Mike Tweedy
Appearances
Farm4Profit Podcast
Make Better Farm Decisions with Predictive Analytics
Data in and of itself is interesting, but if it's not actionable, then it's worthless. What we've done is we've put it in a platform where people can take action. They can look at it. Anybody can look at it and say, okay, do this for the next season and be able to make smarter decisions because you know what the risks are that are out there.
Farm4Profit Podcast
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Now we're going to go to Mike. Hi, Mike Tweedy. I'm head of sales at Pattern Ag. I've worked in agriculture my entire career, and I'm from a seventh-generation farm in southern Illinois. All right, so you guys, do you still farm now? No, it's not an active farm anymore. My dad retired. Okay, and it ends there, huh? And it ends there. How do you feel about that? Bittersweet.
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He put this time in as well as working at the university, but it's always nice to go home to the farm and know that it's always going to be in our family.
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So Pattern Ag was founded in 2018 and we study soil biology and use that to determine what are the risks for the upcoming crop season for the grower. And then we take all that biological data and we turn that into a prescriptive risk-based crop plan for the grower.
Farm4Profit Podcast
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Well, therein comes the collaboration with Earth Optics from the nutrient side and from the tillage side. We specialize on the pattern side and the biology. That is the newest space for measuring risks in the field. Up until a few years ago, it was not available because DNA sequencing couldn't be done at scale in agriculture, but it can be now. DNA sequencing in the soil? That is correct.
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Normal soil tests don't do that, right? Nope. Normal soil test is a chemical test that looks at nutrient values of your macros and your micros.
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Well, you'll actually get a digital crop plan from us is what you'll receive. So we specialize in corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and sugar beets. And so whenever we run an analysis on that field, we are specifically looking for pathogens like corn rootworm, soybean cyst nematode, sudden death syndrome, red crown rot.
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You know, a lot of the bad stuff that's out in the field, we're picking up the DNA signature of those, and we not only measure how much, or not only measure whether it's there, but how much is there. We determine the risk level of what that is, and then what steps you need to do to mitigate that risk for the upcoming crop season. So, on average here, we're in central Iowa right now.
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You know, we ran our soil prediction, soil productivity index and we found that a lot of growers, a lot of soybean growers are leaving about 17, 18 bushels on the table just based on not understanding what their risks are in that field and then being able to take action on it. So to answer your question, what do you get back from us? People really don't want to know how the sausage is made.
Farm4Profit Podcast
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They just want to know what do I do. You get a crop plan. So with a push of a button, the trusted advisor or our dealer will then be able to determine about 80 to 90% of that crop plan, hybrid, variety, seed treatment, other inputs, fertilizer recommendations, as well as tillage prescription with a push of a button.
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Yeah, and it's not just one thing that's doing that. It's nutrients, it's compaction, it's biofertility attributes, not having the right biofertility levels in your soil. It's pathogens, being able to manage for those things. So we look at those and then we turn around and put that into a very simple and easy to understand crop plan that their trusted advisor can give to the grower.
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No, that's actually not one of the most under-managed pathogens that's in soybeans here in Central Iowa. The most under-managed pathogen in soybeans is going to be red crown rot. Really? Yep. And what do you do? And that's about an average of, you know, anywhere from 5 to 10 bushels is what we found on the 300 fields that we tested and ran through our model.
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And for the cost of a 2 1⁄2-acre grid, this doesn't cost any more, but you get 100 times the resolution in terms of the output. Why is that important? If you look at the results on a 2 1⁄2-acre grid, you get a lot of variability from one zone to another. Well, that matters when you're applying the materials, whether that be lime or whether that be phosphorus or potassium.
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If you're going from one zone to another that has a 200-pound difference, that belt on the application equipment can't keep up, and so you end up either under or over applying on those zones.
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When you have the resolution that we have with our nutrient product through Earth Optics, there's a smoothing factor that can happen as that equipment goes across the field, so you're getting a more accurate representation of what actually needs to go out.
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I would think of it more as predictive agronomy than predictive analytics. The reason I say that is because everything that we're focused on delivering to the grower is based on agronomic practices. And so we're looking forward at what are the threats that are in that field when we do the sampling in the fall of what they're going to be facing in the spring so that they can build that crop plan.
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So it's predictive agronomy in the sense that we're looking forward.
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Well, AI is used to develop that predictive agronomy or that plan. So you are using some artificial intelligence?
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The adoption rate is pretty high, but I mean, it's still fairly new in the market. You know, we've been in the market for
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about three years commercially and we're growing at a three to five x rate so we're getting on more and more acres but now that we have this collaboration on the nutrient and the tillage side and the carbon side with earth optics we're really bringing a 360 degree view of what is actually happening out on that soil so they don't have to go to one place to get nutrients.
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They don't have to go to another place to get to find out about tillage. They don't have to go to multiple different places. They could go to one source and have all of their data in one place. That's a nice feature.
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Well, Mother Nature gets a vote for sure. And so what we do is we provide the grower the risks that they're going to be facing in the market or out in the next year so that they can build the best crop plan to mitigate those risks. And then hopefully, you know, Mother Nature is going to cooperate.
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That's right. Yeah, memorable.
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We really don't get too many objections on price. When you look at where the risks are and what you're going to gain from making the right cropping decisions, it's all about putting more bushels in the bin. Growers have never had an opportunity to see where their threats are and be able to take action on that.
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Lighthouse Commodities based out of Bismarck, North Dakota. I office out of South Central Nebraska. And then we just help farmers manage grain market risk.
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So they intuitively know, look, if I can get my nutrients down to that resolution, I can be much more efficient with the fertilizer that I put out there. If I know what my pathogens are, then I can choose the right varieties and hybrids. I don't have to guess right or try to guess right anymore. And so they really look at the ROI of what am I going to get
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as the outcome of this, and that is definitely worth the money that they're going to spend on it. Growers are going to spend hundreds of dollars on inputs, right? They're going to spend on tillage. They're going to spend on all of these things. All we're doing is informing on where to put that money.
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Yeah, data in and of itself is interesting, but if it's not actionable, then it's worthless. What we've done is we've put it in a platform where people can take action. They can look at it. Anybody can look at it and say, okay, do this for the next season and be able to make smarter decisions because you know what the risks are that are out there.
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Yeah, what it does inform on is fungicide application and scouting. So we are picking up not just below ground pathogens, but we're picking up things like tar spot, northern corn leaf blight, gray leaf spot.
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and frog eye leaf spot and soybeans and things like that and those are hugely impactful and important decisions that get need to get made fungicide applications are not inexpensive but they have to be timely and scouting is very inefficient as it is today because now we can show them where the inoculum is in the field so that they would know exactly where to go in the field and look for expression so it does inform on in-season practices
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Yeah, it's the ultimate due diligence on a new piece of ground. If you're going to be picking up something to rent, you can get a soil productivity index score on that that will tell you what the potential is on that field. But it will also tell you, what do I need to do?
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If I'm going to pick up this farm, what are the investments that I'm going to have to make on these fields in order to make them maximum production?
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Yeah, so we work through a dealer network on the agronomy side. And when they press the button to have this field sampled, We like to be out there within a couple of days to be sampling. That's weather dependent, obviously. We like to do it post-harvest, but we can do it really any time of the year. But the vast majority of our samples are done post-harvest.
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Once the samples reach our lab in California, which is where all of the analysis is done, whether that is carbon, nutrient, or biological, nutrient is about a five to seven day turnaround. Once it reaches the lab, till mapper is actually almost immediate, isn't that right?
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Yeah, very close to real-time. And then the biology takes up to about two weeks to get all of that back. Well, it's not too long.
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Yeah, we try to match on the nutrient side, but kind of the standard is about a five-day turnaround on that so that you can get your nutrient applications done.
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Well, it could be all the above. So we have crop consultants, we have seed dealers, we have retail, and that is generally whoever the trusted advisor is that that grower goes to for building that crop plan, those are our dealers. Okay.
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Yeah, if you're interested in becoming a dealer, you should contact us.
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That's right. Well, you've got a few games. As long as we're bowl eligible this year, we'll be happy.
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It also benefits the grower, though, too, because if they decide that they want to measure carbon on their properties, and then they don't do anything with that for three or four years, and then all of a sudden a carbon buyer comes along and says, If you meet these requirements, we're going to pay $50, $60, $70 a ton. Well, then they have that data.
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They can go back and get paid for that carbon, you know, whatever they sequestered at that time. So it does give the grower the ultimate flexibility to shop the different carbon programs that are out there.
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Yeah. Well, if they've, if they've sequestered that carbon, they should have the ability to do whatever they want with it in the marketplace.
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We've talked about that as well.
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Give us a rundown. Well, I mean, I think since, you know, we've started chatting on marketing here since even late July or late June, early July. You know, market's kind of done what we thought, although, you know, we've I think we've digested this big crop and, you know, maybe the lows aren't quite in yet. But I think the market's shown some decent signs that we, you know,
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Yeah, it's relatively new to the Midwest. Most growers and actually most everybody doesn't even know that it exists across the Midwest. It moved up from the Delta into the Midwest. It is really devastating, even more so than probably sudden death syndrome. It's often mistaken for sudden death syndrome in the way that it looks.
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But it is something that, you know, there's one product that can be treated for an emergency exemption right now because it is such a new pathogen. But research done by University of Kentucky that I have read is that you can lose up to 60 to 70 bushel of yield in soybeans. And if you have it in the presence of a host pathogen,
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Another pathogen like soybean cyst nematode, it can be complete crop loss. And so knowing that you have that, the treatment for that, the only one that's available is quite expensive. And so most people wouldn't just automatically go ahead and put that seed treatment on there.
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But if you know that you have the potential to lose 60% of your yield, then yeah, you're probably going to want to spend that plus $20 for that seed treatment.
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No, not with red crown rot. Red crown rot is kind of a binary. It's a yes or no. Kind of like tar spot and northern corn leaf blight. We don't really put risk levels on there. We tell you that your field is infected. You need to do something about it.
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Well, so we specifically look for the ones that are robbing the biggest part of the yield. And we went out, we got really good samples of those. We DNA sequenced them. We have our own library of this DNA so that we know that what we're seeing is what we're seeing. Okay.
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So it's kind of like guilt or innocence.
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I'm interested. It's like pass or fail. Yeah. And so we're actually doing some work with universities in the Midwest where we're identifying the fields with red crown rot so that they can then test different fungicides for efficacy.
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It's very nascent in the seed industry. So I don't know that there's been a lot of work on varietal selection for red crown rot.
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Well, really being able to build that crop plan and roll everything basically 360 degrees of what is happening in the soil, that is the ultimate power of being able to make fundamental change in agriculture. We often get asked, well, why did you start with corn and soybeans? Why didn't you start in specialty crops where you could have made a lot more money?
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If you're going to fundamentally make a radical change to the benefit of the grower, it has to be in production agriculture. It has to be in corn and soybeans. It has to be in the United States. And so that's where we wanted to have the biggest impact, and that's where we're focused on. And so you ask us where we're going? I didn't know that we would be here three years ago where we are today.
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But we've got this machine, this flywheel effect now between the synergies of the earth optics and pattern in looking at chemistry, biology, and the physical attributes of the soil. Who knows where we'll be in a year or two.
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We're comfortable with crop size today, and now we're on to trading the next thing, South American weather and exports and demand and stuff like that. So, you know, from that perspective, you know, we're in that window of seasonal lows. And if we've weathered it this far, then, you know, hopefully better days ahead here.
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No, our product is agnostic to what crop is going to get planted. So when you get the results back, you're going to tell us, I'm going to plant corn and you're going to press the corn button. Okay.
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You're just, you're doing it all. So we pick up everything in the soil. So there's about 10,000 different species. There's about 500 billion microbes. And it all goes up into the cloud. And we have DNA sequence the things that we're looking for. So we specifically find those things in there. And then we build that into what ends up becoming the crop plant.
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Oh, yeah, dark matter. Dark matter. Okay, so here's how much we don't know about the soil. It is the most complex microbiome on Earth. We, as I said, we pick up everything, all of the biology in the soil. About 70% of what we sequence is considered to be dark matter. which means that it has not been identified. So 70% of all the DNA that's in the soil out there has not even been identified yet.
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So who's identifying it? Are you guys helping with that? Yeah, we've got people on staff that are really mining that dark matter so that we can then begin to discover additional things because there's a lot of things that happen between species, you know? So let's say you have very high levels, good levels of trichoderma and mycorrhizal fungi.
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Well, the chances are high that you're going to have very lower levels of other fungal pathogens like... Rhizoctonia, Fusarium, because they make that plant healthy and they fight off those things. So there's a lot of those interactions that are going on in the soil. And so if you've got 70% that's dark matter, then we don't even know what we don't know right now.
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I wouldn't... Is that a patentable thing? Can you patent that stuff? Well, it could be a trade secret. Yeah, okay. Yeah, but definitely... And that's not my department. My department is belly-to-belly with the grower and helping them succeed. Would you believe this? That's not the first time I've heard that today. Belly-to-belly?
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The human genome has been fully developed. So there are no secrets there. I don't know.
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Yeah, certainly. You know, corn, we moved almost 7% off the late August low there. And then soybeans were about 6.5% off that low as well. So, I mean, it's certainly nothing to lose sight on. I think for a lot of people, it's the need to start adjusting expectations.
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You know, I think, as we all know, I think outside of some pockets, it looks like early yield results for corn and beans across a lot of the Midwest are coming in above average. And so I think that's the biggest thing is guys got to start, you know, adjusting and saying, hey, you know, man, you know, I miss I miss my 450 corn, but man, I got 280 corn this year. Well, turns out $4 corn.
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isn't as fun but now you got those extra bushels to sell and it starts all adding up again so i think you know that's the same mantra we're dealing with our clients today is hey we got some pretty good yields out there even though prices aren't quite where we hoped they were going to be at some point we got these extra bushels break evens drop and there's still opportunities out there so what are you hearing for early yield reports i know you said better than expected but
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Yeah, I mean, I know some of our friends in the industry share some yield reports, and it seems like a lot of the Iowa, Illinois, you know, 240 APHs, 260, 280-type corn yields. I think beans, you know, 65, 70 APH, 80, 85 bean yields. I'm like, personally, I haven't, you know, sir, quick personal handout.
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I actually went out and was looking at some of my dry land corn central Nebraska hasn't had measurable precip on it since mid August and farm, you know, corn's thrown true doubles on dry land. Wow. 18 by 35, 16 by 25 on the secondary year. I mean, that that's one 70 corn. And I was hoping for one 25 on the APH. So I think there's again, pockets that'll be,
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Maybe not more trend line, but it certainly seems the way corn yields are stacking up, we're truly seeing some pretty big yields out there today.
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Yeah, I think you got both the U.S. dollar weakening and then just generally you start seeing a trend towards a little bit – trying to quash inflation, but now we're going to maybe reintroduce some inflation. Generally inflation is, is okay for these commodity markets.
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And, um, you know, to that point, uh, yeah, I think you, you kind of see some cyclical, Hey, we're going to start putting a few more dollars back into the commodity sector. Cause it's probably going to get a little inflationary and that spec money is kind of what drives some of these bigger moves and stuff. And,
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You look at the price action in this market in the last 30 days, even against a bigger yield number last week on the WASDE and stuff. We traded lower briefly, but we're back above four pretty quick after the report. Never say never, but those are pretty good indications the market's priced a good chunk of what this crop size is. Now it's, again, looking for that next thing.
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That's the demand piece, the inflation piece, whatever.
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I mean, you still got to keep a close eye on the South American weather like all I mean, you know, the last five to 10 years. I mean, you know, that's that's our competition. And if they start having an issue down there, they've been very dry starting out.
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But, you know, forecasts seem to indicate that they're going to start picking up rain in early October, which would be right around normal seeding time for a good share of their acres. If that transpires, you know, that's that's off the table. You still have some pent up what appears to be some Fairly significant bean demand going into the Southeast Asian markets through November, December.
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And then, you know, I got the wild card of the elections coming up. I mean, there could be a lot of pluses or minuses at least construed from where that goes.
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coming in that's going to get us a glut of grain that needs to go somewhere that possibly we don't have farm on farm storage for what should we do with that extra grain and how is basis the basis going to look going forward yeah that's a that's a good part especially for you guys in iowa east i mean i think this thing is really going to be you know i think you still got old crop in some areas that is still sitting in a bin some spots and um you know to that point you know
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kind of go through your numbers and say hey if i'm 265 corn and i gotta sell a little off the combine at 380 um you know maybe that isn't the worst thing in the world and just take the revenue and run with it stop some interest and um you know to the flip side you know do not in these markets go start putting grain on basis contracts with no plan um big carries to march you know you're
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45, 50 under harvest basis or 30 under whatever 20 cent carries to March almost that's 50 under the March, which turns into 70 under the May. And, you know, you'll just never, never get that back really at all. So that's one big caution, even for the guys that we work on the risk management side, you know, even if we're going to have big crops is let's have a plan for that stuff.
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Don't just start dumping on DP or basis and just forgetting about it. Cause you're going to just run yourself right into a hole. And I'd rather take the cash in hand and, live for another day if we need to. And if it's because of bigger yields, that's not a bad problem to have either. You know, that's a good thing.
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Yeah. And looking at 25 crop, I mean, we as a group did a round of selling along with the May rally. I mean, there was opportunities out there. You look at the carryout on corn today, you know, $2 billion is a big number.
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But, you know, depending on economics and stuff like that, you know, historically, if you look at analysis, there's a pretty good shot that we'll have a chance for 470 plus corn sometime in the next six, you know, six to eight months as we move into the spring summer of next year.
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So, you know, just have the targets in mind, you know, the farmers, unfortunately, probably will fully undersold again for this crop. So there is going to be a lot of selling pressure out there. But, you know, know where you want to have a sale. just be happy with the sale. This isn't the year to necessarily probably get cute with, Oh, I think it's, you know, five 50 or six.
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And Hey, if it does go there, start selling more of next year's crop and stuff like that. But I think rallies will be fairly limited. You know, the top end, you know, most of these years, like on the stocks use that we see today, I mean, you know, high end is maybe, maybe $5 new crop corn in a stocks use environment we're in today. So beans are,
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little concerning with the stocks you use especially if south america comes around on their crop you know this 10 high 10 dollar you know window is kind of the top side of that range could be back into you know 850 type numbers which that that even with record yields is not going to be a lot of fun so so i got 470 and five dollars wrote down andrew told us we're going to get to now yeah i mean you know we do a lot of a lot of analytical looks and i mean we even got a
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we have an equine analyst on staff and I mean, you know, you never know what things are in hold, but it's, it's like an 85% chance that you would have a shot at, you know, four 70 plus corn. Again, not a lot of fun, but it's way better than $3 and 50 cent corn.
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Yeah, I think, I think we do. I mean, just the way the market's been reacting. I mean, we may go retest that step low one more time. Um, but I, I think unless we find, you know, one somehow come up with another three bushel an acre nationally or something crazy, you know, we're getting to that point where you run out of seasonality. You found demand sub $4 corn on the export side.
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You know, it's just the bigger thing to think about is we aren't probably going back to $4.50 next week. It's we're, you know, we're $4, $4.20 type corn.
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And the other thing too, to keep an eye on is, you know, selling these big carries, you know, you can go sell, have the opportunity to sell 450 July corn this week on the board, you know, 30 under basis in the local market or better zero basis, 450, 430 corn for next, you know, that's for the summer corn. It's, it's not the worst thing in the world.
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You know, the, you know, big markets, big carries sell to carry and, you're not going to get burned too badly on that.
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We really don't have much. I mean, you got some stocks reports here coming up that'll kind of wind up the whole crop year, but I mean, probably not a huge game changer on that front. You know, I think it's really just going to be looking, you know, obviously as we move through a balance of the, late fall WASDE reports, you'll start to see potentially, you know, big crops get bigger mantra.
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But we'll see if we can offset some of that potential, you know, if there's some potential yield increases with some more demand. And then, of course, you got your January report that that's going to be the big dog, so to speak, on kind of wrapping up this whole, you know, this 24 crop size and stuff.
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But it's really just going to be yield adjustments from here on out from the WASDE side in the next few months, hopefully reports.
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Yeah, you can reach out on our website, lighthousecommodities.com, or just give us a ring, 701-516-8025. And, you know, that's the easiest way to get ahold of us one way or the other. And we're glad to chat with guys and see what their needs are in any form or fashion.
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Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.