Philippe Laffont
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Dave, are you adjusting the tips for the no tax on tips? So you're like making them a little smaller? We open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Is that a French restaurant, Jason?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Yeah. Dave, in fact, a couple of things I was wondering your opinion on is one, I was with this retailer, gigantic retailer in the US. And there's this sort of false narrative that when you have tariffs, like 100% of tariffs are going to get passed through in pricing and therefore tariff is like a tax, right? That retailer told us that they think only about 50%
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
of the tariff gets passed in pricing. So I sort of agree with you. There is going to be a net net positive and that retailers have way to work things around and stuff like that. I would also say today, post this announcement, the market's very strong. And initially I was a little bit surprised because we're taxing 10%. not only the most friendly country, but one where we actually have a surplus.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
So it's like, if it's 10% when we have a surplus, what is it when we have a deficit? But on the other hand, the market is speaking as we speak. And I also think that there were a lot of announcements that seemed to make it like, hey, we're going to make a deal with China. We want China to do well, but we need to do well too. It seems to me that at some point,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Maybe there'll be a bit more of a win-win versus such an acrimonious, and maybe that's why the market's reacting a little bit more positively.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
You know, when you ask a tech investor for his opinion on macro, this is the beginning of the end, right? I think I've predicted seven of the last three recessions. My track record is pretty weak.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I think for tech guys, by and large, a lot of the tech is in services. So that's out of the picture for now. But there's obviously going to be a lot of tariffs for semis and then for the assembling of the motherboards into computers. So those are the two key areas. And one of the difficulties is we have these sort of base tariffs, but we also have these sector tariffs. And we've had sector tariffs
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
In cars, 25%. There's rumored to be sector tariffs in pharma that could come out next week. And there's also been potential sector tariffs, you know, in semis. So it's been pretty disruptive. And I don't really know how to think about it. And I think nobody knew, which is why the market just took a 25% peak to trough down. And then after that, we learned, well, the government is actually smarter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
One of the things that I love to see is all these executives that get to come to also plead their case in Washington. And maybe that was never the case, you know, a few months ago. And there seems to at least be a feedback loop. Okay, we do something, we see what breaks, we listen, we readjust and stuff like that. But to be honest, I don't really know how it's gonna play out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I sort of was very conservative for a period of time, just waiting. And then to me, what happened last week with Microsoft saying that like AI had really picked up, that was like a really big deal. And I almost like coined it in my own mind, like tokens greater, greater than tariffs. And I think like one of the reasons why the market's moving up to right now- Just hold on, hold on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
What do you mean by that?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Tokens, I don't know. I put the greater, greater sign. Tokens are much greater than tariffs. Tokens, you mean AI tokens? AI tokens, yeah. So I sort of view tokens, I don't really understand as well as Dave for sure, all the AI models and stuff like that. But I sort of view tokens to an AI model is like fuel to a car or electricity to a computer, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And Microsoft said that in their Q1, they processed 100 trillion tokens, 50 trillion alone in March. And so the tokens are really going basically vertical, which is probably because of these reasoning engines, which are much more sophisticated and require more compute power. And I think the market, it's a bit unfair for Trump, but the market did not just go down because of tariffs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
If you remember, it went down because people freaked out, we're in an AI bubble, AI is not really working, what's the ROI on AI? That was maybe, I don't know, half, a third to a half of the problem. And I think what Microsoft said is like,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
capex is going up and everybody has a gigantic shortage of chips right now that i know for sure from all of our private companies public companies there's a shortage of chip a shortage of compute power and so i think that's also maybe why the market's going up and so for me it was sort of a way emotionally i got so drained with the tariffs and thinking about tariffs and having to think about something i don't really understand and i feel now there's a chance
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
When you look at the next year or two, at some point, tariffs goes away. Trump makes this big deal with deregulation. The tax breaks sort of cancel out the tariffs. We move on and what are we left with? We're left with tokens. And I think the world of tokens, for me, I've been doing this for 35 years. It's maybe the most exciting trend and thing that I've seen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And all these people that say, oh, this is the end of American exceptionalism. I almost wanted to say, no, you guys are wrong. This is the beginning of American exceptionalism because we've got Wall Street, we've got Silicon Valley, and we still got a pretty good government that at least tries to get stuff done. So I'm pretty excited by that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Well, I think you guys have summarized the situation pretty well. I would just add just a couple of small things. One is the market cap of Google is like $1.8 trillion and that of ChatGPT is, let's say, $300. So Google is worth $600. chat GPT and is that the correct ratio into the future or not? The second one is I was around, sadly, in the times of the yellow pages.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And I remember when the yellow pages, the way you go somewhere to bounce and go somewhere else. And basically these yellow links got replaced by the blue link and the yellow page companies went away. Now, part of the reason they went away is they were very levered. Google has no leverage, sits on a lot of cash and Imagine what someone like Elon would do if he had to re-engineer Google.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I think it's a much larger company, let's say, than Twitter. So the part that I'm wondering about, I haven't made an opinion on Google, is like, hey, is this the next IBM? You're going to stick around for a really, really long time, but you're just not going to be a company growing as fast as you used to, and maybe there'll be little growth, and you just sort of struggle ahead.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
or can they completely re-engineer their business? And they do have two great businesses, Waymo and YouTube, and really cloud and all the cloud apps. So they have three great businesses. And then they have this one search business. Like you said, maybe it's 60% of the revenue. It's probably 85% of the profits because it's just so profitable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
110, right? So you're right, because some of these others lose money That's actually a good point. So if you put that together, it's just a classic innovator's dilemma. And imagine that they create a Gemini app and we start downloading the Gemini app. I would love to be the fly on the wall between the head of the Gemini app and then the head of like the search box.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And they're both fighting because one guy is stealing the business from the other and stuff like that. Personally, me, I found that these stocks, they're like a little bit too complicated for me. And I think that sometimes in life, you just got to say, hey, this is just tricky. There's like a lot of forces at work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
But the one thing stepping out that I would think about is there was this concept of the max seven. And for the last two or three years, everybody is like, oh, you just need to own the max seven. It's really easy. I can do it on my own.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And I think what AI is showing is that at a time of great change, and like you guys said on the show, a couple of you, AI is sort of precipitating so many fast changes. To me, it's a little bit like the end of the Mac 7. And what we should do is almost think like, hey, what is the next? Remember when the Mac 7 used to be Fang and then Fang++ and nobody talks about Fang anymore.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And now, I don't know, like with the Mac 7, the Sexy 6 or the Fabulous 5, there's going to be a new index that comes up. And I think we should think about like, who's going to be on the new index, which private companies, which public companies. And I think Google for sure has some struggles, but it's got a lot of advantages and a lot of cash.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I think they're right to invest. I find these companies that decide to harvest you know, the cash cow and buy all their shares back, you know, it never really works. I think that the only chance that Google has to create an amazing company is you got to take some risks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
At the end of the day, the man in the arena, he who takes the risk usually gets the spoil and they've got to invest in the future. It'll be interesting to see if their shareholders, you know, agree with that or not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I wish.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Yes, where there's so much more usage, imagine you get, you lose 99% of one bucket. but you're only getting 10 or 20% of the new bucket.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
That's exactly right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
That's the issue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Okay, I'll try, but I have to ask you guys a question before. Do you guys think that the two founders come back in a very forceful way into the company? I don't know exactly why, but one thing that I was wondering, Chamath, is you bring up a very important word, taste. Do you have to be a founder to be able to impose this sort of new taste?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And do you need sort of founder credibility at the junction at which Google is at? It seems like this is a big junction, right? This is the first time in their 20, 25 year history where I feel like, whoa, there's a real threat. How do you do that without the founders? And on top of that, they're alive. It's just they may not be at the company. Sergey, yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Thanks, guys. Great to be here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I've been listening about it for a week at speed of 1.8, so I think I've gone through about 10 or 12 episodes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Yeah. So I have, I've thought about that a lot. I'm not sure, you know, great answers, but the first one is I keep defaulting to the number 25. I can't explain you why, but they're not a hundred companies. But if you think there's only five and all these money managers, you know, they have like five stocks that represent 80%. I feel the level of risk that you're taking is too high.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And that one has to be, you know, I started with a public market. I would say most French people are not known to be particularly humble. But at least if you've been in the stock market as a French guy, you've been beaten up so bad. I started January 1st, 2000. So imagine what my first three years looked at. I got reduced to, you know, ashes. just beaten up by the market.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
You know, we did reasonably well because thank God being a hedge fund, you know, you have different tools that you can do. And so I think you need to have a certain number of stocks. You need to know that some stuff you get lucky, some stuff you get unlucky, some stuff you get right, and some stuff you get wrong. And then... I think that there's a second phenomenon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Once you agree to the 25, you say, wait a minute, why are there no IPOs? Why are these private companies, amazing private companies, some of the best in the world, SpaceX, Stripe? Answer that question, why? OpenAI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I think that the cost of being public is too difficult, one. What cost? Like actual legal fees? The reputation, the regulatory, like you get busted like left and right by agencies. And like, when's the last time that a public company, I think that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Hey, we had a good F1 pilot, right? Alain Prost. Alain Prost, yeah. He won a few years, you know, so... It's incredibly popular in Europe.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
during the last administration, something like someone told me, I don't know if it's true or not, but I love the quote so much that I'm using it without checking if it's 100% true or not. Something like 35% of the S&P had an issue with a government agency in the last few years, right? When's the last time that you guys remember a private company that has an issue with a government agency?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Like, I'm sure it happens, but like off the top of my mind, it seems like a fraction of that, right? And then I also think that the private markets have become so sophisticated that in essence, like our private markets, public markets that just trade three times a year. Like, you know, these companies, they do these rounds, you know, once or twice, they're becoming pretty sophisticated.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
They match buyers and sellers. And I think that's okay. And then the last piece, which I think that's a very bad piece for the four of us and all of us on this call and many of your listeners is that There's such a view that like large companies are bad and we got to bust them and we're not going to let them do any M&A. And as a result of that, small companies no longer get bought by big ones.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And for me, it's a disaster because if I fund small companies, but now you take away one of the best ways that I have to monetize my investments. Why should I invest in risky private companies? I can just buy the public one.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And so I'm really hoping that as part of this deregulatory move, and you guys and Saks will have way more influence than we, but to convince people that in my mind, the best way to create competition is to allow these large companies to fight against each other. And the battle between OpenAI and Google is the best way to do that, but not by telling Google not to buy something or-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Telling OpenAI not to buy something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Oh, I think that to me, one of the best part of being an investor of venture capital is when you have a really big idea and it works out, it takes care of a lot of sins. You know, there's a little aspect like, would you like to play the lottery? If the lottery was capped, like, hey, if you win the lottery, you can't win more than 30 million dollars. 30 million is an insane amount of money.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
But I read that there's some lottery guys who make 1 billion and 2 billion. And the reason why people are willing to bet so much and most people are willing to lose is they all think that they're going to have this one ticket that's worth a billion. And I think when you reduce the incentive, the financial incentive of, and I agree with Dave, success should be rewarded as much as possible.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
But if you've done something wrong, then use the existing... to define what success is. I don't think you can cap because once you start capping and then what happens if the stock market goes down? Do you then have to just recap? But I agree with you. You bring up an interesting point, which is in these bundles, like Amazon Prime Bundle, Apple Bundle, There's a Costco bundle, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
We seem to be living in this world of bundles where the stock market is willing to pay 40, 50 times earnings just for the membership fee. As long as whatever you do on the side, you basically make no money. Like Costco, I think, makes 100% of its money more or less on a membership fee and trades for 50, 60 times earnings. there is a limit to like how big the bundle is before you start dumping.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
So I don't think I'm saying anything super interesting. I just hope that you don't cap the upside because that's what enables all of us to fund these new companies. The reason why all of you guys and me, we're willing to fund these companies, knowing that many of them are going to fail is the hope that you get the next open AI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I mean, this is- Phil always has to have his hand on a billionaire. He has to have a hand on the billionaire.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
You know, when I look at that data, what I look at, if you just bring it back for one second, is ever since the 20 and 21, which were very high. If you look at 22, 23, 24, and now the 25, I'm like, How is this that it's worse than 04, 05, 06 that were normal years? How is this worse than 13 and 14 and 15? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Correct.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
She can't connect the dots. You know, she's like, I want people to not you know, play the lottery anymore. I don't care for them. She doesn't understand that our system is based on this risk-taking. And so, listen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
It's just like collateral damage. You know, one of the things I feel none of these people understand so well is like all the collateral damage. You think you're moving in one direction and all these dominoes sort of fall around you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
He's like a giant panda bear and Chalamet's the bamboo stick. I felt so bad for Timothy. He's done such amazing work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
We're involved. But sorry, just one thing I would add because it makes what you said so much more powerful. On top of that, when these people die, most of them gave all their money away to foundation, which is something very different between the US and Europe. In Europe, a lot of the wealth, and in many other countries outside of Europe, the wealth basically continues for generations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
In America, these people build companies, create new companies, invest in new companies, coach new companies, mentor new companies, and when they die, all that money goes to foundations that continue to promote and do some of the work that governments were doing. Finally, how great is it that some foundations are competing with the government to decide what needs to be done?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Well, you guys are nice to ask, and A couple of you have tweeted some nice things about it. So I really appreciate it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I loved it. Let me tell you, a bit the story behind it, right? So I was like, on one hand, you've got private funds. They're only available for the super, super rich. Like you gotta be like, you know, a super duper accredited investor. You put your money in there and you might not see anything for 10 years. And then for me as a GP, every three years, I need to raise a new one of these funds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
So God forbid, we have one fund that doesn't work and we raise the next one or not, right? So that was on one side of it. And then on the public side, what basically is going on in the public is very strange. But in essence, the Black Rocks of the world and the vanguards of the world and make it that almost everybody wants to invest in an index.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And as a result of that, the people who are still active managers, they're all basically closet indexers because the risk of being wrong, you do better for 10 years and then you do worse for one year, you're out. So basically the public market, everybody wants to index, which is, I think why the max seven, you know, is so big and stuff like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And the other part that's weird with the public markets is since everybody needs to be indexed, everybody needs to be fully invested at all times. I'm like, why? Why is it that you need to be fully invested in 1999 if the P multiple of the market is 60? Why is it that you want to be fully invested when you're already down 10%? Things are not working. Why not raise cash a lot?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Can I say something? Is that dealer Larry Summers? He sort of looks like Larry. It is Larry Summers after his appearance. Did you guys get the cards dealt by Larry?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Sort of, you know, freshen up your ideas a little bit. Go take a long walk on the beach and try to understand maybe you've made some mistakes and stuff like that. So I've always wanted to do two things, which is one on the public side, have the ability to be different in the stocks that I own, but also that if I'm nervous, then what's wrong with holding cash?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And I hate to put this in the same word, but you look at Berkshire Hathaway today and everybody wants to compare themselves to Berkshire a little bit. But Berkshire today is a trillion dollar company, a third in cash, a third in public equities, a third in private equities, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And so I was like, okay, well, what if we have a system where we can be in public stocks, we can be in private companies, but we also can be in lots of cash and where investors know on day one, please do not compare me to an index. If you come in, you got to give me sort of five or seven years to do my work. And I'm also going to let you take a little bit of money every year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
So in essence, I'm willing to work at much lower fees because you give me capital for longer. But you don't give me the capital forever and you're not stuck forever. And so these interval funds are really interesting because I think the minimum investment is like $50,000 or something like that. And the conditions to qualify for such a fund are much smaller.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So there's many more investors that can come. And I look at it a little bit of like, this is the democratizations of tech investing. And I really believe in it. I've been doing my thing for 30 years for institutional investors. Why can't I do it for like people who don't have access to- Let me ask you a question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Something like that.
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Yeah. So... We got a little bit lucky in that we studied the fees of other funds. These are things called interval funds. And it seems like the fees were more like 1.25 and 12. And so we're like, well, can we live at 1.25 and 12? And I was like, yeah, you know, it's a really good deal for other people, but I get something for it, which is I get near permanent capital.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And in exchange for that near permanent capital, I'm willing to live. at lower fees because I think I'm going to be able to compound it for longer. So in essence, it's not like I'm being altruistic. I'm not claiming, oh, I just want to do a good deal for people. It's I'm being selfish.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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If I can compound capital at 12.5% incentive fee for a very long time, it's better than 20% for a short period of time. And for the investor, I love the fact that I'm sort of investing. Like if you told me, Philippe, start from scratch, write on a little blank piece of paper, what would you do?
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I think all of us on the show would say, well, it would have to be something that looks like Berkshire Hathaway, right? Berkshire is the model. And you want to do cash. You want to do publics. You want to do private. You want it to be a good deal for people. You want it to be permanent capital for you. And you want to try to be able to do that for a long time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think that's sort of what those things do. And then I was like, OK, but then the problem is like you have a snowball at the top of the mountain. How do you get it to roll and to be big? And I was like, you know, we're not very well known. I have to admit, this is sort of one of my first podcasts, you know, ever. So I really appreciate you're doing great being here with you guys.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I was like, I got to get the ball rolling at the top. And so I thought, okay, maybe I can get some tech entrepreneurs to help me out who believe in this concept of democratizing tech investing and stuff like that. So I went to see the family offices. I didn't quite see the founders directly, but the family offices for both the Bezos family and then the Dell family.
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And I sort of pitched them the idea. They liked the idea. Then we pitched it. to the founders. And then we got to some agreement and they gave us a combined billion dollars to get going. And then we're also going to put a lot of personal money in it. And I was like, great.
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And I had read, I don't know if it's true that the largest fund that was ever launched was the, one of the first Blackstone song was 1.3. So then I said, okay, I need to launch the fund. That's 1.301 like that. I can claim that it's the largest launch. Yeah. ever, so I don't know if I'll get there or not, but that was the idea, and I think it's nice to have the backing of these guys.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
You mean you as an LPA now?
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So this fund in particular starts to be marketed by one of the Wall Street firms. In this one, we picked UBS. They were the first ones who believed in us, but many other firms did. We'll work with others and we have great relationships with JP Morgan and others. So in time, you'll be available on all these different platforms.
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And then most of the people that we target usually have a relationship with a wealth management firm. And our hope in time is to work with a bit the leading wealth management firms and you can invest. And frankly, I'm like, hey, just start giving me a little bit of money.
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Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
This is your good friend, Timothy Chalamet, right?
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Of course, I knew I should be more prepared doing this. I don't remember exactly all the gaps are. But the point is, is that the number of people that can join the fund is much greater and the number and the amount of money they can put in is also much smaller. And as a result of that, you're reaching a wider audience.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And that particular audience, they're happy because if you think about that fund, right? One thing that's a pain in the ass. How do you manage all the capital calls? They drive me crazy. How do you manage all the distributions? Oh, I just got some stock in a public IPO. Should I keep it? Should I not keep it? Is it a good company like Google that's going to 20x post IPO?
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Or is it another company that I should just sell immediately, right? You basically have one structure. It manages everything. And then you get a 1099 instead of like a bunch of K1s which are...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Listen, when you start worrying about your competitors, in my mind, it's a bit of a version of the grass is greener elsewhere. And you have to focus on ourselves. It's such a hard business. There's so many smart people and this and that. We tried to design something that plays to our strength. And our strength was we got the public markets.
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we got the private markets, and then we've got risk management with the cash and knowing when to be in and out. I would suspect that other people will do the same. Hopefully, it'll be different because they have different strengths and stuff like that. And I thought that what was nice for us is to sort of do this a bit of a hybrid, public-private.
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And frankly, in private, you guys think there's venture, there's the growth capital, there's private equity. This vehicle could own 100% of a company. You could do debt. You could go up and down the cap structure.
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This is a good point. It's a bit like, hey, so what's your North Star? Don't tell me you can do everything. Like, what are you going to really do, right? And to me, the North Star is, Jason, I got to build for you in 10 years the new Mag 7. That's my job. Find the best of the best. We know who are the 10 largest companies in the S&P or the NASDAQ today. What are they going to be in 10 years?
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Some are already public. They're just going to get bigger. And some are private. So to that extent, I don't believe that necessarily venture is the right model for this particular, because it's like, it's a thousand to one to go from a zero to 1 million in revenue. Then it's a hundred to one to go to 10 million.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
To me, that's the idea. And also like the people who choose with the MAC-7R, it's like some employee at MSCI World or something like that.
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We have some public requirements which will force us to do that.
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I have no idea of the company you just referred to. I have no idea which one it is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Listen, humanoids is a pretty exciting area. I don't know what companies are, but in my top 25, I think it's a bit early. I would have a humanoid company. I'd have a robot taxi company. You know, I try to find some, whoever is the leader. And I think the point that you make that's really good, Jason, is we also have to wait. To me, there's two key things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Can I establish with 75% chance that this is the leader? I don't want to do it if it's like a 1% chance that it's the leader. I got to pay more later. That's one. But two, There's one advantage that the public markets have over the privates, that we know how to value things because we have comps and we know about revenues and profits and earnings and P multiples and stuff like that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Sometimes private investors, they just value a private company like, hey, if the last round was 100, well, this round's 200. And I'm like, but why?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's like doubles, right? And so I think that in the growth business, like being a public investor is important because it lets you at least say, if this company were already public, what would it be worth? And then when you own public company, the one thing that the private company gives you, if you want the public business, it gives you discipline.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
But what the private business gives you, which is really cool, it gives you the telescope into the future. And I think that to be a good investor, you need to have one side of your brain, which is imagination, creation, believing in the future. And you need to have another side that says a slow down chemo. This is like, 80 times earnings and it's twice as expensive and be patient.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
It was brutal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
And for me, the best investors are the ones where you sort of have the telescope in the future, but you also have the day-to-day discipline of the public markets. And as I said before today, man, you get beat up in the public market so bad all the time because you buy something, it goes down by half. Even in the private markets, it goes up, goes up, goes up. And then one day it just goes to zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Oh, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Divine intervention.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
We need to get merch. Besties.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I need to ask you guys a question. What was the most fun? The Friday, the Saturday, or the day of the race?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
I was in the nightclub till 5 a.m.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Let's do the show. Come on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Yeah, well, it hasn't been a boring year, has it? So I would say on the Fed, right, a lot of people are saying, oh, you know, the Fed should cut and this and that. I actually think that there's also the scenario that what if the Fed is cutting because things are not so great? Maybe that's actually not a good message. And what if the Fed is not cutting because actually the economy is really strong?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so I think that the Fed not cutting is actually not that bad of a message. And I'm surprised just in general at how bad sentiment is, but how good the hard data is. And we have this ratio at CO2 where we sort of divide hard news as a numerator and sentiment as a denominator. And it's the first time where the news is so good and the sentiment is so bad. And I don't know if the sentiment is bad.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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because just the market went down a lot or for other reasons. But I actually think the economy is doing really well. And we also learned two really important things. One is when the market did go down a lot, the government did budge and said, hey, we need to step in here. And the second part is the Fed did something that I thought was very clever.
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They basically said, we're not going to cut just to bail out the equity market, but if the market's liquidity is no longer functioning, emphasis on liquidity, then we'll step in to restore liquidity. And I think those two things really brought the market back up. I think it's more a little bit the case of a tariff correction or a tariff tantrum, but not a tariff crisis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So on the hard data... The part that's most surprising is that consumers have very weak sentiment. But in the meantime, consumer spending is remarkably resilient. And you can see this in a number of ways. You can look at the Visa and MasterCard earnings. But I also like just to listen to little quotes, little tidbits that you pick up in the transcripts of transactions.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
of companies reporting earnings and stuff. And people will say like, even in the month of April, consumer spending is very strong. And even in the last week, when we adjust for the front loading, some people are pre-buying ahead of the tariffs. Even when we strip that out, consumer's really good. So I think the part that to me is most surprising, consumer's great.
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With respect to sentiment, it's really bad. But one thing that's funny is whenever the market goes down, sentiment is bad. And so I don't think sentiment is necessarily a good leading indicator. I almost think it's like a lagging indicator. I bet you that now that the market's gone up, we look at sentiment in a month from now, and it'll be like, oh, sentiment's getting better.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
So I think that's what's going on.