Nate Cohn
Appearances
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Yeah, I mean, we live in a democracy that values public opinion in some deep way. No one likes polling, but everyone really cares about whether a majority of the country is on your side. And there is a moral weight to having a majority of the country on your side. There was moral weight to Trump winning the popular vote, for instance, that he didn't possess in 2016.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And that gets taken away from him here. And I think that there will be practical consequence to that, especially given the breadth of his ambitions.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Yeah, and as I alluded to, the Republicans have a very narrow majority in the House, and that creates two major risks to them. One is that they could lose control of the chamber in an election. The poll, by the way, found Democrats with a lead on what we call the generic ballot, which is the question asking whether you want Democrats or Republicans to control Congress.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And they want Democrats to control Congress. So that's one risk. The second risk is that even if the Republicans have controlled Congress until November 2028, He may not have a governing majority in the House if he can't keep nearly every member of the chamber in line.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And as the president's approval rating sinks, there are greater incentives for moderate Republicans from districts that voted for Kamala Harris or only but narrowly voted for Donald Trump to defy the president in their pursuit of reelection.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And there may just be genuinely skeptical members of Congress who feel emboldened to oppose his agenda on the merits because they know that the president is weak. That would threaten his ability to extend his tax cuts, to slash entitlement programs, or anything else he may want from the Congress.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And then the president could find himself almost as like a lame duck sooner than later if the trends in the poll were to continue.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Exactly. And there are other organizations and people and institutions who might be likelier to resist President Trump than they would if he had a 55 percent approval rating, a law firm under attack, a university. The judiciary, all of these groups are ever so subtly affected by whether they feel like they have the wind of public opinion at their back.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And as the president's ratings sink, I think they become likelier, maybe even only slightly likelier, but likelier nonetheless. to oppose the president.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
I'm sort of dozing in and out. Haven't gotten all the way, haven't gotten my coffee yet.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
I thought that both in generalities and in specifics, the poll provided a lot of evidence that there was very little public support for Trump to claim an even more assertive and powerful version of the presidency than he already has.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Some of this is already beginning to hurt him politically, as we talked about in the context of the Garcia case, and as we talked about with this whole idea that the president is going too far. I mean, almost every excess we're talking about are cases where the president is stretching his authority too beyond what we would have agreed in the past the president could undertake on his own.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Should he go even farther? The president faces really serious political risk, according to the poll. If he were to outright defy the judiciary, for instance, only 6% of voters said that the president should be allowed to defy a Supreme Court ruling.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Only 26% of voters said that the president should just do whatever they think is best, even that means going outside of the existing rules, compared to two-thirds who say that the president needs to follow the existing rules.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And it's like that on every question. And they're not close either. We have a very polarized country. We're used to 50-50 elections. We're used to issues where the parties are, you know, between 40 and 60 percent on these kind of big executive power questions.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
about whether the president gets to go beyond the limits that have been imposed on presidents in the past, we're talking about a quarter of the electorate or less that's on his side. The overwhelming majority of the public is just not there for this, including, to flip the glass now to being half empty for a second, half of Republicans won't be there for him.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
That's the scenario where congressional support would quickly start to break down, I think.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Yeah, you're moving outside of the realm of public opinion here, right? Because the means by which various institutions can respond to the president may be much more limited than the public reaction against him.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
So it's totally possible the president can pursue a wide-ranging agenda that goes well beyond what any president has done in the past, that the courts and the Congress fail to check him, even though a majority of the public is opposed. That's a real possibility.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Nonetheless, over the medium to longer term, this tremendous amount of public opposition to the excesses of the presidency to this point, let alone the more extreme scenarios we're contemplating, would make it very difficult for the president to sustain this kind of conduct over the longer term.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
in a world where the democrats have taken control of the house let alone if you imagine the president seeking a third term or even if he doesn't seek a third term simply if there's another republican who gets elected whether they could continue to pursue these policies like this kind of public opinion makes a lasting change like this much more difficult i think to sustain and you know i should say that when we look at this in the context of a broader rise of right-wing populist authoritarianism across the world in places like hungary or turkey or russia or india
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
We see that the political parties that are pulling this off are really popular. They command overwhelming support from the public. They do so when they win in the first place. They enter office with a broad coalition and often a clear majority of the electorate. And they solidify that support in office.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
It's also worth noting that they are assisted often by undermining the institutions that attempt to check them, whether it's the media or the courts or so on, the kinds of things that Donald Trump is attempting. That's not how this is playing out to this point. Donald Trump may be undertaking many measures that are reminiscent of those populist, right-wing, authoritarian governments.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
But the public's response is not conducive to that taking hold in a way that permanently affects the trajectory of the United States without a large backlash, whether that's in the midterm or the next presidential election and so on.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
That's right. And Donald Trump, if he is trying to create a more authoritarian system of government in the United States, is running up against longstanding American values that are as old as the Republic or even older. And that makes it much more difficult for him to get the public to acquiesce to broader claims of executive power than presidents have managed to claim for themselves in the past.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
In a strange way, and this is an extreme example, and there are obviously many differences, but in a strange way, it's almost the reverse of the challenges the U.S. faced in Iraq. When the U.S. invaded Iraq, there were lots of people who questioned whether the U.S. could implant a democracy in a country without any history. We tried. Liberal democracy.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
We tried, and it failed for a number of reasons besides the country not having a tradition of democratic governance.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
But if you were to try and implant an authoritarian regime in the United States, you face a sort of similar version of the problem, but in reverse, where you're trying to get the citizens to go along with the form of government that it doesn't have experience with in the past and hasn't built a system of values around and support. And again, that doesn't mean it's impossible.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
At a high level, we found that the public has a lot of reservations about Donald Trump's first 100 days. In fact, I think it's pretty hard to find a single number that's good for Donald Trump in this poll.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
You can clearly point to cases historically where even liberal societies turn toward more authoritarian regimes. But that doesn't mean it's not more challenging as a consequence. And you can see that in the poll. Right.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
That's right. And that's also part of why I can't help but think that this was a bit of a missed political opportunity for conservatives and for Donald Trump. You know, they didn't win the last election to landslide by any stretch, but they often won the debate over the issues fairly decisively. On immigration, the public wanted a crackdown on immigration and a secure border.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
They wanted improved public safety. They wanted lower costs. There were a lot of opportunities here for the Trump administration to pursue a very conservative agenda that was consistent with the mandate that they had.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And to the extent that they think that they are acting within their mandate over their first hundred days, I think that they have misread it and that they have taken it much farther than they argued for in the last election and that voters believe that they were voting for when they backed him last November. And the consequence of that has already done real damage to his presidency.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And if his conduct continues, it may continue to do even more damage over the remaining years of his term.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
We can debate about how bad some of the numbers are, but almost every question that we asked voters offered, to varying degrees, a negative reaction to the way he's handled his job, whether overall or on the issues.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
The simple number to hold in your head is that 42% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump's performance as president compared to 54% who disapprove.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Yeah, that's right. And when this represents a pretty marked decline from where he was standing in our poll and taking in January before Trump actually entered office, when he was still riding high in his post-election honeymoon. Historically, this now gives him the lowest approval rating of anyone at this stage of his term, with the possible exception it's close of himself eight years ago.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And of course, Donald Trump did go on to lose four years later. So this is not a, he's not in great company.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Well, Donald Trump, there's almost always two ways to look at his numbers. On the one hand, they're usually pretty bad. They're under 50%. They're usually among the worst for any president. And on the other hand, they're not catastrophically bad. His base is usually still on his side. There's a reason why he only narrowly lost in 2020 and then actually won in 2024.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And so these are two ways that we can always look at Donald Trump. And he finds himself right back where he sort of has usually been in his career. I think that this go around, I would be inclined to take the more pessimistic interpretation to dwell on how weak he is so soon after his victory and given the political opportunities that he has rather than focus on the glass half full case.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
So one reason is that Donald Trump entered this term with real political opportunities. He had a chance to push a bold agenda that had the support of the public. And I think immigration is the best example here. A majority of voters, even in this poll, support deporting undocumented immigrants. That's what Trump was elected to do.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And yet, despite that, voters disapprove of his handling of immigration. And they say he's gone too far in immigration enforcement. So he has this opportunity, this term, to be on a much stronger political footing than he has in the past. And he has already forfeited it. with the excesses of his policy. On immigration, we can talk about the details of that.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
So 40% approve of his handling of immigration, even though this is sort of the issue that if there was anything he ought to be popular on, given the cards that he had in his hand when he was elected, this is it.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
That's exactly right. In fact, we asked voters whether they thought Trump's immigration policy is going too far or is about right or doesn't go far enough. And a majority of voters say he's going too far. And one example in the poll is his handling of the Kilmer-Obrego-Garcia case, the man who was deported mistakenly to a prison in El Salvador.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Only 32% of voters approve of his handling of the case, 52% disapprove. And it's cases like Garcia, and there are other cases out there that have been in the news over the last month, that are dragging down his overall approval rate on immigration. If voters were instead focused on the huge declines in apprehensions at the border and
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
or efforts to deport people on stronger legal footing, I would guess that a majority of voters would approve of his handling of immigration. But because we're focused on this area where he's acting in defiance of the courts, and also clearly, in our poll's view, in defiance of public opinion, He has undermined what ought to be a relatively strong position on what has been his strongest issue.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
majority support for his approach to immigration into instead disapproval that's right if there's any theme from the poll it's trump going too far we asked this exact question on a number of issues his tariffs cuts to government employment his changes in general the political economic system on all of the questions an outright majority of voters say the president is going too far
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Doge is probably the issue where Trump is maybe holding up the best. This is, of course, relative. 52% of voters say they're going too far with their cuts to the federal workforce. So this is his best issue that we're asking about. But even on this issue, he's underwater.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Not good for the president either. Already, a majority of voters say the president's actions have made the economy worse. They say the economy has gotten worse over the last year. And one of the president's big strengths in the 2024 campaign, the idea that his policies were going to help you personally, has been reversed.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Voters now think his policies are hurting them and will continue to hurt them. Over the next four years.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And then on the other sort of broader questions I was just talking about, like whether he's gone too far, whether people approve of Trump, whether they support the tariffs themselves and all of those issues, voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the president's tariffs, think he's going too far and disapprove of his handling of the economy. There are no bright spots there for him.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
So we asked whether voters thought Trump was exceeding the powers available to him as president. And a majority of voters, 54%, think that he's going beyond that. the powers that are available to him as president and only 43% think he's acting within his legal rights.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
One of my favorite questions in the poll, we asked whether people thought Donald Trump was making major changes, minor changes to the economic and political system or trying to just tear down the system altogether. And when we asked this question last year, we were asking what kind of change people want. Do you want major change, minor change, or do you want to tear down the system?
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And most people wanted major changes, but very few people wanted to tear the system down completely. And we found that 35% of people already in less than 100 days perceived the president as attempting to completely tear down the system.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Much higher than the number that wanted it a year ago.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
and they see those changes as bad we just straight up asked i mean do you think these changes are good or bad a majority said they were bad and a majority also said that the president is going too far in trying to change the political and economic system in the country i should also note we're only at the beginning of trump's term and we asked a variety of questions about places where trump might go in the future like defying the supreme court or attempting to deport u.s citizens to el salvador as he suggested he might
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And on those issues, there's essentially zero public support for pursuing those more extreme measures that would defy the most fundamental norms of due process and the separation of powers.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
I think that's a great summary, Michael. And I do think it's worth noting that most Trump supporters remain on his side. Overwhelming majority of people who voted for Trump last November still approve of his performance today. In fact, most strongly approve of his performance.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
But those voters that put him over the top, the kinds of voters who didn't vote for him in 2020 or 2016, but then gave him a victory in the popular vote, those voters have peeled away from him. And in particular, one of the groups that swung most to him in the last election, young voters, seem to have snapped back in this poll. It's only one poll.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
When we're talking about a small subsample and it's one poll, I need to put this caveat out there that maybe it's just a small sample. But young voters in this poll overwhelmingly disapproved of the president's performance. Sixty nine percent disapproved compared to 26 percent who approved. Wow.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And last November, young voters were fairly closely contested with Kamala Harris only winning a bare majority. This kind of big lopsided 69 to 26 margin against the president and young voters. We didn't find anything like this in any of our polls over the last few years. What do you make of it?
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Well, again, there's a big group of voters who were deeply dissatisfied by the Biden administration and were frankly exhausted with Democratic governance, the excesses of woke and the pandemic response and rising costs and so on. And they gave Donald Trump a chance.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And many of them are being reminded of the reasons they didn't like Trump in the first place. And others may outright be repelled by the excesses of his conduct even when they were sympathetic to his aims.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
I think it does matter. And I think that although the president may not care about the result of a poll, and I actually think he kind of does care about the results of polls personally, Michael, it's just my interpretation. I think that it does affect things he does care about. All right. Well, let's discuss that when we come back.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
So I think that before I offer the reasons why I think this does matter and in particular could matter more later, I think it is worth acknowledging that the president to this point is probably pretty insulated from these results. A 42 percent approval rating isn't great, but it's not a political catastrophe. His base is still mostly on his side.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
As you alluded to, congressional Republicans aren't going to break away from him based simply on the result of this poll. But I think that the biggest reason why this number would be concerning to the White House is because this isn't necessarily the end of his fall.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
There's a lot of reason to think that the president's approval ratings have been in sort of steady decline over the last month or two. None of the factors that are driving down the president's approval rating are in the rearview mirror yet. They're still happening. They're still potentially exerting. a downward pull on his numbers.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And the president also can continue to take additional measures that could continue to drag his approval ratings down further.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
We haven't yet had a full-on confrontation with the judiciary, even though one may be brewing. The president has talked about deporting citizens to El Salvador. I'm not saying he's going to do that, but if he does, then he's at risk of losing even more support. The point is, is that the actions that the president has taken at this point have already done discernible political damage.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And if he continues with this pattern of conduct, he risks additional damage. And it's worth noting that we're talking about Trump's core strengths here, the economy and immigration. So he's risking the foundation of his appeal for large segments of the electorate.
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
And although it's true that today the president isn't at much risk to lose support from Republicans or something, I think it's worth noting just how quickly he could get into trouble, because the majority that the Republicans have in Congress is so thin, because he depends so much on maintaining an aura of dominance, and because...
The Daily
Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far
Large elements of our society at this point have stayed on the sideline. They haven't really forcefully spoken out against the president. And as it becomes clear that a large share of the public disapproves of the president, people feel more emboldened to come out against him.