Paul Hannan

One bellwether company that a lot of investors follow when trying to figure out what's going on in world trade is Habak Lloyd, a huge shipping company. And the CEO said yesterday that container ship bookings from China to the U.S. have shot up more than 50 percent this week. He also expects that to be sustained.

One bellwether company that a lot of investors follow when trying to figure out what's going on in world trade is Habak Lloyd, a huge shipping company. And the CEO said yesterday that container ship bookings from China to the U.S. have shot up more than 50 percent this week. He also expects that to be sustained.

He thinks there'll be a surge in volumes over the next two to three months as importers try to get ahead of the potential end of the deal after 90 days. And just another sign that normal business is resuming to some extent. Hapac Lloyd itself is reversing its decision to use smaller ships. on some trans-Pacific routes.

He thinks there'll be a surge in volumes over the next two to three months as importers try to get ahead of the potential end of the deal after 90 days. And just another sign that normal business is resuming to some extent. Hapac Lloyd itself is reversing its decision to use smaller ships. on some trans-Pacific routes.

It had been doing that to avoid cancelling sailings outright, but now larger ships, the big, big container ships, will be returning in the next week or soon after.

It had been doing that to avoid cancelling sailings outright, but now larger ships, the big, big container ships, will be returning in the next week or soon after.

After the onset of the trade war, trade between the U.S. and China started in some ways to grind to a halt. But the thaw in recent days has pretty swiftly fed through into a resumption in activity.

After the onset of the trade war, trade between the U.S. and China started in some ways to grind to a halt. But the thaw in recent days has pretty swiftly fed through into a resumption in activity.

Yes, it could. The question is, how soon will we see evidence of that? So today, investors are as near certain as you can be that the ECB is going to cut its key interest rate again, and they would expect a couple more cuts to come in the months ahead. That's because we're moving into the range where interest rates are neutral.

Yes, it could. The question is, how soon will we see evidence of that? So today, investors are as near certain as you can be that the ECB is going to cut its key interest rate again, and they would expect a couple more cuts to come in the months ahead. That's because we're moving into the range where interest rates are neutral.

So they're not stimulating the economy, but they're not holding it back. From there, if you look at the weakness of the Eurozone economy and the potential for tariffs from the U.S., you might think that you need to go below neutral. But then comes along this German announcement. And last night, French President Emmanuel Macron was laying out his plans for boosting defense.

So they're not stimulating the economy, but they're not holding it back. From there, if you look at the weakness of the Eurozone economy and the potential for tariffs from the U.S., you might think that you need to go below neutral. But then comes along this German announcement. And last night, French President Emmanuel Macron was laying out his plans for boosting defense.

So Bertrand is right that this does give cover for others to move. And that could be a big stimulus to growth and a big push on inflation. So 18 months to two years ahead, which is where central banks think about things, you could be seeing a stronger Eurozone economy than they'd expected and more inflation than they'd expected. The ECB's decision is due at 8.15am Eastern.

So Bertrand is right that this does give cover for others to move. And that could be a big stimulus to growth and a big push on inflation. So 18 months to two years ahead, which is where central banks think about things, you could be seeing a stronger Eurozone economy than they'd expected and more inflation than they'd expected. The ECB's decision is due at 8.15am Eastern.