Sheil Kapadia
Appearances
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
The Packers you didn't mention in there, I don't think. Did I miss the Packers? I might have missed the Packers. 21-1 Packers. Okay. They're a team that I think just had sort of a weird year where I think there's a path to them being in the mix and being really good next year.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
That has made Eagles fans much more angry than anything the Sixers are doing. They've turned their wrath to the Packers and are like, those losers, they want to ban this play that they can't stop. So that's interesting. And then I think a team that we'll get to here and talk about quite a bit, the Rams.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
We don't know what they're going to do, but if you look at sort of the Eagles Super Bowl path, who was the one team that really played them tough in the snow and it came down to the final possession, it was the Rams.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
And you can really look at the Rams the last two years and be like, if you played every season out 10 times, there's definitely a scenario where I think they get to the Superbowl each of the last two seasons. So they're another team that stands out to me a little bit as well.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I think it's the biggest story in the NFL right now. It's the biggest domino to fall. And I think it really goes back to last offseason where they were at ahead, Matthew Stafford and the Rams, with this contract. And ultimately, the Rams gave in a little bit. It didn't happen, I think, until the first day of training camp where finally they came to an agreement.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
But it's pretty clear that Matthew Stafford wants to cash in and feels like all this big quarterback money that's getting paid out there. He feels like he's playing better than those guys. And I think Peter Schrager threw out $50 million per year is what he's seeking. So this isn't just like a new thing that's cropped. That's what makes me think there's some legs to it. And he could get traded.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Now, having said that.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah. And even last year, Kirk Cousins, often Achilles, similar age, got $46.5 million per year. So I get that aspect of it. And I get the aspect of the Rams saying, dude, you're going to be 37 years old. We've paid you a lot of money over the years. You're under contract. We can't commit to like three more years of Matthew Stafford because we just watched Kirk Cousins-
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Aaron Rodgers and old quarterbacks around the NFL, when the cliff comes, it comes pretty quickly. I think that's what this is about with the two sides. I don't know. They've given Stafford and his agent permission. Hey, go negotiate with other teams. See what you can get. Then the Rams can decide, hey, is that compensation worth it?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I think what's going to happen is everyone's going to take a deep breath. And the Rams are going to say, we are a good team with Matthew Stafford. We have a chance to make noise in the playoffs. We want him back. And Stafford's going to say, do I want to go chase something with the New York Giant? It's not going to be as good of a situation wherever he goes.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
And if he's thinking, hey, I want to win. I want to have that Hall of Fame resume. Maybe when my career is over, there's no better situation than Los Angeles. So if I'm making a prediction, it's that eventually they reach some type of agreement and he's back with the Rams.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
But given that it's the second year in a row and there could be hurt feelings and it could get personal, all those things, you never know.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
We are 100% on the same page. Can we just pour cold water on the Giants thing a little bit more? For a second, I'm with you. They stink. This is one of the dumbest ideas.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
They would be just making a desperate move to save their jobs, and all of a sudden, Matthew Stafford's going to go across the country at 37 years old, and they're going to rebuild their offensive line, and they're going to add more pass-catching help, and they're going to improve a defense that was bottom five in the NFL, and Stafford's going to look as good without Sean McVay.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
All those things are going to happen, and this is going to work out beautifully for the Giants. And cold weather instead of a dome. And cold weather.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Thank you. Terrible idea. So we're on the same page there. I thought I was going to surprise you with the Raiders is my wild card. That's the one I can see because I can see Tom Brady go like you just said. Dude, Matthew, come here. I can show you some ways to stay healthy, extend your career. You are one of the smartest quarterbacks in the NFL. I don't want these young guys. They're dummies.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
They can't get to the third read on the back. Now, I know you can play quarterback. We're going to bring you in. Pete Carroll, he's like, I'm not trying to rebuild anything here. Let's go get a quarterback who I know I can win with right away. So I don't love the roster. You're probably a little bit higher on the roster maybe than I am. Oh, I'm not. Don't.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Don't mistake me for being high on the roster.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, they got Brock Bowers, Max Crosby, and then they would need to rebuild things. But again, he's playing in a controlled environment indoors.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, so they had three guys there. So that's the one I looked at, and I thought, I could see the Raiders if there's a team that says, we're willing to go there. $50 million a year, two years, let's go, let's win right now. We'll give you maybe a second-round pick or whatever to the Rams. And Stafford says, hey, Pete Carroll, Tom Brady, that sounds pretty good to me.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I want to get paid what I'm worth.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, it's tough in the AFC. Like I don't see a path really for them to get to the Super Bowl, but it's not about that for every team. Yeah. Can they win? Can they be competent again? Yeah. Can they sneak into the playoffs and have a moment where they've just been such a beat down franchise? I think that is within the realm of possibilities there.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I spent all morning, by the way, Bill, just placing team with quarterback. What do I think is going to happen? What's the most interesting thing? So I'm ready for this.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I think the reason why they wouldn't is because teams are kind of overconfident in their ability to evaluate quarterbacks. And we see it every year. Like this time last year, this time last year, we're talking about Jaden Daniels, but we're pointing out all the flaws.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Like no one, I don't know that anyone had to take that he's going to come in and turn around the franchise right away and be the guy. No one was that confident. And we see it year after year with the way these guys get drafted high. They don't pan out. Other guys get drafted later in the first round. or the second round.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
So I think it's fair to look at Cam Ward and say, you know, there are some questions there, but I'm with you. If you see the upside, and I think by all accounts, the people who have already studied this, and I still have to look at it a little bit closer, but they say he has the tools. He has the upside. He has the athletic traits. He has the arms. So if you have those things,
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Sometimes you just have to take a swing. And like, it's different to take a guy with the first pick than to trade three first round picks to get up to the top five. Like if you draft, if you're the Titans, you draft Kim Ward, you keep him for two years. It's not really working out. He's not the guy.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
you're just sort of back to where you are now, but with good players, because hopefully you've added pieces to the roster. It's not like, you know, you're a complete dumpster fire of a franchise and you have to come up with all these solutions. So I think that they should look into taking him if they reach the threshold of, hey, he has the upside and we got to find a quarterback.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I'm not convinced that they're going to do that just because they've been a train wreck of an organization. Let's call it what I mean. They can't figure out which way the wind blows. Who do they want the GM to be? Who do they want the coach to be? What's their plan?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I agree.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Exactly. So I sort of lean towards them being safer and just drafting the best possible player and maybe saying, hey, Cam Ward's not perfect. So let's go in a different direction. And I wonder if other teams look at Ward and say he's good enough where we want to give up draft capital and to move up to number one, or maybe we hang tight and see who falls to us.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, I'm with you. I think if you're the Titans, I would absolutely do that. Move down two spots and get a future first. That'd be smart business. The Giants would have to really... Now, the Giants are an interesting team because they are in job preservation mode. And these are the teams that act the most recklessly because they don't really care what's happening three years down the road.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, I'm getting fired next year if this doesn't work out. My favorite GMs for content. These are the best team. So maybe they do it. I sort of feel like that might even... I don't know that they'll like him that much to say, yeah, we'll give up next year's first to move up two spots.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I think the Jets need to be in just relax mode. Reset everything. I don't think this is the year for them to take a big swing on something like that for a quarterback. Just kind of rebuild the culture, add to the roster and the draft. So that would surprise me a little bit. The Raiders... A lot of sort of links between Shador Sanders and the Raiders, where he and Tom Brady have a relationship.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
He and Mark Davis, I think, have a relationship. That one's interesting to me, because I think, you know, we mentioned Stafford, but let's say Stafford's not on the table. They might look at it, and Pete Carroll's not going to be afraid to play a young quarterback. He's done that before, obviously, with Russell Wilson.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
And if Tom Brady's like, no, trust me, I just feel like whoever Tom Brady wants, that's going to be the quarterback of the Raiders. Maybe... That's wrong. But every time I'm looking at some of the options, I'm like, Tom Brady's not going to want Sam Darnold for, you know, 30 plus million dollars a year. And I'm like, Stafford, I could see it. Shador Sanders, I could see it.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
And then maybe if those don't pan out.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Or are they the Aaron Rodgers team? Where again, he would look at it and say, you know what? He's a veteran, but he can still play. He's going to be good in this system. So the Raiders might be the most interesting of any of these teams that need a quarterback.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I don't think he's participating in the combine.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Eagles version of that is Tanner McKee, by the way. There are a couple of those guys who the fan base of that team is like, would you take a first for this guy? I don't know. You probably want to hold on to him.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
All right. Do you want a little wild card that I don't think is going to happen? Do I need to buckle up?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Buckle up a little bit. The Pittsburgh Steelers call the Indianapolis Colts and say, we will give you a third round pick for Anthony Richardson, a quarterback who you guys know, you don't like him anyway. You benched him last year. You brought him back in. The vibes were terrible. You want to admit your mistake. You're not going to get a first for him, obviously, at this point.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
He's been injured and he hasn't done anything yet. But we'll give you a third round pick and then you can decide what you want to do at quarterback. So Anthony Richardson goes to Pittsburgh under the Mike Tomlin umbrella. They get a young quarterback. They get a new culture. They run the football with him. And the Indianapolis Colts, Bill, They are your Sam Darnold team. They say, you know what?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
We're going to give Sam Darnold $35-ish million per year. We're going to admit our mistake with Anthony Richardson and take the third round pick. And this is going to be the trade that shakes up the NFL this offseason. How do we feel?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, I'm with you. That's the posturing you mentioned earlier with the Stafford. I think that's the Darnold stuff. Give me a break. They're going to franchise tag him and then trade him and keep a $40 million cap. Hold on. I don't see any team. We've never seen anyone do that. No, I wouldn't see it. I think the comp is the Baker Mayfield deal.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
uh, from, was it last year or two years ago where he got, I think it was 33, 33 and a half million dollars per year. It was like a three year, $100 million deal. I think that's kind of the best case scenario for Sam Darnold, where if there's a team that says, you know what, I know it didn't end well for him, but we'd like him. He can play well for us. We're going to pay him real starter money.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I think that's the number because The weird thing about the NFL is there's no kind of middle ground for these contracts. Like the only quarterback making between 15 and 30 million dollars per year is Geno Smith.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
So it's either you're a bridge quarterback and you're or a backup and you're under 15 million dollars per year or it's no, we believe in you as our starter and you're making between 30 and 60 million dollars per year.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I look at it and yeah, my, my Richardson, you know, trade was more team content than I don't expect that to happen. I'm with you. So I think you look at it, the Steelers, when I was just going through all the teams, they were one of the teams left where I said, okay, I don't have a place for Sam Darnold. So in that sense, I could see it. Is he the type of guy Mike Tomlin wants though?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
You know, like he's going to probably, I don't know what, what is Mike Tom?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, no, that's a good point. You're right. I don't know what it is. So I don't know that they would want to pay that kind of money for Sam Darnold. Would they rather just take a one-year flyer on somebody? Are they an Aaron Rodgers team? You know, potentially the Steelers.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I agree, and all the stuff that comes with it. I would want nothing to do with it. The Steelers kind of just sit back and look at who's left there, so that's why I threw them out there for him. With the Titans, if they don't draft a quarterback at one, who's playing quarterback for the Titans?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Would they look at Sam Darnold or somebody like Derek Carr and say, let's just get sort of a short-term option for a couple years while we build up the roster?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
No, I think you're right. If you have the infrastructure in place, I think the problem with a lot of these teams we're talking about and look at, do they have a good offensive line? Do they have good wide receivers? Do they have a good play caller? Now, you could have those caveats for a lot of the quarterbacks we're discussing here as well, but I do agree with you.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I would rather take a flyer on Jimmy Garoppolo for under $10 million than commit to Sam Darnold on that Baker Mayfield contract than to have all the stuff that comes with Aaron Rodgers at this age. I I would rather just buy some time because I think you're right. When he's on the field, he will give you a baseline level of competency where you will be able to run your offense.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Your other players will get their touches. You build up the roster and then you see where you're at a year from now. So, yeah, I don't think that's a wrong way to look at it. The Rams, would they if they were to trade Matthew Stafford, would they just say, hey, Garoppolo's been here. Let's do a year with Garoppolo. I think they would after that.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I'm with you with these teams. Like you only get so many chances at drafting a quarterback. And it's not that the likelihood is high that you're going to hit, but it's what happens if you do actually hit. It totally changes you. And especially for a team like this, that is in cap hell, that has signed the worst contract of any player in NFL history with Deshaun Watson.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
And there's no way out of it. Like I see the rumors that, hey, go get Kirk Cousins. I mean, where does that leave you? You know, 37 year old Kirk.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Maybe. Yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Okay. I like that. I hadn't thought about that. I was looking at where Kirk Cousins might end up, but I'm with you. Basically, we're on the same page with the teams at the top of the draft. I think too often teams are like, this isn't an Andrew Luck type prospect. This isn't whoever.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
We can't take them because it goes back to the job security thing because they're like, if we miss on this, we're not going to get a chance. to draft another quarterback. I do think that's a big deal. We talked about the Eagles at the top, like Howie Roseman can make mistakes. They signed Bryce Huff last year for $17 million per year and he was inactive in the Super Bowl. Guess what?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
It doesn't matter. He's allowed to take those risks. They had Carson Wentz on a huge deal and they were able to trade him. Other organizations that don't have stability, their GMs are making decisions based on, is this potentially going to get me fired?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
And they can't get that out of their head, where if you had a guy who knew he had the job for the next 15, 20 years, I bet they'd be more likely to say, hey, Kim Ward's not perfect, but we kind of like him. Let's take a flyer on this because look at what the other options are.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, I think they're I think their best case scenario is to stay put. And those quarterbacks don't go one and two. And you take a quarterback. They almost they're like the team that has to. They have to make a move. I don't even think they have a quarterback on the roster right now.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
And they're not going to be like, oh, let's sign a bridge guy like Garoppolo again for what we just talked about, because there are jobs on the line. So they have to take a swing. They seem like the Cam Ward team if he doesn't go one or two. And if he does, I think you have to maybe look at Shador Sanders there.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
My initial gut went to second round pick. I don't think you're getting a first round pick for Gino Smith at his age. You're also going to have to redo his contract. So you're making a financial commitment to him. He's going into the final year of his deal. That's interesting. Sixth for 18.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I wouldn't do that if I were the Seahawks. I don't think I would either. Yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, I wouldn't either. So I don't know.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, it's true. I mean, if they had a great offseason where they were able to upgrade just the offensive line and not do anything else, we might be on here in August saying, hey, we'd like the Seahawks to win the NFC West. I mean, they won 10 games last year with a bad offensive line, with a defensive coach implementing a system for the first time.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I think their defense is going to be pretty good next year. So I'm with you. Yeah, I don't know if they give him an extension. In terms of an extension for Geno, It's either the floor is probably that Baker Mayfield deal. We talked about 33 million per year, but he might look at it and go, give me a break. Like I'm playing better.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Like you said, behind this offensive line, the salary cap has gone up. I want over $40 million per year. And then at his age in his mid thirties, if you're the Seahawks, are you comfortable doing that?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
If you're the past, yes. These quarterbacks, I don't know that the league thinks as highly of them that they would say, I'm giving up a future first. Now, I think there's a trade there to be made. Move from four to six. So second? Would you do four and six for the second? Something like that, sure. Yeah, I would think about something like that.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I mean, when we're doing these, it's like, yeah, you're old. Who would say no? The Patriots, I think, are still saying yes to that, whereas the other team... the Raiders might be like, I still don't know if I want to go that high, but yeah, I think if they like Sanders and they want to go get him, I would have no issue with them making a move like that.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I like him. I mean, he played, literally played left tackle in the sec, you know? And then, and then we start measuring the arm length and I like, no, he's not going to play.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Jets are a no. I mean, Garrett Wilson on his own traded, I believe, would get a first-round pick. If you look at wide receivers, I mean, AJ brought all these guys who got traded in the last five years who have been young wide receivers who are very good, get first-round picks.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Uh, yes. And even that, like if I'm the jets, I, why am I trading Garrett Wilson? Like we're like, Hey, we know he's miserable.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Listen, this is why you hire Aaron Glenn. Come to Jake Bang. Get him and get Aaron Glenn in a room with him. And he may, uh, change his tune that this is, that's why you hire Aaron Glenn to get through to some of these guys who have just been like, man, it has been miserable being a jet. Well, it's not going to be miserable anymore.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
So I, I wouldn't trade number one wide receivers on rookie contracts.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I don't think he falls below six. I sort of feel like if he's there when the Raiders draft. Yeah. So I'm with you. I don't think he even gets to seven.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
It's a good one. It was another name that I had written down for him. I would have to think strongly about doing that if I'm the Steelers. When you look at their quarterback situation in recent years, and like you said, they made the playoffs last year. It's not like they have a terrible team. They had a good defense. Things fell apart down the stretch.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah. Where'd he go? So offensively, it's not the greatest spot for Stafford when you look at just kind of the supporting cast, but you have Pickens. Maybe you can add a piece in the draft here in the later rounds. I would have to think about that if I were the Steelers and given their other options.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Wow. I actually think if I'm the Steelers...
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I would do that.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I think I would do it. I know I said second round pick. Yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, I'd say more than the Tua contract. Oh, Jesus. Really? Yeah. Oh, God. If I'm Purdy, maybe this... I mean, if Tua is getting $53 million per year and now the cap has gone up, how are you taking anything under than like $55 million per year? I mean, that's just what the price is for quarterbacks. Tua's not better than Purdy, I don't think.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I guess. But I think with the agents, I would be like, okay, cool. I'll play out the final year of my deal. Then you're going to tag me next year for what? $45 million per year. You're not going to be able to make any other moves. And then after that, I'm a free agent at the age of what? He's going to be in his late twenties. And I just saw what Kirk Cousins got on the open market.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
So unless I have a career ending injury, I'm going to be just fine with that. So I don't know. I think that's probably the floor. Now they could wait. The 49ers could wait, say, play out the final year of your deal, maybe tag him. Just do you want some more information before you commit that money to Brock Purdy?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I think that would be reasonable, even if it costs you a little bit more in the long run.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, it's like with Darnold, if you look at it on the whole, he probably performed statistically like the 14th or 16th best starter in the NFL. So that's kind of the bar you need J.J. McCarthy to clear. You don't need him to be like a top five quarterback. It's like with that system, with a good offensive coach, with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, can you upgrade aspects of the offensive line?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
your offense really could be better next year than it was this year. And then you just put your faith in Brian Flores on the defensive side of the ball. So yeah, that's the whole point of drafting McCarthy is that he's on a rookie deal. You don't have to pay Darnold anymore. You can upgrade other areas of the roster.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, you're right. I think he probably would be. I think everybody, you know, the people I've heard and like and respect who do this stuff have mostly said that the quarterbacks this year would certainly go below the top four guys from last year. So I think you're right.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
The Chargers say no.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I love it.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah. They got to figure out the Herbert piece.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
He's a free agent. So yeah, they don't have a lot of, they don't have a ton of talent. Like they've got good offensive tackles. They've got Herbert. They've got McConkie. So that's a nice sort of foundation, I guess, for the offense. I don't know if you trust Greg Roman to make the most out of those pieces.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
And then defensively, it's kind of has to be all coaching unless they can really add some upgrades here this offseason.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
That's right. I got the tab up right here.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
You can do it. Joe Burrow has talked about, hey, the Eagles did it. We can figure it. There are ways you can do it where you pay big money up front. You spread that cash out over the course of the.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah. The Bengals are cheap.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
You can't do it if you're cheap. Yeah. I do love, though, Burrow is actually acting. He's doing an NBA player impersonation. Have you noticed that? He's going out being like, we need to do this. We need to pay this. He is taking control of the team, putting pressure on ownership and the front office that if you guys don't do this, it's on you.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I'm telling anyone who puts a microphone in front of my face what I think we should be doing with this organization. I think it's been kind of cool, and I don't know that you see a lot of quarterbacks go out there. Usually they're like, you know, that's not my job. You know, I just, I like him, but it's a business. Yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
So that, that's been a pretty fun storyline for me over the last, whatever, two, three months.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I don't know. I think if the Eagles make one move, they're going to try to keep him. But I'm listening. They could overpay, like you said. What's the price? I think the floor is probably around $14 million. And if a team wants to blow them away with a contract, it's going to be up around $18 million, I would say.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah, I mean, Parsons, it's like that Khalil Mack deal back in the day. It might be the biggest trade since like the Ricky Williams trade or something if he were actually to get dealt. When you're talking about a Hall of Fame player, premium position in his prime, pretty much 31 teams would be interested.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I think he's like the final piece for a team that can contend, like the Bills, the Eagles, the Commanders, a team that's like, hey, we're trying to win right now. The age is the only thing really for me. I think he's been durable. He's been productive.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
He's been on some bad teams, but I would say at least like a first and maybe a second that turns into a first, something like that is what I think the price is.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
It starts at two first round picks. I think it might get to three first round picks. It might get to two first round picks and two second round picks. Like I'm not even having a conversation without two first round picks. And again, it's just bad management by the Cowboys.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I think to even be considering something like that, when you, when you lucked into the thing with the Cowboys, sorry, I got to go on one last rant. Yeah. They get Dak Prescott in the fourth round. They get a number one wide receiver in CeeDee Lamb outside the top five. They get Micah Parsons, maybe the best defensive player in football, outside the top five.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Did I tell you my story on that film? He did win the Emmy. No, you did not. We were watching. My wife actually paused the screen, looked at me to be like, he could have been one of the greatest actors of this generation. He could have been Marlon Brando.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Uh, no, I think it should be out Monday morning next week. Top 50 free agents is Higgins first. You don't spoil it. I'm going to do it based on who's going to be the most expensive to least expensive. That's my plan this year. So you got to take in positional value and maybe a quarterback we just talked about to differentiate the ringers content might be first on my list.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
A little bit, but you can't wipe the smiles off everyone's faces. It usually just goes back to the Eagles and the Super Bowl and then rooting now for the Sixers to just hold on to that pick one through six. I think that's what it's returned to here.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I picked the Eagles. No, I know you did. I'm saying all the Mahomes pickers. It came down to, yes, great quarterback versus great team. And I think we knew the Eagles had the better team, numbers two through 53. I don't know anybody that picked the Eagles to blow them out in that fashion, though, the way they did. So no one does that to the Chiefs. I mean, really, it was an all-time performance.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
And that's why everybody still, anywhere you go, still has the Eagles gear on and is not ready to turn the page to any of the other teams right now.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
Yeah. I think you and I talked about quarterback analysis before and has it gone too far where now we don't care as much if the guy is winning. It's more about the film and the analytics. And Hurts has kind of been a throwback where all All season long, I know we had conversations. It's like, all right, it's a little up and down.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
And then the two biggest games of the year, he comes through and is fantastic in the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl. So I'm with you. I think it changed his legacy and the way he's viewed, at least locally, but also nationally. And in terms of the window, They're in a good spot. You mentioned it 2017. It was like that was magical for everyone because they had never done it before.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
This feels like it's built to last. They've got young guys in the secondary. They've got young defensive linemen. They're going to bring back 10 of 11 starters, at least on offense. And so, yeah, they're in a very good spot where I would expect this. You never know if you get to another one or win another one. But the window is more open than it was, I think, the last time they won one.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I don't think they're going to trade a core player if there's an unexpected trade. If Miles Garrett... gets dealt and it's a position of need and you say, hey, we're not going to be drafting high in the next couple of years anyway. And this is a premium position, an elite player to add to the best defense in the NFL. That to me would be a Howie Roseman move. I don't know that it's going to happen.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
But when I look at the list of teams that I would say I could actually see them giving up a haul for Miles Garrett, I would put them on that list of two or three teams.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Luka’s Revenge, NFL QB Roulette, and Tales from 'White Lotus' With Sheil Kapadia and Dave Bernad
I think this is the Cowboys being the Cowboys. Let's get ourselves in the headlines for three months over some nonsense, and then we'll end up making him the highest paid defensive player in NFL history. I don't know how you take yourself seriously and trade a generational defensive player like that. But I guess who knows?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah, it might be over 50% and the conversation has been, is it hurts or is the coaching terrible? Because you'll be looking at the film and all that and everyone's pointing out no one's open and they're running the same play seven times in a game. And it's like, what are they doing? And then you watch some of these other offenses and they're beautiful and guys are getting schemed wide open.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
So that's the big argument right now. In addition to can this team win the Super Bowl? You know how Philadelphia is.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Well, the defense you have.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah, the defense is awesome. Everybody's happy with the defense. Everybody's happy with the offensive line. Saquon Barkley might have the highest approval rating of any Philadelphia athlete right now. And he's only been there for a year.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Bryce Harper. How about this? Nobody on the Sixers. No, Maxie. Everybody still loves Maxie. So Maxie is on there. Whatever. Bryce Harper is there. Yeah, but I think Saquon Barkley has only been there for a year. But I said it's the best offensive season for a Philadelphia Eagle since I've been alive. And I think that's true. And so I think, yeah, he's kind of taken over the fan base.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I think Sirianni has this Bobby Knight saying in his office that the team that makes the fewer mistakes wins or whatever the quote is. That's how they play. If you watch this last game, they are running the ball on every third and long. They're being conservative on fourth down. If Jalen Hurts has an opportunity to throw the ball to A.J.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Brown and he's not sure this year, he is just tucking the football, throwing it away and running. And so everything they do is kind of like, hey, our defense is awesome. Saquon's going to break one eventually. Let's not give the game away. And so I think that's why it looks like that.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah, I don't think they're there. I think they like the team a lot. Okay, good. Yeah, I'm checking. Yeah, they like the team a lot. It's probably split on Hertz, and it's probably split on Sirianni, I would say.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah, I mean, this would go down as one of the darker upsets at home. And now there have been some of those in recent Philadelphia sports memory. I think they're justifiably six and a half point favorites in this game. They could lose, but I would be surprised if they lost this game.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah, Dibundo scared me with that one too in his column, but I feel the same way. I feel like the Chiefs have a lot of things going for them in this game. Like the way they want to play is get the ball out quickly, methodical drives downfield, and that's the way you want to play against a team that has a great pass rush with the Houston Texans. So this isn't going to be like
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
a new thing for them where they got to play left-handed or whatever. That's how they want to play. And to your point, that's how they were playing down the stretch of the season where it was just long methodical drives. The ball's not hitting the ground. Mahomes short completions go down the field. So I like them offensively there. And then defensively. C.J.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Stroud is 29th against the Blitz this year when you look at all the efficiency numbers. I like to look at Chiefs Blitz at the fifth highest rate in the NFL. So I'm with you. I didn't watch that Texans game last week. I wasn't like, wow, I feel differently about their offense. This was the worst offense of any team that made the playoffs by DVOA.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
And so I think they're going to have issues offensively. I think there's a chance they could ugly up the game a little bit with their defense and their pass rush. But I like the Chiefs, but I think you're right. If it is a slow game, maybe bump the Chiefs down and do a teaser.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah, absolutely. It could be an FU playoff run. I mean, they are well positioned. They are monster favorites at home. And then they're going to get to face whichever team lost that Ravens-Bills battle. Which would be a battle. Yeah. And then they're potentially in the Super Bowl.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
So absolutely, from the narrative stand, not getting mentioned with, you know, All-Pro, MVP, all those conversations that happen this time of year. And all they are, are the one seed in the AFC going for a three-peat.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
No, that's the biggest thing. Their pressure against those tackles is one. Two is the Chiefs are 30th in explosive plays. The only teams that create explosive plays at a lower rate than them have been the Raiders and the Browns. So they are going to have to work at it.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
And if you kind of shrink the game and all of a sudden you have a weird fumble or a weird penalty and you ugly it up that way, then maybe the Texans have an opportunity here. The other thing is, if you still believe in CJ Stroud, and feel like the season has it. I still like him. I don't like him here in this spot.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Like if you ask me if we're doing a pod in August and how do I think he's going to perform? I think he's going to bounce back next year. I don't think he has it this year. But if you think he does have it this year and he comes in and has him and Nico Collins combined for, like you said, 160 yards, maybe that keeps him in it. I don't see it with their offensive scheme, their offensive line.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I think he's going to have a tough day.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
The true rookies, Brock Purdy, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Sean King.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with House. House nailed it. Like an average NFL game, you get 11 possessions in a game. And so everything about this commander's game plan has to be lean into the variance. Like House was saying, if it's only seven possessions and now Jared Goff has a pass deflected at the line of scrimmage that somebody comes down with. It gives fumbles. Yeah, it has a bigger impact.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Exactly. And that's how the commanders want to play. Methodical, long drives, run the football, complete passes at a very high rate. So they've got that in them. And then the same thing about the fourth down stuff. If they're in the red zone, if they're on the past midfield, they need to be aggressive. A fake punt here and there.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
When you're an underdog of this magnitude and you're facing an offense in such a mismatch with the Lions offense against your defense, I think that's how you have to play. So I would not go against Jaden Daniels in a big spot.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I mean, I don't know that there's another quarterback in the NFC that you say, hey, if you take the Lions here, minus eight and a half, and it's whatever, a three-point game, a five-point game in the fourth quarter, and the commanders have fourth and six. Like, I want to be on the Jaden Daniels side on that because he's come through over and over and over again.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
And there's a couple schematic things here. I mean, we know how the Lions play. Man coverage, and they want to blitz. Jaden Daniels, very good against man coverage because he can use his legs and he has killed the blitz this year. Like all those rookie quarterbacks you named as you were reeling them off. I'm like, that guy had a great team. That guy had a great team.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
That guy like Jaden Daniels doesn't have a great team. He's putting the team on his back. And yeah, so I took the commanders with the points just when I pick every game. So I don't like being on the other side of that guy.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah. I mean, you look at the stats and stuff and they're what, top five in DVOA and they got some guys back and they hung in there and they had a great game plan against the Vikings. But I'm sort of with you. I want to see a little bit more. When we saw the Rams do that to the Vikings, I had the same thought like, all right, let me rethink what I think about that Lions defense. I don't know.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I think the Lions, I picked them to win the Super Bowl before the postseason began. I still think they're going to win this game. But if you told me, hey, which of these big dogs is going to actually win this weekend, Commanders, Rams, or Texans, I'm riding with Jaden Daniels out of those three. I think I agree with that, Hess.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
When I was first following the Eagles, it was those teams you're mentioning, and they were better than the Eagles. The Giants have been one of the worst teams in the NFL in the last decade. The Commanders have been hopeless. Now it's flipping a little bit. I will say, there's a lot of love there for Josh Harris.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
If Josh Harris wants to buy the Wizards and give up the Sixers and just be a full-time D.C. guy, I think that would be okay. That's a big thing in Philly. Franchise trade.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I think not quite good enough. That was still the defense, I feel like, was the identity of that team. House, you agree?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
No, this is because of the legacies and they're both still young in their career. So I still think like there's going to be a lot of narratives that come out of whichever quarterback loses. And I'm probably going to be the nerd being like, relax like that. You know, it wasn't all on that guy. Yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
They're going to get there eventually, but it's been the same conversation around both these guys really to a large degree. They're both among the top two or three MVP candidates. Pretty much every year you have them on your team. They get offensive coordinators paid. They get other players paid. It's like they are the star of the show.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
There's nobody like either guy. Exactly. So you have that as well. And so it's just a matter of time before one of them breaks through. I'm not saying either of them is ever going to be there with Mahomes, but I think each of them is going to have their year. And who's it going to be this year? And who has the better supporting cast? And who has the better chance?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
It all comes down to this matchup and how they play in this game.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah. I said, you know, on the show, Indian Timothy Chalamet, you know, he goes on game day and just goes in, crushes it, disappears. I feel like that was my role on, on the ringer wise guys.
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Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
All right, let me make the case for the fine people of Western New York. Josh Allen. Yeah, let's go. I mean, narrative. Josh Allen, this was supposed to be a reset year. They get rid of Stefan Diggs. People like me are picking the Jets to win the AFC East. All the guy does is put this new cast of characters on his back every week. They win that division going away. And now he gets to the playoffs.
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Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
And he's an underdog at home. He's healthy. He's one of the best quarterbacks we've seen in the last decade. And his team is an underdog. And everyone's pointing to that week four matchup. And the Bills did not have either starting linebacker in that game. They did not have Taron Johnson, their nickel corner, who might be one of their best players. on defense. All those guys are back here.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
And by the way, people are forgetting that the Ravens probably are not going to have their leading wide receiver in this game. Zay Flowers did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. So you're looking at two evenly matched teams, one that is healthier, the other that is without its starting wide receiver. Yeah, that's not nothing. You don't have to be perfect on defense.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Derek Henry's going to get yards. Lamar Jackson is going to get yards. Can the Bills match them possession for possession? And can you get that one key turnover, that one key play on special teams? And home field advantage. Yeah, I see the path for Ravens blowout. You guys are right. House made the great point that the Bills are small up front.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
And now you have the one team that you do not want to be small up front against. And the Ravens could run for over 200 yards. But I'm not counting up. I was basically going to take whichever team was the dog here and just say, I'm going with that. So I was just flipping a coin back and forth, changing my mind all week. But Josh Allen is a home dog, like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
When these guys are home dogs, I'm just like, take them. If you lose, I'll live with it.
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Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
This is where I feel like we've swung too far in the modern be fair to everyone type of sports analysis. When I was a kid, I remember watching a local Philly sports show and they took a pumpkin and Michael Jordan hadn't been Michael Jordan yet. And they took a bat and smashed this pumpkin and was like, Michael Jordan hasn't done anything. He's selfish. And I'm like, all right, that was crazy.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
But also now we're like, you can't like this past week. Oh, you can't criticize Justin Herbert or Sam Darnold or Jordan Love. It's their offensive line. It's like, all right, that you can tell me a guy had a great regular season. You can show me the film from week 12 when the stakes are at their highest. How do they perform? And I agree that it hasn't been all on Lamar Jackson.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Last year, Zay Flowers fumbles. We should point that stuff out. But also, when a quarterback doesn't play well in a big spot and they're in a certain year and it's not their first or second year in the NFL, I think it is fair to criticize them. So yeah, if these guys go up and down the field and they both play awesome and one of them loses, then no, I'm not going to be like, that guy can't win.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
But if one of them comes out and lays an egg and turns the ball over more than they do in the regular season... and their team loses, then we're allowed to. It's okay. We don't have to be overly fair to some of these guys. I agree. I thought Justin Herbert was reprehensible last week.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
For an hour and a half.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I'm retiring on top. Thank you.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
It seems like I took the bills in my official picks, but it was a coin flip. So yeah, don't let my opinion there change what you guys, I'm sticking with my Malcolm Gladwell blink test on that one.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I feel like if you lose that, you get to watch a Jaden Daniels classic playoff game. I think other than that, you're safe. So it'll be worth it.
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Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I think so, yeah. And the Texans like to play man covers. They've got good corners. So there could be some plays in there where he has to hold on to the football, make a play, and he takes off.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
That's a veteran better right there. I feel like I need to take notes. I'm in awe. Like that is a man who has been burned by a kneel down at some point in the last 10, 20, 30 years.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
How sold me on the kneel.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Plus 931. Mentioning it. Hopkins to score plus 310.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Wow.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I think he's supposed to play, but we don't know.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Listen, it's fun. My only concern would be if it's snowy, are they going with a run-heavy game plan? And then the Eagles are having one of those drives where it's like the Eagles have possessed the ball for 11 minutes in the set, so he doesn't have the opportunities to throw the pick. Great point. But, listen, it's a little... You don't have to put... It's a sprinkle. It's a tiny dabble.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I'm not going to say no to any bet like that.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Anything jump out? Well, when you were talking about the running backs, I like Saquon and Derrick Henry longest rush. Derrick Henry's is like 20.5. Saquon Barkley's is 18.5 yards. I think both of those guys are going to get the ball a lot and break one of them throughout the course of the game.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I actually feel like they're going to win pretty handily in this game. Oh, my God. Yeah, and I'm not usually like that. I've been on the fence. I wasn't sure about that Packers game. I feel pretty confident that the Eagles are going to win this game, so I need to hear the violations they have going in.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
So that's just if you're worried about getting cheated, like you said, on a touchdown where Saquon Barkley runs it to the one and then they give it to Jalen Hurts. That's one I would look at. I like the Barkley one specifically over 18 and a half yards as his longest rush. So pairing that with something with Henry could make sense. What are the odds on that longest rush? Do you remember?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I can't remember.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Hmm.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
It's really exciting.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
That's happening. Come on.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
What do you have, Shiel? Yeah, I have one of my best bets of the weekend is McLaurin over 68.5 receiving yards. I mean, they're going to have to move the ball. He is by far their go-to target. The Lions don't have a number one corner. The Lions don't play the type of defense where they're going to put a safety over top of him. They're going to say, we can be aggressive and play man coverage.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I had McLaurin last week, and it was fruitful. He had it very early on. And you're right. Two of these games are in bad weather, you know, potentially Buffalo and Philadelphia. So now if you, and maybe even Kansas city. So you get the weather aspect of it being easier to throw the ball. So yeah, I'm in on the McLaurin over.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
So you have the Lions in the other tees at what? Minus two and a half, right?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah, it might conflict you, but if you didn't have the other bet, I would say, again, Jaden Daniels rule. If it's over a field goal, why not?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
You only have a few weeks left. I mean, if you're feeling it, go with it, you know?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yes.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I don't think they have a great chance. The Eagles have not lost a game that Jalen Hurts has started and finished since September 29th, week four. We've gone through this whole season where you're watching them. You're going, this passing game kind of sucks sometimes. Every drop back is resulting in a sack or a throwaway. And then their talent usually just overwhelms the opponent.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
There's one play by A.J. Brown or Saquon Barkley or last week it's Dallas Goddard or Devontae Smith. It's like they don't have to be efficient down to down. And then what House said, they've got probably the best offensive line in football. So I add all those things up.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
And with as conservatively as Jalen Hurts is playing right now, for better or worse, they're not a team who's going to give the game away. So Every team always has a chance. We know that. But when you read that one out loud, that really rang true to me. How's Sam Donald?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah. I mean, I wrote on the ringer in like week 14. I had this piece that said the Vikings can't make the Daniel Jones mistake with Sam Darnold. And in the next three weeks, he was awesome. And I'm like, shoot, I might've screwed that one up. And I think if you zoom out, I think part of it's what how said, I think part of it is we probably overrated that Vikings passing game.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I mean, in the regular season, they were 14th in passing DVO way. They were like, statistically they, in the mediocre range. And then they have these two games where you have some protection issues. And a lot of what they did was based on the explosive passing game. And if he's holding onto the football and that's taken away, their run game was never really that efficient.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
They weren't that methodical. So yeah, I got roped back in. I thought they were going to win that game. I thought that Lions game was kind of a blip on the radar and they were trending in the right direction. But it was kind of two games in a row where, you know, the ghost of Sam Darnold came back a little bit.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
I'm saying, I didn't know if that resonated with you. Who cares about the Wizards? I thought maybe it was, I didn't know if Daniel Jones was the guy starting for the Sixers tomorrow night because none of their guys play. I was a little confused there. I'm glad you took the shot at the Wizards, not the Sixers. Thank you.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
Yeah, I was in the stands those early 2000s when they had the McNabb teams and they were favorites against the Bucs and the Panthers. And the fan base was so confident going into those games. And then you saw what happened. So really, it comes down to early in the game. If you have a few three and outs, no, it doesn't change things. This is in our DNA. This is what it's going to be like.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
But I think there's also a possibility that Saquon Barkley has a 35 yard run in the first quarter and all of a sudden the place is going bonkers and they don't actually have to worry about that. But yes, to answer your question, it could go either way if they get off to a slow start.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House
chill you agree with the food food scene yeah i want in on all of this house next time you come marion is about 15 minutes that way i'm pointing here uh and then you know obviously uh house eating i mean whether i'm observing or participating i'm hearing about this yeah yeah yeah over a decade i've been hearing about the legend it starts out with participating and then it turns into observing