Mike Cafarella

Right.

Right.

Yeah, so I guess what I'm saying is that million dollars, we're now going to burn it at inference time.

Yeah, so I guess what I'm saying is that million dollars, we're now going to burn it at inference time.

I guess I would say it's one pattern of test time compute.

I guess I would say it's one pattern of test time compute.

If they try to spin off the foundry business, does the prediction change?

If they try to spin off the foundry business, does the prediction change?

Exactly. No, but the challenge here, though, is that the tech companies themselves can't know if they're training on your data. Like some data, some log shows up at Google and like one of however many people touched it. Google can't make a trustworthy claim even to itself that they didn't train a model on it.

Exactly. No, but the challenge here, though, is that the tech companies themselves can't know if they're training on your data. Like some data, some log shows up at Google and like one of however many people touched it. Google can't make a trustworthy claim even to itself that they didn't train a model on it.

So, Mike, do you have a three-year? Okay. My three-year is that the hottest VC startup financing sector is manufacturing in three years. And here's the reason. So... So you've built huge companies out of like kind of comparatively piddling industries like retail and advertising. These are a much smaller fraction of GDP than manufacturing.

So, Mike, do you have a three-year? Okay. My three-year is that the hottest VC startup financing sector is manufacturing in three years. And here's the reason. So... So you've built huge companies out of like kind of comparatively piddling industries like retail and advertising. These are a much smaller fraction of GDP than manufacturing.

Manufacturing is one of the few areas where we don't have some straddling tech colossus touching it yet. And also you think about where the AI stuff is. can really strut its stuff, you need a very large number of good but not perfect verdicts, and you need a process that can survive some fraction of them being wrong.

Manufacturing is one of the few areas where we don't have some straddling tech colossus touching it yet. And also you think about where the AI stuff is. can really strut its stuff, you need a very large number of good but not perfect verdicts, and you need a process that can survive some fraction of them being wrong.

So as everyone said, like buying my vacation airline tickets is a bad example, but like doing sensing on quality control for some widget going off the end of the assembly line is a great example of that, right? Where like the increase in sensing and perception could really strut at stuff.

So as everyone said, like buying my vacation airline tickets is a bad example, but like doing sensing on quality control for some widget going off the end of the assembly line is a great example of that, right? Where like the increase in sensing and perception could really strut at stuff.

And, you know, there's also like various like national security issues that might be involved, but I don't even think you need that. I think just making stuff as like a great area to apply AI and one of the few areas that software hasn't totally beaten to the ground yet is why it's going to come back.

And, you know, there's also like various like national security issues that might be involved, but I don't even think you need that. I think just making stuff as like a great area to apply AI and one of the few areas that software hasn't totally beaten to the ground yet is why it's going to come back.

Let me sharpen it a little bit then. For hard tech, I don't necessarily mean that they are building science fiction objects that did not exist before. I mean that they are competing with an overseas factory churning out chunks of steel on something.

Let me sharpen it a little bit then. For hard tech, I don't necessarily mean that they are building science fiction objects that did not exist before. I mean that they are competing with an overseas factory churning out chunks of steel on something.