Nick Bloom
Appearances
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
There'll be a little disturbance. But we're okay with that. It won't be much.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
It is going to slow down growth because if you're a firm out there, you're thinking of opening a new store or investing in new equipment or maybe launching an R&D project. And if you're uncertain what's going to happen, is the tariff going to come on or off? Is taxes going to go down or not? You know, is this government agency going to bear to buy your products?
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
You may wait because it's expensive to make a mistake. And so you think, oh, you know, let's wait a month. Let's wait a couple of months, maybe six months and see what happens. And of course, if tens of thousands of businesses put plans on hold, that means they're not hiring and they're not investing.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
Yeah, exactly. You see a big slowdown in spending on what we call durables. So things like houses, cars, TVs, fridges, washing machines, all of this stuff, consumers tend to pause when uncertainty is high. And we've seen it many, many times in history. Actually, even back in the Great Depression of the 1930s, consumer durable expenditure crashed. It fell by about a half.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
And that is a natural reaction to high uncertainty.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
It's very high on a 1 to 10 scale. I'll give it a 9. We've been tracking this. We have data going back almost 100 years. And you see that where we are now is pretty unprecedented. Look, it was higher with COVID. It was a little bit higher, the financial crisis. But apart from that, the levels of uncertainty now, you've got to go back kind of 50 years.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
What is really striking is usually politicians like to, you know, have this air of stability and calm and statesmanship, etc., And they generally don't want to portray uncertainty. And in the case now with Trump, he's actually generating, you know, it's obviously controversial, but it's also generating a lot of uncertainty.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
So what is completely unprecedented is seeing this as a deliberate policy move from a government. It's not just in the US, actually, but internationally. Politicians don't like to generate uncertainty because it tends to reduce growth. So that's what's so unusual about this situation.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
Yeah, it's not just tariffs. It's regulation. It's taxes. It's government expenditure. I mean, imagine you're a firm out there and some government agencies want to, you know, think of the Park Service, for example, as a big customer of you. And now you're like, well, what's going to happen? Are they going to lay off 30% of their staff?
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
Like USAID, are they going to be, you know, their budget slashed or abolished? So that permeates and ripples out through the economy. And so, yes, tariffs are in some sense the most obvious right now, but it's kind of right across the range of regulations, taxes, spending that the government controls.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
It's really interesting that Trump, too, is optimistic. Unlike anything we've ever seen before. So we have a monthly survey of around a thousand businesses and they are generally pretty optimistic. They, you know, particularly after he won the election, business optimism picked up the stock market, as you saw, jumped up. But they don't like uncertainty and neither does the stock market.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
And these kind of two forces are battling against each other. Which will win out is very unclear. Certainly in the news, we're seeing increasing reports and concerns about recession coming. You know, that may or may not happen, but that wasn't really something that was discussed three months ago. So certainly risks are up.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
Hey, thanks very much.