Michael Weiss
Appearances
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Like, if you're a foreign adversary, you absolutely want to know what the back and forth is amongst Trump's national security team. So the fact that J.D. Vance is a little squeamish about attacking the Houthis, because that gives a freebie to the Europeans, those freeloading welfare queen Europeans that he's always on about, that's useful information.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Yeah, so on the sanctions side of the ledger, you know, remember Donald Trump said if Russia doesn't come to the table or abide by a ceasefire, we're just going to sanction the hell out of them. That was his tough guy, his one... One or two moments of appearing or posturing as a tough guy in Russia.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Well, what the Russians are doing, and Putin specifically is doing, is dragging out this process of negotiating a truce, whatever you want to call it, and adding new conditions and caveats to it. So now the Russians are saying, well actually, in order to get us
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
To do a maritime ceasefire, you have to lift some sanctions on our agricultural exports and also critically reconnect the Russian Agricultural Bank to SWIFT, the International Banking System. Now, the nice thing about that is that that doesn't get done without the European Union's consent. And the EU votes by consensus. They're not set to vote until the summer, July, August.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Just before coming on your show, the European Commission came out and said, the only way we amend or change or lift sanctions is Russia full withdrawal from Ukraine. So it's a very strong, solid statement. So the Europeans have, to use the metaphor of the hour, cards to play here.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Well, the US can start to lift sanctions unilaterally, but the EU can do secondary sanctions, so it doesn't have the full impact. I mean, if the EU keeps in place its sanctions on the same institutions, that tends to constrain or limit Russia's ability to do business. But to the point that Philipps is raising, and I made this point myself,
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
One of the unsung victories for the Ukrainians in the last couple of years has been to drive the bulk of the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, their base in Sevastopol, through drone attacks, missile attacks, including with attackams that we've provided them with their own homegrown or homemade Neptune cruise missiles. They've expended a lot of resources doing this. And it's also allowed them to...
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
create an alternate route for their own grain shipments right i mean the black sea fleet imposed a blockade and that completely circumscribed ukraine's ability to make money by selling its food on the international market so the question is if this maritime ceasefire does come into effect and already there's some some issues in terms of the readouts on either side and what conditions have been agreed or not does that mean the black sea fleet is able to return
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Ja, genau. So, yes, it is very one-sided. The Ukrainians will say, well, look, the best thing that we can get out of this is fewer restrictions on our ability to export, assuming that the Russians abide by any agreement and don't open fire on our commercial vessels. And, you know, a cessation of bombings of the port in Odessa, for instance. So, well, but...
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Die Russen seien die Russen, sie werden sich überlegen, sie werden wahrscheinlich ihre eigenen kommerziellen Wessel benutzen, um Waffen und Materialien zu transportieren, weil sie das sowieso tun. Und so weit es geht, boom, ich meine, sie können dich immer noch bomben und sie werden nur sagen, naja, das sind die Ukrainer, die sich bomben, falsche Flaggen zu machen und es auf Moskau zu blöden.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Mark Palmaropoulos hat mir gesagt, wenn du ein CIA-Kommissar bist und diese Daten auf einen Feind der Vereinigten Staaten bekommst, bekommst du einen Medal. Das ist, wie wertvoll diese Dinge sind. Es sieht mir sicherlich so aus, und ich habe gerade ein paar kurze Beratungen darüber gemacht, dank der Atlantik-Erklärung.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Und wissend von Donald Trump, wird er wahrscheinlich Putin's Wort über seine eigene Intelligenz glauben.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Yeah, which never happened. The Ukrainian troops were not encircled in Kursk. The Ukrainian military has been quite clear about this. Our own military has come out and said this is not the case. Our own intelligence community has come out and said this is not the case. But he maintains that this is happening. And the only people who claim that this is happening are the Russians and Putin.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
And this idea that, oh well, the way that Vladimir is thinking is just the way I was thinking as a real estate developer. As a shady real estate developer. Just the tough negotiations in the closing room and all this. No, no. And this is the problem with Steve Witkoff. You have these sort of tender-headed, outer borough
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
You know, Goombas, who made a lot of money in developing properties in New York and beyond, or the Middle East in Witkowskis. And they think that they, you know, they have found their equal in a Russian dictator who was trained as a KGB case officer. Und ich meine, das ist furchtbar für mich.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Wittkopf, er erinnert mich an Armin Hammond, den Industrie- und Pharmazeutikern in den 1920er-Jahren, der so besattelt wurde mit der Sowjetunion.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Armin Hammer ist mit dieser Familie verbunden, ja. Aber diese Jungs waren, ich meine... Er hat die Flasche der Frauen gegessen, aber ich dachte, das ist ein sehr... Ja, genau. He is not curious, he is not skeptical, he is not critically minded when it comes to what the Russians are telling him.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
He goes to Moscow, Putin releases this American school teacher as a goodwill gesture and dazzles him, charms him. Das macht ihn denken, dass das sein bester Freund ist, den er sein ganzes Leben erwartet hat. Ich meine, er hat es wirklich gesagt. Wir haben eine tolle Beziehung. Und ich denke, er ist in guter Glauben verhalten. All das ist natürlich nicht wahr. Aber er hat sich überzeugt.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Es sieht mir sicherlich so aus, als ob einige Leute sich gestern an den Kongress vorgeschlagen hätten, indem sie sagten, dass alles unbeklasset war. Nun, es kann sein, dass Donald Trump sich entschieden hat, es nach dem Faktum zu deklassifizieren. Aber die Chronologie dieses, weißt du, What did you know and when kind of thing is going to be key here. So I don't think the story is going away, Tim.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
No, he sincerely believes what he's being sold. And I mean, on whose behalf is he really negotiating now? He sounds like Russia's special envoy.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Not just supporting the Houthis, but providing them with targeting data to go after commercial vessels in the region, according to the Wall Street Journal. So yes, I mean, Russia has a strategic relationship with Iran, which is the patron of the Houthis, which has armed the Houthis and propped them up. This is the kind of weird...
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
sort of dynamic, I guess, that's taking place in Trump world, which is they're very pro-Israel, they want to get tough on Iran, threaten to bomb the hell out of Iran's nuclear program, go after Hamas, go after Hezbollah, go after the Houthis. put the onus on Iran, but they don't want to hear that doing that sort of upsets the apple cart with their new best friends, the Russians, right?
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
They've managed to kind of keep these two ledgers separate. And, you know, it reminds me, frankly, of Term One, when that great strategic genius, Michael Flynn, I mean, his grand design was exactly this, to separate, to cleave Teheran away from Moscow and for us to befriend the Russians to do counterterrorism jointly. And we all saw how that worked out.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Fundamentally, the Russians don't care that much about their allies and partners. We've seen this now in Syria, right? I mean, Putin kind of shrugged when Bashar al-Assads regime just, it didn't even crumble, it just evaporated. And now he's trying to do deals with HTS, the new government in Damascus, to keep the Russian military infrastructure in place there. So
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
The Russians have no problem throwing their own friends under the bus. They do this all the time. But the biggest strategic objective that they have is to get the United States to do this realignment, right?
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Abandon our allies in Europe, abandon the Ukrainians and basically be open for business with the Russians and frankly invite their intelligence officers back to American soil, which is what Marco Rubio is more or less saying when he says we're going to start reopening their embassies and consulates here.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Well, the whole Hammer family going back in the 20s and 30s, just deeply, deeply compromised by the Soviets. So yeah, Army, I mean, hey, I thought he was the star in, what was that movie that made... Call Me By Your Name?
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
By the way, I love the... Waltz setzt den Timer für die Zerlegerung auf vier Wochen. Ich verabschiede mich mit meinem Hund, der auf Signal ist, und wir haben eine Drehzeit für die Zerlegerung von drei Tagen. Humphrey bekommt seine Haare geschnitten, das ist, glaube ich, weniger sensibel oder mehr sensibel als, wann und wo wir die Houthis aufbauen.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Die Trump-Administration-Linie ist sehr klar daran. Verzeihen, Verzeihen, Verzeihen, Angriff, Angriff, Angriff. Es ist wie das Spielbuch von Roy Cohn. Es ist keine Frage, dass jeder ein Ei auf seinem Gesicht hat. Es ist keine Frage, dass sie realisieren, was das für eine riesige Scheißarbeit ist. Es ist keine Frage, in meiner Meinung, dass die Leute gefeuert werden sollen oder resonieren sollen.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Aber sie werden es nicht machen, weil das nur ein Geschenk für die Medien ist. Und, du weißt, der große, schlechte Wolf, Jeffrey Goldberg, der evidenterweise seinen Weg gehackt hat. Wir haben Elon Musk, unseren besten Mann im Fall, um herauszufinden, ob Jeff Goldberg...
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
He got sucked in to a signal chat that you have to be added to by a member of the chat.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Right, so they're accusing him or... dass Jeff Goldberg einen Spionage verurteilt hat. Das ist ein Verbrechen. Jeff ist ein Kriminal und das ist, wie er das erreicht hat. Aber die kritische Sache hier ist, dass niemand die Authentizität dieser Kommunikation diskutiert. Wir haben Dokumentarbeweise, wir haben Bildschirme der Signalchecks.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Was jetzt passieren wird, ist, dass ich hoffe, dass diese Leute vor dem Kongress zurückgebracht werden. vor dem Senat und gegrillt und gesagt, dass es keine Art und Weise war, dass diese Sachen nicht klassifiziert wurden. Man kann das jetzt, übrigens, verfolgen.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Und wenn es so ist, dass Tulsi Gabbard und Hexeth und Waltz sich verurteilt haben, dann war das lange, lange her, Tim, ein Krimi, der von der Verwaltung und der Gefängnis verurteilt werden kann. Ich denke nicht, dass die DOJ und diese Administration so etwas machen können. Ich bin überrascht über Tesla-Vandals.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Ein Freund von mir hat es gut dargestellt. Es sieht so aus, als wäre er in einem Film von Steven Seagal, in dem Seagal 90% der Filme verwendet hat, weil er so obese ist, in einer Schuhe, wie ein Lärm von Orten. Ich meine, es ist in Crayon geschrieben. Es ist wie Cosplay. Es ist wie, ich will ein Militärkommandant sein. Und das ist, was ich in Filmen und auf TV gesehen habe.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Also klingt es autoritär, richtig? Ich denke, jeder ist in dieser Regierung. Natürlich. Es ist wie ein Goat-Rodeo. Zuerst einmal, lassen wir uns hier einen Schritt zurücknehmen. Es gibt einige andere kontextuelle Dinge, die diskutiert werden müssen. Nummer eins. You're not supposed to have Signal on your private devices communicating with other members of the national security team.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
That's just a cardinal rule. In fact, former CIA people told me that the CIA messaged out, here's what you need to be aware of with Signal and its vulnerabilities. That's one. This idea that Ratcliffe installed Signal on his computer at the agency the day he took the check. No. I mean, this is just insane. Number two...
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Tulsi Gabbard war im Ausland, als diese Botschaften nach und nach gegangen sind. Ich glaube, sie war in Indien. Steve Witkoff, Trumps Anvoi zu, ich glaube, alles jetzt, war in Russland. In Russland. Mit Signal auf seinem Telefon in Russland, als diese Chats stattfanden.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Wenn man Wi-Fi benutzt, wenn man Bluetooth aufhört in Russland, und man ist jemand wie Steve Witkoff, von dem die Russen sehr interessiert sind, um herauszufinden,
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Maybe they got some pretty good insights into how to psychologically manipulate this guy as a result of hacking his phone. I mean, everything about this is just... Radioactively stupid. And just the sort of cardinal rules, do not do this if you're in a position of authority and you have top secret clearance, which all of these people do.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Und ich weiß nicht, wie viele Geräte Tulsi Gabbard hatte, ob sie noch das Telefon hat, das sie hatte, bevor sie DNI war. Aber das ist jemand, der zu der Vatikan reist, eine Reise bezahlt hat, von einer Foundation, die von einem belgischen Geschäftsführer, Pierre Louvrier, die ein russisches Intelligenzassistent ist.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
literally photographs of him with Igor Girkin, the FSB colonel and war criminal who led the separatist movement in Ukraine during the first invasion in 2014, right? And Louvrier is like, just a Google search of this guy's social. My partner and colleague Christo Grozev did a deep dive investigation into him. Is he in the phone too? He was like her sponsor? His foundation paid for the trip.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
This is why she was, you know, the New York Times had a story about she was flagged in her international travel. It's because of that trip. I mean, the Russians are doing all kinds of shady things in the Vatican. Don't ask me why. It's like the new Vienna for them.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Hey, I've seen Conclave, so I get it. So is she, does she have him in the contacts? You know, has he had access to her phone? These are all kinds of questions that, you know, even before you get into a counterintelligence situation, zu frame of mind. You have to be asking and wondering. And yeah, she looked deeply, deeply uncomfortable.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Her apologists and defenders, when she was nominated for this position, their kind of fallback on, well, no, no, no, it's total McCarthyist claptrap that she's a Russian asset. Well, she's just not very bright. That's why she's regurgitating RT talking points on Syria and all that. Okay, so she's not terribly bright, but let's put her in a position von der gesamten US-Intelligenz-Gemeinschaft.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
I mean, you've got the timings of the strikes. You've got the platforms being used. There's no way that this was unclassified data, right? I'm talking to former CIA officers, including a former CIA lawyer, who says... This is all top secret. I mean, even more critical than the attack plans themselves is the policy discussion, right?
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Die Aufmerksamkeit, die du davon bekommst, abgesehen von, wie ich sage, der Politik, zurück und forth, wer was denkt, und... die Art von Kette, die mitgebracht wird. Und zum Beispiel gab es auch eine Bewertung von Schadensersatz. Als Walter Hegseth sagte, dass das Gebäude zerstört wurde und wir die Houthi-Missil-Maschinen in seine Freundin gebracht haben.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Das ist einfach zu zusammenfassen, wer der Ziel war. Das ist auch eine wertvolle Intelligenz. Aber man bekommt einfach den Sinn, wenn man in einem hostilem Staat oder einem fremden Gegner ist, dass diese Leute nicht wissen, was sie tun. Und dass sie tief, tief unsicher sind. In the literal sense of the word. They're easily infiltrated. And that's also a windfall.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Because then you know, I just have to shadow the national security advisor or his staff and get to know these people. And they've got classified on their personal devices. That's great insight into how the United States government is being run. And then added to what Jeff told you yesterday, which is that a CIA officer's name was mentioned in the chat.
The Bulwark Podcast
S2 Ep1008: Michael Weiss, Ben Smith, and Annie Karni: Radioactively Stupid
Ratcliffe's chief of staff, I think, has now been reported. Whether or not that was somebody undercover, it doesn't matter. You still don't do that kind of thing.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Well, as they said in the movie Quiz Show, I'd like to take the last question first, please. Let's start with J.D.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
OK, so let's start with Ukraine. 20 to 30,000 troops from, quote, some random country that hasn't fought a war in 20 to 30 years.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
The idea of sending European peacekeepers to Ukraine has come from two not so random countries, the United Kingdom and France, both of which, up until quite recently, were engaged in active combat in Afghanistan on behalf of the United States, because the only time in the history of NATO that Article 5 was invoked was after 9-11.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
So what's happened is now the UK press and UK parliamentarians and policymakers are seething. They think J.D. Fance, as one pundit put it, is a vice president as aggressive as he is dumb. It's one thing to have disagreements in foreign policy, to have a cordial dispute with our cousins abroad. It's another thing to piss on the graves of dead British soldiers. And that's what Vance is doing.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Now, he's trying furiously to wind this back saying, oh, I didn't mean the UK. I didn't mean France. I meant other countries.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Well, let's be direct. Which country does he refer to? Because every country that has even in principle considered being part of this Anglo-French peacekeeping force is either a NATO country and or has also fought in Afghanistan. And as far as military equipment, let's, for instance, take the Estonians, where I just was last week.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
They have emptied their stocks of a certain kind of howitzer and given them all to Ukraine, which Ukraine is deeply grateful for. And they also suffered, I think, the highest per capita rate of casualties in Afghanistan. It's a small country, 1.3 million people. But when they joined NATO in 2004, they were serious about it. And they fought and bled and died on behalf of Americans.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
So, I mean, this is a guy who is within the space of a few weeks dead. essentially trying to destroy the transatlantic relationship.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
He goes to Munich and gives this speech, in effect endorsing Alternative for Germany, the far-right party that didn't do as well as people were fearing it might in the last German election, which is also considered or under suspicion as being an extremist group by Germans' own domestic security service, pissing off the Germans, including the now incoming Chancellor Merz,
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
who has basically said America's intervention in German politics, meaning Vance and also Musk who explicitly endorsed AFD, is tantamount to what the Russians do. This is no small thing for Germany's foremost Atlanticist to be saying that America is now engaged in hostile action against this country. And now,
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
This deeply insulting, shambolic claim that the UK is Madagascar at the level of geopolitics and hasn't fought in active combat.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And, you know, I mean, dripping with contempt for Ukraine, telling Zelensky you take journalists and policymakers on propaganda tours. By that, I think he's referring to going to Bucha, an European, the site of Russian massacres, right, which has a deeply galvanizing effect on anybody who's been to these places. including European leaders.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And one of the reasons that Europeans are so pro-Ukraine is they've seen the horrors of occupation and war firsthand. I do not believe this line that's being peddled by MAGA and by including pro-Ukraine elements of MAGA that, oh, this was just a misunderstanding. It was actually Zelensky's fault for fact-checking the president. I think this was an ambush.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
I think Vance's presence there was designed to provoke this kind of reaction from Zelensky and also essentially Act as a spoiler for this rather weak tea minerals deal, which, by the way, the Ukrainians first proposed to the United States. as a way of getting security guarantees that are now absent from this memorandum of understanding that Trump is so desperate, apparently, to have him signed.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
So all Zelensky did was say, quite rightly, look, you know, we're for peace. We're for ending this war. We've suffered the most. But we can't do it unless we know that there's something that's going to stop the Russians from coming back and doing it again. And, you know, Vance does not want to commit to anything concrete in that regard. And keep in mind, Tim, the U.S.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
intelligence, as of mid-February, assessed Putin himself is not serious about a meaningful peace. So when Zelensky says in an interview, this war is going to go on for a very long time, he's not saying that as an endorsement of that assessment. He's just saying that that's That's just the state of play as per America's own spies. Right.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And Donald Trump goes ballistic and says that's not that's the worst kind of thing you could say at this moment. So I think that the real premise here is and this is now being tacitly acknowledged by MAGA. Our president is an emotional toddler. He is so sensitive. His fifis are so important in any matter of statecraft that, you know, the slightest miscue, you don't wear a suit and tie.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
You kind of sit there with a scowl. You dare to contradict or correct him. And he's basically willing to license genocide on European soil. So you better watch your step, everybody. What are we talking about here? The problem is the man, not the fucking protocol and the engagement with him, right? Totally.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Well, and there's also a very recent historical precedent for being deeply suspicious about America's resolve and commitment to saving Ukraine. Let me read you a headline from the New York Times dated July 25, 2017. Headline, Trump finds reason for the U.S. to remain in Afghanistan, colon, minerals. Okay.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And by the way, you know who's profiting from Afghan's sizable rare earths and mineral deposits now? The Russians, the GRU, Russian military intelligence specifically, which is using it or was using it as a front for money laundering to pay the Taliban money to go after American and British and coalition soldiers.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
That was one of the recent investigations the insider did, naming names of the entire Afghan Taliban network. But leave that to one side. Absolutely. Let's say the United States signs some deal with the government of Ukraine to have the government of Ukraine allow access or revenue generation to the United States based on its mineral deposits?
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
What happens if the Russians decide to take more territory, including the land where these deposits are located, right? What's to stop the United States, Trump in particular, and especially from going to Putin and saying, well, you control this terrain now, so I guess I have to do business with you. That seems way more likely than he's going to go to war with Putin over the minerals.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
No, he would just cut the deal with Putin. Exactly. I mean, there are American lives in Ukraine, volunteers, diplomats, people who do go pretty close to the front line. It hasn't stopped the Russians from dropping bombs. I was in Kiev actually just before the war and then immediately after the liberation of the city.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And diplomats there were saying what a near-run thing it was, those who actually remained. In fact, one of the diplomats I met in the weeks before the full-scale invasion, I had to meet him in a cafe because there were bomb scares being called in to all the major embassies of NATO at that time. And guess where the bomb scares were coming from?
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
So security guarantees mean you have soldiers on the ground with kit or, you know, you are prepared to protect the skies of Ukraine. You are prepared to do X, Y and Z. You are going to essentially go to war on behalf of this country if it's invaded again. That's what the Ukrainians are looking for. Not, you know, well, we send some hedge fund guys to a mine in Odessa and, you know, there you go.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
We're safe and secure now.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Well, I would say this one of the and this is unfortunately being eclipsed by the sort of inanity of the current news cycle. But one of the tragic ironies of giving the Russians this lifeline. Right. I mean, right now, let's be clear. The United States is negotiating with one party, Ukraine, not with Russians. we are not really having an argument with Russia at all.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
We are offering them concessions preemptively, right? So, you know, to say that, you know, that this is the proper time to do it, unfortunately, neglects the fact that at the front, on the level of the battlefield now, Ukraine is actually doing a lot better than it was several weeks, certainly several months ago. In Turetsk, they are
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
practically encircling Russian columns who have overextended themselves. The former head of Estonia's foreign intelligence service does a daily brief. And the other day noted that about a third of Russia's glide bombs. So these are dumb bombs that become smart because of guidance systems that are in place. Very devastating to Ukrainian defenders.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
A third of the glide bombs are now being dropped in Kursk. which is Russia bombing Russia to expel the Ukrainians from the enclave that they took back in August, right? That's relieved some of the pressure. And also, the nature of this war has changed rather dramatically from 2022, 2023.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
You know, I'm going to upset some artillery specialists, including a good friend of mine when I say this, but artillery is not necessarily king any longer. What the Ukrainians are relying on increasingly are drones. This is a proper revolution in modern technologically savvy warfare.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
So they have manufactured at scale these first person view drones, which are making up for their lack of air superiority and also their manpower shortages. And you don't have to take my word for it. Look at what the Russians themselves are saying on Telegram. The drones are absolutely wreaking havoc on Russian positions and forcing the Russians now to slow down in their advances in Donbass.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
So at a moment like this, where it's actually not that bad, much less catastrophic as it seemed it was going to be several months ago, we are saying, well, whatever we can do to help the Russians and grant them all the terrain that they've taken and possibly even more in some negotiation seems to me ludicrous, right? Yeah. You apply more pressure now, you don't relieve it on the adversary.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
But of course, we don't treat the Russians as adversaries. We treat them as the best friend we just haven't made yet. Ukraine is our adversary.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Well, If you look at the immediate reaction to Trump's election in November, it wasn't nearly as ecstatic and celebratory as it had been in 2016. And that's because the Russians understood that, well, wait a minute, we didn't get everything we wanted out of the first Trump administration, as he himself is fond of boasting. I provided javelins to the Ukrainians. I sanctioned Nord Stream 2.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
His administration expelled more Russian spies from embassies and missions in the United States than at any point since the Cold War over the Skripal poisoning. So they were very cautious. Now, I think they are hugging themselves with glee because not only is there a strategic realignment in favor of Russia happening by the United States, but it is happening so precipitously.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And to their minds, and I think to the minds of a that they almost can't keep up. They don't even know what to do to be the proper beneficiary of all this largesse and good graces coming from Washington.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Exactly. I think that if I'm sitting in the Kremlin or the aquarium, which is the GRU headquarters, my main concern right now would be, and I don't mean to be giving the enemy advice, but I'm adjourned. I don't know that we're a ton of Russian listeners to the pod. My main concern would be trying to stop Europe from playing the spoiler role.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
that it has already begun to play and has in its capacity to play in a major key. So my argument has been to the Europeans and especially to the Ukrainians, listen, don't assume that Trump has all the cards. It's always casino metaphors, right? He doesn't. What he needs right now is, you know, Ukraine exists for him as one of two things.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Either it is an opportunity to advance his pivot toward Russia, his embrace of Russia, his bringing Russia in from the cold, or it's an obstacle to that. Right now he sees it as an obstacle. And that's a good thing because if Ukraine and Europe... by which I really mean the European Union, plus Britain, plus Norway, plus Canada, also plus Australia, and to some extent, Japan.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
I mean, the West in the collective imagination, as it were. If they are a united front, if they form a real coalition at the diplomatic and diplomatic you know, rhetorical level even. And they say to the United States, you try to impose some Fugazi deal on this war, we're going to say no, and we will keep it going. We will sustain it. We will finance it. We will send weapons.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And by the way, you know, You have an economic incentive not to punish Europe. I mean, everyone's like, what is he going to do? Tariffs on Europe? Is he going to tell the U.S.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
military industrial complex and the defense contractors that their biggest marketplace is now off limits because the French and the Brits might turn around and take attackums and Patriot batteries and just donate them to the Ukrainians? Good luck, babe. I mean, look at the lobbying effort that is going to be put in in this country to stop him from doing that. Right.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
So Trump needs to deliver something. He cannot give the Russians something and if not everything in exchange for nothing, because as much as he's OK with appearing a lick spittle to Putin. He doesn't want to look like a chump, right? This is the art of the deal guy. Maybe too late for that, but yeah. Well, yeah, but you know, he needs to sell something, right?
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Right now he's desperately trying to sell his base on, I can bring peace. Everyone else has brought war and destruction. There was peace when I was president. Only I can bring peace again. If he does not bring peace, because the terms of his peace are terms of conditional surrender by Ukraine unnecessarily. So then he's got nothing to show for it.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
They have the GDP to do it very easily. The question is, it's one of will, right? So the equipment shortages, the shortfall in manufacturing, all of these things can be made up for if they do what now they are beginning to make noises about having to do, increase their percent of GDP on defense spending. You know, this is another thing that we should discuss.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
For now, going back almost a decade, MAGA has been banging on about Europe as the welfare queen of NATO and bunch of freeloaders. They don't spend their fair share. We have to do everything for them. Suddenly, faced with this sort of existential crisis, this upending of 80 years of the post-war American-led security architecture, they say, we're all going to spend more.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Maybe they're not spending enough more, but they're moving in the right direction. And what happens? Rick Grinnell takes to Twitter, they're a bunch of anti-American warmongers. No, they're doing exactly what you've been saying as ambassador to Germany, among other things that they ought to be doing. Right.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
They're just doing it in contravention of the broader policy that you have, which is, again, make nice with Moscow.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Absolutely. And so here's an interesting statistic. I'm actually going to give two versions of it because it's a little bit ambiguous. But the one version that was cited in the Wall Street Journal recently is even more optimistic for the argument I'm making. But let me let me use a version that came from a Ukrainian security official that we quoted in our piece.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
According to him, what Ukraine relies on militarily is 40 percent manufactured domestically in Ukraine. Right. 30 percent comes from the United States. Another 30 percent comes from Europe. And according to him, even if the United States cuts us off completely, it'll be bad and there'll be things that we can't source so easily. But it ain't the end of the world. Right.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
The Russians might take more territory a little more quickly, but we're not looking at a collapse of Kiev in two weeks or a month or even necessarily six months. Right. Right. Right. Right. which is keeping the Russians at bay at the front line. That's just raw materials.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
That's stuff that can be bought on commercial markets or just investing in Ukraine's own manufacturing capability, which is growing exponentially all the time. That's the first set of statistics. The Wall Street Journal had a piece which cited, and they didn't give a source for it, but they said, actually, it's 55%. is coming from inside Ukraine already.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And then the remainder comes from the Europeans and the Americans. So just to put things in perspective, and this is another lie that Maga likes to tell, that we have given more than the Europeans. No, we haven't. Not only have we not given more than the Europeans, they have outspent us, especially in the last year when we had our supplemental freeze for six to eight months.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
But the Ukrainians themselves are standing up on their own two feet. Remember, in the Soviet period, this was the industrial hub of the Soviet Union, where all the components for their ICBMs and their tanks and everything came from Ukraine. This is not a country that lacks for engineers or technical know-how. They need money and they need, of course, the security to continue to build.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
In fact, one of the more interesting quotes in our piece comes from the CEO of Rheinmetall, Which, by the way, if you look at the stocks of European defense companies, they have gone straight through the roof in the last few weeks. Because, again, you know, American betrayal is good for business abroad.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
The CEO of Ryan Mattel said, you know, our problem isn't manufacturing more stuff here in Germany. Ironically, it's Ukrainian bureaucracy has kept us from opening new plants and factories on sovereign Ukrainian soil. So everybody's kind of in Europe rubbing their hands, seeing opportunities.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
It's about lifting some of these breaks and these obstacles in place, which are all political and bureaucratic, and allowing this production to commence. So the short answer to your question is I do think that Europe has a lot more capability than perhaps it itself would like to claim it does.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
I think his instinct is correct, which is he kind of sees the writing on the wall. I mean, I spoke to a high level source in Ukrainian intelligence just this morning to get us in what he's like, look, you guys are, you're pivoting to Russia full stop. Um, They're very clear eyed about this.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Yeah, I mean, they can't afford to rationalize and have sort of on air, you know, back and forth. And Trump is playing, you know, four dimensional chess and he's doing business. No, no, you're moving to Russia. And I think Zelensky's instinct is to say, we have lost the United States. We have to consolidate our friends who are in Europe.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And they have it more and more of a vested interest because this is happening on their doorstep. The problem is... You know, the old order is disappearing and vanishing, but we quote Alexander Herzen's greatest Russian philosopher who says, you know, when the old order dies, it leaves not an heir, but a pregnant widow.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And I think Europe now finds itself in this state of both being severely traumatized in the last weeks and also accidentally knocked up. And what is it about to give birth to here? Its own security, autonomy, or strategic autonomy, as Macron puts it. I think Zelensky is inclined to say that's the direction we need to go.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
But Starmer, Macron, Maloney, these people are saying, no, no, you have to make nice with Trump, if only just to kind of buy some breathing space and time. And so what does he do? He tweets just now and read this carefully.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
does not apologize he says it is regrettable what happened in the oval office emphasizing the importance of the ukrainian-american relationship and then he says what we are prepared to do is a truce in the sky and at sea as a preliminary for a ceasefire a proper you know ceasefire at the front meaning guns go down you know on land this idea comes from the brits and the french
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
So I read this as Zelensky's counteroffer to Trump rather than his capitulation to Trump, which is interesting because I think what Trump and MAGA want is this guy to get down on all fours and just bow down and say, yes, master, whatever you want, because then he's cowed and the Russians will see he's cowed and the Russians will just simply do a deal with Washington. He's not prepared to do that.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And I think he's being smart.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
This is what you say about a dictator whose regime you've just toppled. We're prepared to offer you amnesty or safe haven in some... I mean, it's insane. Musk, again. And it's hard to say these words, and it's much harder for people to fathom the implications of it. But our partners, our friends, our allies are now to be treated...
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
as adversaries and enemies right and it didn't just start with ukraine you know we were prepared we were flirting with going to war with denmark over greenland you know canada we're going to annex canada we're going to diminish the prime minister right now yeah yeah of a nato ally and a five eyes member and refer to him as governor you know it's like locker room abasement humiliation nothing actually for harm for nothing it's not even like we're getting a good deal out of it
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
We had a market crash. Musk has now I think he he agreed or retweeted somebody who said we should get out of NATO. You begin to see the writing on the wall here. The transatlantic relationship is dead. And, you know, whatever Trump says tonight, I don't think there's a country in this alliance, which is the greatest defensive alliance ever constructed in the history of mankind.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
There's not a country in this alliance who believes that if they were invaded tomorrow, American troops would come to the rescue under this president. I think Article 5 is dead, at least for the time being.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
I spoke also to my friend Dan Fried, ambassador to Poland, institution at the State Department, architect of sanctions, knows on a first-name basis every signatory of that letter. And I said, you know, the most impressive thing about that letter is was for Valesa to draw moral equivalence between the president of the United States and the Polish secret police under communism.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
He said, yeah, that struck me as kind of arresting as well. That's not something that's glibly or lightly done by the leader of solidarity. Yeah. In fact, I don't like it when Americans say, you know, well, this is like Stalinism, man. No. But when a Pole says, who basically led his country out from under the yoke of Soviet totalitarianism or domination, says this. You have to sit back and wonder.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And I see this as a double-blasted shotgun firing to the face of any remaining Reaganites in the Republican Party. Whether or not they're in Perda or they're living in some underground, I don't know. But they can't have missed this.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Lil Marco needs to find his big boy pants at some point or resign. If he's just going to go along with this, he doesn't believe a word of what he's saying. I mean, the look of him, he was like sinking so far into that couch. It was like that episode of Always Sunny in Philadelphia where Danny DeVito literally pops out of the couch fabric. I mean, it was humiliating for him.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And now he has to get up on cable news and say the same nonsense.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Well, I mean, I'm not read into exactly what we're doing at the offensive cyber level against Russia. I would hope it'd be quite a lot, given what they're doing to us. But, you know, one of the key components of this program is, as I said, espionage, which is very important.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
I mean, you do that even when you're in a mode of detente or you're trying to make nice because you want to know what the other side's thinking. It worries me, assuming this reporting is accurate, that we're basically choosing to become... blind and deaf to what our adversary is thinking.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
I'm also hearing very alarming things from CIA, FBI that, you know, whilst we might still collect on Russia, we're not necessarily going to do analysis on that collection. Just recently, the FBI SAC in the New York field office was forced to retire. Now, this guy is a counterintelligence specialist, which if you're based in New York means you focus mostly on Russia.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
The Russians have a huge outsized presence here in New York because of the United Nations and because of the consulate. And Riverdale is, you know, they do their own signals, intelligence collections from that part of the Bronx. And they have spies running around, going to fancy restaurants and meeting with their agents and all that.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
So suddenly it seems like we don't want to know what the Russians are doing to us. which is highly suspicious to say the least.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
Right. And that is gratuitous. If you want to have some kind of deal or some kind of grand bargain with the Russians, you still don't do that. I mean, we didn't stop spying on the Iranians when we entered into the nuclear deal, right? In fact, we probably escalated our espionage to figure out what it is that they were thinking so we could better negotiate with them.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
This is bizarre and very, very scary. And I can't emphasize that point enough. I mean, you know, it's one thing if you're not particularly concerned about what's happening in Europe, although I would suggest you should be. It's another to not care what's happening on your own planet. home turf with a hostile intelligence act.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
I mean, the largest cyber attack in history was perpetrated by the GRU, Russian military intelligence. It was called NotPetya.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
It was a piece of malware first uploaded to computer servers in Ukraine, but it spread like wildfire around the world, cost billions of dollars in damages to global commerce, and also affected hospital computers in Pennsylvania, where patients awaiting life-saving surgeries had their records deleted or frozen. So this is what the Russians do to us all the time.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
And suddenly we're like, yeah, it'll be all right. Don't worry. We don't need to check in on this.
The Bulwark Podcast
James Carville and Michael Weiss: The Whole Country Could Go Under
I told my wife I was coming on and she put the curtain over the birds. She's had to put the curtain over my head just so I'll go to sleep in the last few days. I'm sure. She's got a lot of practice keeping things quiet.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
I don't think the US government is quite sure of that, to be honest. You're seeing a lot of contradictory lines of communication. And I think it's indicative of just sort of how Amateur, the current lineup is. Hegseth, from what I've been able to report so far, was not cleared to give the statement he gave, which sort of blew back in his face. He's had to walk it back.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
It's been repudiated by other members of the administration.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Yeah, well, evidently, the original draft of what Hegseth was going to say alluded to the Istanbul deal in the early part of the war, which the Russians keep citing as evidence that the Ukrainians missed an opportunity to end the war. Complete Fugazi nonsense. It was really bad.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
And I'm hearing it was actually DOT staffers, many of them from Koch-funded think tanks, who ended up drafting this thing. I mean, Hegseth is a guy who strikes me, he probably thought NATO was a type of mezcal before his confirmation hearing, right? I mean, not the sharpest tool in the shed and very easily manipulated in running one of the largest entities in the world, which is the Pentagon.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Yeah, Trump too, saying a lot of strange and unpleasant and alarming things. I mean, my European friends are like, oh, so he wants to cut American military spending in half. which would make the percentage of America's GDP that is spent on defense something like 1.68%. Meanwhile, he wants all NATO allies to spend 5%. So that's, you know, physician heal thyself.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
And then he wants the burden to, of course, be passed to the Europeans to sustain a war that he also says is going to be wrapped up in short order with a beautiful peace deal that nobody knows the contours or details of because I don't think he does. But I mean, Hegseth's
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
amateur rookie mistake was to offer everything up to the Russians that they want, by the way, in advance of even entering into negotiations. So, you know, foreclosing on the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, it's an open secret that Ukraine is not going to be in NATO in the short or midterm, right?
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Biden says the future of Ukraine is in NATO, but at the Vilnius summit several summers ago, Ukrainians were hopping mad that there was no credible path for accession, right? That's an obvious thing. He says that Ukraine cannot claw back all the territory it controlled in 2014. Well, President Zelensky has essentially said the same thing. And that's also that's not even an open secret.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
That's just accepted reality. But again, you don't articulate these things publicly and affirm them publicly. before you enter into what is going to be a very prolonged and possibly nasty and, you know, arduous set of negotiations with the Russians. So the Russians, I think, were kind of rubbing their hands with glee about this. But now you have this weird stuff happening. J.D. Vance.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
And he's probably not even aware of what concessions could be wrung from Russia. There are a couple of things that are happening right now which make all of this incredibly ill-timed. The first is there are Republicans who are putting forth a suite of possible sanctions against Russia that would really hammer Russia.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
the energy economy, I mean, basically destroy Russia's economy even more so than it has been already, right? If Biden administration sanctions were a six out of 10, this would ratchet it up to about an eight or nine out of 10.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
This is probably something that the Trump administration will not do, but at least they could use it as a cudgel or as a threat that if you do not meet us to the point at which we need to be met for any kind of negotiations, we have this at our disposal, right? Nobody's talking about that. The second thing is that actually the Russians are performing quite poorly right now on the battlefield.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
They are slowing down in the pace of their advance in Donbass. I'm hearing reports, credible reports from Ukrainian officers in the field that their rate of fires is dramatically reduced along the contact line. So basically, they're not... bombing, they're not hitting the Ukrainians with artillery anymore.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Whether or not this is a hiccup that gets adapted and goes away on the Russian side, or whether or not it's indicative of something more systemic and problematic in their war machinery, I don't know. But it seems like now's the time to pause and maybe wait and find out. before we start giving the store away for free. And, you know, keep in mind, Putin doesn't just want a U.S.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
president to say Ukraine will not be a NATO. Biden kind of sort of came close, and before the full-scale invasion, that administration was essentially offering that to the Russian side as a way to deter or stop them from invading. Putin has been around long enough, several presidents on the American side.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
He wants a treaty, which means he wants it ratified by Congress that essentially Russia gets a veto on NATO expansion, that they will not incorporate more countries. That's not going to happen in Congress, even under this current GOP, right? But suddenly, you know, we are... bending over backwards to try and convince the Russians that Ukraine will not be in NATO ever. We shouldn't be doing that.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
We should be using the very kind of slowness of our own political machinery as an advantage on our side of the ledger. We're not doing that either. So it's a very bizarre kind of time to sort of insist that Ukraine be wrapped up here. The third point I should make And this comes right from the mind of Tucker Carlson, who has made a few trips to Russia.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
It is absolutely one of the demands of the Kremlin, is that Ukraine have elections. They do not want Zelensky, the wartime president, to remain wartime president.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
They think, and this I think is more suggestive of how the Russians completely misread the Ukrainian body politic, which landed them in this mess of invading when they thought the entire population would greet them as liberators and go over to their side.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
They think that they can install through their bag of dirty tricks, election interference, political warfare, a more pliant asset in Kyiv who will certify any deal that essentially seeds the sovereignty of the country over to Russia. Zelensky is still, I think, the most favored candidate in whatever polling is being conducted now.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
But all that to one side, there is no Ukrainian politician who's going to emerge to say, we must look eastward once again. There's no Yanukovych in the offing here, right? Everybody wants to be part of the EU. Everybody sees themselves as a member of the Western community. The Russians don't appreciate that fact.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
But we seem to be now suggesting, I mean, Bloomberg just had a piece today that the Trump people are telling Zelensky you have to have elections. Yeah. The sheer logistics of which are going to be quite difficult because 20% of the country is occupied.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Missiles are still landing into Kiev and Kharkiv, and you're going to have a ceasefire before, which will be kind of fitfully maintained, and then you're going to go to the polls. It doesn't make much sense, but this is another demand the Russians have.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
He would tell me if he were lying. He wouldn't do the dirty on me.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Well, I mean, I think they want to drag this out as much as possible. A de facto ceasefire or anything that lowers the temperature. is a boon for the Russians because it allowed them to regenerate their forces. It allowed them to kind of pause and reconstitute and, you know, bring new kit to the front, dial up more North Koreans that they can send into Kursk, whatever.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
I mean, but it also, frankly speaking, allowed the Ukrainians to do the same thing. I mean, Ukrainians are suffering pretty badly themselves. I mean, this is a matter of population differences. One of the big points of vulnerability for Zelensky is his refusal to,
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
to lower the draft age to 18 and bring more younger people to the – I mean you've got 40-something-year-olds, in some cases geriatrics, who are now in trenches in Donbass fighting on the Ukrainian side. So they have a problem with manpower. But ultimately, look, I think the Russians understand that this is going to be a process. Sure.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
And so what they're trying to do is set the sort of players correctly such that they can get the maximum concessions from the American side. They don't really believe in negotiating with Ukrainians at all. Remember, Ukraine has no agency. It practically does not exist as a sovereign entity unto itself. For them, this is really a war with the United States and NATO.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
So they want to talk only to Washington. And who do they want to talk to? So I think it was interesting. There was some misreporting that, you know, Kellogg, the special envoy to Ukraine, was was not going to Munich at all. When Trump did his Truth Social post about this, you know, sort of the preliminaries of this discussion, he did not mention Kellogg. Witkoff
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
His buddy, a fellow billionaire, the guy who got the American school teacher released by the Russian side, that's all purposive. The Russians see Witkoff as their man, not because he's necessarily pro-Russian, but he doesn't understand anything about this part of the world. He's completely green, whereas Kellogg lives, breathes, and speaks Ukraine-Russia 24-7. That's his portfolio.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
To the Russian mind, I mean, Witkoff is just another oligarch boyar who is surrounded by the czar on the American side.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Yeah, I mean, it's a political system that is governed by cronyism and backscratching. And so, yeah. But Witkoff, they think, especially with the sweetener of this unexpected exchange of, you know, on our side, we had a crypto grifting criminal that we gave to the Russians and they had a school teacher hostage. They think that they've now incentivized Trump to to play nice.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
And by all accounts, he is, you know, again, he trusts Putin, arguably more so than he does his own ministers and his own intelligence.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Right. And expecting Europe to essentially shoulder. By the way, I mean, Europe does spend almost as much as we do on Ukraine. And if you measure it in both military and humanitarian assistance, I think you could even come up with a figure that's greater than what the U.S. is doing. So this is nonsense. Look, I'm an advocate for every NATO member to meet the 3% threshold for defense spending.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
I think it's a good idea. The Europeans have been talking about this recently. Since time immemorial, I mean, it was part of Macron's sort of – what did he call it? His sovereign hegemony. He changed the term of art multiple times. But the idea of Europe being able to defend itself outside of the American security umbrella is a good one, and especially it's a good one now that America is –
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
you know, fast becoming the Venezuela of North America. You know, we're not, we might not be able to do things that we used to do before.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
And a lot of Europeans are very much in favor of this, which is why literally a few hours ago, Van der Leyen announced at Munich that she's going to propose activating the escape clause for defense investments, which will allow European countries to spend even more on defense. And that would, of course, help sustain the war in Ukraine.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
But we've discussed before, and I want to reiterate this because it's very important. There is this grand misconception, and it is especially lapped up by the MAGA types, that the way that American Security Assistance for Ukraine works is pallets of cash on transport planes delivered to Kiev. Zelensky pockets half of it, buys yachts in the Mediterranean or whatever.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Look, we spend the money here in the United States. The vast, overwhelming majority of the money that has been allocated for Ukraine gets invested in the U.S. It opens factories to manufacture artillery shells, weapon systems, modernizing our own arsenal, hiring American workers. It used to be a MAGA conceit that, you know, put the money here and bring our own proletariat up from its knees.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
All these things get met with security assistance to Ukraine. And the best part is the stuff we end up giving them are old, outdated weapon systems. They still work, and they still work a lot better than Russia's state-of-the-art weaponry. They're all too grateful to receive them. And then we end up revitalizing and modernizing our own military.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
The American Enterprise Institute also did a recent study that showed what would happen Ukraine were to lose the war and Russia were to conquer this country in terms of America's defense posture in Europe.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Now, assuming that we have any interest whatsoever in the defense posture in Europe and that we're part of NATO and that, you know, we want to have a deterrent capability, they calculated it would cost $808 billion to the American taxpayer over the course of the next five years.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
an increase in $808 billion to essentially get our house in order in terms of air defense, sea defense, personnel, logistics, all the things that would have to be brought to bear to Europe because the border that NATO would share with Russia would grow exponentially as a result of Ukraine's defeat. Yeah.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
So if you approach this purely from utilitarian accounting, that assumes that they would then decide that they would want to defend that whole border. If you're a businessman, this is the greatest investment you can possibly make because and I don't mean to be cynical here. And the Ukrainians make this argument too. We're not fighting a war with our strategic adversary. They are.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
We're helping them. We are bleeding Russia dry on a European battlefield such that Russia cannot invade another ally, a NATO ally, thus triggering Article 5, thus bringing the United States into a shooting war with Russia. And at the same time, we are – Upgrading our own arsenal. What's not to like about this if all you care about is the money?
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
I purposefully leave aside the moral imperative and the values and all the bright shining city on a hill stuff because most people that we're trying to persuade don't even care about that. They just want to know what's in it for me. What do we get out of this? The answer is you get it quite a lot. You just don't realize it.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Well, I'm old enough to remember when spending money on Ukraine meant we weren't spending enough on Taiwan to defend them from the imminent and inevitable Chinese invasion, yeah? So now all of a sudden, Taiwan is our enemy or our rival, taking our jobs. They annoy us. Stealing our microprocessing industry, and they annoy us. So that doesn't sound like we're coming to their defense either.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
I mean, look, you have a guy who... fundamentally, he doesn't care about allies. He doesn't even really care about national or strategic interests. He cares about transactions. What's in it for me? What am I getting out of this? Everything else is just a dodge or a hustle, or he thinks that we're being taken for a ride and all these other countries, they're the welfare queens of Pax Americana.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
He doesn't understand the implications of just forfeiting you know, our role in the world and allowing these countries to be gobbled up by their regional adversaries who then become, of course, and are already actually America's strategic adversaries.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
So it doesn't surprise me, given his style and his mode of thinking, you know, the countries that he tends to get on with the best, he would love to get on with Putin and Russia. There are some hurdles in the way here, but we've been discussing what they are. He loves Erdogan and Turkey.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Because Erdogan has sort of managed democracy such that he's sort of the president slash dictator in perpetuity, right? And he likes what Turkey has done, which is taken over Syria because Bashar al-Assad pissed off the sultan. He can get along with a guy like that. He likes Netanyahu. And Netanyahu sure loves him. I mean, you know... Taj Mahal, Khan Yunus, David Petraeus as pit boss in Gaza.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
I mean, what's not to like there, right? Like riverfront property, the new Riviera in the most volatile and hostile piece of real estate in the Middle East.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Never smiled so wide when he saw that. And Viktor Orban as well, who has managed to do the same kind of state capture in Hungary, although he's small beer because Hungary doesn't matter to the extent that these other countries do. Those are the only people who sort of likes the cut of their jib.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Everybody else is like, all right, show me where on this dotted line I get what I want out of this, right? And the Ukrainians, to their credit, I think, have begun trying to play to some of these personality defects and this sort of egomania. You'll notice Axios had a write-up of the Trump-Zelensky call. And it's a minor point, but it's, I think, kind of evocative of the way
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
The Ukrainians now see the lay of the land. It says Zelensky told Trump at the end of the call, he would give him a championship belt from Ukrainian heavyweight boxer Oleksandr Usyk. Right. It was like, oh, I'm going to get a beautiful belt. You know, it's like Muhammad Ali's belt. It's coming from Ukraine. As I, you know, the next step, I'm not kidding. The next step is Ukraine.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
extremely hot Ukrainian women in a delegation to the White House.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Rare earth minerals, lithium, and all the stuff that goes into microprocessing. That idea came from Ron Lauder, by the way, who also gave him the idea, why don't we take Greenland? Because why the hell not? What's Greenland and who lives there? Again, it's like his business... men friends, fellow oligarchs, tell him, hey, this is, you know, what I would do in your position.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Let's talk about hostile takeovers, you know. It's like a, you know... That Danny DeVito movie from the 80s, Other People's Money. That's how Trump is governing as president.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
And just to, again, to underscore kind of the willy-nilly nature of all this, because you really don't... People are very sure about what's going to happen. I'm not so sure because I don't know... You know, who's got the president's ear or what kind of impression has been made. I mean, to send out J.D. Vance, who is the most hostile to Ukraine person in the U.S. government.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
His staff really hate Ukraine.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Not only I'll give you an anecdote. I know some dyed in the wool, hardcore Republicans who were fine with Trump. When he picked Vance as a running mate, I got calls, vote for Biden, vote for Biden, vote for Biden. Why? It's like, oh, his staff, particularly James Braid, his legislative director, like these guys are like crazy, like beyond Cato Institute, libertarian isolationists.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
They think sanctions on Iran are escalatory. We can't get anything done with these people, right? So Vance they saw as the real ideal. So now he sends J.D. Vance out after Hegseth steps on his own crank and Vance goes – We might go to war with Russia if they don't do what we want. Well, hang on a minute. You were the guy who said, I don't care what happens to Ukraine.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
Now you say all options are off the table with the Russians. Now, I get it.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
So you wanted me to do criminology on the Russian side. If I do criminology on the American side, I think they sent this guy to say this so they can kind of appear tough to a domestic audience. But the Russians really understand that J.D. Vance doesn't believe a word of what he's saying. Right. So this is all just face saving for Trump.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
The shafts of light here are Ukraine does get a say in its own future and fortune, right? Everybody who asked me about, well, what's their sovereignty of the United States? Remember, according to the United States, Ukraine should not exist right now. Even under the Biden administration, they had three days.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
You know, until Kiev was toast, two weeks until the entire country was conquered by the Russian army. And they fought back. They did what we told them they couldn't do. And they succeeded. So they're clever and they're innovative and they'll find ways to resist. Number two, if the Europeans really are serious about saving this country, which they should be, not everything Trump says is wrong.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
When he says this affects Europe more than it affects us, he's right. It's on their doorstep. So the problem is they have to get their act together, particularly the Germans.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
But even without the Germans, I mean, if you look at the coalition of the most hawkish pro-Ukraine countries who have given orders of magnitude, you know, by proportion of weapons and money, you've got all the Scandinavian countries, you've got Russia.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
sweden you've got denmark which has emptied its stocks of artillery howitzers the baltic states my friends in estonia i mean their intelligence has single-handedly frankly helped keep survive in the early days of the war they're the ones that told them about the air bridge that was being brought over by the russian side the polls aren't going anywhere the brits are fine tory labor they compete with each other to be more pro-ukraine
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
you actually have a pretty good assemblage of nations, all NATO members, by the way, that can help this country survive and fight back. So I understand the inclination toward pessimism, if not catastrophism. But the good news is, you know, America as kind of a fallen or dilapidated power has empowered others to realize that they kind of have to take fortune into their own hands, as it were.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
And they need Plan B and Plan C. One of the odd things about this election, and I think I mentioned this on the show the last time, is Europeans were not as aggrieved and panic stricken as a lot of Americans were. They thought it was inevitable Trump was going to come back. And there have been things in place for the last four years that anticipated this contingency.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
So I'm not trying to be Pollyanna-ish about this. I'm not. But I do think that, you know, we should not be writing Ukraine's obituary so prematurely.
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
As I'm talking to you, my daughter just left on a weekend holiday to Maine with her best friend from school and their parents. I've got two squawking budgies in I don't know what room. We have to move them around because my golden doodle...
The Bulwark Podcast
Andrew Weissmann and Michael Weiss: Valentine's Massacre
who has gone from 10 pounds to 40 pounds in the space of like six weeks and whose permanent teeth magically came in overnight, like overnight oats, he terrifies the birds. So I have a menagerie that's deeply dysfunctional and at odds with itself in this house and a lot of stuff going on here. And, you know, thanks for being patient. I'm sorry for the background noise, but no, it's,