Steve Yates
Appearances
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Well, it's definitely different, but we are in unprecedented times and circumstances in any number of different ways. I have kind of noted the Riyadh location as being interesting also in a number of ways. Obviously, Secretary Rubio arrived there and was talking with various folks about things that were not just Russia-Ukraine related, and having that
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
sort of great power conversation there couldn't have gone unnoticed by Tehran. And so, it's also a signal of where things may be going with regard to the broader Middle East revival of notions of Abraham Accords elements, maximum pressure towards Iran, et cetera, et cetera, we shall see. But that's sort of some of the preamble to the main
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
horse that was sitting across the table with Russia in Saudi Arabia. It's definitely true that Ukraine wasn't present, but Keith Kellogg has been in Ukraine a lot, and he has a lot of experience having been in Ukraine before going back to the White House as a special envoy this time. And Vice President Vance, Secretary Rubio, Secretary Hegseth, all had been through Europe
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And so it's not as if they haven't been a part of conversations. They were not in this room, but it's also be really fair to say that the bases have not been touched. Now, we do have the conversation in Riyadh. It's kind of hard to tell what exactly was transacted. It sure seemed to me to be kind of a temperature taker, a scene setter.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
It seemed like the president asked Secretary Rubio, give me a sense of, are the Russians really willing to deal on some of the terms that we've talked about? Is there kind of a stable landing place here to reduce tensions and pick up where we are? And just acknowledging that we aren't where we were in 21 and 22, that there's been three years of a war of attrition that's been grinding along.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And so we're not really looking at optimal outcomes. We're looking at the outcomes we might work with now, kind of said. And it seems like Secretary Rubio told the president that we've got something to work with. We shall see. At least that's the impression the president has hinted at.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Yeah, I think there's pieces of this that I think are worth kicking around. Obviously, the relationship between Trump and Zelensky was never good. And I don't think it's going to end up good. There is this substantive issue of we are fighting for democracy, but right now Ukraine is not entering into an election cycle. And so there's going to be some bumps and bruises there for sure.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I also just don't take the first round. I see this as sort of like a heavyweight match where we're going to have multiple rounds. And so there's been jousting and floating of ideas and things that happened in the course of the campaign of things getting tossed out. There's been exploring of where things might go through the transition.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
So I think there's a lot of kicking the tires in multiple directions going on. So I don't take the Riyadh meeting as the beginning of even the really much more than just the first stage of where are we. after three years of Joe Biden not talking with Putin at all.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And we can argue whether you should or you shouldn't, but to your point to a degree, if you're going to get a durable peace deal, how are you going to get it if you don't have any talk directly with the Russian side? So, this might just be a different way of inchworming toward where this sit down might ultimately get. But
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I think they would have been foolish to imagine that you're going to go to Riyadh, sit down, and come out with a victory that's durable. This is at best a temperature take for how to proceed.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I don't disagree on that front either. I mean, it just is definitely when there's rifts on your opposition side, you probably have net advantage. We'll see how all that rolls forward. But there's also this issue of the NATO versus not NATO issue. I mean, really before NATO. The first Trump term was over. Trump and his team were not advocates for Ukraine joining NATO.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And there was a debate about, is this provocative? Now, I'm not a super fan of blaming the victim if the victim is provocative to an aggressive neighbor, but there is a certain logic to what's the net gain and what's the net risk in doing so, especially if you have Europe that's not ready, willing, and able to step up the way they should. And so I think that was part of the calculus on NATO.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I do think that there's going to have to be security assurances for Ukraine, and they're going to have to be better than what the early non-Lugar promise was. If you give up your nukes, we'll protect your territory. That didn't happen. It can't be what Putin says that no European forces, no NATO forces can be there. And so he's free to say what he thinks he's gotten at this stage.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I think this is verbal jousting. Look, I don't think that they're going to get to a conclusion. under the shortened timeline.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
From the sort of Indo-Pacific or Asia theater, looking back in the direction of what's going on with Russia and Ukraine, and also the Gaza and broader Middle East situation, Certainly, China thinks at some level there is advantage when America is distracted or spread thinly. We also have a lot going on domestically.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And so they might feel like these are times of opportunity to maybe seek some advantage with President Trump and the new team. However, I think that they're a little bit concerned about the new administration because it's Not necessarily as predictable as they might have had with previous administrations.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And they aren't completely sure that if they poke the bear, the bear might not swat back in certain ways. So they know that there is an initial wave of tariffs. Maybe they can negotiate a way or act in ways that get round two of that conversation, but maybe the tariffs go up or target other areas. They also see this Doge effort, which is a real distraction in the United States.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
But if the Doge stuff is serious about making our Pentagon manufacturing supply chains more timely, more productive at lower cost. It means we have more lethality as Secretary Hegseth likes to focus on going out there. And we've got things we can sell to our allies and partners that would challenge the stuff that China's got coming down the line.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
It doesn't affect today, but it certainly affects the horizon. So it's a mixed bag for They do like us bogged down and distracted, but I don't know that they're sitting as pretty as we might imagine. They've got pressure at home on their economy. Their periphery is a little bit wise to what they've been up to on encroachments.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Prime Minister of Japan and Prime Minister of India came and had amazingly positive meetings in Washington in terms of the optics and the sort of issue briefs that came out of there. So, there's a little bit for Beijing to sit back and think, what exactly is the lay of the land here of this new team?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Well, I think it's their domestic economy. We have a lot of people who are great experts that have partial visions in, but it's like people in the dark being able to describe a different part of an elephant. No one's got clear, transparent, verifiable visibility into what the nuts and bolts of the Chinese economy really are. There's a property bubble that's awful.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
You can see videos of huge multiplexes of high rises getting demolitioned. They've got a changing population curve where they're not having kids, not marrying, going later in life. How do you have this mass manufacturing economy if you don't have humans to go in at low wages to do that stuff? There's sort of the political tension.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Xi Jinping, as leader of China, has opted for control and stability rather than growth and openness, which was the old ethos of reform and opening under Deng Xiaoping famously. And I think that some elements of the Chinese populace are getting sore by that and don't really want this picking a fight all around the world. They want to take care of schools and bridges and jobs for the future at home.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Yeah. That pharmaceutical question is front and center. It's really, really big and important and urgent. And India is definitely a part of that. That is not bringing things back to the American shore, but it's certainly better than being overly dependent on the People's Republic of China and quality control issues there. But there's a couple of big umbrellas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Now, both of those state visits I mentioned I guess they weren't full state visits in the protocol sense. But both of those prime ministerial visits from Japan and India talked about investment in the United States, joint manufacturing. There was a lot under the umbrella of this AI infrastructure initiative that's up to a trillion dollars. It was rolled out before these visits happened.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And you've got Japanese, Indian, and other allied equities that might be able to do more in the United States.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Or we recognize, especially like on our defense supply chain, that's an area where India has a lot of growth potential that we could do some things where we're not ready to accelerate the manufacturing lines in the United States, where we can manufacturing some things out of Korea, Japan, India, other places to fill some of these gaps on a nearer timeline. And they're open to that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And then there's a lot of training that we can do for their militaries here in continental United States and areas where we collaborate in technology, software, and hardware. So, I see that manufacturing at home as a serious initiative. It's one of those things, it's an aircraft carrier turning slowly. The Japanese investment to save US steel in Pennsylvania is a down payment.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Maybe that can be replicated in other areas where the Japanese investor profits some, a community is saved, and an industry is saved in different parts of the US. If you replicate that among good, reliable, willing partners, We've got a bit of an American revival and it changes the political coalition behind it. So, some of the elements are there.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I think the energy piece is absolutely central to this. And so, having Doug Burgum push that we're going to be extracting on federal lands and maybe tribal lands,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Looking again at Alaska as being really a state of the United States where we're going to fuel America and fuel our allies so they don't have to rely on the Straits of Malacca and Southeast Asia to have sort of resilient supply chains for energy. These are the building blocks that I see coming together. But we're at the front end. It's going to take years of investment and co-development.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Yeah, interesting, though.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Well, unfortunately, we're wildly behind the curve. Our main advantage is that our technology is better and our fighting force is proven, trained, combat experienced and ready.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And for every one of our quality platforms and divisions, China is going to lose 10 times that amount in crap when they go into conflict because they're untested, don't have quality control, et cetera, but they have quantity. And that quantity is definitely getting out there. But America has stood in its own way on everything from submarines to surface vessels to aircraft.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And that's where, you know, I think we have this unique moment where I might hope for the impossible. that Doge and Hegseth with a new mandate can really do what people my entire lifetime have talked about but never succeeded in doing, which is shortening these timelines for a manufacturer, hold things under budget, actually put things out into the world on time for us and for our allies.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Yeah, we've stopped processing, we stopped building terminals, Even just the ship building facilities themselves have atrophied into oblivion as we've allowed a lot of that to go overseas. And so that's where politics in the United States, misaligned priorities, a belief that you can globalize these things and not have consequences for our defense supply chain is wrong on all accounts.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And now we have to play catch up.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Well, in some ways, we are where we've always been. It's just people dive in and out of the movie. The movie's still going when everyone has stepped out to get their popcorn and come back into the theater. So there's still coercion campaigns underway by China where they're doing what people call gray zone operations, whether it's by sea or air. Cyber attacks are constant.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
It's probably the most attacked geography on the planet per capita. And so that just persists. There has been some marginal progress in that those two visits I talked about, there were joint statements with Japan and India that they said the usual about wanting differences across the Taiwan Strait to be settled peacefully, but also they said free of coercion.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
So, that free of coercion is a nice little twist. It's just rhetoric, but it does hit the bullseye on what China has gotten away with without even getting a rhetorical knuckle wrap. And so there's at least been a little bit more acknowledgement that China's crossed a line a bit with its coercive campaign. It's done it against Japan and the Philippines too.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And the major powers of the world are starting to talk in ways that are making this more than just the politics of is Taiwan a part of China, which is the way the CCP likes to keep it. And Taiwan itself is facing what everyone else is. I mean, Prime Minister Modi's in D.C. That was tariff day. Cross-the-board tariffs were coming out, right?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Well, he had to smile and accentuate the positive in the U.S.-India relationship. Well, Taiwan's got a bit of that, too. They're a really important part of our technological supply chain. A lot of our R&D gets actually manufactured there, then comes back into big name brand industries in the United States. And the Trump administration is talking about tariffing the middle of that supply chain.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Now, I understand why. I hope it's just negotiating stuff because I just don't think tactically it's a great move to tariff the middle of a supply chain when we have equities on both other ends of it. So hopefully that picture is more fulsomely conveyed. But Taiwan's sort of on its good days. They have a little less threat from China, but they've got this tariff challenge coming on the other end.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Yeah.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I think just more broadly, they're going to be looking to sort of follow the Japan and India models. of how are they investing more in the United States? How are they co-manufacturing more in the United States? How are we making this beyond just imports, exports, and trade lawyers talking, but a broader economic strategic relationship?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And if they're doing that, that's a little bit more than happened during the Biden years. And frankly, I think it would be for the good of the order if they do that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
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