells you about their genius in investing in individual things, my take on that is –
Generally, they're a moron and should be investing only in index funds like I should be investing largely in index funds. That's the take for today. Don't think you're a genius when things are going well. Let's see everything, not just the one thing you're bragging about. Thank you for listening to the Becker Private Equity and Business Podcast. Thank you very, very much.
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