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Nathaniel (NLW) Whittemore

👤 Person
216 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

In other words, a lot of the folks that were head nodding along with Andre are the people that are specifically asking AI to do novel things.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

In other words, the things that it's quite difficult for AI to do.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

These are the folks who are living at the edge of the capability set and running up against the limits every day.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

So that big hyperbolistic transformation rhetoric is the farthest from their lived experience because they literally can't get it to do what they want.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

But then, man, there were so many of the people who latched onto this, not because of technology resonance, but because they're just simply annoyed with AI people.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

In some cases, they're market participants who are now positioning for a bubble, but some just don't like the AI conversation or the people in it for whatever reason.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

So here are my problems with this discourse as we've had it.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

First of all, I should note that I don't have any problem with Karpathy sharing his beliefs here, nor even with people I disagree with picking it up and using it on their bully pulpit.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

To the extent that there are bubble dynamics, if you are one who doesn't wish to see a bubble, these moments which let out air are the single best salve and probability reducer for a bigger potential problem down the line.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

Second, it should be noted that Karpathy is far from bearish here.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

He articulated that in his post, and Danielle Fong also added, Karpathy being bearish is the most mid-twit response to this.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

He gives a totally inspiring vision of the future, which has the advantage of actually having a pathway to build it.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

in addition to his timelines being more realistic.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

It's incredibly bullish, actually.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

But I do have some issues with the conversation, because I think that the critiques that are real aren't nearly as clear-cut as they're being presented.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

First of all, Andre is speaking extremely specifically from his own experience.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

I just discussed how a lot of the technologists who this is resonating with are those who are running up against the limits of these tools every day, and that is absolutely the experience that Andre has.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

Frankly, he himself uses a lot of hyperbolic language.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

He talks about things being terrible and quote-unquote slop that are clearly, in my opinion, loose language and which I don't think most people would consider as such.

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble

Now, this isn't a bad thing, by the way.