Robert Greenway
Appearances
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
Yeah, I think the only thing that's changed, the cause for optimism is I think there's a shift inside the region that recognizes that more has to be done. And the graveyard of ideas, that is the Israel-Palestine question, is no longer, you know, we're no longer resurrecting and exhuming these bodies and attempting to impose a solution on them.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
I think it's a recognition that something different has to be done. President Trump has shifted the debate. And I think the region knows it. What I would expect is there be greater regional participation in the solution. I think that's a good thing. That gives me at least some optimism for the future.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
I think that's a part of it. I would expect, too, there'll be high level engagement with the Trump administration, perhaps at a state level in the near term. And I think all that is good. I think at the next summit, they're going to discuss what options are available. They're committed to a solution. They have a couple of questions. But again, I think we're in a different place.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
The negotiation has shifted. We're not looking at resurrecting old ideas that haven't worked and aren't likely to. And I think now we're looking at new ideas that might. That's a good thing.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
I think four important things have been initiated by the current administration. First is the commitment to ending the conflict as a result of the first time to bring the Russians, bring Putin and his team to the table to have discussions. I think that's useful. I think that's necessary. Second, he's reached out to all parties.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
And I think on the European side of it, including Zelensky, who has just arrived, I think, at Joint Base Andrews while we're speaking. That's also, I think, a good and necessary thing. The third is the economic agreement, which I think, in my understanding, is actually larger than mineral deposits inside Ukraine, but it could encompass areas of energy and maybe even technology.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
I think that's important, too, to establish an economically viable path for Ukraine, not just now, but post-conflict. And a relationship with the United States that will protect and defend serves an important interest. Lastly, I think... we've seen the Trump administration expand the scope of the problem to where U.S.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
interests reside, namely cooperation between Russia, China, and frankly, not yet mentioned, but Iran and North Korea. All of that are grave threats to U.S. interests. All of that are part of the conversation and negotiation, and again, have to be from a U.S. perspective.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
So I think it's early to see which form it's going to take, but I think so far, at least we're seeing movement toward peace, which before, of course, after three long years, we've seen none of.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
I think it's ridiculous, of course, on its face. They're clearly the aggressors here as they were in 2014. But I also know that if you're trying to negotiate a deal and you're focused on the outcome, then the outcome is what matters most. So, you know, the U.S. administration and others may find themselves in uncomfortable positions doing awkward things.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
But if it gets to the right outcome, then so be it. But clearly on its face, it's an absurd statement.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
Yeah, it's hard to envision that we're going to get to the next phase of this. And there's a lot of reasons for it, not least of which is what's playing out in real time, is that Hamas, unfortunately, has little left other than corpses to trade. And the way in which they transfer it, all it does is aggravate and exacerbate the tensions for Israel.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
So where I think we're headed next is, frankly, a resurrection of military operations or resumption of military operations at scale and incrementally against Hamas. While diplomatic talks are ongoing. But Hamas, again, has very little leverage left to play. And Israel's interests are inimical to what Hamas is attempting to achieve.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
And they have greater latitude now that Hezbollah and Iran are less capable and less likely to engage in offensive military operations. So they may have a freer hand in doing so.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
It splits a near fine line. Everyone in Israel wants a return of the hostages and or the remains. No one wants to see terrorists released and traded, but they accept the price necessary to pay. But the tolerance is drawing very, very close to almost no support to sustain it, especially when
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
Hamas continues to drip the remains of hostages out and violate terms of the ceasefire agreement and then publicly advertise they're resurrecting their military capability. So the pressure actually is increasing domestically on the Netanyahu government to resume military operations, recognizing that there's very little return that Hamas can provide and they're unlikely to do so.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
So it's actually moving the opposite direction right now.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
Yeah, so most of their military capacity has been eliminated as a result of military operations, but clearly there remains remnants, and those are now on display every time they do a transfer of remains. The second, when Israel was pulled and withdrew elements of their forces from Gaza and stopped their overflights for intelligence purposes,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
Hezbollah is using this or Hamas rather is using this to resurrect their capacity. So they're drawing on a population that is displaced, homeless, and they were aggravated to begin with. They're certainly more likely to be motivated now. And Hamas is the only organized function that has resources and has been dispersing aid and is obtaining additional funds.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
And as long as that's the case, they're the only show in town. So they are resurrecting their capacity. It'll take time to do so. But this all, of course, comes under the clock. And the Netanyahu government knows that time is not on its side.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
And so long as Hamas only has remains to offer and will do so in an episodic fashion, the pressure is going to continue to increase for Israel to take care of it. And the support they're getting from Washington under the Trump administration just makes it easier for them to do so.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
100%. And not only do I expect there'll be no complete withdrawal, I don't suspect that they'll give up the Philadelphia corridor, which divides Gaza from the Egyptian border. And for context, this is where the infrastructure to provide a chief amount of the external support of arms, munitions, and rockets has historically come from. It's very unlikely that they're going to do so.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
That is essentially the second phase. And no one really anticipated we ever get to that in any case. So I suspect that not only will we not, I think in short order, we would expect, I would expect a reversal.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
Well, it's complicated. In theory, they could do it from the maritime domain. It's a little more complicated. It's more challenging to do so, but it is also not unprecedented. Beyond that, they'd have to reuse the materials that are already present. And so it's not a winning proposition. It's also why they want a stop to the intelligence overflight.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
It's also why they want a complete withdrawal and they want to resume and restore Hamas control over the Philadelphia corridor. And again, Israel is unlikely to do so. And I don't think that they will.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
No, the odds, again, were extremely remote. I put them at essentially zero when this began. I thought it was encouraging to see the exchange of hostages. And again, a new administration in Washington certainly has opened up the door to greater leverage against Hamas. But again, it's an impossible scenario in which Israel would vacate and essentially restore conditions that led to October the 7th.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
That is the least politically acceptable outcome in Israel. Those that supported any sort of two-state solution or peace process were exactly the casualties on October the 7th and the inhabitants of the Kibbutzim. And they were the direct target of their attacks. And so there's no segment of the population now that supports a withdrawal Or continued negotiations essentially with Hamas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
And so you're right to be cynical about it. And in the end, it comes down to motive, means and opportunity. The motive is going to endure on the part of Hamas and the Palestinians, unfortunately, in Gaza. It's now a matter of denying them the means and the opportunity to restore the capacity to lead to another October the 7th attack.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
Yeah. Well, it's a great point. I say two things. First is, I don't know that a resumption of military operations means that they necessarily go on the offensive. This could well look like a continued attrition. And as long as the external support is denied by Israel, you don't necessarily have to do large-scale military operations or a significant campaign.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
What it could look like, again, is a sort of a siege on Gaza where they would no longer be provided the material to launch rocket attacks and conduct operations against the Israelis. And then you could see surgical operations against its leadership, strikes that were enabled by overflight operations, which almost certainly will continue if the ceasefire discussions break down.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
I don't know that it means you're going to see a resumption of a ground campaign, and I don't know that that's necessary from an Israeli perspective.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
It might. Again, two observations. First is after the exchange of remains of hostages, there's not that much sympathy left for Hamas. They're losing, I think, a great deal of their support, and there's a tremendous amount of fatigue on the issue more broadly. Second, that the Israeli populace, by and large, feels significantly aggrieved, certainly now.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
And I don't think they're going to be quite as affected by international condemnation if military operations in any scale resume. And again, the critical part here is they've got a more supportive partner in Washington this time around. So I don't suspect that the Israeli calculus is going to be affected by international condemnation at this point.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
Well, on the first point, a fair amount of aid is being introduced into the area and has been for some time. The statistics are public. The difficulty is your second point, which is the distribution. Again, there's limited infrastructure to do it and there's limited capacity to do it. The only governing organization that unfortunately exists inside of Gaza has been Hamas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
And so that infrastructure now is increasingly reliant. Now, there were those that would say that UNRWA performed this function in partnership with other NGOs. Many of them have complicated relationships and many were providing material support to Hamas. Some were engaged in operations with Hamas and are no longer capable.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
So it's the distribution that's a problem, but it's not a volume issue really at the end of the day. It's just reinforcing Hamas's position as the only governing entity in Gaza that serves no one's interest actually.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
Insofar as we know, it's a difficult question to poll any population, certainly in a conflict scenario. As far as we know, Hamas remains the overwhelmingly popular choice, but I think that's not so much about support for Hamas as it is a lack of a credible alternative. And the conditions themselves. So it is an unknowable question.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
But I think at the end of the day, an alternative has to be introduced. Unfortunately, none has materialized. The Palestinian Authority itself is serving now two decades of a four-year term. So Mahmoud Abbas has his own popularity issues in the West Bank. So I think the challenge is there is no emerging Palestinian leadership either in Judea, Samaria, West Bank or in Gaza.